نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 کارشناسی ارشد ریاضی مالی

چکیده

بخش نفت به عنوان مهم‌ترین بخش اقتصادی کشور، نقش بسزایی در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی کشور داشته و از همین رو، همواره به صورت ویژه‌ای از سوی مدیران و تصمیم‌گیران کلان کشور مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. سرمایه‌گذاری در این بخش، باعث می‌شود تا ظرفیت و پتانسیل‌های آن بالفعل شده و سبب سریز شدن آثار آن بر سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی کشور گردد. در یک تقسیم‌بندی‌ کلی، عوامل تاثیرگذار بر سرمایه‌گذاری را می‌توان به دو دسته حقیقی و پولی تقسیم کرد. در این پژوهش، سعی شده تا تأثیر شوک‌های مربوط به نرخ ارز و قیمت نفت بعنوان شوک‌های پولی و شوک‌های تولید ناخالص داخلی و ارزش افزوده بخش نفت بعنوان شوک‌های حقیقی بر سرمایه‌گذاری بخش نفت مورد بررسی قرار ‌گیرد. برای انجام این مهم، از رویکرد خود رگرسیون‌برداری بیزین (BVAR) و داده سال‌های 99-1357 استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تابع واکنش آنی، نشان می‌هد که شوک‌های تولید ناخالص داخلی، ارزش افزوده و قیمت نفت، اثر مثبتی بر سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش نفت داشته و در این بین، شوک ناشی از تولید ناخالص داخلی، بیشترین اثر را دارد. همچنین شوک نرخ ارز در ابتدا، اثر انقباضی بر سرمایه‌گذاری این بخش داشته و بعد از دو دوره زمانی، میزان سرمایه‌گذاری افزایش پیدا می‌کند.

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