نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

چکیده
امروزه بازارهای مالی یکی از اساسی­ترین بازارهای هر کشور است و شرایط این بازارها به‌شدت بر بخش­های واقعی اقتصاد اثرگذار است. به­طورکلی عوامل مؤثر بر بازار سهام به دو دسته عوامل بیرونی (عوامل اقتصادی و عوامل سیاسی) و عوامل درونی (فعالیت­ها و تصمیمات شرکت­ها) تقسیم‌بندی می­شوند. در این پژوهش، عوامل اقتصادی و رفتاری اثرگذار بر تلاطم‌های شاخص قیمت سهام در بازار بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در دوره زمانی بهار 1383 تا زمستان 1399 با استفاده از الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه­های گسترده بررسی شده است. نتایج برآورد بلندمدت بیانگر این است که رشد قیمت نفت اوپک، رشد نرخ ارز و رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی اثر مثبت و شاخص احساسات سرمایه­گذاران (شاخص آرمز) و رشد قیمت مسکن اثر منفی و معناداری با رشد شاخص قیمت سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران دارند. همچنین، حاصل‌ضرب شاخص احساسات سرمایه­گذاران و متغیر مجازی خروج آمریکا از برجام و شیوع ویروس کرونا اثر مثبت بر رشد شاخص قیمت سهام بورس اوراق بهادار تهران داشته­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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