نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 تربیت مدرس

2 بوعلی سینا

3 دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ایران

چکیده

هدف این مطالعه، بررسی اهمیت اعتبارات بانکی در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی است. در ادبیات مربوطه اعتبارات بانکی می‌تواند بر رشد اقتصادی تأثیرگذار باشد و به دلیل عدم وجود بازارهای مالی توسعه‌یافته در ایران، چگونگی تخصیص اعتبارات بانکی در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی کشور اهمیت می‌یابد. در اکثر مطالعات انجام شده پیرامون موضوع از روش‌های متعارف نظیر آزمون علیت گرنجری، آزمون تصحیح خطای برداری و آزمون ARDL استفاده شده است؛ در مطالعه حاضر برای تحلیل روابط پویا میان اعتبارات بانکی و رشد اقتصادی در بخش های نفتی و غیر نفتی و نیز برای فائق آمدن به مشکل پایین بودن درجه آزادی، از یک رهیافت شبه بیزی بهره گرفته شده است. نوع الگوی اطلاعات پیشین می‌تواند نتایج آزمون را مستقیماً تحت تأثیر قرار دهد که برای پیش‌گیری از رگرسیون کاذب، پس از تعیین الگوی بهینه اطلاعات پیشین، تحلیل نتایج و ارائه مدل‌های مناسب رشد انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می دهند تسهیلات اعطایی، رشد اقتصادی در بخش غیر نفتی اقتصاد ایران را بیشتر تحت تأثیر قرار می‌دهد که در این میان بیشترین رشد ناشی از تسهیلات اعطایی مربوط به بخش کشاورزی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

[1]Abonori, A. and Teymori, M. (2013). The effect of financial development on economic growth: Comparison between OECD countries and UMI. Journal of economic growth and development; 3(11): 29-40 (In Persian)
[2]Adeniyia O, Oyinlolaa A, Omisakinb O, Egwaikhide F.O (2016). Financial development and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from threshold modeling. Economic Analysis and Policy 47(6): 11–21.
[3]Akimov, A., & Dollery, B. (2007). Financial systemreform in Kazakhstan from1993 to 2006 and its socioeconomic effects. EmergingMarkets Finance and Trade, 44, 81–97.
[4]Amini.SH, Parmeter.C.F, (2011). BAYESIAN MODEL AVERAGING. Department of Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
[5]Amir azodi, A. and Mohamadi, H. (2010). Analysis of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the agricultural sector. Journal of Economic Policy; 18(53): 45-58 (In Persian)
[6]Asari,A. Naseri, A. and Aghaee, M. (2007). Financial Development and Economic Growth: A comparable OPEC oil countries and non-oil developing countries, using GMM. Journal of Economic research; 8(82): 141-162 (In Persian)
[7]Asadi, Z. and Bahrami, J. (2013). Impact of resource curse phenomenon on financial development and economic growth, a dynamic panel model. Journal of economic growth and development; 3(10): 9-26(In Persian).
[8]Bakwena, M., Bodman, P., & Sandy, S. (2008). Making abundant natural resources work for developing economies: The role of financial institutions. MRG Discussion Paper No. 2108, Macroeconomic Research Group. Australia: University of Queensland.
[9] Bakwena, M., & Bodman, P. (2010). The role of financial development in natural resource abundant economies: Does the nature of the resource matter? Botswana Journal of Economics, 7(1), 16–31.
[10]Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261–300.
[11]Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2003). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28, 423–442.
[12]Beck, T. (2009). The econometrics of finance and growth. In Terence Mills, & Kerry Patterson (Eds.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 2, : PalgraveMacmillan.
[13]Beck, T. (2011). Finance and oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development? Unpublished working paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
[14]Bekaert, G., & Harvey, C. (1998). Capital markets: An engine for economic growth. The Brown Journal of World Affairs, 5, 33–53.
[15]Calderon, C., & Liu, L. (2002). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Central Bank of Chile, Working Papers N° 184 (October).
[16]Carlin, B.P. and Chib, S. (1995). Bayesian Model Choice via Markov Chain Monte Carlo. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., Ser. B 57, 473–484.
[17]Christopoulos, D., & Tsionas, E. (2004). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from panel unit root and co-integration tests. Journal of Development Economics, 73, 55–74.
[18]Dawson, P. J. (2003). Financial development and growth in economies in transition. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 833–836.
[19]Eicher, T. S., Papageorgiou, C. & Raftery, A. E. (2011). Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging with application to growth determinants. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26, 30:55.
[20]Eschenbach, F. (2004). Finance and growth: A survey of the theoretical and empirical literature. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-039/2. Tinbergen Institute.
[21]Fahim, F. and Falihi,N. (2001). Monetary and financial policy impacts on the industry in the past 25 years. Journal of Economic; 2(8): 199-217..
[22]Fink, G., Haiss, P., & Vuksic, G. (2004). Contribution of financial market segments at different stages of development: Transition, cohesion and mature economies compared. Journal of Financial Stability; 5, 431–455.
[23]Fink, G., Haiss, P., & Mantler, H. C. (2005). The finance–growth nexus: Market economies vs. transition countries. EI Working Paper Nr. 64 (February).
[24]Figini.S & Giudici.P, (2013). Credit risk predictions with Bayesian model Averaging. Department of Economics and Management. ISSN: 2281-1346.
[25]Gelman.A & Shalizi.C.R, (2012). Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology.
[26]Geweke, Jhon, (2003 & 2005). Contemporary Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics. Departments of Economics and Statistics University of Iowa, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics. A JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., PUBLICATION.
[27]George, E., Foster, D.P., (2000). Calibration and Empirical Bayes variable selection, Biometrika, 87, 4, 731-747.
[28]Green, P. (1995). Reversible JumpMarkov ChainMonte Carlo Computation and Bayesian Model Determination. Biometrika 82, 711–732.
[29]Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. The Journal of Political Economy, 98, 1076–1107.
[30]Hanson.T.E, Branscum.A.J, Johnson.W.O, (2013). Informative g-Priors for Logistic Regression. Department of Statistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia.
[31]Hasanov.F and Huseynov.F, (2013). Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan. ELSEVIER, International Review of Economics and Finance 27 (3): 597–610.
[32]Hayek, F. A. (1933). Monetary theory and the trade cycle. Clifton, NJ: Augustus M. Kelley (Original German 1929).
[33]Jeffreys, H. (1946). An invariant form for the prior probability in estimation problems. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A, 196, 453-461.
[34] Jeffreys. H. (1961). The Theory of Probability (3 ed.). Oxford. p. 432
[35]Johnstone, I.M., and Silverman, B.W. (2004). Needles and straw in haystacks: empirical Bayes estimates of possibly sparse sequence. The Annals of Statistics, 32, 1594-1649.
[36]King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance, entrepreneurship, and growth: Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 513–542.
[37]Kumar R.R, Stauvermannb P.J, Loganathan N , Kumar R.D, (2015). Exploring the role of energy, trade and financial development in explaining economic growth in South Africa: A revisit. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews; 52(4): 1300-131.
[38]Ley, E. & Steel, M. (2009). On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression. Journal of Applied Econometrics 24(4), 651:674.
[39]Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American Economic Review, 82, 942–963.
[40]Levine, R. (1998). The legal environment, banks, and long run economic growth. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 30, 596–613.
[41]Levine, R. (2005). Finance and economic growth: Theory and evidence. In P. Aghion, & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth. The Netherlands: Elsevier Science.
[42]Liang, F., Paulo, R., Molina, G., Clyde, M. A., and Berger, J. O. (2008). Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian variable selection. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 103(481):410–423.
[43]Mankiw, N. G. (2007), Macroeconomics, 6 th Ed Worth Poblishers, PP. 271-358.
[44]Masten, B. A., Coricelli, F., & Masten, I. (2007). Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter? Journal of International Money and Finance, 27, 295–313.
[45]Monsef, A. Torki, L. and Alavi, J. (2013). Analysis of the effect of financial development on economic growth in D8 countries: Panel Granger causality bootstrap approach. Journal of economic growth and development; 3(10): 73-92(In Persian)
[46]Naderan, E. (2004). Effects of credit policy on value added of industry. Quarterly Economic Essays; 1(1):9-41(In Persian)
[47]Naderi, M. (2003). Financial development, financial crisis and economic growth. Journal of Economic; 4(15): 37-62. (In Persian)
[48]Nazifi, F. (2003). Financial development and economic growth in Iran. Journal of Economic; 5(14): 97-130. (In Persian)
[49]Nili, M., & Rastad, M. (2007). Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 726–740.
[50]Pindyck, R, S. (1979). Interfile Substitution and the Industrial Demand for Energy: An International Comparison. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 61, 161-179.
[51]Pindyck, R.S, (1979). The Structure of World Energy Demand. MIT Press, No.22,PP:309-317.
[52]Ploeg, F. V. (2011). Nature resources: Curse or blessing? Journal of Economic Literature, 49, 366–420.
[53]Rafindadi A.A, Ozturk I (2015). Effects of financial development, economic growth and trade on electricity consumption: Evidence from post-Fukushima Japan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 54(10): 1073–1084
[54]Robert.C.P, (2007). The Bayesian Choice. Springer, 75775 Paris codex 16.
[55]Rodriguez, F. (2006). The anarchy of numbers: Understanding the evidence on Venezuelan economic growth. Canadian Journal of Development Studies, 27, 503–529.
[56]Romer, P.M. (1994). The Origins of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 8(1), PP. 3-22.
[57]Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102.
[58]Salahuddina M, Gowb J, Ozturkd I (2016). Is the long-run relationship between economic growth, electricity consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and financial development in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries robust? Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2015(6): 317–326.
[59]Sameti,M. Ranjbar, H. and Hematzade, M. (2012). Assessing the impact of financial development on economic growth under asymmetric information (case studies of selected countries, developed and developing. Journal of economic growth and development; 3(9): 25-40
[60]Samsami,H. and Amirjan, R. (2011). Effects of credit on industry and mining sector. Journal of Economic Policy; 19(59): 129-150. (In Persian)
[61]Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
[62]Seyfipor,R. (2001). The effect of credit on growth of value added in industry. Journal of Economic; 1(3): 43-70. (In Persian)
[63]Shakibaee, A.R. and Ahmadlo, M. (2011). The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran Subdivision: vector error correction approach. Journal of Energy Economics; 8(30): 181-203. (In Persian).
[64]Shahbazi, K. and Saeedpor, L. (2013). Threshold effects of financial development on economic growth in D8. Journal of economic growth and development; 3(12): 21-38. (In Persian)
[65]Sims.Z.H, 1990. Nine Variable Probabillistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model. Econometrica, 58, pp.113-144.
[66]Snowdon, B, Vane, H. and Wynarczyk, P. (1995). A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought. Edward Elgar Publishing.
[67]Stiglitz.J, 1988. Money, Credit and Business Fluctuation. Economic Record.
[68]Taghavi, M. Bagheri, S.H. Mohajeri, P. (2011). The presence of a structural break in the relationship between financial development and economic growth And derive the optimal amount of credit provided to the private sector. Journal of economic growth and development; 2(4): 37-54. (In Persian)
[69]Thießen, U. (2005). Banking crises, regulation and growth: the case of Russia. Applied Economics, 37, 2191–2203.
[70]Zellner, A. (1983). Applications of Bayesian analysis in econometrics. The Statistician, 32, 23–34.
CAPTCHA Image