Iran's Exchange Rate Forecasting Using ANFIS, NNARX & ARIMA Models (2002-2008)

بافنده ایمان دوست بافنده ایمان دوست؛ فهیمی‌فرد فهیمی‌فرد؛ شیرزادی شیرزادی

دوره 16، شماره 28 ، اسفند 1388

https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v16i28.2738

چکیده
  Monetary policy makers have been engrossed continually to discover the suitable method for exchange rate forecasting in order to preventing its disruptive movements. But exchange rate movement's manifold determinants cause to its complex and nonlinear behavior. Nonlinear models have better performance for its forecasting. Therefore, in this study the performance of nonlinear models such as ANFIS and NNARX and linear model such as ARIMA were compared in Iran's Rial/US$ & Rial/€ for 2, 4 and 8 days ahead via most important forecast performance criteria and daily data related to 20 March 2002- 21 ...  بیشتر