بررسی اثرات متقارن و نامتقارن سیاست مالی و توسعه تجارت بر توسعه مالی در ایران با استفاده از مدل غیرخطی NARDL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• فهمیده فتاحی ¹
• افسانه حسین زاده ²
• صمد حکمتی فرید ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه

² کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه

³ دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2021.69254.1042

چکیده

چکیده
در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات متقارن و نامتقارن سیاست مالی و توسعه تجارت بر توسعه مالی در ایران طی دورۀ زمانی 2017-1973 پرداخته شده است. برای بررسی اثرات متقارن از روش جوهانسن- جوسیلوس استفاده شده و همچنین برای بررسی اثرات نامتقارن از رهیافت خودرگرسیو با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شد. نتایج روش متقارن نشان می­دهد که در بلندمدت، افزایش مخارج دولت و تورم اثر منفی و معنی­دار بر توسعه مالی دارند. همچنین نتایج بیانگر این است که توسعه تجارت اثر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر توسعه مالی دارد. نتایج مربوط به الگوی ECM نیز نشان می­دهد که در هر دوره 078/0 از عدم تعادل یا خطای کوتاه­مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می­شود. همچنین، نتایج روش (NARDL) نشان می‌دهد که شوک مثبت مخارج دولت اثر منفی و شوک منفی مخارج دولت اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر توسعه مالی دارد. همچنین، شوک مثبت توسعه تجارت اثر مثبت و شوک منفی توسعه تجارت اثر منفی بر توسعه مالی دارد. علاوه بر این، نتایج نشان می­دهد که تورم اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر توسعه مالی دارد. درنهایت، نتایج آزمون والد هم نشان می­دهد که اثر شوک‌های مخارج دولت و توسعه تجارت هم در کوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت نامتقارن هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• توسعه‌مالی
• سیاست مالی
• ایران
• روش جوهانسن- جوسیلوس
• NARDL

مراجع

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