نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد سلامی واحد بیله سوار، بیله سوار ، ایران

2 . دانشیار ، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران ، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار ، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران ، تهران، ایران.

4 استاد ، گروه مدیریت صنعتی ، دانشکده مدیریت دانشگاه تهران ، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
سود یکی از عوامل مهم در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی بوده و دستکاری سود هم یکی از چالش­های اساسی کارایی بازار است که محققین اغلب برای پیش‌بینی دستکاری سود از داده­های حسابداری استفاده می­کنند؛ درحالی‌که داده­های غیر­حسابداری هم نقش بسزایی در پیش­بینی دستکاری سود دارند. این پژوهش به توسعه مدل بنیش با متغیرهای غیر‎‌‌­حسابداری شامل عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی و رقابت در بازار محصول پرداخته است. داده­های 184شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس تهران طی سال­­های 1386-1396 جمع­آوری و دقت پیش­بینی مدل­های پژوهش در کشف و شناسایی شرکت­های دستکاری کننده سود با دو الگوریتم بهینه­سازی حرکت تجمعی ذرات و رقابت استعماری در ترکیب شبکه عصبی مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. یافته­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد دقت پیش­بینی مدل پیشنهادی با الگوریتم رقابت استعماری و حرکت تجمعی ذرات به ترتیب از 55/57 به 86/63 درصد و از 71/55 به 84/59 درصد افزایش یافته است. با توسعه مدل سطح زیرمنحنی راک افزایش یافته و کاهش خطای پیش­بینی در الگوریتم رقابت استعماری 31/6 درصد و در الگوریتم حرکت تجمعی ذرات 13/4 درصد است ولی همچنان نتیجه آزمون ضعیف می‌باشد. درواقع میزان دقت پیش‌بینی مدل با الگوریتم رقابت استعماری در مقایسه با الگوریتم حرکت تجمعی ذرات بهبود یافته است. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

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