پدیده ادغام جهانی نه تنها از جنبه اقتصادی بلکه از جنبههای سیاسی و اجتماعی رویدادی غیر قابل انکار می باشد که کلیه متغیرها و شاخصهای کشورها را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد. کشورهایی که نتوانند از این پدیده استقبال کنند از موهبتهای آن محروم خواهند بود. صنعت بیمه به عنوان یکی از مهمترین رئوس مثلث توسعه مالی متأثر از پدیده جهانی شدن میباشد.
بنا به اهمیت موضوع، پژوهش حاضر با بهرهگیری از رهیافت گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته، اثرات ثابت و تصادفی به بررسی تأثیر ادغام جهانی از جوانب اقتصادی، سیاسی و اجتماعی کشورها بر ضریب نفوذ بیمه، ضریب نفوذ بیمههای زندگی و ضریب نفوذ بیمههای غیرزندگی در دو گروه کشورهای توسعه یافته و کشورهای چشم انداز ایران در طول دوره 2017-1997 می پردازد.
نتایج حاصل اکیداً بر تأثیر معنیدار شاخصهای جهانیشدن بر روی ضریب نفوذ بیمه اشاره دارد. برخلاف کشورهای توسعه یافته که کلیه جوانب جهانیشدن به خصوص جهانی شدن اجتماعی بر ضریب نفوذ بیمه تأثیر دارد، در کشورهای چشم انداز ایران جهانیشدن صرفاً از بعد اقتصادی و سیاسی بیشتر ضریب نفوذ بیمه را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهد. به علت سهم بالای بیمههای زندگی در کشورهای توسعه یافته، اثر جهانی شدن بر این گروه بیمهای چشمگیرتر از کشورهای چشم انداز ایران می باشد.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Impact of Globalization on the Development of Commercial Insurance: A Comparative Study Between Perspective Countries of Iran and Developed Countries
Globalization is an undeniable phenomenon that affects all variables and indicators of countries not only economically but also politically and socially. Countries that cannot accept this phenomenon will be deprived of their blessings. The insurance industry is one of the most important outlines of the financial development triangle that is affected by the phenomenon of globalization. Over the past 30 years, globalization in business markets has developed so much that its role in the financial markets cannot be denied. The time and place barriers that insurers and reinsurers defined for themselves no longer make sense. Facilitating the process of globalization in the insurance industry allows international insurance companies to have an active presence in the markets of developed countries, especially developing countries, which warms the competition between domestic and international insurers. The phenomenon of globalization in developing countries can have different effects on the insurance industry, which can lead to the development of the insurance industry in the face of international competition or weaken the insurance industry in developing countries. Considering the importance of the subject in the present study, the effect of globalization on the insurance industry in the "developing countries of the Iran Vision Region" and "developed countries" is comparatively investigated.
Many studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of globalization indicators on economic, social, political, etc. variables, which often point to the importance of this phenomenon. Some studies have also cited this phenomenon as a threat to some developing societies. There have been few studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry that has been mentioned in the literature of the present study. . The results of this research also point to the positive and significant effects of this phenomenon on the insurance industry. Successful examples of this phenomenon in the insurance industry include the performance of large international insurance companies such as AXA and Allianz in Mena countries, which have a large share of the market in these countries. They have also led to the growth of domestic insurance companies.
The contradictory results of earlier studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry in developed countries and emerging markets show the need for the present study to see whether emerging countries stand up to this phenomenon to support the national insurance industry or, like developed countries. Pave the way for globalization. The contradictory results of earlier studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry in developed countries and emerging markets show the need for the present study. Should emerging countries stand up to globalization in order to support the national insurance industry? Or support globalization like developed countries. In the present study, using the mathematical model, the effect of globalization not only economically but also politically, socially, and in general on the penetration of insurance by life, non-life, and general insurance in the two groups of selected developed countries and groups of countries. Iran's perspective is examined.
In the present study, based on standard econometric methods such as panel data and by using Eveiws and STATA software, we estimate the model and based on the results, we propose policies to develop the insurance industry. The following mathematical models are derived from the combined economic models of studies (Chiang & Yi-Bin, 2016), (AsadiGharagoz, et al., 2017) and (Williams & Balcilar, 2020). The mathematical and conceptual model of the research is described in Table 1:
Table 1. Mathematical models of research
Globalization and the insurance industry
Globalization and life insurance
Globalization and non-life insurance
penit= β1penit-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit
lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit
np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit
penit= β1penit-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit
lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit
np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit
penit= β1penit-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit
lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit
np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit
np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit
np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit
β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit
The variables used in the above patterns are:
Insurance penetration coefficient, life insurance penetration coefficient, non-life insurance penetration coefficient, globalization indicators (general, economic, social, political) and control variables (real GDP, inflation rate, urbanization rate and population growth rate)
For developing countries, the dependent variable interrupt is eliminated and the models are considered static.
Results & Discussion
In developed countries, social globalization, general globalization, political globalization, and economic globalization have had the greatest impact on insurance penetration in general, respectively. The degree of significance of all variables of globalization in explaining the changes in the penetration rate of general insurance has been at the level of 99%. But in "Iran Vision Countries", globalization, political globalization, and economic globalization, respectively, have had the greatest impact on insurance penetration in general. Among these, economic globalization and general globalization, respectively, had the highest significance at the level of 0.95% in explaining changes in insurance penetration. Examination of the both intensity and degree of significance, we come to the conclusion that the intensity of the impact of globalization on insurance penetration in developed countries is higher than in Iran. In developed countries, the social dimension of globalization and in the perspective countries of Iran, the economic dimension of globalization has had the greatest and most significant effect on insurance penetration. By carefully examining the effect of the dimensions of globalization on the penetration rate of life and non-life insurance, we will reach more accurate results from this study.
In developed countries, respectively, economic globalization, social globalization, and globalization have the greatest impact on reducing the penetration rate of non-life insurance. But in the "Iran Vision" countries, political, general and economic globalization, respectively, have had the greatest impact on increasing the penetration rate of non-life insurance.
Comparatively reviewing the results, we conclude that in developed countries, economic globalization has the greatest impact on reduction and in the countries of "Iran Vision" and Iran, political globalization has the greatest impact on the penetration rate of non-life insurance.
Conclusions & Suggestions
1- Determinates of the least portfolio for life insurance premiums by the Central Insurance for insurance companies: Due to the restrictions announced by Central Insurance, insurance companies make their advertising, educational and cultural efforts to increase the penetration rate of insurance they live.
2- By developing international relations, the government can pavé the way for international insurance companies to enter the country: This policy of expansion causes the insurance industry to develop in two dimensions: "FPI" and transfer of technical knowledge.
3- Developing the supply of insurance services in deprived areas
4- Inflation control and population control policies by the government in conditions of stagflation