Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract The rapid rise of digital currencies, most notably Bitcoin, has fundamentally reshaped global commerce, offering decentralized, secure, and efficient mechanisms for conducting financial transactions. This study investigates the specific impact of Bitcoin on e-commerce in Iran, focusing on key perceived factors such as trust and cybersecurity, and potential of e-commerce. The research aims to explore how Bitcoin's decentralized nature influences the perceived reliability of transactions, the perceived risks associated with cybersecurity, and the perceived potentials of e-commerce in Iran.
This study adopts a mixed-method approach, utilizing both quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the Iranian e-commerce and cryptocurrency sectors. Over 100 participants actively involved in digital commerce were surveyed, with data analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess the relationships between Bitcoin adoption and perceived trust, security, potential of e-commerce. Findings reveal that not only using Bitcoin presents significant opportunities for enhancing trust and improving transaction efficiency, but also provides new potentials in terms of perceived cybersecurity and traditional e-commerce. These insights are crucial for businesses and policymakers in Iran seeking to navigate the complexities of integrating Bitcoin into the country’s burgeoning e-commerce sector.

Abstract این پژوهش با هدف بررسی رابطه بین سرمایه عملیاتی، نگهداری وجوه نقد و عملکرد مالی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام شده است. سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که آیا سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی این شرکت‌ها تاثیر معناداری دارند؟ در این پژوهش، فرضیه‌هایی مبنی بر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت‌ها مطرح شده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه‌ها، از داده‌های مالی 110 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در یک دوره زمانی 10 ساله از سال 1391 تا سال 1400 استفاده شده است. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از اسناد سازمان بورس و با کمک نرم‌افزار اکسل تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار آماری استاتا صورت گرفته است. در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از روش رگرسیون چند متغیره با داده های ترکیبی بهره گیری شده است. آزمون‌های چاو و هاسمن برای انتخاب الگوی مناسب برآورد مدل‌ها و آزمون‌های والد تعدیل‌شده، والدریج و پسران نیز برای بررسی فروض کلاسیک رگرسیون استفاده شده است.
به لحاظ نظری، این پژوهش به غنی‌سازی ادبیات موجود در زمینه مدیریت مالی و عملکرد شرکت‌ها کمک می‌کند و از نظر کاربردی، نتایج این پژوهش می‌تواند برای مدیران شرکت‌ها، سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیلگران بازار سرمایه و سیاست‌گذاران مفید باشد تا تصمیمات بهتری اتخاذ کنند. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش بیانگر این است که سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد.

Abstract Background and Objective: Entrepreneurship opportunities can be seen as a potentially feasible and profitable investment that offers a new innovative product or service to the market. Therefore, various strategies can affect the development of entrepreneurial opportunities, of which financing strategies and ensuring profitability seem to be the most important factors. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze financing strategies and ensuring profitability for the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs.
Methodology: This research used a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) method. Its quantitative part was conducted with a grounded theory approach and the quantitative part with a structural equation modeling method.
Findings and Results: In conceptualizing the qualitative part, first 56 meaningful statements were extracted from the interviews, then 44 corresponding concepts were extracted from them. Following axial coding, 44 concepts were transformed into 10 main subcategories and three final categories. The three final categories were the main concepts of the research, with the financing variable in three subcategories; External financing, internal financing and strong financial performance are conceptualized and profitability assurance is identified with three main subcategories; attention to future benefits, attention to profitability and conversion of stagnant assets into money. In the quantitative part, the results of structural equation modeling have shown that financing strategies with a coefficient of 0.85 have a direct and significant effect on the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs, and profitability assurance with a coefficient of 0.89 has a positive and direct effect on the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs.

Abstract One of the most fundamental sectors in economic and social development planning is housing. One of the most important challenges facing the housing market is the existence of speculation in this market, which leads to a market bubble and, as a result, imposes high costs on society. The main objective of this research is to investigate the housing rental bubble and its influencing factors in Iran during the period 1990-2024. Therefore, first, using the Kalman filter, the rent bubble is calculated, and then the factors affecting it are analyzed using the ARDL approach. Findings from the estimation of the housing rent bubble showed that a significant portion of the housing rent changes in this period were not only due to changes in fundamental variables but also due to the formation of a price bubble, so that since 2019, due to increasing inflation, decreasing people's purchasing power, and increasing rents, the amount of the housing rent bubble has increased. The results of the ARDL approach also showed that in the long run, real liquidity and the unofficial exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with the housing rental bubble. In addition, the results indicate that GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and bank interest rate have a negative relationship with housing rent bubbles in the long run. This study emphasizes the government's influence on the housing market through monetary policy with liquidity and interest rate instruments. Therefore, authorities should pay attention to the effects of monetary policy on the housing market.

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of working capital management on accelerating the speed of achieving optimal liquidity in the banking industry. This study is applied and from a methodological perspective, the correlation is of a causal (post-event) type. The statistical population of the study is all banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, and using the systematic exclusion sampling method, 10 banks were selected as the research sample and were examined over a 9-year period between 1394 and 1402. The results of testing the research hypotheses showed that in fact, the liquidity conversion cycle (working capital management) has a direct effect on achieving optimal liquidity in banks and increases the speed of adjusting cash holdings in the bank. Of the two subsets of working capital management (liquidity conversion cycle), namely the receivables collection period and the debt payment period, it was observed that the receivables collection period also has a direct effect on the speed of achieving optimal liquidity, but the debt payment period has no statistical effect on the speed of achieving optimal liquidity in the sample of the present study.

Abstract 1- Introduction
With the rapid growth of information and communication technology, electronic banking will play a central and important role in various fields. In this framework, determining the impact of the expansion of electronic banking on banks' costs can be very important. The use of electronic banking tools has positive and negative effects on the productivity of bank branches and causes the final effect of each of these tools to be different. This research examines the role of electronic banking on productivity in 16 bank branches in Yazd province in the period of 1396-1400.
2- Theoretical framework
Electronic banking is the optimal integration of all activities of a bank. In other words, by using new information technology based on banking processes and in accordance with the organizational structure, it provides the possibility of providing needed services to customers. This type of banking provides facilities for customers to access banking services without the need for physical presence and using safe intermediaries. Also, it is the use of technology that allows bank customers and other stakeholders to interact with the bank without intermediaries and through various electronic channels.
3- Methodology
This research examines the effect of using electronic banking tools on the productivity indicators of the bank in Yazd province. Therefore, the research data has been obtained using the data provided by the bank's planning and development department, financial department, support department and human capital department; The data is extracted monthly, quarterly and annually. The statistical population of the research includes all branches (16 branches) of the bank in question during the years 1396-1400 in Yazd province.
3-1- Dependent variable
The branch productivity index consists of the combination of four main criteria. The main criteria include equipment, allocation, arrears and performance. Each of these four criteria is calculated by 2 to 5 indexers.
3-2- Explanatory variables
Explanatory variables are: electronic banking tools (modern documents and cards), human capital (number of employees, educational qualifications and service history), building (age of branches), deposit interest rate. In the general division of bank documents, they are: small, modern and card documents. Modern documents and cards are known as electronic banking tools.
3-3- Research model
The research model is as follows:
(1) Pr = f (Hc, Eq, Eb, Er, Ek)
where Pr is the productivity index, Hc is the vector of human capital variables, Eq is the vector of building and equipment quality and quantity variables, Eb is the vector of electronic tools use indicators, Er is the interest rate vector, and Ek is the vector of small documents.
4- Discussion
The results of Model 1 show that the amount of modern documents has a significant relationship with productivity and has a very small but negative effect on the equipment index. Also, card documents and small documents do not have a significant relationship with the equipment index. The number of manpower, service history and education level of employees have no significant relationship with the equipment index. The age of the building has a positive and significant relationship with the equipment index. The deposit rate also has a negative and significant relationship with the equipment index. In model 2, there is no significant relationship between the number of modern documents and the card with the allocation index. Also, the number of micro documents has a positive and significant relationship with the deposit allocation index. In addition, there is no significant relationship between high education degree and employees' service history with allocation index. In model 3, there is a positive and significant effect between the amount of modern documents and the arrears index. But the amount of card documents has no significant relationship with the arrears index. Also, micro documents do not have a significant effect on the arrears index. In addition, the high level of education and the number of employees have a negative effect on the arrears index. But the service history does not affect the arrears index. In model 4, modern documents have a significant and negative relationship on the performance index. On the other hand, micro documents have a significant and positive relationship on this index. There is a positive and significant relationship between the average level of education and performance index. The deposit interest rate also has a negative effect on the performance index, and the age of the building does not affect the performance index. In the 5th model of the research, the general and summarized mode is 4 productivity indicators under the index of the total score, and the title of productivity is determined from the total score. According to the targeting of the studied bank in the indicators affecting productivity, finally, the number of documents has been used as a factor affecting productivity. The number of modern documents and cards do not have a significant relationship with the productivity index. Therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected and it cannot be said that electronic banking documents have been able to influence the productivity of the bank. Among the variables of education degree, service history, building age and deposit rate, only service history has a significant relationship with the productivity index, and it cannot be said that these variables play a significant role in the bank's productivity.
5- Conclusion and Suggestions
According to the findings of the research, it is not possible to say that electronic banking has a significant relationship with the bank's productivity, and this shows that electronic banking has not been able to reduce banking costs and create profitability as it should have been. Therefore, the main hypothesis of the research regarding the impact of electronic banking on productivity indicators can be rejected. Therefore, according to the research results, the most important suggestion is: Increasing the quality of providing electronic banking services by updating equipment and software.

Abstract The key to developing education is, therefore, developing tax culture is not possible without education. The purpose of this study is to design an educational model for promoting tax culture. The method of this study is descriptive and qualitative, according to the research propositions, which was carried out using the Delphi method and by referring to 10 academic and executive experts. By referring to the experts and obtaining their opinions during three Delphi rounds, validation and the final research model were designed. Based on the findings of this study, the categorized factors affecting the educational process of promoting tax culture, including; generalization of education, nature of educational materials, type of teaching materials, educational tools, cultural approach to education, educational information approach (awareness), tax educational philosophy, educational perspective, and education with legal support were identified using the scores that the panel members gave to the effective indicators in the third stage. Also, a review of experts' opinions on the factors affecting the educational model for promoting tax culture using the Friedman test showed that the educational tools index with an average of 8.76, the generalization of education with an average of 7.97, and the educational information approach with an average of 6.51 were ranked first, second, and third, respectively, in the priority ranking of the panel members. Finally, practical suggestions were provided for policymakers and tax practitioners in the country in order to develop the desired educational model and for researchers to conduct future research.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the presence of feedback trading strategies among investors in the "Refah Coin Deposit Certificate" as a commodity-based financial instrument, as well as to analyze the symmetry or asymmetry of return volatility in response to market news. For this purpose, the Santana and Waldany (1992) model was employed to test for the existence of feedback trading, while the GJR-GARCH model was used to examine asymmetric responses of returns to positive and negative news. Daily data covering the period from February 22, 2016 to April 21, 2025were analyzed. The results indicated an asymmetric reaction of returns to market news, with positive news having a greater impact compared to negative news. However, no evidence of feedback trading behavior was found among investors in this market. Therefore, it can be concluded that investors have primarily focused on fundamental factors rather than short-term market trends or emotional reactions. Accordingly, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to fundamental and economic variables in their decision-making processes and avoid speculative or reactive trading strategies.

Abstract Aim and Introduction
This study investigates the impact of gold and silver price fluctuations on stock market indices in selected Middle Eastern countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) from 2005 to 2022, grounded in Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory. By employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model combined with wavelet transformation, the research examines the dynamic relationships between these variables across different time scales. The motivation stems from the critical role of gold and silver as key commodities in global and regional financial systems, particularly in resource-dependent economies like Iran and the UAE, where understanding these dynamics is essential for effective risk management.
Methodology
A two-step approach integrates wavelet transformation and the TVP-VAR model. Gold and silver price series were decomposed into long-term, medium-term, and short-term frequency components to analyze their interactions with stock market indices. The TVP-VAR model was then applied to capture evolving relationships across these wavelet scales, enabling the identification of temporal and frequency-specific effects and providing nuanced insights into financial market dynamics.
Findings
The results reveal that gold and silver price fluctuations significantly influence stock market indices in the medium- and short-term wavelet scales, but no significant effects were observed in the long-term scale, indicating transient rather than stable dependencies. Significant correlations between gold, silver, and stock indices vary by country and time horizon, with stronger short-term correlations in resource-dependent economies like Iran and the UAE, and negative medium-term correlations in Egypt, reflecting diverse economic structures and policy environments.
Discussion and Conclusion
The findings highlight the value of multi-scale, time-sensitive models like wavelet-based TVP-VAR for analyzing financial market dynamics. The pronounced short-term interdependencies in resource-dependent Middle Eastern countries underscore the need for proactive risk management strategies. This study contributes to the literature by integrating frequency-based analysis into econometric modeling, offering insights that can enhance policy and investment decisions for greater financial stability in the region.

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty of the government's macroeconomic policies on the speed of adjustment of trade credit . Considering that financing through commercial credit is of great interest to managers of companies due to the high cost of financing through debt, therefore, achieving commercial credit as soon as possible is of great importance. The statistical population of the study is Tehran Stock Exchange and the study period has been since 2011 until 2023‌. By applying the conditions of systematic exclusion, 136 companies have been included in the final screening from the statistical population as the final sample‌. In the present study, the generalized moment approach‌ has been used to test the research hypotheses. Three factors of changes in the inflation rate, exchange rate changes, and changes in the country's economic growth rate were used to identify the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies.
The statistical results showed that the rate of adjustment of trade credit in the sample used in the study is about 75%, which in fact shows the high willingness of companies to use credit financing, and companies actively reduce 75% of the gap between the target and real business credit annually.
Also, changes in the exchange rate, changes in the inflation rate, and changes in the country's economic growth rate affect the rate of adjustment of trade credit. It has positive and meaningful. In fact, with the increase in uncertainty in economic policies, the speed of adjustment of trade credit towards optimal commercial credit will increase, and in this situation, managers will move towards credit financing.

Abstract A stable financial system plays a critical role in facilitating the flow of funds from savers to investors and optimal allocation of scarce resources to productive economic activities. Any disruption in the functioning of this system can jeopardize these essential objectives. Economic uncertainty, as a key factor affecting economic decision-making, has always been the focus of policymakers. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis by calculating an uncertainty index arising from Iran's economic policies (including monetary and exchange rate policies) during the period 1981–2022 using the GARCH model and the OECD’s ten-step methodology. Furthermore, the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and the financial stability index was examined using the Markov Switching model. Key variables affecting monetary policy uncertainty include interest rate, money supply growth rate, inflation rate, central bank independence, and government fiscal health, while the key variable for exchange rate policy uncertainty is the real exchange rate. The financial stability index was constructed using variables such as liquidity, capital adequacy ratio, bank credit to the private sector, deposit interest rates, stock market index, and exchange rate. The findings reveal that EPU1 primarily reflects domestic economic fluctuations, while EPU2 is more sensitive to international shocks like sanctions. During financial instability, external shocks dominate, whereas both domestic and external uncertainties pose threats during stable periods, highlighting the need for adaptive policy measures to maintain financial stability in Iran's economy."

Abstract Medical insurance is known as one of the most important fields of insurance in the insurance industry. This field can be designed and implemented in a wide range of designs. Medical insurance is one of the important branches of the insurance industry, which attracts the attention of many insurers and has a very high diversity due to the difference in lifestyle, purchasing power and different needs of people. Different insurance policies with various insurance coverage obligations are designed and priced according to the needs and requests of policyholders. Since the day-by-day increase in the costs paid by people to receive medical services is considered one of the most important issues and problems in the field of healthcare in the country, insurance companies have also tried, considering the importance of this issue, by providing different and innovative plans that suit the needs of people. Provide and facilitate this need so that when an accident or illness occurs, the economy of families does not fall apart due to the high cost of medical services. But in the meantime, some violations and frauds that occur in the field of medical insurance or the non-technical rates that are included for this insurance, have caused the field of medical insurance to be considered one of the losing fields in the insurance industry and cause problems for insurance companies. According to the study, the supervisory body and insurance companies should prevent price breaks and non-technical rates of companies for sale in order to reduce the loss of this field. Due to the higher growth rate of damage compared to the growth rate of medical insurance premiums in the country, this issue has had many destructive and negative effects on the loss of the medical field and has caused a negative deviation in the performance of this insurance field.

Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and sectoral composition in emerging economies. Utilizing a panel ARDL model on a dataset of 45 emerging markets over the period 1995–2023, the study uncovers a robust empirical pattern: financial development is significantly associated with structural transformation, characterized by a declining share of agriculture and a corresponding increase in the share of industry—particularly services. The results also indicate the presence of bidirectional causality between financial development and the industrial and service sectors, suggesting a mutually reinforcing dynamic in the structural transformation process. However, the paper critically evaluates this general finding within the specific institutional context of Iran. It argues that under a state-dominated, bank-based financial system marked by financial repression and directed credit policies, the classical link between finance and structural change becomes distorted. The findings reveal that in such a setting, financial expansion does not necessarily lead to efficient resource allocation or support productive transformation and may even exacerbate structural rigidities. The paper concludes that for countries like Iran, quantitative financial expansion is insufficient. Rather, qualitative financial development—anchored in deep institutional and policy reforms—is a prerequisite for fostering a healthy and sustainable structural transition.

Abstract Today, the significant impacts of blockchain technology on several industries, including the financial sector, cannot be ignored. However, its potential to increase security, speed, and transparency in the financial reports of Iraqi banks has not yet been examined. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of blockchain technology on the security, speed, and transparency of financial reports in banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange with data from the last six months of 2023 and the first three months of 2024. Descriptive statistical methods and inferential statistics (multivariate regression and structural equation model) were used for analysis. 384 people from among accountants, independent auditors, managers, and others in banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange was considered as a sample. The results of the hypothesis test showed that at the 99% confidence level, the level of familiarity with blockchain technology was a factor in increasing the security and quality of information in banks' financial reports. Thus, the level of use of blockchain technology had a positive and significant impact on the security, speed, and transparency of financial reports of Iraqi listed banks. Since the present study was examined in an emerging market such as Iraq, it can provide useful information in this field for readers in Iraq and other similar countries.