Monetary & Financial Economics

Original Article take stock

Forecasting stock prices using neural network and squirrel search algorithm

Homa Mehtarizadeh; Najme Mansouri; Seyed Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini; Razieh Delpasand

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.75274.1167

Abstract

‎Investing in stocks offered on the stock exchange is one of the most lucrative investments in the financial and capital markets‏. However, stock price behavior is one of the most complex mechanisms that researchers have studied. This market always shows unpredictable, chaotic, and non-linear ... Read More

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Original Article Financial Economics

stigating the the impact of financial stability determinants with emphasis on the banking industry factors

ghaem hashemi; Mohammad solgi; Gholam Hassan Taghi Netaj Malik Shah

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.81779.1294

Abstract

Financial stability refers to a situation where the financial system consisting of intermediaries, markets and market instruments and infrastructure are able to withstand shocks, as a result of which the possibility of disruption in the mediation process is reduced. The purpose of this research is to ... Read More

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Original Article Startups and its financing

The effect of enterprise risk management on the supply and demand of commercial credit

Abdonaser Derakhsan; Farshid Ahmadi Farsani; Alireza Abroud

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.85428.1355

Abstract

Commercial credit is the most important source of short-term financing for companies and commercial enterprises. Commercial credit is one of the methods by which companies provide financing for short-term periods. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of enterprise risk management on ... Read More

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Original Article Budgeting and the public sector

Fiscal deficit and tax policies and their impact on economic indicators with regard to the government's sovereign role; The SVAR approach

Ramezan Ali Arshian; Karim Emami; kambiz peykarjou

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.84799.1336

Abstract

The present study explains the response of the economic welfare index to fiscal deficit and tax policies despite the government's sovereign role for the years 1365-1400. For this purpose, using the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), the effect of fiscal deficit, government tax policies and ... Read More

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Original Article Financial monetary economy

The effect of equilibrium exchange rate deviations on Iraq foreign trade

Mostafa Hassan Jassim Al-Jalabi; maryam emamimibodi

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.85107.1345

Abstract

1- INTRODUCTIONWith the passage of time and the importance of international interactions between countries in the field of economy, topics such as currency market, foreign trade, capital flow in the international arena, etc. became very important in economic theoretical foundations. One of the issues ... Read More 1- INTRODUCTIONWith the passage of time and the importance of international interactions between countries in the field of economy, topics such as currency market, foreign trade, capital flow in the international arena, etc. became very important in economic theoretical foundations. One of the issues that is emphasized a lot in the field of international economy is the management of the foreign exchange market and, as a result, issues such as the mechanism of determining the equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate deviation, which almost all countries are involved in with varying intensity and weakness. . Undoubtedly, the stability of the currency market and the establishment of a real equilibrium exchange rate in this market are of double importance in developing countries. Therefore, managing the exchange rate and preventing its fluctuation and deviation from an equilibrium value has become one of the most important concerns of policymakers in these developing countries, including Iraq. Because, any cross-sectional fluctuation or exchange rate deviation in the short and long term can create challenges for other sectors of the economy, as well as acute imbalances at the macro level and the balance of payments crisis in developing countries are often the direct result of deviation from the long-term equilibrium path is the exchange rate.2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORKThe exchange rate is one of the important tools in the hands of monetary authorities in all countries of the world in general and developing countries in particular, due to its high sensitivity to the investment environment, business environment and economic conditions. The most appropriate exchange of facts and data is political economy. The excessive sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to the change of the Iraqi exchange rate is due to the deterioration of the real macroeconomic environment.On the other hand, foreign trade plays an important role in determining the fate of any country, and this important economic sector connects the domestic economy of the country with the international economy. Trade is so important that some see it as a driver of development. Different economic schools offer different views on business. Some people like the liberals consider it a factor of peace, realists consider it a factor of increasing national power if the trade balance is positive, and some others like; Marxists propose free trade as a tactic of developed countries to dominate developing countries. The exchange rate is directly related to foreign trade and any increase or decrease can affect the trade balance and competitiveness of domestic producers against foreign goods inside and outside. There are positive relationships between the exchange rate and domestic production, therefore, an increase in the exchange rate can be useful for national production, but it should be noted that the increase in the exchange rate should not be sudden and fluctuating, because Fluctuations in the exchange rate create uncertain conditions for the country's producers and exporters, which can have a negative impact on industrial and agricultural production, employment, etc. The political will of the government should be independent of any political dealings with the exchange rate, so that in this way it can prevent the fluctuations of the exchange rate and its adverse effect on exports and consequently on the power of the country. In fact, policy-making in this area should be technically appropriate to the conditions of domestic and foreign inflation and away from any considerations such as institutional, party interests, election time, and budget deficit.3- METHODOLOGYTo investigate the effect of deviations of the equilibrium exchange rate on the foreign trade relationship of Iraq for the years 2005 to 2021. Therefore, in the first step, the influencing factors on the equilibrium exchange rate were examined using the DOLS method, and the second step was to examine the short-term and long-term effects of deviations of the equilibrium exchange rate on the exchange, export, and import relationship using the ARDL method.4- RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONIn this paper we examine three hypotheses. According to the negative and significant short-term and long-term deviation of the exchange rate with the exchange relationship, it shows exports and imports. Therefore, in the first hypothesis; the effect of exchange rate deviation on the exchange relationship of Iraq is negative, it was confirmed and the results showed that the effect of exchange rate deviation on the exchange relationship of Iraq is negative and significant. In the second hypothesis; the negative and significant effect of exchange rate deviation on Iraq's exports has been tested and this hypothesis has been confirmed. But, the third hypothesis; the exchange rate deviation had a negative and significant effect on Iraq's imports, and this hypothesis was also confirmed.5- CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONConsidering the negative and significant effect of exchange rate deviations on exports, imports and the exchange relationship, it is suggested that the currency policies in Iraq be designed in such a way that the real exchange rate moves towards the equilibrium level and from high deviations the exchange rate should be reduced as much as possible. In this regard, the reduction of the nominal value of money is introduced as a solution to eliminate the deviation of the real effective exchange rate from the long-term equilibrium path, which the use of this policy is based on the complementary policy that increases the prices in the country. Can be used as a practical solution and economic policy makers in Iraq use the equal purchasing power method due to the simplicity and availability of information from price indices, inflation rate and consumer price index to estimate Use the exchange rate. Finally, since the exchange rate is influenced by political relations, the imposition of economic sanctions, the price of oil and the occurrence of war, it is strongly affected. Improving political and economic relations with neighboring countries and major economic powers can be effective in this regard.

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Original Article Financial Economics

Investigating and comparing the efficiency of econometric models (ARIMA and GARCH) and artificial intelligence (SVM and ANFIS) in predicting the price of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin case study)

sadegh bafandeh imandoust; mehdi behname; Mehdi Roshan

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.86389.1382

Abstract

In this study, the comparative prediction of Bitcoin price was discussed using econometric models and artificial intelligence. For this purpose, daily Bitcoin price data for the period January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2023 was collected from the Bitstamp exchange website. In addition, in this study, in ... Read More

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Original Article Financial monetary economy

Examining the effects of financial stress on the uncertainty of Iran's monetary policy despite the role of government governance in recession and boom regimes

zahra heirani; kiomars sohaili; SHAHRAM Fattahi

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.87351.1408

Abstract

In this study, we seek to test the financial tension and uncertainty of Iran's monetary policy despite the role of government governance in recession and boom regimes. For this purpose, by using the principal component analysis (PCA) model in the first part, the financial stress index was calculated ... Read More

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پژوهشی Capital markets

Factors affecting Venture Capital Investment by Real Investors, A Study of Tehran Stock Exchange (Sari branch) Activists

mohammad reza babaei semiromi; ramezan gholami evati; sayed tohid mosavian

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.88235.1424

Abstract

Increasing desire for venture capital is one of the growth drivers of small and medium enterprises in developing countries. Startup companies, if supported by venture capitalists, can successfully IPO, lead to the development of their market and rapid increase in profitability and increase in the value ... Read More

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پژوهشی financial and monetary policies

Investigating the dynamic Impacts of monetary policy on the return of Tehran Stock Exchange industries using the PMG model

Seyed Hassan Masoudi Alavi; Mohammad Nadiri; Alireza saranj

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89357.1442

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to investigate the impacts of monetary policy on the return of different industries of Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the existing theories, this effect can be different. In the current research, using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method, in the period of April 2010 ... Read More

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Original Article Public Sector Economics

Investigating the interactive effects of oil revenues fluctuations and severe economic sanctions on exchange rate volatility in Iran: ARDL-EGARCH approach

hojjat izadkhasti; Farnaz Mirramazani

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.86163.1373

Abstract

Exchange rate volatility through instability in the economy causes uncertainty in the economy at the macro level and decision-making and planning of economic factors face a crisis. Also, the exchange rate is affected by several factors and the requirement for managing exchange rate volatility is to identify ... Read More

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Original Article Macroeconomics

Agent-based Modeling and Exchange rate policy After the shock of sanctions; Case study: Iran after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA

hasan hasankhani; Nasser Elahi

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89224.1440

Abstract

With the expansion of computational and simulation capacities, factor-based models have also found a special place in the economics literature. Unlike theoretical models that mainly focus on maintaining theoretical frameworks, these models have the ability to explain the behavior of economic agents without ... Read More

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Original Article Economic Sciences

COVID-19 pandemic in economics scholarship: A bibliometric analysis

Younes Nobakht

Volume 31, Issue 2 , September 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.87771.1417

Abstract

1. INTRODUCTIONIn addition to creating a wave of infections and deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has involved various countries in a particular economic crisis. Therefore, researchers have tried to study and investigate the issue from different aspects of this field. For example, some researchers showed ... Read More 1. INTRODUCTIONIn addition to creating a wave of infections and deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has involved various countries in a particular economic crisis. Therefore, researchers have tried to study and investigate the issue from different aspects of this field. For example, some researchers showed that the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had a great impact on financial markets and caused heavy losses to investors in a short period (Mou, 2020). Others showed that the main economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were not caused by death, illness, and the duration of patient care, but rather fear and discrimination were the main factors and drivers affecting the economy in this crisis (Gong et al., 2020). Anyway, these studies should be supported by review articles including bibliometric articles. As far as the author has checked, no special research has been done in the bibliometric analysis of articles in the subject area of COVID-19 and economics in Iran. Therefore, this bibliometric study attempts to quantitatively analyze the literature on this field in Iran and visualize the knowledge structure in this field to help future researchers and policymakers.2. METHODOLOGYThis applied study was conducted based on bibliometrics. The statistical population of the research includes all the articles published in the field of the COVID-19 pandemic and economics in scientific journals in the field of economics in Iran from February 2020 to January 2023. Related articles were extracted and analyzed by referring to the website of these journals and through their advanced search section and limiting the search to the words "coronavirus", "COVID-19", "epidemic", and "pandemic". The software used in this research is Excel, VOSviewer, and RavarMatrix software, each of which was used for a part of the research.3. RESULTS & DISCUSSION3-1. The process of publishing articles in the field of COVID-19 researches and the economics in Iran.Results show that the trend of publishing articles in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran is on the rise, and the highest number of published articles is related to the year 2022 with 32 titles and 39% of all articles. In any case, the publication of scientific articles in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran, due to the large number of scientific journals in the field of economics in Iran, has not gone through a successful process in the studied period. 3-2. The intellectual structure of researches in the field of COVID-19 and the economics in Iran. Evaluation of the intellectual structure of research in bibliometric analysis is usually done by examining the most frequent keywords, and the words co-occurrence. The most frequent keywords in identifying the main core of topics that make up the intellectual structure of research and the co-occurrence of words in identifying clusters, the time trend, and also the density of keywords that make up the intellectual structure of research from the point of view of introducing dominant, developed, saturated, extinct or emerging topics, they are used.In this research, to investigate the most frequent keywords, the main words used in the title and the keywords selected by the authors in each of the articles were used. Results show that researchers in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran have used 518 keywords in their articles. Keywords of COVID-19 with 82, Tehran Stock Exchange and pandemic each with 14, stock market with 9, industry and oil price each with 8 repetitions in order of the most frequent keywords of the main core of the topics that make up the intellectual structure is the researches in the field of COVID-19 and the economy in Iran, which has started in recent years. To investigate the words co-occurrence also, social network mapping was used. Analysis of the social network map of the co-occurrence of words through three methods 1. Analysis of clusters of the most frequent keywords, 2. Investigating the time process of formation of clusters of the most frequent keywords, and 3. Density analysis of the most frequent keywords is done. Due to its novelty and the small number of articles in this field in Iran, analysis of the articles by examining the time trend and the density of the most frequent keywords will not be meaningful. Therefore, the co-occurrence of words was done only through the analysis of clusters of the most frequent keywords. In any case, drawing the keywords co-occurrence map in the field of COVID-19 research and the economics in Iran only led to the identification of one thematic cluster. This cluster has eight main keywords including; COVID-19, Tehran Stock Exchange, pandemic, stock market, industry, oil price, economy, and exchange rate connected by red lines. Thus, it can be said that the keywords of this cluster show the direction of studies on COVID-19 and the economics in Iran, which has started in recent years. 3-3. Cooperation networks in the field of COVID-19 researches and the economy in Iran.One of the most important cases in bibliometric evaluations is the analysis of collaboration networks between authors and universities. Knowledge of these networks facilitates the provision of financial and human resources for research and leads to the improvement of scientific interactions and communications (Ding, 2011).In this research, to investigate collaboration networks among authors, the map of collaboration networks based on co-authorship was used. To investigate cooperation networks among universities, the map of social networks based on co-authorship was also used. However, due to the lack of data related to universities in the reference section of Iranian journals, instead of using the relations of citation and keywords, the focus was on the direct relationship between universities. In any case, the examination of the map of cooperation networks among authors and universities in Iran shows that Although there has been good cooperation between universities in the subject area of COVID-19 and economics, there has not been an outstanding subject connection between the authors in this area.4. CONCLUSIONS

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The Critically Evaluation of the Baumol – Tobin Inventory Theory of Money Demand

Volume 23, Issue 12 , February 2017, , Pages 217-234

https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v23i12.45376

Abstract

Money is the one of the most important human innovations that has essential role in facilitating of transactions and economic evolution. Which added its performance with development and complicated of societies. The money market has like all other markets, both a demand side and a supply side. In this ... Read More Money is the one of the most important human innovations that has essential role in facilitating of transactions and economic evolution. Which added its performance with development and complicated of societies. The money market has like all other markets, both a demand side and a supply side. In this paper we examine the demand side. Since the 1930s, economists have developed the theory underlying the demand for money along several different lines, each of which provides a different answer to the basic question: If bonds earn interest and money doesn’t, why should a person hold money? While the way the various theories this question differs, in general they come down to a demand for money function. The cognition of effective factors on money demand is one of the most important economic topics. To answer this problem, some of the economists try to present several money demand theories. In this paper we will evaluate the inventory approach to transaction demand developed by both Baumol and Tobin. They show that there is a transactions need for money to smooth out the difference between income and expenditure streams and the higher the interest rate – the return on holding bonds instead of money – the smaller these transactions demand balances should be. Theoretical Framework Keynes had designated the transactions demand for money as due to the transactions motive but had not provided a theory for its determination. In particular, he had assumed that this demand depended linearly on current income but did not depend on interest rates. Subsequent contributions by Baumol and Tobin in the 1950s established the theory of the transactions demand for money. These contributions showed that this demand depends not only on income but also on the interest rate on bonds. Further, there are economies of scale in money holdings. The transactions demand for money is derived under the assumption of certainty of the yields on bonds, as well as of the amounts and time patterns of income and expenditures. Baumol (1952) and Tobin (1956) presented their money demand theory by using inventory approach. Developments since the 1950s have extended and broadened the Baumol–Tobin transactions demand analysis, without rejecting it. The most significant extension of this analysis has been to the case where there is uncertainty in the timings of the receipts and payments. The demand for money under this type of uncertainty is usually labeled as the precautionary demand for money. This section presents Baumol’s (1952) version of the inventory analysis of the transactions demand for money. This analysis considers the choice between two assets, “money” and “bonds,” whose discriminating characteristic is that money serves as the medium for payments in the purchase of commodities whereas bonds do not; hence, commodities trade against money, not against bonds. There is no uncertainty in the model, so the yield on bonds is known with certainty. The real-world counterpart of such bonds is interest-paying savings deposits or such riskless short-term financial assets as Treasury bills. Longer-term bonds whose yield is uncertain are not really considered in Baumol’s analysis. Baumol’s other assumptions are: 1. Money holdings do not pay interest. Bond holdings do so at the nominal rate R. There are no own-service costs of holding money or bonds, but there are transfer costs from one to the other, as outlined later. Bonds can be savings deposits or other financial assets. 2. There is no uncertainty even in the timing or amount of the individual’s receipts and expenditures. 3. The individual intends to finance an amount $Y of expenditures, which occur in a steady stream through the given period, and already possesses the funds to meet these expenditures. Since money is the medium of payments in the model, all payments are made in money. 4. The individual intends to cash bonds in lots of $W spaced evenly through the period. For every withdrawal, he incurs a “brokerage (bonds–money transfer) cost” that has two components: a fixed cost of $B0 and a variable cost of B1 per dollar withdrawn. Examples of such brokerage costs are broker’s commission, banking charges and own (or personal) costs in terms of time and convenience for withdrawals from bonds. The overall cost per withdrawal of $W is $(B0 +B1W). They explained that individuals have two cost about money demand: the cost of interest rate of money (first cost) and the cost of refer to bank (second cost). The most important contribution of their theory is that interest rate influences transactions demand of money. Results & Discussion Our paper lead to this occlusion that development of electronic money and banking, causes the Baumol – Tobin theory faces essential critical and challenges. In recent age with development of electronic money and banking, the cost of refer to the bank is very low. Conclusion & Suggestion Hence we can assume that this cost is zero. By assumption that the cost of refer to the bank is zero, the inventory theory isn’t appropriate approach to money demand.

The effect of banks' performance on the economic integration of provinces: an approach Spatial econometrics

Volume 30, Issue 26 , July 2023, , Pages 164-204

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2023.78796.1235

Abstract

In this study, the effect of banks' performance on economic convergence in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019 has been investigated using spatial econometrics. The results of the estimation of the models showed that the ratio of facilities to bank deposits as an indicator of banking performance ... Read More

Development of Earning Manipulation Prediction Model Applying Hybrid Neural Network and Cosmology Based Algorithms

Volume 28, Issue 21 , November 2021, , Pages 57-86

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2021.71593.1099

Abstract

Extended abstract1- INTRODUCTIONAccurately predicting earning manipulation in order to detect and identify manipulation of financial statements has always been one of the most fundamental challenges ahead of financial reports users. Because of increasing financial reporting fraud, this fact resulted ... Read More Extended abstract1- INTRODUCTIONAccurately predicting earning manipulation in order to detect and identify manipulation of financial statements has always been one of the most fundamental challenges ahead of financial reports users. Because of increasing financial reporting fraud, this fact resulted in investor distrust of capital markets in recent years. The purpose of this study is to answer the questions whether it is possible to detect earning manipulation in financial statements based on the Beneish model? is it possible to detect earning manipulation in financial statements based on the proposed model? and does the proposed model predict better than the Beneish model in detecting earning manipulation? The findings of this research can be concidered by investors, creditors, auditors, regulators and other users to help them in making decisions and offering appropriate solutions. In order to detect earning manipulation and enhance the predictive accuracy of the earning manipulation model, it has been designed and presented a developed model based on Beneish model (1999). this study uses corporate governance variables i.e., audit committee structure, legal inspector and independent auditor, board of director's structure and corporate ownership structure requirements.2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Benish (1999) investigated 74 earning-manipulator companies applying probit analysis during 1982-1992. He assigned the number 1 to the manipulative companies and the number zero to the non-manipulative companies and calculated the coefficients of the independent variables. The cut-off point of this model was -1.78. Therefore, if the M-score is greater than -1.78, it is likely that the company is earning manipulator. The overall accuracy of the model was confirmed at 76%.By using eight accounting variables in its model, Beneish showed that the probability of earning manipulation increases with unusual increase in receivables, decrease in gross profit margin, decrease in asset quality, sales growth and increase in accruals. But what is hidden from view in this model, is the attention to the control of mechanism to reduce transaction and agency costs. Studies conducted to develop the Beneish model have also been based solely on accounting data and have ignored the implications of control mechanisms in model development. Therefore, in order to improve the predictive power of the beneish model, corporate governance system can be considered as a deterrent factor from earning manipulation.3- METHODOLOGY The data of this study are drawn from the annual financial statements and reports of a sample of 81 non-financial listed companies on TSE over the period 2012-2018 i.e., 567 firm-year observations and analyzed by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network and cosmology based algorithms i.e., black-hole based optimization (BHBO), big bang-big crunch (BBBC) and galactic swarm optimization (GSO). It has been applied feed forward net to design the initial and final neural network model by structure of 8-17-1-1 for Beneish model (1999) and of 25-17-1-1 for the proposed model.This study also compares models based on hybrid neural networks and cosmological algorithms and the best and weakest cosmological algorithms are determined in neural network training to detect earning manipulation.4- RESULTS & DISCUSSIONThe numerical value of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic gives an idea about the detection power which it has been in the rejected range of 0.74 to 0.55 for the Beneish model (1999) and in the accepted range of 0.97 to 0.75 for the proposed model. The best cut-off points and the best accuracy of the Beneish model (1999) have been estimated up to 0.4014, 63.49%, respectively, by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and big bang-big crunch algorithm (MLP-BBBC). The best cut-off point and the best accuracy of the proposed model have been estimated up to 0.4023 and 87.30 percent, respectively, by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO). The estimated accuracy of the model by the hybrid methods of multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO), hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and big bang-big crunch algorithm (MLP-BBBC) and hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and black-hole based optimization algorithm (MLP-BHBO) has been increased from 59.08, 63.49 and 57.5 percentages to 87.3, 79.72 and 74.25 percentages, respectively.5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONSThis evidence indicates that predictive power of the model has been enhanced in detecting earning-manipulator companies and training error of the network has been decreased up to 12.7 percentages by hybrid method of multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO). Therefore, it can be concluded that the integration of corporate governance variables as non-accounting variables to the Beneish model (1999) has been more effective in detecting and identifying earning manipulation. This evidence is consistent with this fact that a significant reduction in mean square error (MSE) is up to 23.81% and as a result the predictive power of proposed model has been significantly improved. The area under the curve of the black-hole based optimization (BHBO) and big bang-big crunch (BBBC) algorithms is covered by the galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm in the proposed model. Also the area under the curve of the black-hole based optimization (BHBO) and galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithms is covered by the big bang-big crunch (BBBC) algorithm in Beneish model(1999). Therefore, the best algorithms for training the multi-layer perceptron neural network belong to the galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm in the proposed model by the 12.7% error and to the Big Bang- Big Crunch (BB-BC) algorithm in Beneish model (1999) by the 36.51% error compared to the other cosmological algorithms in this study to detect and identify of manipulator companies.

Examination of the Effect of the Shock Caused by Monetary Policy and Oil Revenue on Inflation and Economic Growth in Iran

Volume 27, Issue 19 , June 2021, , Pages 29-46

https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v27i19.85109

Abstract

Introduction Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency ... Read More Introduction Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency sources from oil export and withdrawal from foreign exchange reserve account by which Central Bank inevitably buys currency resulting to increase monetary base. Lack of possibility of mathematical anticipation and uncertainty of oil revenues to finance is one of the challenges monetary authorities encounter in Iran. Accordingly, mathematical programing for economic stability requires identifying the effect of Monetary Policy based on oil revenue. Examination of the effect of Monetary Policy in economics started with the theory of '' the amount of money''. Economic experts are of different viewpoints on the impact of Monetary Policy on Marco variables. According to theoretical and experimental literature, Monetary Policy makes an outstanding difference on Marco variables. On the other hand such policies are extinguished by oil revenue leading to more obscurity. Theoretical framework According to the existing literature, the way of applying Monetary Policy is different in oil exporter and importer countries. when oil price rises, Central bank, In order to control inflation, increases the interest rate, and Monetary Policy acts as a contraction in oil importer countries. However, in oil exporter countries, when oil price rises, currency revenues, mainly in the hands of the government, increases, and the government, by converting part of oil dollars to domestic currency, intentionally or unintentionally, increases the amount of money to provide its expenses. So, in exporter countries like Iran, oil revenues directly affect economic Macro variables. They, also, indirectly affect through Monetary Policy. Methodology The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of monetary policy on economic Marco variables due to oil revenues. This study has, also, used interest rate variable, bank facilities, and legal reserve rate on monetary policy. Such variables have been used, indoors or outdoors, in different economic studies. Basically, in this study, the economic Marco variables are also economic growth and inflation rate respectively due to the limited access to information and also other existing limitations. To measure the economic growth rate, GDP growth rate at a fixed price has been used. The inflation rate resulted from consumer price index growth rate (CPI). In this study, using STATA software, the variables have been used from the years 1978 to 2017. Results & Discussion The results of this study have shown that the rise in bank interest rate has run down the economic growth rate at least up to two years after applying the shock. It drifted towards zero afterwards. With the rise in bank interest rate growth, the cost of financing has been decimated resulting to investment reduction. On the other hand, with the rise in bank interest rate, the inflation rate has been reduced. It is obvious shock standard deviation in bank facilities interest rate has, up to three periods after applying the shock, left positive impact on inflation rate, and the impact has been reduced to zero. Economic growth reveals like bank facilities rate, such a variable has a negative impact on Iran's economic growth. The rise in legal reserve rate has been one period after applying the shock up to zero in the second period. On the other hand, the impact of legal reserve rate has been positive on inflation rate. It has been shown that shock standard deviation reduces inflation rate in legal reserve rate. The rise in oil revenues leads the rise in economic growth rate, thus, reduced to zero up to two periods after applying the shock. With increasing oil revenues, by the government's expenses increase as well. Thus, it leads to the rise in demand, and also, economic growth indoors. Conclusions & Suggestions Based on the results, implementation of monetary policy in Iran has negative effect on economic growth, which is also consistent with the Iran Economy, so policymakers must use another policy for stimulating the economic growth. Put on the agenda.

Mixed- Asset Portfolio Optimization

Volume 27, Issue 19 , June 2021, , Pages 249-278

https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v27i19.84579

Abstract

Introduction At the core of any investment lies the return on investment. To gain a favorable return, an investor should take investment-related risks. The interaction between risk and return can lead to decisions on asset allocation. A key strategy in investment discussions is diversification ... Read More Introduction At the core of any investment lies the return on investment. To gain a favorable return, an investor should take investment-related risks. The interaction between risk and return can lead to decisions on asset allocation. A key strategy in investment discussions is diversification in investment portfolio. Investment strategy is undetermined in different assets such as security, gold, currency and cryptocurrency. Despite the temporary recession and success of certain assets, it is hard to prioritize investment among assets (in terms of risk and return) to ensure that the investor makes the highest profit at the lowest risk. Thus, the present research used the Mean-CVaR model along with the Extreme value theory (EVT) based on Copula’s theory to estimate the correlations among time series. It used the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) estimation method to measure the joint distribution of assets regardless of the normality assumption of data, collinearity, priorities and weights of investment in assets as optimal values. Theoretical Framework Diversification of conventional investment portfolio which only involves cash and security with alternative assets such as goods, currency and estate helps to decrease the correlation of assets and increase its resistance to severe changes in stock market. It, thus, helps to improve the performance of investment portfolio (Fischer & Lind-Braucher, 2010). Moreover, due to the low correlation between conventional assets and cryptocurrency and its high-efficiency, cryptocurrency is a good instrument to be combined with diverse investment portfolios and can increase the Sharpe ratio (Chuen et al., 2017). One assumption of the distribution of financial return time series is the normality of data. However, in actuality, many financial return time series are not normal. When the normality assumption is violated, Value at Risk (VaR) is a proper measure. Risk exposure value is not an integrated risk measurement and due to the lack of sub-aggregation property, may be inefficient in optimizing investment portfolio. Thus, researches introduced Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as an integrated measure and an alternative for VaR. Methodology As the return on financial assets is marked by a fat tail and is not marked by a normal distribution of data, to better predict the distribution of series, EVT was used. Moreover, Copula’s theory was adopted and the structure of correlations among series as time-varying was modelled via the dynamic conditional correlation estimation and the joint distribution of assets was analyzed regardless of data normality and collinearity. Then, the Mean-CVaR model was used to estimate the risk exposure value and set the investment priorities and weights among assets in Tehran Stock Exchange, Gold Coin, USD and Bitcoin as optimized values. In this research, for an optimal allocation of investment among four above assets in daily return, Tehran Stock Exchange index (TEPIX) was used. The daily return on investment in Gold Coin (the old version) was estimated in Rials. That of USD was estimated in Rials in Tehran free market. Finally, the daily return on investment in Bitcoin was estimated in Rials between October 2014 and April 2018. Results & Discussion A negative correlation was estimated via DCC-Copula between certain assets, which shows that when a particular asset gains higher return on investment (than the mean value), the other asset does not follow the same trend. Thus, investors are capable of diversifying their portfolio accordingly. Prediction of return on assets showed that the highest expected daily return on investment belonged, respectively, to Bitcoin, Gold Coin, Dollar and Tehran Stock Exchange. Moreover, as the optimized weights showed for zero CVaR, due to the low variance, the greatest investment weight was investment in Tehran Stock Exchange. The higher the investor’s risk-taking, the greater the investment weight of Gold Coin and Bitcoin. Conclusions & Suggestions Considering the investor’s risk-taking level, if s/he tolerates the least risks, s/he is suggested to make the most investment in securities. An increase in the minimum expected return on investment is followed by an increase in the investment share of Gold Coin and Bitcoin. Thus highly risk-taking investors are suggested to invest in Bitcoin and low risk-taking counterparts are suggested to invest in Gold Con. Considering the conditional Sharp (C-Sharp) ratio optimal portfolio indicated a better performance of various portfolios than any other asset, and the best performance of the portfolio includes Gold Coin with more than 70% and Dollars and Bitcoins with an equal weight. Furthermore, according to the C-Sharp ratio in the optimal portfolio, the minimum weight of Gold Coin is 60% and the maximum share of Dollar and Bitcoin is 20%.

Original Article

Financing companies based on knowledge and transparency strategy of optimal allocation of banking resources

gholamreza sabouri; Azam Babaki rad; Seyed Vahid Shalbaf Yazdi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 28 December 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.90933.1475

Abstract

In today's era, the wheels of Iran's economy revolve around banks, and this clearly shows the key role of banks in providing financial resources for economic enterprises. The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a policy model for the transparency of resource allocation in the banking ... Read More

Original Article

Validation of the transparency policy model of resource allocation in Iran's banking system (case of study: knowledge-based companies)

gholamreza sabouri; azam babaki rad; Seyed Vahid Shalbaf Yazdi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 15 March 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91678.1499

Abstract

Given the banking system's position in the country's economic system and banks' significant contribution to attracting financial resources, we expect the banking system's performance to significantly impact the economy. If the attraction of financial resources by banks leads to the allocation of resources ... Read More

پژوهشی

*****

Alireza Abroud; Abdonaser Derakhsan; Farshid Ahmadi Farsani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 21 October 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.90004.1455

Abstract

این پژوهش با هدف بررسی رابطه بین سرمایه عملیاتی، نگهداری وجوه نقد و عملکرد مالی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام شده است. سوال اصلی پژوهش این است ... Read More این پژوهش با هدف بررسی رابطه بین سرمایه عملیاتی، نگهداری وجوه نقد و عملکرد مالی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام شده است. سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که آیا سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی این شرکت‌ها تاثیر معناداری دارند؟ در این پژوهش، فرضیه‌هایی مبنی بر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت‌ها مطرح شده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه‌ها، از داده‌های مالی 110 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در یک دوره زمانی 10 ساله از سال 1391 تا سال 1400 استفاده شده است. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از اسناد سازمان بورس و با کمک نرم‌افزار اکسل تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار آماری استاتا صورت گرفته است. در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از روش رگرسیون چند متغیره با داده های ترکیبی بهره گیری شده است. آزمون‌های چاو و هاسمن برای انتخاب الگوی مناسب برآورد مدل‌ها و آزمون‌های والد تعدیل‌شده، والدریج و پسران نیز برای بررسی فروض کلاسیک رگرسیون استفاده شده است.به لحاظ نظری، این پژوهش به غنی‌سازی ادبیات موجود در زمینه مدیریت مالی و عملکرد شرکت‌ها کمک می‌کند و از نظر کاربردی، نتایج این پژوهش می‌تواند برای مدیران شرکت‌ها، سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیلگران بازار سرمایه و سیاست‌گذاران مفید باشد تا تصمیمات بهتری اتخاذ کنند. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش بیانگر این است که سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد.

Original Article

Scenario Making for Adopting Suitable Monetary Policy in reducing Economic Crises Caused by Widespread Diseases on Iran’s Economic Sectors (Case of Coronavirus outbreaks)

Mojtaba Hajizadeh; mehrzad ebrahimi; hashem zare

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 07 August 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.84244.1328

Abstract

In this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the corona disease on value added of economic sectors (agriculture, industry and mine and services) in Iran. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Islamic ... Read More In this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the corona disease on value added of economic sectors (agriculture, industry and mine and services) in Iran. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Islamic Parliament Research Center and the central bank's input-output table were used to collect data. Also, to analyze the data, the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model and MATLAB software were used. The results showed that among the economic sectors, the service sector is more vulnerable to the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus. Also, adoption an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on value added of studied economic sectors compared to the base scenario (not adopting a monetary policy). Also, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors compared to the scenario 1 (5% reduction in the legal reserve rate) and adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors in comparison to scenario 2 (10% reduction in the legal reserve rate). Based on this, it is suggested to the monetary authorities to adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate demand and prevent the reduction of production of goods and services) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) in order to reduce the value added of economic sectors.

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Original Article

Assessing the performance of development banking in Iran's economy; Using a composite Indicator

mohammad Zhoola Zadeh Saki; kamran nadri; mahdi ghaemi asl

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 31 August 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.86701.1393

Abstract

Among the most important reasons for establishing development banks are:- Helping to rebuild the economies of countries;- Strengthening infrastructure and strategic sectors;- Separating commercial loans from development loans.High risk and long-term returns are a major feature of large-scale economic ... Read More

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Original Article

Investigating the effect of oil price fluctuations and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns in Iran

mahnaz mojaradi; masoud nikooghadam; behnam elyaspour

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 November 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.88640.1433

Abstract

The interaction between the stock market and the elements of the economic system has always been one of the important issues in Iran's economy On the other hand, considering that Iran is an oil exporting country, oil price changes have always been one of the important factors of economic fluctuations ... Read More

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Original Article

Investigating the effect of working capital facilities on the credit risk of Melli Bank of Iran

Seyyed Abdollah razavi; mahdis moraveji

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 November 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89666.1449

Abstract

Banking facilities in developing countries play a pivotal role in financing and economic growth. Additionally, the strategic management of working capital is crucial for reducing credit risk and enhancing financial flexibility. While credit facilities are vital to the economy, they require effective ... Read More

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Original Article

Designing the Model of Asset and Liability Management in Keshavarzi Bank of Iran

Yaqoob shahniaee; Amin Nazemi; Navid Reza Namazi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 09 November 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89202.1443

Abstract

The main goal of this study is to design a suitable model of asset and Liability management of the Agricultural Bank with the purpose of achieving the set goals of the bank.In this research, an attempt has been made to present the optimal value of assets, debts and cash in accordance with the structure ... Read More The main goal of this study is to design a suitable model of asset and Liability management of the Agricultural Bank with the purpose of achieving the set goals of the bank.In this research, an attempt has been made to present the optimal value of assets, debts and cash in accordance with the structure of the financial statement. Given the determination of multiple goals and limitations in the banking system and the experience of the past years, the model used in this paper is the fuzzy ideal planning model with fuzzy constraints. The proposed model of the paper has the ability to present the optimal values of each items of balance sheet for the upcoming years according to the conditions of the previous years. In order to reach the final solution, the number of ten ideals has been determined, and by solving the general model, the value of the objective function has been significantly improved, and by converting fuzzy numbers into definite numbers and by using the fuzzy ideal planning model, a suitable model of asset and debt management of financial year 2023 has been determined for this bank. And based on the results arising from the implementation of the model, we achieved seven ideals, including maximizing profit in the amount of 32,433,646 million Rials (31,634,068), complying the limitation of the ratio of facilities to deposits in the amount of (0.86) 0.85, improving the bank's share from the deposits of the bank system in the amount of 3,553,820,000 million Rials (3,273,413,445), complying the limitation of capital adequacy in the amount of (0.08) 0.0825, reducing the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets in the amount of (0.77) 0.66, green banking in the amount of (0.9) 0.091 and liquidity risk in the amount of 70,108,198 million Rials (0) and not achieved three less important ideals include increasing the amount of the items of balance sheet 4,433,821 302 million Rials (4,514,025,887), increasing the value of some items of assets compared to the total by (0.9) 0.84 and the amount of claims from banks and credit institutes is greater than the amount of their debits by the amount of 0.234 (1).

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Original Article

Analysis of the impact of oil shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of industry, agriculture and services Community Verified icon

alireza tamizi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 20 November 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.90396.1462

Abstract

In different production sectors, in addition to the internal influencing components, there are some external influencing components, the occurrence of a shock in them can lead to an increase in uncertainty in the production of said sectors. Exchange rate and oil price are among these things for all countries. ... Read More In different production sectors, in addition to the internal influencing components, there are some external influencing components, the occurrence of a shock in them can lead to an increase in uncertainty in the production of said sectors. Exchange rate and oil price are among these things for all countries. And the effect of the price of oil for the exporting and importing countries of this type of energy is not the same and will be different. There are not many studies on the effect of these factors on the production of different economic sectors of oil exporting countries, and the direction of the effect of this component is not clear for these countries. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the impact of oil shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of industry, agriculture and services in Iran using the ARDL model for the seasonal period from 2010 to 2021. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and library and documentary research method. The website of Iran Statistics Center and Central Bank was used to collect information. The results of this research show that for the agricultural sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in the short term is positive and significant, but the effect of oil shock is not significant. In the industry and mining sector, oil price shock has a significant and positive effect among the studied variables. Meanwhile, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the production of this sector is not significant. For the service sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and oil shock is not significant and interpretable. For the industry and mining sector, among the examined variables, in the long term, only the growth of oil prices at the level of 10% is significant and positive. The effect of the increase in the price of oil is also positive on the production value of the industry and mining sector and can lead to an increase of 0.16% in this variable.Community Verified icon

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Original Article

Compilation of Iran's criminal policy model in the field of economic and financial crimes with grounded theory approach

Mehrdad Ghani; Seyed Hossein Hosseini; Seyed Mehdi SeyedzadehSani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 20 November 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.90070.1457

Abstract

Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and ... Read More Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and financial crimes from the degree are of great importance, on this basis, the purpose of this research is to develop a model of Iran's criminal policy in the field of economic and financial crimes.Research method: Qualitative research method with grounded theory approach. Data collection has been done through theoretical literature, policy documents, authentic research reports, and in-depth interviews, and data analysis has been done in three stages of open, central, and selective coding. The sampling method was also purposeful and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation and finally the research interviews reached theoretical saturation with 17 interviews.Findings and results: The results based on three stages of coding, analysis of 17 in-depth interviews with participants and content analysis of several original research works and some rules and conventions resulted in 130 open codes, 46 core codes and 16 selective or core codes to a paradigm model of criminal policy. Iran's participation in the field of economy has reached. The main selective codes include: causal conditions (feeling the need for cooperative criminal policy, accepting the principle of divine sovereignty and reforming judicial and economic structures); Background conditions (civil society empowerment, strong government response and control and prevention); Intervening conditions (surveillance and monitoring and formulation of policies based on research and evaluation); Central phenomenon (Iran's collaborative criminal policy in the field of economy); Strategies (integrated institutional cooperation, the principle of balance and coordination, strengthening policy and legislation and community response); The consequences are (drawing the coordinates of Iran's criminal policy in the economy, implementing the ideals of the country's criminal policy and general tax compliance), which can answer the research questions in a paradigmatic model, as well as a comprehensive and complete description of the state of the country's criminal policy.

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Original Article

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the price index of banks and credit institutions in Iran's capital market

Arash danialian; mahbube delfan

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 24 December 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89716.1452

Abstract

Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables, economic sanctions and global commodity price index on the price index of banks and credit institutions in Iran's capital market.Method: This study is using time series data with monthly frequency during ... Read More

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Original Article

Dynamic analysis of economic factors affecting interest rates in Iran: Evidence from the post-Corona era

Bahare Bazargan; ali cheshomi; mahdi khodaparast

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 29 December 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.90501.1464

Abstract

The interest rate is an important indicator for the economy that is affected by economic factors. Macroeconomic factors that reflect the state of the economy are important for the behavior of interest rates. In addition, major global shocks such as COVID-19 can also affect interest rates. Therefore, ... Read More

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Original Article

The Role of Good Governance in Mitigating the Effects of Credit Crunch in Iran's Industrial Sector

Zeinab Shabani Koshalshahi; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri; Ali Akbar Naji Meidani; Mohammad Ali Falahi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 31 December 2024

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2024.89019.1437

Abstract

This paper tried to study the effect of credit crunch on the stagnation of industrial sector and their bilateral relationship. In addition, the role of good governance on the intensity of the relationship between these two will be examined. For this purpose, the MS-IVAR model is used. The credit crunch ... Read More

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Original Article

Investigating the Impact of Economic Sanctions Shocks on Foreign Trade of Iran’s Mining Sector (RDCGE Model Approach)

Soheil Pourhaji Hosseini; Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri; Mohammad Hosein Mahdavi Adeli; Narges Salehnia

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 08 January 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.89454.1444

Abstract

The necessity of need to reduce dependence on foreign currency income from oil and move towards providing a significant part of the required currency through non-oil exports is felt more. In this regard, paying attention to the mining sector due to its rich and underground reservoirs is a suitable solution ... Read More

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پژوهشی

Prioritizing Managers' Financial Behavioral Biases on Banks' Liquidity Control (AHP approach)

Nasrin Hashemizadeh; Mohammad Javad mohagheghnia

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 08 January 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.90764.1472

Abstract

Today’s behavior regarding risk control and using appropriate management tools can strengthen banks' performance in face of financial challenges. The aim of present study is to prioritize behavioral biases of managers on liquidity control of banks in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, a questionnaire ... Read More

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Original Article

The effect of different components of liquidity on Iran's production through the exchange rate channel

Mohsen Valizadeh; hossein asgharpour; behzad salmani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 08 January 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.89244.1441

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism (money volume, monetary base, and liquidity) on GDP through the exchange rate channel in the Iranian economy. In this regard, seasonal data for the period 1375-1399 and the Bayesian autocorrelation ... Read More

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پژوهشی

Dynamics of Industrial Production Index and Inflation on Financial Market (Focusing on Industry Index and Total Index of Iranian Stock Market)

Abdonaser Derakhsan; Alireza َAbroud; Farshid Ahmadi Farsani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 22 January 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91158.1483

Abstract

The link between stock returns and macroeconomic indicators has been a debatable phenomenon at all times. industry index reflects performance of stock market and state of industry and production of each country. Potential macroeconomic factors may have significant long-term effects on industry index. ... Read More

Original Article

Investigating the profitability of the stock market and the financial efficiency of companies with capital projects, including the interactive role of the financing method

Ali Talib Ahmed Aljhayyish; Mohammad Javad Saei; Mohammad Ali Bagherpour Velashani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 February 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91415.1487

Abstract

The development of companies leads to the creation of wealth only when there is a rational cost-benefit relationship between the cost of capital and the efficiency of the projects. The cost of capital is influenced by the method of financing, and its yield is reflected in the accounting profit and finally ... Read More

Original Article

The impact of using Bitcoin on the perceived trust, security and potential of e-commerce in Iran

Hamidreza Arbab; Ali Maziki; Navid Khalilazar

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 February 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91088.1481

Abstract

The rapid rise of digital currencies, most notably Bitcoin, has fundamentally reshaped global commerce, offering decentralized, secure, and efficient mechanisms for conducting financial transactions. This study investigates the specific impact of Bitcoin on e-commerce in Iran, focusing on key perceived ... Read More

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Original Article

Financial development and green energy development: Evidence from the new MMQREG approach

sabah faisal; taghi ebrahimi salari

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 04 February 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.90613.1467

Abstract

Today, due to climate changes caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, renewable energies play an important role in achieving sustainable development. In addition, it is inevitable for countries to join the global village and develop the financial sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to ... Read More

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Original Article

Strategies for developing entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan non-governmental organizations with an emphasis on financing and profitability

Hosain Moghadamkia; Haydar Amiran; Abodollah Kouloobandi; Mohhamad Reza Kabranzad ghadim

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 12 April 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91874.1504

Abstract

Background and Objective: Entrepreneurship opportunities can be seen as a potentially feasible and profitable investment that offers a new innovative product or service to the market. Therefore, various strategies can affect the development of entrepreneurial opportunities, of which financing strategies ... Read More

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Original Article

Investigation housing rental bubble and factors affecting it in Iran: Evidence from the Kalman filter and ARDL approaches

Ali Akbar Naji Meidani; faeze afzali; Hadi Esmaeilpour Moghadam

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 16 April 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.90554.1465

Abstract

One of the most fundamental sectors in economic and social development planning is housing. One of the most important challenges facing the housing market is the existence of speculation in this market, which leads to a market bubble and, as a result, imposes high costs on society. The main objective ... Read More

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Original Article

The Effect of Working Capital Management on Accelerating the Speed of Achieving Optimal Liquidity in the Banking Industry: Generalized Moments Approach (GMM)

Mohammad Hosein Fatheh; mohsen najafi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 29 April 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.91808.1503

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of working capital management on accelerating the speed of achieving optimal liquidity in the banking industry. This study is applied and from a methodological perspective, the correlation is of a causal (post-event) type. The statistical population ... Read More

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Original Article

The effect of using electronic banking tools on bank productivity

Habib Ansari Samani; Hasan Amoozad Khalili; Morteza Abbasizadeh; Hadis Dalvandi

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 03 May 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.89550.1447

Abstract

1- IntroductionWith the rapid growth of information and communication technology, electronic banking will play a central and important role in various fields. In this framework, determining the impact of the expansion of electronic banking on banks' costs can be very important. The use of electronic ... Read More 1- IntroductionWith the rapid growth of information and communication technology, electronic banking will play a central and important role in various fields. In this framework, determining the impact of the expansion of electronic banking on banks' costs can be very important. The use of electronic banking tools has positive and negative effects on the productivity of bank branches and causes the final effect of each of these tools to be different. This research examines the role of electronic banking on productivity in 16 bank branches in Yazd province in the period of 1396-1400. 2- Theoretical frameworkElectronic banking is the optimal integration of all activities of a bank. In other words, by using new information technology based on banking processes and in accordance with the organizational structure, it provides the possibility of providing needed services to customers. This type of banking provides facilities for customers to access banking services without the need for physical presence and using safe intermediaries. Also, it is the use of technology that allows bank customers and other stakeholders to interact with the bank without intermediaries and through various electronic channels.3- MethodologyThis research examines the effect of using electronic banking tools on the productivity indicators of the bank in Yazd province. Therefore, the research data has been obtained using the data provided by the bank's planning and development department, financial department, support department and human capital department; The data is extracted monthly, quarterly and annually. The statistical population of the research includes all branches (16 branches) of the bank in question during the years 1396-1400 in Yazd province. 3-1- Dependent variableThe branch productivity index consists of the combination of four main criteria. The main criteria include equipment, allocation, arrears and performance. Each of these four criteria is calculated by 2 to 5 indexers.3-2- Explanatory variablesExplanatory variables are: electronic banking tools (modern documents and cards), human capital (number of employees, educational qualifications and service history), building (age of branches), deposit interest rate. In the general division of bank documents, they are: small, modern and card documents. Modern documents and cards are known as electronic banking tools.3-3- Research modelThe research model is as follows:(1) Pr = f (Hc, Eq, Eb, Er, Ek)where Pr is the productivity index, Hc is the vector of human capital variables, Eq is the vector of building and equipment quality and quantity variables, Eb is the vector of electronic tools use indicators, Er is the interest rate vector, and Ek is the vector of small documents. 4- DiscussionThe results of Model 1 show that the amount of modern documents has a significant relationship with productivity and has a very small but negative effect on the equipment index. Also, card documents and small documents do not have a significant relationship with the equipment index. The number of manpower, service history and education level of employees have no significant relationship with the equipment index. The age of the building has a positive and significant relationship with the equipment index. The deposit rate also has a negative and significant relationship with the equipment index. In model 2, there is no significant relationship between the number of modern documents and the card with the allocation index. Also, the number of micro documents has a positive and significant relationship with the deposit allocation index. In addition, there is no significant relationship between high education degree and employees' service history with allocation index. In model 3, there is a positive and significant effect between the amount of modern documents and the arrears index. But the amount of card documents has no significant relationship with the arrears index. Also, micro documents do not have a significant effect on the arrears index. In addition, the high level of education and the number of employees have a negative effect on the arrears index. But the service history does not affect the arrears index. In model 4, modern documents have a significant and negative relationship on the performance index. On the other hand, micro documents have a significant and positive relationship on this index. There is a positive and significant relationship between the average level of education and performance index. The deposit interest rate also has a negative effect on the performance index, and the age of the building does not affect the performance index. In the 5th model of the research, the general and summarized mode is 4 productivity indicators under the index of the total score, and the title of productivity is determined from the total score. According to the targeting of the studied bank in the indicators affecting productivity, finally, the number of documents has been used as a factor affecting productivity. The number of modern documents and cards do not have a significant relationship with the productivity index. Therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected and it cannot be said that electronic banking documents have been able to influence the productivity of the bank. Among the variables of education degree, service history, building age and deposit rate, only service history has a significant relationship with the productivity index, and it cannot be said that these variables play a significant role in the bank's productivity.5- Conclusion and SuggestionsAccording to the findings of the research, it is not possible to say that electronic banking has a significant relationship with the bank's productivity, and this shows that electronic banking has not been able to reduce banking costs and create profitability as it should have been. Therefore, the main hypothesis of the research regarding the impact of electronic banking on productivity indicators can be rejected. Therefore, according to the research results, the most important suggestion is: Increasing the quality of providing electronic banking services by updating equipment and software.

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پژوهشی

Educational Model For Promoting Tax Culture with emphasis on education in schools and universities

Sayyed Ahmad Mokhtari; Shokrollah Khajavi; Reza Tehrani

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript, Available Online from 07 May 2025

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2025.92554.1527

Abstract

The key to developing education is, therefore, developing tax culture is not possible without education. The purpose of this study is to design an educational model for promoting tax culture. The method of this study is descriptive and qualitative, according to the research propositions, which was carried ... Read More

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