Macroeconomics
hasan hasankhani; Nasser Elahi
Abstract
With the expansion of computational and simulation capacities, factor-based models have also found a special place in the economics literature. Unlike theoretical models that mainly focus on maintaining theoretical frameworks, these models have the ability to explain the behavior of economic agents without ...
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With the expansion of computational and simulation capacities, factor-based models have also found a special place in the economics literature. Unlike theoretical models that mainly focus on maintaining theoretical frameworks, these models have the ability to explain the behavior of economic agents without considering the representative agent assumption and other cumbersome assumptions far from reality. In this article, while describing the economic conditions after the sanctions shock, with the agent-based modeling method to simulate and evaluate the behavior of the economic factors effective in the currency structure of Iran after the sanctions shock caused by the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA NetLogo software has been paid. Considering that at least three exchange rates are created after the shock of the sanctions, the results show that there are at least four policy bottlenecks in front of the currency policymaker in this situation: a) the amount of reserves of the central bank b) the volume of activities Speculative c) The gap between the policy rate and the unofficial market rate of the currency d) The length of time period of the adjustment of the policy rate of the currency by the central bank. The lower the amount of foreign currency and gold reserves available to the central bank, the more speculative activities, the greater the gap between the policy rate and the informal market rate of the currency, and the shorter the period of adjustment of the policy rate by the central bank, the jumps The exchange rate and currency fluctuations will be more severe, so that the central bank may lose all its capacity and foreign reserves as a result of interventions, and with the complete inactivity of this bank, the sanctioned country will leave the stability of the currency system and falls into the abyss of currency crisis.
Macroeconomics
farshid Kheirollahi; Seyed Javad Delavari; omid yousefi
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
The financial crisis of the last decade has impacted financial markets significantly and has led to a remarkable reduction in the financing through the issuance of shares by companies and financial institutions. Additionally, it has given rise to an increase in the amount of ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
The financial crisis of the last decade has impacted financial markets significantly and has led to a remarkable reduction in the financing through the issuance of shares by companies and financial institutions. Additionally, it has given rise to an increase in the amount of debt in capital structure of companies; therefore, many companies are unable to repay their debts during the of crisis, exposing companies to financial distress and opportunistic behaviors
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
With the occurrence of the global financial crisis, the price of metals, oil, and including the country's oil revenues will decrease, which will initially cause a budget deficit through the reduction of government revenues. With the decrease in government revenues, the amount of government expenditures decreases, and the result is a decrease in investment and a decrease in demand, and the creation of economic imbalances, including recession in the economy. that this effect on exporting companies is more tangible due to the reduction of the general level of prices in the world markets; As a result, warehousing costs and other costs in these companies increase and they face the problem of lack of liquidity; On the other hand, it lowers investors' expectations of the growth and profitability of these companies, which ultimately increases the possibility of not being able to repay the interest and principal of debts. As a result, capital gains in investment companies decrease and put the companies on the verge of financial helplessness. When companies are on the verge of financial helplessness, they may take profit management in order to deal with the crisis and not lose shareholders, in order to make their situation more stable. Also, the management can influence the company's profit through optional accrual items in ways such as early recognition of revenues or postponing the recognition of expenses. What draws the attention of experts to the quality of accruals as an indicator of the quality of profit; The information content of accrual items components, in other words, the separation of accrual items components can provide information about the company's performance, but the market reacts to this information slowly; Therefore, the components of accruals can be considered as an indicator for determining the improvement or deterioration of the company. The aim of this study is the investigation of the impact of the global economic crisis on financial distress, earning management, and the pricing of accruals of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
3- METHODOLOGY
The multivariate regression model and combined data were used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. In order to show the explanatory power of the variables and to evaluate their importance, paired t-test was used. To test these effects, 104 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2008 to 2020 were studied.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
There is a significant difference between financial helplessness during the period of the global financial crisis and the period after it; therefore, it can be expected that the global financial crisis will expose companies to financial helplessness and even bankruptcy. There is a significant difference between profit management during the global financial crisis and the period after it; when a company is exposed to a financial crisis, the company's management is affected by reducing its rewards, changing management and losing its reputation. Companies to secure financing and attract investors by making the financial performance of companies attractive during the period of financial crises. , have enough motivation to hide the deteriorating performance of the company by resorting to accounting choices, and finally, there is a significant difference between the pricing of accruals during the global financial crisis period and the period after it; Therefore, during the period of the global financial crisis, managers who try to manage profits to hide the dire situation of the company, there is an incentive for them to do this through the manipulation of discretionary accruals that are part of the net profit.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The findings of this study indicate the impact of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of companies and put them on the verge of financial distress. This occurs due to the inability of financing and as well as the motivation of managers to hide the deteriorating performance of the company by taking measures such as earning management and the pricing of accruals increases. Therefore, during the period of the global financial crisis, managers who attempt to manage profits to hide the dire situation of the company, have the incentive to do so by manipulating discretionary accruals that are part of net profit; Because accruals provide information about the company's performance and because it is an indicator to determine the improvement or deterioration of the company, there is always the motivation to manipulate it within the framework of accounting principles through the time of recognition of revenues and expenses as a tool for managing profits by management.
