Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy shocks on financial stability and household behavior within the framework of a small open economy. Given the structural fragility of Iran's economy in the face of fiscal volatility, the primary aim is to analyze the dynamic direct and indirect effects of increased taxation on output, consumption, exchange rates, inflation, and the budget deficit. For this purpose, a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Iranian economy is employed. Oil revenues and sanctions are incorporated into the model as exogenous shocks. The model, comprising 41 parameters, was simulated over 100 periods, and both impulse responses and impulse response functions were generated. The results indicate that monetary shocks lead to an increase in the interest rate and a decrease in inflation, whereas tax shocks increase consumption and reduce labor supply. Oil and sanction shocks have limited effects on consumption but exacerbate financial instability. A diagnostic test reveals negligible estimation error; however, issues related to data scaling are notable. It is recommended that empirical validation be conducted using Iranian data, alongside more precise modeling of exchange rate dynamics, to strengthen policy recommendations.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on the efficiency of financial institutions in Iran. To conduct this study, statistical data from the period 1980 to 2022 related to the Iranian economy and a regression analysis using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method were used. In the model, the variables of inflation uncertainty and inflation rate, exchange rate uncertainty and exchange rate growth, corruption control, government efficiency, and economic growth were used as explanatory variables to explain the behavior of efficiency financial institutions. The results obtained in this study show that during the period under study, inflation and inflation uncertainty have increased the efficiency of financial institutions, but exchange rate growth and exchange rate uncertainty have decreased the efficiency of financial institutions. The results also indicate a positive effect of institutional quality indicators and no significant effect of economic growth on the efficiency of financial institutions. These findings reaffirm the importance of paying attention to the stability of the foreign exchange market and improving institutional quality in the current conditions of the Iranian economy.

Abstract Although various studies have investigated the economic effects of money laundering, there is a lack of studies, especially in the country, on the impact of macroeconomic variables on money laundering. Therefore, in this study, the impact of negative shocks to macroeconomic variables on the volume of money laundering in Iran was investigated using the structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model during the period 1994-2023. The results showed that shocks of -10, -20 and -50 percent in real GDP growth increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 4.01, 7.66 and 13.44 percent, respectively. Also, shocks of +10, +20 and +50 percent in the inflation rate increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 3.29, 4.49 and 7.59 percent, respectively. In addition, exchange rate shocks of +10, +20, and +50 percent increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 2.09, 3.14, and 6.07 percent, respectively. Gini coefficient shocks of +10, +20, and +50 percent also increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 1.04, 2.01, and 5.09 percent, respectively. According to the research results, when economic growth is low and inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and income inequality are high, money laundering grows as a natural reaction of the informal market. Accordingly, simultaneous economic (inflation and currency control), social (reducing inequality and building culture), institutional (laws and supervision), and technological (artificial intelligence and blockchain) solutions were proposed.

Abstract The aim of the present study was to investigate the distributional effects of monetary policies in the Iranian economy using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this study, the distributional effects of monetary policy were investigated in the form of designing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households in terms of liquidity constraints and liquidity non-constraints. In this regard, statistical data for the period 1990-2024 were used. The financial asset channel is considered as one of the most important channels of monetary policy transmission to the real sector of the economy. Improving the distribution of income has always been an important goal that has been considered by political and economic policymakers. The results of the estimated model indicated that the monetary policy shock led to a worsening of income distribution among households. In addition, the shock increased the value of financial assets in households without liquidity constraints, and led to a decrease in consumption and income in households with liquidity constraints due to lack of access to financial markets and financial assets. Based on these results, it can be said that inappropriate monetary policies can exacerbate class gaps. Increased liquidity without proper control increases inflation and reduces the purchasing power of low-income groups, while holders of financial and capital assets (such as real estate and stocks) benefit from increased asset prices.

Abstract The monetary policy transmission mechanism is a central issue in macroeconomics and exhibits considerable heterogeneity across countries due to differences in institutional arrangements and structural characteristics. This study aims to examine the role of structural factors—namely financial structure, labor market stickiness, and industrial composition—in shaping the transmission of monetary policy in the selected countries over the period 2000–2022. To this end, a Panel Conditional Vector Autoregression (PCHVAR) model is employed to analyze the dynamic responses of macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks. The results indicate that a contractionary monetary policy leads to a decline in output and a temporary increase in inflation in the short run; however, these effects gradually diminish, and in the long run, evidence of relative monetary neutrality emerges. Nevertheless, the analysis of maximum eigenvalues and forecast error variance decomposition suggests that the structural stability of the economic system in response to shocks is weak and that shocks exhibit high persistence; therefore, the reliability of long-run interpretations is limited. From a policy perspective, the findings underscore the necessity of strengthening financial institutions, developing capital markets, enhancing labor market flexibility, and paying due attention to the industrial structure of the economy as key prerequisites for improving the effectiveness of monetary policy and reducing heterogeneity in its transmission mechanism.

Abstract The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the regime dependence between the oil market and financial markets (including gold prices and stock market returns) with an emphasis on the key role of uncertainty arising from high and low oil price fluctuations. This research is conducted using monthly statistical data from 1380 to 1403 and the advanced approach of smooth transition vector autoregression is used to model the dynamic behavior of variables in different economic regimes. The results of this study show that oil prices, as a key transition variable, exert different effects on financial markets in high and low volatility regimes, which highlights the importance of examining the regime-based approach in financial analysis. The model estimation results for stock market returns indicate that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, exchange rate, oil price, liquidity and inflation rate have positive and statistically significant effects (at the 5% error level) on the stock market, while gold price shows a negative and significant effect. These effects are significantly stronger in the nonlinear part, which is consistent with the reduction of the variance of the variables in this regime and reflects economic stability. These findings indicate a greater sensitivity of the stock market to macroeconomic factors in stable conditions, which can be useful for predicting and managing investment risk. In the case of gold price, the model confirms that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, exchange rate, oil price, liquidity and inflation rate have positive and significant effects, while capital market returns exert a negative and significant effect on gold price. These effects are also more prominent in the nonlinear part and are consistent with the lower variance in this regime, indicating the role of gold as a safe haven asset in stable conditions.

Abstract The increase in non-performing loans and the growing complexity of the economic environment have posed serious challenges for banks in reducing credit risk. In this context, Bank Melli Iran, as the largest state-owned bank in the country, is more exposed than other banks to the consequences of credit risk due to the breadth of its operations and its strategic role in the monetary system. The purpose of this study is to propose a comprehensive model for identifying and explaining strategies to reduce credit risk in Bank Melli Iran.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and adopts a mixed-methods (qualitative–quantitative) approach. In the qualitative phase, effective components and strategies for credit risk reduction were identified and refined using qualitative content analysis and the fuzzy Delphi method. Subsequently, in the quantitative phase, interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was employed to level and structure the relationships among the components, and finally, the proposed model was tested and validated using structural equation modeling (SEM).

The findings indicate that economic factors, governance-related factors, and credit and managerial policies play the most significant causal role in reducing credit risk, while other factors such as human resources, process management, and information systems are positioned at the more influenced levels of the model. Overall, the results suggest that focusing on effective credit policies and the efficient management of economic variables plays a key role in improving asset quality and controlling credit risk in Bank Melli Iran.

Abstract این تحقیق به بررسی نقش شکست‌های بازار مالی در تضعیف اثربخشی سیاست پولی و کارایی هدف‌گذاری تورم در اقتصاد ایران می‌پردازد. در اقتصادهای در حال‌توسعه‌ای مانند ایران، توسعه مالی ناقص و وجود شکست‌هایی مانند بازارهای مالی کم‌عمق، سلطه مالی دولت، بخش غیررسمی گسترده و ناکارایی نظام بانکی، کانال‌های انتقال سیاست پولی (مانند کانال نرخ بهره و اعتبار) را مختل می‌کند. در نتیجه، سیاست‌های پولی انقباضی ممکن است نتوانند تورم را به‌طور مؤثر کنترل کنند و حتی گاه با انحراف منابع به سمت بخش‌های غیرمولد، خود به تداوم تورم دامن زنند. با وجود تلاش‌های بانک مرکزی برای هدف‌گذاری تورم، نرخ تورم در ایران به‌دلیل این شکست‌های ساختاری در بازار مالی، مزمن و نوسانی باقی مانده است. شواهد تجربی در ایران (مانند نرخ سود حقیقی منفی و انبساط نامؤثر نقدینگی) نشان می‌دهد که بازار مالی در ایران نه تنها به عنوان یک کانال تسهیل‌کننده، بلکه به عنوان یک مانع در برابر سیاست‌های پولی عمل می‌کند. این پژوهش با روش تحلیلی-تجربی و با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا (DSGE) برای داده‌های فصلی دوره 1403-1370 به تحلیل این تعاملات می‌پردازد. پارامترهای مدل با روش بیزین برآورد خواهند شد. هدف اصلی، تحلیل ارتباط بین توسعه مالی و هدف‌گذاری تورم با درنظرگرفتن نقش شکست‌های بازار مالی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که توسعه مالی نقش محوری و تعیین‌کننده در تقویت کانال‌های انتقال سیاست پولی ایفا می‌کند. در چارچوب رژیم هدفگذاری تورم، شوک مثبت به شاخص توسعه مالی نه تنها متغیرهای واقعی اقتصاد را به شکل معنادار و پایداری افزایش می‌دهد، بلکه با فعال‌سازی مکانیسم شتاب‌دهنده مالی، تخصیص منابع را کارآمدتر کرده و بهره‌وری سرمایه‌گذاری را ارتقا می‌بخشد.

Abstract Exports play a significant role in the development of third world countries due to increased employment and income. In addition, exports can create huge opportunities such as access to innovation and advanced technologies and the mobility of capital goods. For this reason, it is essential for governments and economic policymakers to identify the factors affecting exports. The aim of the present study is to examine the effect of monetary policies on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran during the period 1990-2024. For this purpose, the fuzzy regression method was used. The findings of this study showed that money supply policies with a fuzzy coefficient (-0.0417, 0.0019) have a negative effect on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran. This coefficient confirms the point that the increase in the volume of money in the Iranian economy has led to higher inflation and increased production costs and, consequently, reduced the competitiveness of exported goods. Other findings also showed that the increase in the average per capita income level of other countries in the world and the increase in the real effective exchange rate have a positive effect, and on the other hand, the inflation rate and economic sanctions against Iran have a negative effect on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran.

Abstract In recent years, inflation in Iran has exhibited severe fluctuations and a persistently increasing trend. Consequently, economic research has focused on the relationship between inflation volatility and financial markets. As one of the most important investment instruments, stocks serve the primary goals of meeting future needs and enhancing welfare through wealth accumulation. Using monthly data from April 2011 to March 2023 (Farvardin 1390 to Esfand 1402), this study investigates the effects of inflation fluctuations on the total index and the industry index of the Tehran Stock Exchange. To this end, inflation volatility is first extracted using the long-memory FIGARCH model. Then, its impact on the aforementioned indices is estimated within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework in two separate models. The empirical findings reveal a significant negative long run relationship between inflation fluctuations and both stock market indices. Moreover, increases in the exchange rate and gold price lead to rises in the total index and the industry index, whereas an increase in the interest rate inflicts considerable damage on the stock market. Based on the results, prudent monetary policy management and control of inflationary volatility are recommended to economic authorities for improving stock market performance.

Abstract In a rational economy, stock price trends co-move with subjective cash flow expectations; however, if investors exhibit behavioral biases, stock price trends may instead co-move with subjective discount rate expectations. Therefore, this study investigates, for the first time, the comovement of stock prices in the Iranian stock market with subjective cash flow expectations, comparing it with subjective discount rate expectations. To this end, data were collected from the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Rahavard Novin database, and the analysts' consensus system over the period from 2011 to 2023. Furthermore, subjective cash flow growth expectations (SCF) and subjective discount rate expectations (SDR) were predicted using the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NNARX) model, and its predictive performance was compared with that of the traditional Vector Autoregression (VAR), Implied Cost of Capital (ICC), and Analyst Forecast Revision (RAF) models. Finally, the comovement of stock prices with the subjective expectations derived from the VAR, ICC, RAF, and NNARX models was examined. The results demonstrate that the NNARX model outperforms the RAF model, which in turn outperforms the ICC model, followed by the VAR model, in predicting SCF and SDR. Moreover, contrary to expectations, the covariance between the P/E ratio and SCF was negative, while the covariance between the P/E ratio and SDR was positive. This indicates an inefficient stock valuation pattern in the Iranian stock market, which can be attributed to economic sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, and investors' behavioral biases.

Abstract OPEC countries face a dual challenge of sustaining oil-led economic growth while mitigating environmental degradation. This study investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policies on per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 15 OPEC member states over the period 1995–2024. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) framework, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator was applied after confirming variables’ stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, and panel cointegration. The short-run empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic policy instruments do not exert a statistically significant impact on carbon emissions; instead, short-term emissions are primarily driven by structural factors such as population growth and per capita income. In the long run, however, government expenditures (fiscal expansion) and exchange rates exhibit a significant mitigating effect on CO2emissions. Conversely, monetary expansion (money supply) and population size act as key drivers of environmental degradation in the long run. Additionally, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated for the sampled countries. The error correction term (ECM=-0.12) indicates a relatively slow adjustment rate toward the long-run equilibrium. Policy implications suggest that OPEC policymakers should align monetary and fiscal frameworks by implementing green budgeting, directing bank credit toward low-carbon projects, and regulating liquidity to facilitate the energy transition.

Abstract The present study provides new insights into the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy for the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2024. For this purpose, first, the uncertainty of the economy as a whole is calculated with a stochastic volatility model based on conditional fluctuations of the variables of the inflation rate, exchange rate, and production growth rate. Wavelets are then used to examine how the relationship changes over time and at different frequencies. The key findings of this analysis showed that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran significantly depends on the time horizon. In the short term (2-12 months), a positive and significant regression coefficient of 0.32 was observed, indicating a positive and significant relationship between increased liquidity and economic uncertainty. This relationship is weaker but still significant in the medium term (1-3 years) with a coefficient of 0.18 and appears stronger than other horizons in the long term (more than 3 years) with a coefficient of 0.41. These findings are consistent with theories of structural inflation in developing economies, which show that in these economies, expansionary monetary policies are associated with increased economic uncertainty not only in the short run but also in the long run. Furthermore, the results indicate that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran strongly depends on economic and political conditions. Under sanctions, this relationship is stronger and more stable. The findings emphasize that the causality and nature of the relationship between liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty vary over time and at different frequencies.

Abstract The structural dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues, along with exposure to international sanctions and severe exchange rate fluctuations, has intensified instability and invisible linkages among its macro markets. This study aims to analyze the dynamic and asymmetric transmission of volatility among three markets—monetary base, oil prices, and exchange rates—using the advanced Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH) model over the quarterly period from 1991 to 2023. To accommodate extreme shocks and asymmetric effects, the Student's t-distribution and the GJR-GARCH specification are employed.
The findings reveal a very strong and stable network of volatility spillovers among these three markets, with their dependence structure exhibiting high persistence. At the intra-market level, negative exchange rate shocks have a far stronger impact on market volatility than positive shocks, whereas positive oil price shocks increase volatility, indicating an oil revenue-liquidity mechanism. Structural shocks resulting from severe sanctions have significantly altered the pattern of these spillovers. Meanwhile, the instantaneous and contemporaneous correlations among the markets are weak and insignificant, which may reflect extensive policy interventions and non-price mechanisms in the Iranian economy.
These results confirm the existence of a deep non-linear linkage through the risk channel, despite the absence of a simple linear relationship between returns. Based on the findings, operational policy solutions such as establishing an exchange rate stabilization fund with an oil-linked rule and implementing a conditional rule for managing the monetary base in response to exchange rate shocks are proposed.

Abstract This article, entitled “Investigating the Impact of Business Cycles on Stock Market Returns with Emphasis on the Automotive Group Using a Time-Varying Coefficients Approach and the TVP-VAR Model,” examines the dynamic relationship between business cycles (periods of economic boom and recession) and the returns of automotive group stocks in the Iranian economy. Given the severe economic fluctuations in Iran driven by sanctions, expansionary monetary policies, chronic inflation, and exchange-rate jumps, the need to investigate these relationships in a time-varying manner has become increasingly evident. To test the hypotheses, time-series data covering the solar years 1380 to 1404 and a Bayesian TVP-VAR model were employed. Key variables included automotive group stock returns, liquidity growth, inflation, the exchange rate, the interest rate, trading volume, and business-cycle indicators. The results showed that the effect of liquidity growth on automotive group returns is predominantly positive but unstable and is stronger during boom periods. Inflation exerts a significant and increasing negative impact that intensifies during deep recessions. Exchange-rate shocks also produce dual (both positive and negative) responses. By presenting impulse-response functions and time-varying coefficients, the TVP-VAR model clearly revealed nonlinear patterns that depend on the business cycle.

Abstract Currently, the Iranian economy is facing significant challenges due to uncertainties arising from severe exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, implementing appropriate monetary policies may lead to a reduction in uncertainties and their consequences in the Iranian economy. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy on reducing economic uncertainty arising from exchange rate fluctuations in high and low exchange rate regimes with monthly data from April 2012 to March 2013 using a threshold approach. The results showed that contractionary monetary policy using the interbank interest rate instrument, especially in a high exchange rate regime, significantly reduces economic uncertainties caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Threshold regression estimation showed that expansionary monetary policy (by increasing liquidity) does not have a significant effect on uncertainty in low exchange rate conditions, but it increases uncertainty in high exchange rate conditions. The results of this study emphasize that rising inflation and gold prices are two important factors in increasing economic uncertainties caused by exchange rate instability. Policy implications of this study may contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy tools in different exchange rate regimes in reducing economic uncertainties.

Abstract This study examines the effect of banking system financial soundness on inflation stability, with an emphasis on the moderating role of monetary policy, in 10 high-inflation countries over the period 2000–2025. The main objective is to investigate whether the financial soundness of banks affects inflation stability and whether the magnitude of this effect is influenced by the stance of monetary policy. For this purpose, inflation stability is considered the dependent variable, while the financial soundness index, monetary policy index, and the interaction between these two variables are considered the main explanatory variables. In addition, the exchange rate, government size, fiscal deficit, economic growth, trade openness, and domestic credit to the private sector are included as control variables. Given the presence of heterogeneity, outliers, and severe inflationary shocks in the countries under investigation, the model is estimated using robust regression. The results show that the financial soundness index, monetary policy, and the interaction term between financial soundness and monetary policy are statistically significant at the 5% level. In addition, the exchange rate, government size, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and private sector credit have significant effects, whereas the effect of trade openness is statistically insignificant. The findings indicate that the effect of financial soundness on inflation stability depends on monetary policy conditions.

Abstract The aim of this paper was to examine the impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction in developing countries. Financial inclusion is the access and use of affordable and quality financial products and services by individuals and firms, including payments, bank accounts, credit, and insurance, that are provided in a sustainable and responsible manner. On the other hand, unequal access to financial resources can be a significant barrier to accessing and using economic opportunities and reduce entrepreneurial activity, which is an important and decisive factor in economic success. In fact, easy access and cost-free use of financial services can help the poor to build capital and assets so that they can better protect themselves in adverse economic conditions. This study used statistical data from 43 developing countries for the period 2004-2025 and the panel vector autoregression method. The results of this study showed that the shock from the financial inclusion index in developing countries led to an improvement in income distribution and a reduction in poverty and inequality. In addition, the model also showed that the shock from the financial inclusion index led to an improvement in income distribution, although the effect of this shock was weak in developing countries.

Abstract This paper examines the effects of exchange rate policies and liquidity creation on key macroeconomic variables in Iran. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2023, we employ a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the transmission mechanisms of these shocks. The Iranian economy has long grappled with the interdependence of exchange rate and monetary policies, presenting significant challenges for policymakers. A substantial portion of government budget expenditures is financed through oil export revenues and withdrawals from the Foreign Exchange Reserve Account. This dynamic compels the Central Bank to purchase foreign currency, consequently expanding the monetary base. Given this linkage, monetary authorities must carefully assess the impact of oil revenue fluctuations when formulating policies to ensure economic stability. Our study specifically investigates: The exchange rate policy channel (transmitted through exchange rate adjustments). The monetary policy channel (transmitted through liquidity creation). Key findings reveal that: Exchange rate shocks have a more pronounced inflationary effect compared to liquidity creation shocks. These shocks also lead to reductions in both consumption and income, underscoring their contractionary impact on the economy. These results highlight the critical role of exchange rate management in Iran’s macroeconomic stability and suggest that policymakers should prioritize mitigating exchange rate volatility to curb inflation and support economic growth.

Abstract Aim and Introduction:
The precautionary demand for money is usually influenced by uncertain factors and changes in cash flows, and is dependent on assets with high liquidity. This study aims to identify the role of qarz al-hasanah (interest-free loans) in the precautionary demand for money using the Canian and Tarka model.
Methodology:
The specified equations were estimated using quarterly time series data from the years 1377 to 1402 using the ARDL method, and the coefficient obtained from the ECM estimation is used to identify long-term relationships.
Findings:
The results show that the expansion of the capital market has a greater impact on the allocation of money demand than on liquidity preferences, and gold strengthens the precautionary demand for money during periods of economic instability, especially when monetary policies face challenges in dealing with crises. Furthermore, inflation significantly affects adaptive behaviors and changes in money demand, and qarz al-hasanah plays a key role in enhancing liquidity and managing short-term financial gaps. Additionally, a long-term relationship exists between the qarz al-hasanah variable, as an independent variable, and the precautionary demand for money.
Discussion and Conclusion:
The precautionary demand for money is influenced by several factors, including capital markets, loans, inflation, and asset preferences. The expansion of the capital market has a greater impact on the allocation of money demand than on liquidity preferences. Gold, as an asset, strengthens the precautionary demand for money during periods of economic instability and challenges the effectiveness of monetary policy. Inflation affects adaptive behaviors, and currency also creates an immediate precautionary response in money demand. Qarz al-hasanah is confirmed in smoothing liquidity cycles and managing both short-term and long-term money demand, and i t effectively contributes to increasing liquidity and filling short-term financial gaps.

Abstract Empirical identification of the role of the life cycle in the fluctuation of stock returns according to economic conditions will improve the performance of investors and will improve the accuracy of company managers' forecasts. Based on this, in this research, the relationship between the stages of the company's life cycle and the fluctuation of stock returns according to the variables of macroeconomic conditions was investigated in the form of two hypotheses. The research is applied in terms of purpose and using the post-event approach, and based on the method, it is of the descriptive-correlation type. The statistical population of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and the sample number was 157 companies during the years 1397 to 1401. To test the hypotheses, multivariate regressions were used in the Eviews13 software environment. The results of the research show that the volatility of stock returns in the maturity stage is less than the recession stage and in the growth stage it is more than the recession stage. If the exchange rate is taken into account, the volatility of stock returns in the stages of emergence, maturity, growth and decline is lower than in the recession stage. If the inflation rate is taken into account, the volatility of stock returns in the stages of emergence, maturity and growth is higher than in the stage of recession, and in the stage of decline it is not different from the stage of stagnation. If the bank interest rate is considered, the volatility of stock returns in the stages of emergence, maturity and growth is higher than in the stage of recession, and in the stage of decline, it is not different from the stage of recession. And finally, if the GDP is considered, the fluctuation of stock returns in the stages of emergence, maturity, growth and decline is not significantly different from the recession stage.

Abstract این پژوهش با هدف بررسی رابطه بین سرمایه عملیاتی، نگهداری وجوه نقد و عملکرد مالی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران انجام شده است. سوال اصلی پژوهش این است که آیا سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی این شرکت‌ها تاثیر معناداری دارند؟ در این پژوهش، فرضیه‌هایی مبنی بر تاثیر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت‌ها مطرح شده است. برای آزمون این فرضیه‌ها، از داده‌های مالی 110 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در یک دوره زمانی 10 ساله از سال 1391 تا سال 1400 استفاده شده است. جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از اسناد سازمان بورس و با کمک نرم‌افزار اکسل تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار آماری استاتا صورت گرفته است. در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از روش رگرسیون چند متغیره با داده های ترکیبی بهره گیری شده است. آزمون‌های چاو و هاسمن برای انتخاب الگوی مناسب برآورد مدل‌ها و آزمون‌های والد تعدیل‌شده، والدریج و پسران نیز برای بررسی فروض کلاسیک رگرسیون استفاده شده است.
به لحاظ نظری، این پژوهش به غنی‌سازی ادبیات موجود در زمینه مدیریت مالی و عملکرد شرکت‌ها کمک می‌کند و از نظر کاربردی، نتایج این پژوهش می‌تواند برای مدیران شرکت‌ها، سرمایه‌گذاران، تحلیلگران بازار سرمایه و سیاست‌گذاران مفید باشد تا تصمیمات بهتری اتخاذ کنند. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش بیانگر این است که سرمایه عملیاتی و نگهداری وجوه نقد بر عملکرد مالی شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد.

Abstract One of the most fundamental sectors in economic and social development planning is housing. One of the most important challenges facing the housing market is the existence of speculation in this market, which leads to a market bubble and, as a result, imposes high costs on society. The main objective of this research is to investigate the housing rental bubble and its influencing factors in Iran during the period 1990-2024. Therefore, first, using the Kalman filter, the rent bubble is calculated, and then the factors affecting it are analyzed using the ARDL approach. Findings from the estimation of the housing rent bubble showed that a significant portion of the housing rent changes in this period were not only due to changes in fundamental variables but also due to the formation of a price bubble, so that since 2019, due to increasing inflation, decreasing people's purchasing power, and increasing rents, the amount of the housing rent bubble has increased. The results of the ARDL approach also showed that in the long run, real liquidity and the unofficial exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with the housing rental bubble. In addition, the results indicate that GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and bank interest rate have a negative relationship with housing rent bubbles in the long run. This study emphasizes the government's influence on the housing market through monetary policy with liquidity and interest rate instruments. Therefore, authorities should pay attention to the effects of monetary policy on the housing market.

Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and sectoral composition in emerging economies. Utilizing a panel ARDL model on a dataset of 45 emerging markets over the period 1995–2023, the study uncovers a robust empirical pattern: financial development is significantly associated with structural transformation, characterized by a declining share of agriculture and a corresponding increase in the share of industry—particularly services. The results also indicate the presence of bidirectional causality between financial development and the industrial and service sectors, suggesting a mutually reinforcing dynamic in the structural transformation process. However, the paper critically evaluates this general finding within the specific institutional context of Iran. It argues that under a state-dominated, bank-based financial system marked by financial repression and directed credit policies, the classical link between finance and structural change becomes distorted. The findings reveal that in such a setting, financial expansion does not necessarily lead to efficient resource allocation or support productive transformation and may even exacerbate structural rigidities. The paper concludes that for countries like Iran, quantitative financial expansion is insufficient. Rather, qualitative financial development—anchored in deep institutional and policy reforms—is a prerequisite for fostering a healthy and sustainable structural transition.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION
With the passage of time and the importance of international interactions between countries in the field of economy, topics such as currency market, foreign trade, capital flow in the international arena, etc. became very important in economic theoretical foundations. One of the issues that is emphasized a lot in the field of international economy is the management of the foreign exchange market and, as a result, issues such as the mechanism of determining the equilibrium exchange rate and exchange rate deviation, which almost all countries are involved in with varying intensity and weakness. . Undoubtedly, the stability of the currency market and the establishment of a real equilibrium exchange rate in this market are of double importance in developing countries. Therefore, managing the exchange rate and preventing its fluctuation and deviation from an equilibrium value has become one of the most important concerns of policymakers in these developing countries, including Iraq. Because, any cross-sectional fluctuation or exchange rate deviation in the short and long term can create challenges for other sectors of the economy, as well as acute imbalances at the macro level and the balance of payments crisis in developing countries are often the direct result of deviation from the long-term equilibrium path is the exchange rate.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The exchange rate is one of the important tools in the hands of monetary authorities in all countries of the world in general and developing countries in particular, due to its high sensitivity to the investment environment, business environment and economic conditions. The most appropriate exchange of facts and data is political economy. The excessive sensitivity of macroeconomic variables to the change of the Iraqi exchange rate is due to the deterioration of the real macroeconomic environment.
On the other hand, foreign trade plays an important role in determining the fate of any country, and this important economic sector connects the domestic economy of the country with the international economy. Trade is so important that some see it as a driver of development. Different economic schools offer different views on business. Some people like the liberals consider it a factor of peace, realists consider it a factor of increasing national power if the trade balance is positive, and some others like; Marxists propose free trade as a tactic of developed countries to dominate developing countries. The exchange rate is directly related to foreign trade and any increase or decrease can affect the trade balance and competitiveness of domestic producers against foreign goods inside and outside. There are positive relationships between the exchange rate and domestic production, therefore, an increase in the exchange rate can be useful for national production, but it should be noted that the increase in the exchange rate should not be sudden and fluctuating, because Fluctuations in the exchange rate create uncertain conditions for the country's producers and exporters, which can have a negative impact on industrial and agricultural production, employment, etc. The political will of the government should be independent of any political dealings with the exchange rate, so that in this way it can prevent the fluctuations of the exchange rate and its adverse effect on exports and consequently on the power of the country. In fact, policy-making in this area should be technically appropriate to the conditions of domestic and foreign inflation and away from any considerations such as institutional, party interests, election time, and budget deficit.
3- METHODOLOGY
To investigate the effect of deviations of the equilibrium exchange rate on the foreign trade relationship of Iraq for the years 2005 to 2021. Therefore, in the first step, the influencing factors on the equilibrium exchange rate were examined using the DOLS method, and the second step was to examine the short-term and long-term effects of deviations of the equilibrium exchange rate on the exchange, export, and import relationship using the ARDL method.
4- RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In this paper we examine three hypotheses. According to the negative and significant short-term and long-term deviation of the exchange rate with the exchange relationship, it shows exports and imports. Therefore, in the first hypothesis; the effect of exchange rate deviation on the exchange relationship of Iraq is negative, it was confirmed and the results showed that the effect of exchange rate deviation on the exchange relationship of Iraq is negative and significant. In the second hypothesis; the negative and significant effect of exchange rate deviation on Iraq's exports has been tested and this hypothesis has been confirmed. But, the third hypothesis; the exchange rate deviation had a negative and significant effect on Iraq's imports, and this hypothesis was also confirmed.
5- CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTION
Considering the negative and significant effect of exchange rate deviations on exports, imports and the exchange relationship, it is suggested that the currency policies in Iraq be designed in such a way that the real exchange rate moves towards the equilibrium level and from high deviations the exchange rate should be reduced as much as possible. In this regard, the reduction of the nominal value of money is introduced as a solution to eliminate the deviation of the real effective exchange rate from the long-term equilibrium path, which the use of this policy is based on the complementary policy that increases the prices in the country. Can be used as a practical solution and economic policy makers in Iraq use the equal purchasing power method due to the simplicity and availability of information from price indices, inflation rate and consumer price index to estimate Use the exchange rate. Finally, since the exchange rate is influenced by political relations, the imposition of economic sanctions, the price of oil and the occurrence of war, it is strongly affected. Improving political and economic relations with neighboring countries and major economic powers can be effective in this regard.