Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract Introduction: The banking network plays a prominent role in the financing of businesses. In recent years, due to increased government spending and disproportionate increases in government revenues, a budget deficit has been created, and due to the high dependence between the government and the banking network, in some cases increased current spending has been provided through borrowing from the banking network.
Theoretical Framework: One of the most important factors that effect on the formation of the financial crisis is the instability in other financial markets, especially the exchange rate, which affects the GDP of the country and the current expenditures of the government, and affecting the performance of the banking sector subsequently. By affecting the government budget, the exchange rate can affect the motivation of the government and government-affiliated companies to obtain loans and facilities from the banking network. Also, the increase in the exchange rate by increasing the cost of goods and services leads to a decrease in disposable income and subsequently a decrease in people's consumption. According to dependence of industrial sector to imports of intermediary goods, changes in exchange rate causes a change in the supply sector (Boschi & D' Addona, 2019). On the other hand, exchange rate volatility due to the uncertainty and increases in the cost of production has been effective on government debt to the banking system and current expenditures (Adrian & Shin,2010).
Methodology: In this study, using the wavelet transform model during the period of 1388-1397 monthly, the nominal exchange rate volatilities, government debt to the banking network, and current government expenditures are divided into three levels by using wavelet transform. In fact, wavelet transform explains the deviation from the main trend. To examine the relationship between the variables, the use of patterns such as Granjer causality is used, which provides a momentary criterion of causality test, therefore, it is unable to analyze the dynamics and reliability of variables relationship. In addition, in such methods, because the lag of variables can be used, it is possible to eliminate the immediate effects. Spectral analysis is used to solve this problem (Aguiar, et al.,2008).
Results and Discussion: In the short term, there is no significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations. Interestingly, there is a significant correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. This indicates that about 17% of the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and government debt to the banking network are consistent. Significantly, there is a relatively high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations  and current government spending fluctuations in the short term, and about 32.5 percent of changes and fluctuations in each have led to a change in the other one, and in fact It can show the lack of independence of the country's banking network and the dependence and attitude of the government to provide current expenses from this source. There is a positive and significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations in the medium term. Of course, only about 19% of the fluctuations in each are positively followed by other fluctuations. In the medium term, the movement between exchange rate fluctuations and government debt to banking network fluctuations increases compared to the short-term (0.26), and this can also indicate the delayed effects of the exchange rate. Interestingly, there is a high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations, and over a longer period the fluctuations between the two are more intense in terms of intensity and direction. The time factor plays a very important role in the correlation between government debt fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. The correlation between these two cases started from about 0.17 in the short term and reached 0.53 in the long run. In terms of time factor, it has shown more biger about fluctuations in current government expenditures and fluctuations in government debt to banks than the other cases. The correlation between the two fluctuations has risen from 32.5 percent in the short term to 76 percent in the long term.
Conclusions and Suggestions: government and the banking network have a close relationship with each other, and this relationship is due to the fact that many of the country's banks are state-owned be greater in the long run. In fact, this is one of the main reasons for the non-performing loans in the country's banking network, and the government has used its bargaining power to cover its current expenditures, which have been very volatile in recent years and take loans and did not pay on time. In fact, based on the results, banking network has been a tool to cover current government expenditures, and due to exchange rate fluctuations in the country and increasing government current expenditures, government debt to the banking network can increase and reduce the credit ability of the banking network and can lead to inefficient allocation of resources.

Abstract Extended abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Earning of companies is one of the important factors in economic growth and development and earning manipulation is one of the main challenges of market efficiency that researchers often use accounting data to predict earning manipulation, while non-accounting data also play an important role in predicting earning manipulation. Due to the fact of the conducted research in order to develop the Beneish model has been formed solely because of accounting data, so the effects and consequences of non-accounting variables in all models have been ignored. This study tries to examine the nonlinear relationships of accounting and non-accounting variables and examine the effect of both variables simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive power of Beneish model and the development of the Beneish model (DBM) by non-accounting variables and to compare the accuracy of earning manipulation prediction of the research models using a  hybrid Artificial Neural Network trained by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA). 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK The development of the Beneish model (DBM) was done through emphasizing non-accounting variables, including the Information Asymmetry (IS) and Product Market Competition (PMC). (Asgari Alouj et al, 2020). Another study by (Pourali & Kouchaki Tajani, 2021) was conducted to compare the accuracy of companies' profit manipulation predictions using colonial competition algorithm and genetic algorithm. The results showed that colonial competition algorithm with 93% accuracy and 7% error and genetic algorithm with 76% accuracy And 24% error could have predicted the coefficients of the variables of the profit manipulation model. The results also showed that the ability to predict the accuracy of profit manipulation model coefficients by colonial and genetic competition algorithms is more accurate than the prediction of the initial model of Banish (1999) and the modified model of Banish (Kurdistani & Tatli, 2016). 3- METHODOLOGY This research has been developed the Beneish model) BM) with non-accounting variables including information asymmetry (IS) and competition in the product market (PMC). The data of 184 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2006-2017 has been collected and the prediction accuracy of research models has been compared by two algorithms in training of Artificial Neural Network (ANN): Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA) in detecting and identification of earning-manipulator companies. In this research, the auditor's report has been used as an alternative solution and the review process has been done such that the audit report of the sample companies has been fully reviewed and studied and if there were the cases as an index of earning manipulation (regardless of the type of report acceptable - adjusted - rejected and no comment), the sample companies would be selected as the earning-manipulator firm and the number 1 would be allocated. Also, if there were no clauses as an index of earning manipulation, for example, the report is adjusted for another reason, it would be selected as a non-earning manipulator and the number zero would be allocated. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION After reviewing and auditing the audit reports of the sample companies of 1840 data-year, 900 data-year companies has been classified at the low level of earning manipulator companies and 940 data -year companies has been classified at the high level of earning manipulator companies. In this study, the prediction power of earning manipulation companies has been investigated by hybrid  Artificial Neural Network method and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and also by hybrid Artificial Neural Network method and Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA) and a comparison has been made between the accuracy of the research models. The areas under Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the Beneish model have been estimated up to 0.6001 and 0.5538 using the hybrid neural network trained by Imperialist competition algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm, respectively.  The area under the ROC curve in the Beneish model has been estimated in the range of 0.5 - 0.6 and indicates the Beneish model test has been rejected in detecting and identifying earning manipulator companies. Therefore, it can be seen that the separation of the two groups of earning manipulator and non-manipulator companies is not significantly different from the separation of the chance model and it can be said that the Beneish model is a completely random model in the Tehran Stock Exchange and cannot be used to identify earning manipulator companies. Also, the best prediction accuracy of the Beneish model has been estimated up to 57.55 and 55.71 percentages using the hybrid neural network method trained by the Imperialist competition algorithm and the particle swarm optimization algorithm, respectively. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS Findings indicate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model has increased from 57.55 to 63.86 percentages and 55.71 to 59.84 percentages by the ANN-ICA and ANN-PSO, respectively. Development of the model, area under curve (AUC) of ROC has been increased and the prediction error has been reduced to 6.31 percentages by the ANN-ICA and to 4.13 percentages by the ANN-PSO, but the test result is still poor. In fact, the accuracy of model prediction by the ANN-PSO has been improved compared to the ANN-ICA. However, it can be seen that relying on these variables by itself could not easily identify earning manipulator and non-manipulator companies. Considering that the proposed model with the variables of Competition in the Product Market and Information Asymmetry has not significantly improved the accuracy of the prediction model, it can be seen that there is not a significant relationship between these variables and earning manipulation variable. In order to judgement whether or not the results of ANN-ICA and ANN-PSO of research models are significantly different, the Wilcoxon test has been performed at a significance level of 5% as the statistical method of non-parametric. The results of Wilcoxon test show that the normal statistic of Wilcoxon test is more than the critical value of 1.64 and the significance level is less than 0.05 in both methods .Also, the average rank has been calculated up to 548.5 before the development of the model and has been calculated up to 5549.7 after the development of the model, so the research hypothesis is confirmed.

Abstract Abstract Expanded   1- INTRODUCTION Developments and fluctuations in economic growth will cause significant changes in the economy and its variables. Therefore, examination of the cause of fluctuations and instability in economic growth can eliminate or improve their impact. During the last 4 decades, economic adjustment policies - which have been proposed by the international community to various countries with the aim of stablization of the economy in the short run and changing the structures of the economy in the long run - have been implemented in Iran. This study was conducted to investigate the compatibility of economic adjustment policies in Iran.   2-THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Economic growth of a country is the change in production of a country compared to the previous year. Therefore, a change in any of the components of a country's GDP causes a change in economic growth and, consequently, causes fluctuation or instability in it. Oil revenues as one of the most important export revenues from natural resources, depending on the type of use (in current consumption or investment) affect economic growth or instability. On the one hand, oil wealth can accelerate the pace of development due to the level of financial development and increase national income, on the other hand, long-term economic growth will be damaged due to imbalances in different sectors of the economy. Financial liberalization on the one hand, citing neoclassical theories and the free flow of capital from high-capital economies to low-capital economies, life cycle models and increasing private savings and attracting investment in the portfolio, increases project returns. on the other hand, some countries were affected by the implementation of financial liberalization and faced severe financial crises, followed by economic instability. Trade liberalization due to the transfer of knowledge and technology to a country can improve economic growth. Trade also allows producers to access larger markets. Improved productivity through the use of untapped resources, more distinctive products with higher quality and lower prices, and ultimately increased production and surplus consumer welfare. Despite the positive effects of trade liberalization, this policy will destabilize economic growth in developing countries that have few products to offer to the world market. Privatization is a fundamental structural change of ownership, which is transferred from the public sector to the private sector, and this change of ownership leads to fundamental changes in the basic incentives and motivations of owners and managers of enterprises and the goals of those enterprises. the effect of privatization on economic growth can be demonstrated through microeconomics theories, the theory of new institutional economics, the theory of public choice and the theory of representation. In the empirical literature, the importance of the role of government is how it can provide a stable environment for economic growth. Examination of the issue of government spending (as an indicator of its size) and GDP growth, there are conflicting results, and the relationship between government spending and economic growth depends on the sources of financing government spending and government performance. Thus, if government spending is financed through borrowing, the relationship between government spending and economic growth is negative, and if government spending is financed through taxes, the relationship between government spending and economic growth is positive.   3- METHODOLOGY In this study by using the vector auto regressive model (VAR), the relationship between economic adjustment policies on fluctuations and instability of economic growth during the period 1981 to 2019 has been investigated. the annual fluctuations of economic growth were selected by using the exponential conditional variance (EGARCH) model with intervals 1 and 2 to show the variance inequality and the effects of the three policies of privatization, trade liberalization and financial liberalization were measured. The variables of trade intensity, volume of assets transferred to the private sector and the amount of foreign assets of the banking system are considered as indicators of trade liberalization, privatization and financial liberalization policies, respectively.   4- DISCUSSION Out results showed that the variables of financial liberalization have the lowest (0.6%) and the variables of commercial liberalization have the highest (21%) share in the volatile changes of economic growth. Also, financial liberalization only increases in the short run and does not affect instability in the long run. The trade liberalization variable will reduce economic instability, while the surge in oil revenues will increase instability in economic growth. The government expenditure variable in this study has a dual behavior, so that in the short run will reduce instability and in the long run will increase the instability of economic growth. Privatization policies have the most short-term (0.0173) and long-term (0.0052) effects on economic growth instability and will increase economic growth instability.   5- CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS Examination of the results of the instability response to various variables shows that not only economic adjustment policies incompatible in terms of their impact on growth fluctuations, but also not compatible with government policies. In the short and long term, privatization and financial liberalization policies will increase and trade liberalization policies will reduce instability. While the government's fiscal expansion policy (increase spending) will reduce instability in the short run and increase economic growth instability in the long run. Thus, the simultaneous implementation of trade liberalization policies and increased government spending (financial expansion) will reduce instability in the short and long term. Because both policies are compatible with each other and their results in the short-term and long-term will reduce the instability of economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt trade protection policies (both in terms of imports and exports) because these policies will not only improve the trade balance and increase the level of trade liberalization, but also the instability of economic growth. and will also reduce production.

Abstract  
1- INTRODUCTION
Economic uncertainty is one of the important and influential factors on economic policies and their results, and in such a situation, rational decisions are replaced by other methods. Various studies has shown the effect of economic uncertainty on inflation, investment, economic growth, consumption and demand for money.
Uncertainty is difficult to measure due to its invisibility, and as the uncertainty measurement methods improve, the measurement of its effect on various economic variables and markets and the prediction of their behavior in response to the actions of economic agents will be more accurate.
The main aim of this article is to measure the economic uncertainty index by using news published in social networks. This method of measurement has become very important with the widespread use of social networks.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Uncertainty is one of the most controversial concepts in the philosophy and methodology of economics. The history of the concept of economic uncertainty goes back to David Hume. There are three categories of theories about economic uncertainty. The first group believes that the future reality is unchangeable and predetermined and economic decision makers have perfect information. In this view, there is no such thing as uncertainty and the world is in complete certainty. 18th century the economists of were the first group to present this theory. The second group believes that the reality of the future is unchangeable and predetermined and the decision makers are able to know the future. These economists use objective conditional probability functions to solve the future uncertainty problem. The third class considers the future reality to be changeable and unknown. The starting point of these theories started from the study of the Chicago school economist Frank Knight titled "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit". He clearly distinguished between the two concepts of risk and uncertainty. Keynes also reached the same results as Knight. In general, in a situation where the economy has a high level of uncertainty, the theories of the first and second category have a good explanation. But in confronting with exogenous shocks such as the corona virus epidemic, war and financial crisis, the concept of uncertainty will be more appropriate in the theories of the third category. This study will measure this index based on fundamental uncertainty (the third category).
 
3- METHODOLOGY
In this article, the economic uncertainty index in Iran was measured from January 2017 to December 2020 by monitoring and analyzing 3,117,960 news from 28 popular and influential Iranian Telegram channels. To analyze these news, we used "supervised machine learning" methods. In the first step, 13,404 news items were labeled by human evaluators according to their impact on uncertainty. The labels had two modes "affecting uncertainty" and "neutral". Then by using four algorithms ("C4.5" from decision tree methods, "Multilayer Perceptron" from artificial neural network methods, "Logistics" from function-oriented methods and "Simple Bayes" from Bayesian methods) labeling of the whole news was done. The economic uncertainty index was calculated numerically and based on the number of news items that affect economic uncertainty, the measurement and value of this index was standardized, and then the quality of the index was evaluated with historical evidence, relabeling and comparison with the index based on Google data.
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Among the 4 media-based uncertainty indicators, 3 indicators can better explain the historical events of this period. Among them, the best performance is determined by C4.5 algorithm from the decision tree methods. After this algorithm, multilayer perceptron, logistic has the best performance and the weakest performance belongs to the simple Bayes method. Media-based economic uncertainty index trend with C4.5 method is consistent with the important events of the study period, in such a way that the highest level of uncertainty occurred during the period when Trump announced his withdrawal from the JCPOA until the official withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. In general, it can be said that the fluctuations of the economic uncertainty index have been limited and have several jumps, which are due to the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the oil embargo and the assassination of Sardar Soleimani.
In the logistic algorithm, the highest level of uncertainty dates back to the end of 2020. The period that coincides with Trump's presidential election. The level of economic uncertainty increases after Trump's official withdrawal from the JCPOA and reaches its peak with oil sanctions.
The output of the multilayer perceptron algorithm indicates that the average level of uncertainty has not changed significantly.  In the simple Bayes algorithm, the highest level was also reached during the period of the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the increase in enrichment.  The results of the regression showed that economic uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the average logarithm of the exchange rate with multilayer perceptron, logistic and simple methods. This effect is larger in the multilayer perceptron model, which had better performance based on machine learning indicators.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The calculated economic uncertainty index is consistent with the important events of the study period, such as the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran’soil sanctions, and the escalation of the US confrontation with Iran in the assassination of Sardar Soleimani. It is suggested that daily calculation of this index be used to reduce uncertainty in the managing future events. We employed GARCH model to test effect of Media-based Economic Uncertainty index on Iranian exchange rate. The results showed that Economic Uncertainty index has poisitve effect on exchange rate.

Abstract Given the dependence of the country's economy on banks as the most important source of financing for companies, it is important to study the factors affecting the performance of the banking system; Therefore, in this study, the effect of exchange rate shocks, crude oil prices, total stock index and government budget on the performance (profitability) of the country's banking system in the form of 12 scenarios based on the profitability response of the banking network to 2%, 5% and 10 Shock% was addressed in the mentioned variables. For this purpose, research data were collected from the SAM matrix of the Majles Research Center in 2011 and the data-output table of the Central Bank in 2016. Also, the dynamic recursive dynamic calculus model (RDCGE) and Math Lab software were used to analyze the data. The results showed that the informal exchange rate and crude oil prices have an inverse effect and the total government stock index and budget have a direct effect on the profitability of the banking network; So that if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the informal exchange rate, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.73, 2.01 and 2.57%, respectively. Also, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% is applied to the price of crude oil, the profitability of the banking network will decrease to a maximum of 1.41, 1.63 and 2.03%, respectively. In addition, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the total stock index, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.47, 0.97 and 1.52%, respectively. Finally, if a positive shock of 2%, 5% and 10% enters the government budget, the profitability of the banking network will increase to a maximum of 0.38, 0.44 and 0.61%, respectively.

Abstract   1- INTRODUCTION Considering that cryptocurrencies exhibit commodity characteristics such as demand shocks, high price fluctuations, etc., cryptocurrencies can be compared with the behavior of the gold and oil markets (except when there is uncertainty about the supply conditions of gold and oil. There is no such uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market). Therefore, due to the commodity nature of Bitcoin, the price of oil and gold can affect the price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies. It seems that cryptocurrencies can play the role of a safe haven for commodity market investors, so the cryptocurrency market can cover the fluctuations in gold and oil prices. Commodity markets, which this study focuses on gold, oil and cryptocurrencies, have a series of characteristics. It seems that the gold market has surpassed the cryptocurrency and oil market in absorbing information, while the cryptocurrency market has higher price fluctuations than the gold and oil markets. Empirical evidence shows that Bitcoin can have a close relationship with the commodity market.Therefore, due to the commodity nature of Bitcoin, the price of oil and gold can affect the price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies.بنابراین، به دلیل ماهیت کالایی بیت کوین، قیمت نفت و طلا می تواند بر نوسانات قیمت ارزهای رمزپایه تأثیر بگذارد. Therefore, due to the commodity nature of bitcoin, the price of oil and gold can affect the fluctuations of the price of crypto-currencies. بنابراین، به دلیل ماهیت کالایی بیت کوین، قیمت نفت و طلا می تواند بر نوسانات قیمت ارزهای دیجیتال تأثیر بگذارد. Can't load full results Try again Retrying...   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Every person in the financial markets who has an asset portfolio tries to increase or maintain the value of his asset portfolio. The position of each asset in the portfolio has two characteristics: return (price change) and risk (price volatility). The behavior of asset portfolio owners is such that they try to increase returns and reduce risk. In this framework, they buy or sell assets in their portfolio in order not only to prevent the value of their asset portfolio from decreasing, but also to increase the value of their wealth. This behavior of the capital owners leads to the creation of connections between the global markets, including oil, gold, and cryptocurrencies, so that their yield fluctuations are connected to each other through the risk spillover effect. The asset allocation models have been investigated in a practical way for about half a century. The most well-known asset allocation model is the mean-variance strategy (modern portfolio theory), which was first developed by Markowitz (1952) to describe the process of optimal capital allocation, assuming a fixed investment opportunity set, between different asset groups over a period.     3- METHODOLOGY In this study, the 𝑉𝐴𝑅− 𝑀𝐺𝐴𝑅𝐶𝐻 − 𝐺𝐽𝑅 – 𝐵𝐸𝐾𝐾 model has been used in order to investigate the asymmetric effects of turbulence spillover between the oil, gold and bitcoin markets because of the following advantages. First, this model has high flexibility. Second, in this model, unlike constant conditional correlation (CCC) models, the conditional correlation changes over time. In addition, it is possible to check several markets at the same time. The existence of the covariance equation makes it possible to examine the simultaneous relationship between two markets. In the BEKK model, the fluctuations of a market are affected by the fluctuations and shocks of other markets, the shocks of that market and the covariance of the markets. In other words, the effects of the markets on each other, which is reflected in the delayed covariance, have an effect on the fluctuations of the markets. These effects can be symmetrical or asymmetrical. Also, this model makes it possible to have a dynamic dependence between the fluctuations of the variables. The only disadvantage of this model is that it is not suitable for examining more than three or four markets due to the increase in parameters.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The results indicate that the contribution of the memory of turbulence in explaining the current turbulence is greater than the impact of past shocks. The impact of past impulses and the memory of the turbulences of cryptocurrencies is high on the turbulences of this market. In other words, it can be said that fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market are significantly explained by the past impulses of this market. The results show that there is one-way turbulence spillover from the Bitcoin market to the gold market and the oil market, but the opposite is not true. The results of the study also indicate leverage effects in the markets. The leverage effects of the gold market shock along with the oil and bitcoin market shocks on the gold market are significant. The leverage effects of the oil market shock along with the gold and bitcoin market shocks are also significant on the oil market and the leverage effects are also significant for the bitcoin market. The results of the study indicate leverage effects in the markets, in other words, positive and negative shocks have different effects on price fluctuations, and bad news has a greater effect than good news on price fluctuations. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از تأثیرات اهرمی در بازارها است، به عبارت دیگر شوک های مثبت و منفی تأثیر متفاوتی بر نوسانات قیمتی دارند و اخبار بد تأثیر بیشتری نسبت به اخبار خوب بر نوسانات قیمت دارند. The results of the study indicate leverage effects in the markets, in other words, positive and negative shocks have different effects on price fluctuations and bad news has a greater effect on price fluctuations than good news. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از تأثیرات اهرمی در بازارها است، به عبارت دیگر شوک های مثبت و منفی تأثیر متفاوتی بر نوسانات قیمتی دارند و اخبار بد تأثیر بیشتری بر نوسانات قیمتی نسبت به اخبار خوب دارند. Can't load full results Try again Retrying...

Abstract Sustainable development is a development that has the ability to establish a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. More precisely, it can be said that sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation, without harming the ability of future generations to meet their needs. The purpose of this article was to investigate the status of sustainable development indicators in the curriculum of the preschool period in Ahvaz city. In this regard, a statistical sample including 78 experts in the field of preschool curricula was used. In order to estimate the experimental model, factor analysis method and latent coefficients were used. The indices extracted for sustainable development variables in this study were obtained using a meta-analysis compared to the research literature. The results obtained from Maknoon variables for sustainable development indicators in the preschool curriculum showed that the intensity of the effects of these components were respectively for participation in environmental protection, saving energy consumption and recycling, interdependence, diversity Biological and non-violence has been the highest value.

Abstract A society relies on rational investors to invest because they are the custodians of society's wealth. However, rationality and predictability in decision making is an unattainable idea because decision makers may sometimes act irrationally. Behavioral economics and finance is a result of the achievements of cognitive psychology in the field of human knowledge and the achievements of conventional economics in the field of knowledge of economic phenomena. Despite the distortions and sensory or perceptual errors of man, he is not and will not be able to choose and make decisions completely rationally and with ideal conditions. As a result, it is better to revise the assumptions of the unlimited source of rationality, will and selfishness in economics. The purpose of this article was to examine the role of irregularities in the decision making of investors in the country's capital market. In this study, a foundational data approach and statistical information collected from financial and economic experts in 1402 were used. The results obtained from this study indicated that the role of economic and financial components, market mechanism and executive functions, functions of institutions and financial and accounting components and the index of managerial and legal strategies in irregularities in capital decision making. It was 0.72, 0.55, 0.69 and 0.65 respectively.

Abstract Considering that in the knowledge economy , production, distribution and application of knowledge and information is the main factor of development, produce of wealth and employment in all economic activities, therefore, it is important to examine the financial friction and financial development on the indicators of the knowledge economy of economic sectors, Therefore In this research the effect of shocks due to financial friction (increase in legal reserve rate) and financial development (reduce in bank loans interest rate) on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of each economic sector (agriculture, industry and services) was studied using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. For this purpose the required date was gathered from social accounting matrix of Islamic Parliament of Iran related to year 2011 and input-output table of Central Bank of Iran related to year 2016. Results indicated that shocks of financial friction have significant inverse effect and shocks of financial development have significant positive effect on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of agriculture, industry and services sectors. Because with increase in financial friction or development, the ability of banks for allocating bank loans to economic firms will reduce and consequently their knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) will reduce. In addition between studied economic sectors, the financial friction and development shocks have the most effect on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of industry, agriculture and services sectors, respectively.

Abstract The economy and the forecasting of its indicators is one of the main and influential elements in the life of every person and can be the basis for the superiority of individuals and governments over others, as a result, the forecasting of indicators is always one of the main challenges and concerns of economists and investors. On the other hand, with the emergence of cryptocurrencies and the increase in their price value, a lot of investment has been made in this field, so finding methods to predict the price of cryptocurrencies in the future is very important. In this article, a method for predicting the price of Bitcoin using artificial intelligence algorithms is presented. For this purpose, the characteristics affecting the future price of bitcoin were identified and categorized and standardized in two separate data sets including price data and structural data of the bitcoin network, then a new structure consisting of three feedforward and feedback neural networks was designed, the first and second network including the GRU layer. which predict prices in parallel and separately from each other. Next, the output of each of these networks is combined with each other by a neural network, and finally, values are obtained as price predictions for the coming days. The results of the research and error calculation show that using the last 15 or 20 days is the best interval for predicting the future price of Bitcoin, which has an accuracy of 97.36% and 96.76%, which shows the high accuracy and efficiency of this method. Also, due to the correct selection of the input features, the computational volume of this research has been significantly reduced.

Abstract  

INTRODUCTION

Various variables in the economy are affected by monetary policy, which is a process of particular importance for policy-making. in a real economy, the transfer mechanism describes how monetary policy instruments affect the ultimate goal variables. there are two monetary and credit views on how money transfers.
 

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

Monetary policy is a tool for influencing economic variables that this influence on the economy is formed as a process that is of particular importance in policy-making. the process by which monetary policy instruments affect the ultimate goal variables in a real economy is called the transfer mechanism. there are two views of money and credit on the mechanism of money transfer.
the monetary perspective is based on the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset price channel and the expectations channel.
the credit view is based on the bank lending channel and the balance sheet channel.
in this research, the channels of money transfer mechanism have been studied based on different perspectives. the channels examined are interest rate channel, exchange rate channel, asset price channel, q-tobin channel, wealth effect channel, credit channel, bank lending channel, balance sheet channel and expectations channel.
 

METHODOLOGY

The study uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model based on the new keynesian approach to an open economy. it includes four sections of economic factors including household, domestic and importing firms, foreign trade, and monetary policy. the linearized structural equations include several types of nominal adhesions, and occurs around the steady-state point. on this basis, the money transfer mechanism is determined based on the effect of monetary policy on output. also, taylor's rule (taylor, 1993) used to adjust monetary policy by using the non-covert equity ratio of the interest rate as the reference interest rate (shadow interest rate). in this study, the parameters of the linearized model using the bayesian method, and for the period of 2018 through 2020, the data were used to estimate the seasonal time series. also used MCMC and Metropolis-Hasting’s simulations to verify the results.
 

RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS

According to the results of the analysis of the variance, following channels affecting Iran's money transfer mechanism were identified:

Interest rate channel: as a result of interest rate shock, the rates of change in real interest rate, investment and real production are equal to 44.91%, 0.47% and 6.43%. this channel shows the real impact of monetary policy based on interest rates.
q-Tobin channel: the amount of change in q-tobin channel, investment and real output in response to the monetary policy shock is 36.74%, 2.76% and (0.02%), therefore q-tobin channel is an effective channel.
expectation channel: the expected inflation rate is 49% and the production impact is 32.8%, so the expectation channel is effective.
Wealth channel: as a result of the change in interest rates, q-tobin changed by 36.74%, which affected household consumption by 0.02%. as the result, this channel is effective. exchange rate channels, bank facilities and balance sheets have no effect on this model.

Effective channels in order of relative importance in this rule are: expectation channel, interest rate channel, q-tobin channel and wealth channel.
In order to analyze the long-term production behavior and the result of an analysis of the variance table, the share of each structural shock on production and its components is as follows:

Production is mainly affected by the shock of preferences, which 35.09% of gdp forecast error explains the impact of this shock on production. after that, domestic inflation shock, investment shock, monetary policy shock, government spending shock and wage shock affect production variance.
As a result of the internal inflation shock, 65.7% of the inflation fluctuations are explained by this shock. inflation variance is then affected by shadow interest rate shocks, money demand shocks, investment shocks and q-tobin shocks.
Most fluctuations in consumption are caused by preference shock and investment shock, which 72.87% of the consumption variance is explained by these 2 shocks. consumption variance is then affected by internal inflation shock, shadow interest rate shock, wage shock and q-tobin shock.

Investment variance is then affected by domestic inflation shock, q-Tobin shock, shadow interest rate shock and wage shock.

Most net export fluctuations are caused by monetary policy shocks and domestic inflation shocks, which 99.16% of the net export fluctuations variance is explained by these two shocks.

next export fluctuations are then affected by preference shocks, wage shocks, investment shocks and q-Tobin shocks.
 

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS

The effective channels of Iran's money transfer mechanism are: expectations channels, interest rates, q-tobin and wealth channel, and according to the simulations, increasing interest rated reduce production, consumption, investment and capital utilization rates.

Abstract With the tightening of sanctions and the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA in 2017, the maximum pressure on Iran caused great damage to Iran's economy. It is predicted that in the new period after the JCPOA, these sanctions will have many destructive effects on the performance indicators of selected industries of the Tehran Stock Exchange. Based on this, the purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of some macroeconomic variables. During the sanctions periods (before and after the JCPOA), it is based on the performance indicators of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange (selected industries: automobile, chemical, medicine and steel).
In terms of the purpose of this research, it is considered as applied research, and the current research is of the post-event type, that is, it is based on the analysis of past information (financial statements of companies). Also, the method of this research is correlational in nature and content. The time period of the research includes 11 consecutive years from 1389 to 1399.
The results of the research showed that sanctions had a moderating role on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and added value of companies. Sanctions in all selected industries, except the automobile industry, have had a moderating role on the relationship between the volume of foreign investment and the investment activities of companies. Sanctions in all selected industries, except the automobile industry, have had a moderating role on the relationship between the price index of products and the profitability of companies. Sanctions in the whole sample and in the chemical industry, on the relationship between the import of intermediate goods and capital and operational activities of companies have a moderating role.
Keywords: sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, volume of foreign investment, performance indicators of companies.

Abstract  
1- INTRODUCTION
Welfare is one of the main men needs which economist and policy makers can tack appropriate planning and policies with true cognition from the effect of government policies on welfare. Generally, it is argued that the goal of monetary policies is making economic stability and remaining the stationary of prices. When money volume increases the level of expectation prices will increase and due to rising expectation inflation and reducing both producers and consumers welfare. Therefore, according to the negative effects of uncertainty conditions in economy on welfare of consumers and producers, assessing the effects of monetary policies on exchange rate in uncertainty conditions and its effect on welfare has undeniable importance for prevent from hazardous economic effects which carried out in this research. For this purpose, the effects of shocks due to monetary policies scenarios through increase in liquidity volume and decrease in required reserve rate (2%, 5% and 10%) on foreign exchange rate (Rial/US$) and total welfare was studied.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
In the theoretical literature, two channels have been proposed for the effect of the exchange rate on the economy of a country; one is from a micro perspective (influence on economic agents, i.e. consumers, firms, investors, and the government) and the other is at the macro level. Many researchers have argued that households and firms are negatively affected by exchange rate fluctuations through direct and indirect channels. The direct influence of the exchange rate fluctuation is through the change in the price of imported consumer goods and as a result the change in the consumer price index, and its indirect effect is through the national monetary value and as a result the change in the price of intermediate goods and imported inputs, which leads to increase the cost of production. It is obvious that the uncertainty caused by exchange rate fluctuations has a negative effect on investment decisions, and the unreliability of economic conditions increases the severity of this effect. The direct influence channel is based on the assumption that people don’t desire with the fluctuation of the exchange rate, because it causes fluctuations in their consumption, employment and welfare. Its indirect effect is that firms try to cover future risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations by setting higher prices as a risk premium. Therefore, the price of goods and services increases. It is likely that the demand will be lower and the producers will hire fewer workers and as a result the economic welfare will decrease. This point of view is very common in the literature, and most economists do not consider this conclusion unreasonable that exchange rate fluctuations are costly for economic welfare.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
In order to meet the research goals the required data was gathered from Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Parliament Research Center of Iran in the year 2011 and input-output table of central bank of Iran (CBI) in the year 2016. On the other hand, many researches about the effects of monetary policies on economic variables have been carried out by using static computable general equilibrium and in most advanced case with dynamic computable general equilibrium models. But dynamic computable general equilibrium models divided in two categories: interim and recursive. The interim models are based on optimum growth theorem which assumed that economic agents have the ability of complete prediction while this doesn't correct many economic circumstances, especially in developing countries. Hence many economic experts believe that recursive models are more trustable. Therefore, in this research, in order to achieve the results from gathered data the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model and impulse response functions (IRF) through making shocks on monetary police indexes include of: increase in liquidity volume (2%, 5% and 10%) and decrease in required reserve rate (2%, 5% and 10%) were applied. In addition, for data analyzing the Matlab software were applied.
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Results indicated that shocks of increase in liquidity volume equal to 2%, 5% and 10%, maximally will increase the exchange rate equal to 0.97%, 1.98% and 3.08%, respectively. Also, shocks of decrease in legal reserve rate equal to 2%, 5% and 10%, maximally will increase the exchange rate equal to 0.84%, 0.90% and 1.14%, respectively. Because shocks of increase in liquidity volume and decrease in required reserve rate due to increase in money volume, causes to reduce in value of national money in comparison with foreign exchanges and therefore the Rial value of US$ will increase in domestic. In addition, results showed that shocks of increase in liquidity volume equal to 2%, 5% and 10%, maximally will decrease the total welfare equal to 1.19%, 2.47% and 3.53%, respectively. Also, shocks of decrease in required reserve rate equal to 2%, 5% and 10%, maximally will decrease the total welfare equal to 0.73%, 1.64% and 2.81%, respectively. Because shocks of increase in liquidity volume and decrease in required reserve rate due to increase in money volume, causes to reduce in value and power purchase of national money and consequently increase in inflation rate and decrease in total welfare.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
It is concluded that the studies indexes of monetary policies (increase in liquidity volume and decrease in required reserve rate) will increase the foreign exchange rate (Rial/US$) and decrease the total welfare. Indeed, between studied shocks, shock of increase in liquidity volume has more effect on exchange rate and total welfare in comparison with shock of decrease in required reserve rate. Therefore in condition of uncertainty in exchange rate which economic agents transfer their assets to parallel markets especially foreign exchange market and cause to further increase in foreign exchange rate and consequently increase in inflation rate and decrease in total welfare, it is recommended that central bank take a restrictive monetary policy such as increase in bank interest rate because this policy while increase in investment cost, can almost prevent from speculative activities and transferring assets to exchange rate market and exacerbate the exchange rate fluctuations and finally decrease in total welfare.

Abstract INTRODUCTION In most of the developed countries, the stock market is considered as the central core of the capital market and it directs large amounts of stray capital to productive and active sectors every year (Hadipoor et al. 2021).Also, in behavioral finance studies conducted in the last decade, empirical evidence has been provided that all investors do not react rationally to information and investors' emotions have been effective on asset pricing (Kumari, 2019).   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK In some studies, the role of emotional behaviors in stock price fluctuations of Tehran Stock Exchange Organization has been confirmed (Phuong, 2021). With the increase in oil prices, the income of petrochemical, refining  and other oil-related industries will increase. Therefore, the stock price of these companies will also increase. Several studies have examined the relationship between oil prices and the stock market (Zeinoldini et al. 2020, Alamgir, & Bin Amin, 2021). In one approach, with an increase in the exchange rate, the income of companies exporting products to abroad increases, and it causes an increase in the stock price of these companies and ultimately increases the stock price index. Some studies have investigated the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock price index (Nguyen et al. 2020, Çakır, 2021, Huang et al., 2021  & Qalandari & Fallah, 2021(. Housing market is considered as a rival market to the stock market (Zare and Rezaei, 2006). It is expected that with the increase in housing prices, a part of people's assets will enter the housing market and ultimately have a negative effect on the stock market price index.   3- METHODOLOGY Based on theoretical foundations and following Singhal et al. (2019) the model is expressed as relation (1):   (1)    where: GTEPi,t the growth of Tehran Stock Exchange's total stock index in quarter i of year t, GOILi,t the growth of OPEC oil prices in quarter i of year t, GEXCi,t the growth of the free market exchange rate (US dollar) in quarter i in year t, ARMi,t investor sentiment index (Arms index) in quarter i in year t, GGDPi,t real GDP growth of Iran based on base year 2013 in quarter i in year t and GHPIi,t price growth Housing is in season i in year t.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION A large share of the total value of the capital market is related to petrochemical and refining companies, and the increase in oil prices causes an increase in the stock price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange.  Also, the increase in the exchange rate causes a decrease in the purchasing power of people, therefore, to compensate for the decrease in purchasing power, people invest their stagnant money in the stock market to compensate for the decrease in their purchasing power which leads to an increase in the  the stock price index. There is a negative relationship between the stock price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and the sentiment index of active investors in this market. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The growth of OPEC oil prices, exchange rate growth and GDP growth have a positive effect and the ARMS investors' feelings index and housing price growth have a negative effect on the growth of Tehran Stock Exchange stock index.

Abstract Changes in housing prices can cause booms and Recession in the housing sector, the consequences of which affect the economy. Considering the importance of this issue, identifying the factors affecting housing prices can help policy makers and planners in formulating relevant policies. Focusing on this goal, this research has examined a significant number of variables that are likely to affect the fluctuations of housing prices in the country..
In this research, 24 variables affecting housing prices were included in the model, and finally, using the dynamic averaging model approach, the most important variables affecting housing prices were determined.
Based on the results of dynamic averaging, the most important variables affecting housing prices in Iran's economy are inflation variables, exchange rate, liquidity, economic growth, banks' payment facilities for housing, outstanding claims and increase in bank debt, the amount of fixed assets of banks, land price index in Tehran, sanctions index, population, housing tax, urbanization coefficient and construction materials price index. Based on the results of the model, the variables of inflation, exchange rate, liquidity, banks' payment facilities for housing, the amount of fixed assets of banks, land price index in Tehran, sanctions index, population, urbanization coefficient and the price index of construction materials have a positive effect and economic growth variables, claims Delayed and increased bank debt and housing tax have a negative effect on housing prices.
Based on the results of inflation, they have the highest percentage of variance decomposition and changes on the housing price variable; Also, based on the results of the TVP-VAR model, it was observed that the shock effect of selected effective variables on housing prices has increased in the last decade.

Abstract Extended abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Accurately predicting earning manipulation in order to detect and identify manipulation of financial statements has always been one of the most fundamental challenges ahead of financial reports users. Because of increasing financial reporting fraud, this fact resulted in investor distrust of capital markets in recent years. The purpose of this study is to answer the questions whether it is possible to detect earning manipulation in financial statements based on the Beneish model? is it possible to detect earning manipulation in financial statements based on the proposed model? and does the proposed model predict better than the Beneish model in detecting earning manipulation? The findings of this research can be concidered by investors, creditors, auditors, regulators and other users to help them in making decisions and offering appropriate solutions. In order to detect earning manipulation and enhance the predictive accuracy of the earning manipulation model, it has been designed and presented a developed model based on Beneish model (1999). this study uses corporate governance variables i.e., audit committee structure, legal inspector and independent auditor, board of director's structure and corporate ownership structure requirements.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
 Benish (1999) investigated 74 earning-manipulator companies applying probit analysis during 1982-1992. He assigned the number 1 to the manipulative companies and the number zero to the non-manipulative companies and calculated the coefficients of the independent variables. The cut-off point of this model was -1.78. Therefore, if the M-score  is greater than -1.78, it is likely that the company is earning manipulator. The overall accuracy of the model was confirmed at 76%.
By using eight accounting variables in its model, Beneish showed that the probability of earning manipulation increases with unusual increase in receivables, decrease in gross profit margin, decrease in asset quality, sales growth and increase in accruals. But what is hidden from view in this model, is the attention to the control of mechanism to reduce transaction and agency costs. Studies conducted to develop the Beneish model have also been based solely on accounting data and have ignored the implications of control mechanisms in model development. Therefore, in order to improve the predictive power of the beneish model, corporate governance system can be considered as a deterrent factor from earning manipulation.
3- METHODOLOGY
 The data of this study are drawn from the annual financial statements and reports of a sample of 81 non-financial listed companies on TSE over the period  2012-2018  i.e., 567 firm-year observations   and  analyzed by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network and cosmology based algorithms i.e.,  black-hole based optimization (BHBO), big bang-big crunch (BBBC) and galactic swarm optimization (GSO). It has been applied feed forward net to design the initial and final neural network model by structure of 8-17-1-1 for Beneish model (1999) and of 25-17-1-1 for the proposed model.This study also compares models based on hybrid neural networks and cosmological algorithms and the best and weakest cosmological algorithms are determined in neural network training to detect earning manipulation.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The numerical value of the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic gives an idea about the detection power which it has been in the rejected range of 0.74 to 0.55 for the Beneish model (1999) and in the accepted range of 0.97 to 0.75 for the proposed model. The best cut-off points and the best accuracy of the Beneish model (1999) have been estimated up to 0.4014, 63.49%, respectively, by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and big bang-big crunch algorithm (MLP-BBBC). The best cut-off point and the best accuracy of the proposed model have been estimated up to 0.4023 and 87.30 percent, respectively, by the hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO). The estimated accuracy of the model by the hybrid methods of multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO), hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and big bang-big crunch algorithm (MLP-BBBC) and hybrid multi-layer perceptron neural network and black-hole based optimization algorithm (MLP-BHBO) has been increased from 59.08, 63.49 and 57.5 percentages to 87.3, 79.72 and 74.25 percentages, respectively.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
This evidence indicates that predictive power of the model has been enhanced in detecting earning-manipulator companies and training error of the network has been decreased up to 12.7 percentages by hybrid method of multi-layer perceptron neural network and galactic swarm optimization algorithm (MLP-GSO). Therefore, it can be concluded that the integration of corporate governance variables as non-accounting variables to the Beneish model (1999) has been more effective in detecting and identifying earning manipulation. This evidence is consistent with this fact that a significant reduction in mean square error (MSE) is up to 23.81% and as a result the predictive power of proposed model has been significantly improved. The area under the curve of the black-hole based optimization (BHBO) and big bang-big crunch (BBBC) algorithms is covered by the galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm in the proposed model. Also the area under the curve of the black-hole based optimization (BHBO) and galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithms is covered by the big bang-big crunch (BBBC) algorithm in Beneish model(1999). Therefore, the best algorithms for training the multi-layer perceptron neural network belong to the galactic swarm optimization (GSO) algorithm in the proposed model by the 12.7% error and to the Big Bang- Big Crunch (BB-BC) algorithm in Beneish model (1999) by the 36.51% error compared to the other cosmological algorithms in this study to detect and identify of manipulator companies.

Abstract The present article compares the effectiveness of financing from the banking system and the stock market on the performance of listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange. Test cases have been studied. This study examined the statistical data of 55 companies during 7 years (3 years before entry, 3 years after entry and year of entry) and concluded that between the effects of financing from the banking system and the stock market on the performance of firms In this study, the productivity variables of total factors of production, investment and employment as performance variables, and long-term facilities, capital increase from cash flow and entry into the stock market as an independent variable and firm size, interest rate, Firm production, wages, public and private ownership of the company are considered as control variables. According to the research results, financing from the banking system has a positive and significant effect on the investment variable as a performance variable, while entering the stock market and increasing cash flow does not have a significant effect on the investment variable. Also, the effect of entering the stock market and increasing cash flow, such as the effect of financing from the banking system on the productivity variables of all factors of production and employment is meaningless.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Achieving macroeconomic stability is one of the main issues of policymakers in developed and developing economies, especially in Iran. In order to create stability in the economy, one of the important and efficient tools are the monetary policies that are used in direct and indirect ways by the central bank. Open market operation as an indirect tool of monetary policy is done in most advanced countries that have structured secondary markets related to government bonds through the entry and exit of the central bank in this market. The preparations for the operation of the open market in Iran's economy have been prepared since 2017 and it has been implemented since the beginning of 2019. In the market operations of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it can buy and sell certain securities, and other banks in Iran can also buy and sell these securities in cooperation with the Central Bank. Considering that the main tool of open market operations is the interest rate, it can be stated that the main objectives of the banking open market operations are the management of the short-term interest rates of the interbank markets in order to balance inflation. Of course, it should be noted that the economic conditions in Iran are different from other countries, because Iran has faced all kinds of economic and non-economic sanctions by Western countries, and it is necessary to consider this influential variable as a quantitative index and measure its effect in the model. Therefore, it is necessary to see the effectiveness of the mentioned operations in the conditions of sanctions. On the other hand, in spite of the extensive exploration regarding the issue of the effectiveness of open market operations, no study with this title has been carried out in a quantitative manner. Therefore, in this paper, the effect of open market operations on variables such as inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate during the period of 1392 to 1400 with seasonal frequency is investigated with the Eviuse software and by using the ARDLmodel.   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK In the implementation of monetary policy, the central bank can directly use its regulatory power or indirectly influence the conditions of the money market as a high-powered money issuer (bill and currency in circulation and deposits with the central bank). Accordingly, two types of monetary policy tools can be distinguished, which are called direct (not relying on market conditions) and indirect (based on market conditions) monetary policy tools.   3- METHODOLOGY In order to investigate the effect of open market operations on four key macroeconomic variables, it is necessary to specify four separate equations and estimate each one separately by using the ARDL method. Consideration that the data is seasonal, it is necessary to check the reliability of the variables and the sum of the equations in order to examine the long-term relationship and the convergence of the variables towards the equilibrium value.     4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The important results obtained in this research is that the sign of the open market operation coefficient is contrary to economic theories, which indicates the inefficiency of the open market operation under sanctions in Iran, and these results are completely consistent with the official evidence and statistics of the relevant centers.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS In the current situation where Iran's economy is suffering from stagnation and government budget deficit, it seems that open market operation has found the function of financing for the government and has no effect on controlling the interest rate and consequently the inflation rate. In fact, the government issued bonds without consideration and from the very beginning it has disrupted and rendered useless the operation of the open market operation tool as a tool of the new monetary policy procedure in line with inflation targeting. On the other hand, the creation of open market operations and the issuance of bonds will cause global fluctuations or external pressures to be transferred into the country in the form of clear economic effects and create another vulnerable point against sanctions in Iran's economy. In such a way that by imposing severe sanctions and even by playing with the psychological atmosphere, the price of government bonds in the market will change and fall, which can cause the discrediting of government bonds and a blow to the financing of government activities. Therefore, it is suggested to consider a sustainable and long-term solution to the government's revenue generation, which includes tax revenues.

Abstract Importance- Performance Analysis (IPA) of Policies to Reform the Banking System of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the Islamic Banking Approach
In the current research, the policies of reforming the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been analyzed. In the qualitative section, articles published from 2000 to 2020 in reliable domestic and foreign databases in the field of Islamic banking were examined. To analyze the articles, the meta analysis approach and the seven-step method of Sandlowski and Barroso (2007) were used. The research sample included 23 experts in the field of Islamic banking who were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. In data collection, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with the Islamic banking approach through library studies and literature review. Through library studies and systematic literature review, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with Islamic banking approach.​ In the quantitative stage, the researchers analyzed the identified reform policies through the importance-performance analysis method.​ The findings of the research show that reform policies such as requiring the for​mation of specialized sub-committees of the Jurisprudence Council in banks, establishing a connection between money supply and the real sector of the economy, changing the formal operations of Islamic contracts to real Islamic operations, especially profit and loss sharing and formulating and approving the prerequisites for obtaining a managerial position based on having the ability, experience in Islamic banking, along with the training of banking jurisprudents, is one of the policies that should be taken into consideration by decision makers.

Abstract     1- INTRODUCTION Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 and the adoption of floating exchange rate system, exchange rate volatility (ERV) has become a central issue and concern for various groups of agents including policy makers, central banks, academics and individual investors among others. Central bank transparency (CBT) is one of the possible factors which can reduce exchange rate or generally exchange rate volatility that increase it's in has been one of the main developments in central banking in the past few decades. Thus, this leads to the question of the effect of central bank transparency on the volatility of exchange rates. The most important inferred from the previous literature on the issue of central bank transparency is that the increase of information provision by the central banks in the form of communication of monetary policy will lead to an increase in the ability of people to understanding the objectives of the central bank and improve their forecasts from the monetary policy of the central bank, which will prevent changes in the central bank's policy stance from destabilizing financial markets , which this could be required existing an independent central bank. Due to the fact that in oil exporting countries, especially OPEC member countries, the move towards more transparent monetary policy has been slow, thus the increase in central bank transparency and existing an independence of the central bank can have been decreasing effect on exchange rate volatility. Also, this study used the Extended Central Bank Independence (ECBI) index is the newly created index of central bank independence (CBI). Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examining the impact of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility in Selected OPEC Member Countries to use two approaches Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) that in perversion research have been ignored.   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK According to the existing literature, CBT is said to be based on performing several tasks: the clear formulation of monetary policy objectives, the regular publication of economic outlooks and forecasts, the disclosure of methods, the regular publication of press releases and minutes of monetary policy meetings, and the regular organization of press conferences and other meetings with media and the public. As central banks have been moving towards more transparent policies over the last two decades, some of them started publishing their own forecasts on the future state of the economy. Projections of future growth rate of GDP and inflation rate are but two examples of such forecasts. These changes in the practice of central banking resulted in considerable growth in the literature. The aspect of transparency people is interested in has to do with release of central bank projections of the future state of the economy. Of course, if, that there is no strategic attempt to manipulate the public's beliefs and in this context with the people have been truthful. One of the main goals of most central banks is to stabilise the economy and reduce economic fluctuations. This includes a reduction in inflation volatility, output variation, and exchange rate volatility. Blinder (1998) argues that a nation's central bank should explain its actions to the people, so as to remove the mystery behind the decision - making process. If the bank cannot provide a clear explanation of a decision, then the decision may not be a good one. Thus, that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of financial markets. First, greater information about how a central bank makes policy decisions would curtail excessive speculation. Second, clearer decision rules on the part of the central bank would help to reduce the volatility of markets, and thus enhance the predictability of future movements of financial assets. Crowe & Meade (2008) argues, as central banks have become more independent, so the demand for transparency has increased, both for reasons of accountability and legitimacy, and to guide the expectations of financial market participants (whose appetite for information has expanded as financial markets have become broader and deeper).   3- METHODOLOGY     The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CBT on ERV in selected OPEC member countries (for the six OPEC countries that consisting of United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) with the help of annual panel data for 1998-2019. In this study, to analyze the tests related to panel data and model estimation employed two approaches FMOLS and DOLS have been used from Eviews and Stata softwares.                                                                                                             4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION In this step, we check whether the variables have a unit root using the Maddala & Wu (1999) Fisher test that adopts an augmented Dickey–Fuller test for panel data. According to the results of the tests stationarity and cointegration, FMOLS and DOLS methodologies were used to estimate the long relationships. The findings of this study in the both approaches showed that CBT and CBI are the effective variables on ERV and have a negative and significant in relation to ERV. The findings of this study confirm that oil rent and GDP growth have a negative and significant in relation to ERV, also.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS   As a novelty for the first time, this study found the overall relationship between CBT and ERV emissions which came to be negative in selected OPEC member countries using annual panel data over the period 1998-2019. This showed that an increase in CBT would lead to a reduction in ERV emissions. According to the results of this study the central bank transparency is considered a positive measure and often due to its benefits and high flexibility to stabilize the economy can reduce exchange rate volatility. However, empirical evidence of such benefits has not yet been considered in oil exporting countries. The findings of this study show the importance of central bank transparency in selected OPEC member countries which in an independent environment of the central bank can play a role in reducing exchange rate volatility. The more stable, less volatile, and more secure the financial markets, including the exchange rate market can increase gdp growth.

Abstract The oil sector, as the most important economic sector of the country, has played a significant role in the economic growth and development of the country and, therefore, has always been given special attention by managers and decision makers. Investing in this sector makes its capacity and potentials real and causes its effects on other economic sectors of the country. In a general division, the factors affecting investment can be divided into real and monetary categories. In this study, the effect of exchange rate and oil price shocks as monetary shocks and GDP shocks and value added of the oil sector as real shocks on investment in the oil sector has been investigated. To do this, the Bayesian self-regression approach (BVAR) and the data of 1357-99 years have been used. The results of the instantaneous reaction function show that the shocks of GDP, value added and oil prices have a positive effect on investment in the oil sector, among which, the shock of GDP has the greatest effect. Also, the exchange rate shock initially has a contractionary effect on investment in this sector, and after two periods, the amount of investment increases.

Abstract Nowadays, with the extensive growth of information technology and e-commerce, the use of electronic banking tools in various businesses has increased significantly. At the same time, considering the current problems of the country, such as inflation, unemployment, government budget deficit, etc., banks feel the need for banking business models in order to finance themselves. In this regard, the aim of the upcoming article is to develop a business model for the TOSE'E TA'AVON Bank in line with its digital banking. For that we interviewed fifteen managers and experts familiar with the Bank and digital banking. We then analyzed the thematic interviews, to extract the dimensions of the banking business model of the TOSE'E TA'AVON Bank. For the dimensions of the business model, 216 final codes were obtained through open coding, and 34 concepts were obtained by examining the identified codes and intra-case and inter-case analysis. These concepts expressed the 6 main dimensions of the Bank's business model in line with digital transformation. Finally, some suggestions were presented to operationalize the proposed model in TOSE'E TA'AVON Bank.

Abstract  
1- INTRODUCTION
Monetary policy, as one of the most important economic tools that affects various economic variables through different channels and with different speed and intensity, has always been the attention of the responsible authorities of countries, especially developing countries like Iran. On the other hand, banks, as financial and credit institutions that have a special place in the country's economy, play a decisive role in the circulation of money and society's wealth. Therefore, examining the impact of monetary policy shocks on the health of Iran's banking system, which is done through the exchange rate channel, is particularly important and is the main goal of this research. Therefore, by using 96 variables of seasonal time series data affecting the bank's profitability index, which is one of the most important indicators of measuring and judging the health of the banking system during the period of 1401:4-1378:1 and using the experimental model of the factor- Added (FAVAR), we investigate the effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system in Iran. The results show the direct effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the growth rate of bank network deposits and consequently the power to grant facilities, the amount of bank operating income and the growth rate of bank claims, which from this point of view is one of the most important indicators of the health of the system. A bank that has a profitability index has a negative and significant effect. On the other hand, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the amount of claims in the bank.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Anzwaini et al. (2012) conducted a study aimed at the impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper examines the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices using a standard VAR system, which is commonly used in analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks.
Jordo et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of whether SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks? they did. We show that the used identification schemes have not been able to recover real unconventional monetary policy shocks in the Eurozone. In their identification schemes, information on the size of the central bank's balance sheet is key to distinguishing monetary policy shocks from other shocks that reduce financial market stress.
Niazi Mohseni et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of investigating the effect of monetary policy shocks and oil revenues on inflation and economic growth in Iran. In this study, the data of the explained variables were used for the period of 1357 to 1397. Data analysis was done using STATA software. The results of this study showed that the increase in the bank interest rate has reduced the economic growth rate for at least two years after the application of the shock, and after that the effect of the shock tends to zero.
Asefi et al. (2021) conducted a study on the effect of monetary policy through the asset price channel on financial development. In this study, using seasonal time series data of 110 economic variables in the period of 1370-1390 and self-explanatory model A generalized factor (FAVAR), the impact of monetary policies has been evaluated through the channel of housing and stock prices. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that the housing price channel has increased production in the medium and long term, but it has also had significant inflationary effects in the short and medium term.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
FAVAR model introduced by Bernanke et al. (2005) is a combination of VAR model and factor analysis model. Composite dynamics (Yt, Ft) should be assumed as equation 1.
According to the statistical limitations in Iran, the time period investigated in this data research will be the years 2012-2021 and the research variables include three categories:
Table 1: Introduction of Xt vector variables, Yt vector exogenous variables and F vector hidden factors




Brief description of the variable


 


Brief description of the variable


 




Rial long term deposit


LDR


Long-term currency deposit


LDF




Rial short term deposit


SDR


Short term currency deposit


SDF




riyal current deposits


DDR


Currency current deposits


DDF




Lending


loan


Claims of non-governmental entities


DI




Government claims to the bank


Dig


exchange rate


EXCH




Claims of other banks and financial institutions to the bank


Dib


Income from granting facilities


Inl




Income from currency exchange


Bc


Other variables as hidden factors


بردار




 
The equation can be written as follows using model variables:
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results obtained from the findings show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and as a result the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims which as a result It has an impact on one of the most important indicators of the health of the banking system, which is the profitability index, and this impact is negative and significant. Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Considering the importance of the banking sector, in this study, using the FAVAR model, the impact of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system of Iran during the years 2012-2021 was investigated.
At the beginning, the unit root test was used to measure the significance of the variables using Stata software, and all the variables were at the significance level.
In the following, with the help of Schwarz-Baysin, Akaik and Hanan-Quinn criteria, as well as the maximum likelihood statistic, the optimal interval is determined, and since these criteria do not yield the same results, the AIC criterion is used to determine the optimal interval length. and the obtained optimal interval length is specified as one. According to the obtained results, using the FAVAR model is very suitable for measuring the relationships between variables. The results of the model estimation results show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and consequently the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims, which is one of the most important the health indicators of the banking system, which is the profitability index, are effective. For this reason, fluctuations caused by monetary policy shocks in the exchange rate, as one of the most important factors affecting the health of the banking system, will have a negative and significant impact.
Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank

Abstract The amount of power of the CEO for macro decisions of an organization can have a direct impact on its performance. The purpose of this research is to investigate the moderating effect of the CEO's power on the relationship between the fragility of the banking system and interest rate divergence. To collect data, the reports of the board of directors of banks and credit institutions on the website of Tehran Stock Exchange Company and their financial statements were used with the help of Steta software. The statistical population of this research includes 30 banks and credit institutions admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange on an annual basis in the period of 2017-2022. Based on the results of the first model, the fragility intensity coefficient of the banking system has a significant positive effect on the interest rate divergence. In the second model, the coefficient of fragility of the banking system on interest rate divergence decreased when the moderating variable of CEO power was added. In the third model, when the moderating variable of the CEO's power and the interaction effect of the CEO's power on the fragility of the banking system were added, the intensity of the fragility of the banking system on the interest rate divergence decreased. The research results indicate that the CEO's power reduces the effect of bank fragility on interest rate divergence.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Company executives are trying to take steps to reduce their income tax, and one of the measures that may be taken to reduce taxes payable and increase post-tax revenue is to use a solution called tax avoidance. For this reason, tax avoidance creates a cloud of information environment and creates information asymmetries related to the company's reputation among investors. In other words, tax avoidance causes asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affects capital costs. So reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting. Tax avoidance disrupts the information environment and creates information asymmetries related to the company's reputation among investors. Therefore, it is expected that the relationship between firm reputation and implicit cost of capital is different in companies that use tax avoidance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the moderating role of tax avoidance on the relationship between firm reputation and implicit cost of capital.     2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK From the following two perspectives, tax avoidance as a moderating role is expected to affect the relationship between firm credit and the implicit cost of capital. First, a company's reputation is affected by tax planning, and tax avoidance is likely to negatively affect a company's reputation. When examination how tax avoidance affects the relationship between a firm's reputation and the cost of capital, tax avoidance interferes with the information environment and asymmetry of investors. Second, reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting. In the case of tax avoidance, financial reporting is possible, even if the quality of accounting information is unclear. Therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. 3- METHODOLOGY The statistical sample of the research includes 120 companies listed on the Tehran stock exchange, which has been studied during the years 1392 to 1398. the dependent variable of research is the implicit cost of capital and the independent variable is company reputation and the moderator variable isf tax avoidance. in this research, in order to collect data and information, the library method has been used. the information required by the companies has also been collected through the new rahavard software, the official website of the stock exchange organization and the reports of the board of directors. finally, the data were prepared by using excel software and then final analysis was performed by using ives software. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION Findings show that there is a negative and significant relationship between company reputation with implicit cost of capital and tax avoidance with implicit cost of capital. also, tax avoidance as a moderator affects the relationship between corporate reputation and the implicit cost of corporate capital. also, research findings show that more famous companies have lower capital costs, because high reputation indicates better company quality, proper transfer of competencies and doing business in accordance with the interests of shareholders. the company's reputation is affected by tax planning. in other words, when a company becomes involved in tax avoidance, it has a negative impact on the company's reputation. therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS It can be said that the implicit cost of capital plays a key role in managers' decisions. in fact, without knowing the cost of capital, the company can not decide what tools to use to raise the funds needed for its investments, and because of resource constraints, economic units should choose a combination of financial resources. to this end, managers, as representatives of shareholders and stakeholders, should try to regulate the capital structure of the company in such a way that the implicit cost of the company's capital is minimal and as a result, the company's reputation and shareholder wealth are lost. reputable companies are more inclined to reduce the implicit cost of capital, because reputation plays an important role in determining behavior, and by increasing the company's reputation, the firm's stability increases and sustainable management is possible. the effective tax rate has a positive and significant relationship with the cost of the company's capital. the reason for this can be said that managers pay more attention to tax reduction of financial statements, which in most listed companies, tax avoidance is done through tax rates. the company's reputation is affected by tax planning. in other words, when a company becomes involved in tax avoidance, it has a negative impact on the company's reputation. therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. hence, reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting.