Original Article
Meysam Pashaee; Mehdi Fathabadi
Abstract
The government budget is the largest and most important financial document of the country, it is expected every year. Unfortunately, the forecast error in budget expenditures and revenues has caused a budget deficit for the country in consecutive years. Therefore, in the present study, the factors affecting ...
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The government budget is the largest and most important financial document of the country, it is expected every year. Unfortunately, the forecast error in budget expenditures and revenues has caused a budget deficit for the country in consecutive years. Therefore, in the present study, the factors affecting the error in forecasting government budget expenditures in the period 1360-96 have been investigated. For this purpose, a regression model has been used to examine the three models of cost credits, capital asset acquisition, and financial asset acquisition. The results of SURE model show that exchange rate variables and realized values of costs are effective in predicting all three cost variables and GDP is effective in forecasting cost credits and capital credits with coefficients of 1.201 and 1.662, i.e. when GDP Government spending and development credits are also increasingeffective in forecasting cost credits and capital credits with coefficients of 1.201 and 1.662, i.e. when GDP Government spending and development credits are also increasing
Original Article
Financial monetary economy
saeed rahimi; parvaneh salatin; Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh; Masoud Sufi Majidpour
Abstract
In this study, the effect of banks' performance on economic convergence in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019 has been investigated using spatial econometrics. The results of the estimation of the models showed that the ratio of facilities to bank deposits as an indicator of banking performance ...
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In this study, the effect of banks' performance on economic convergence in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019 has been investigated using spatial econometrics. The results of the estimation of the models showed that the ratio of facilities to bank deposits as an indicator of banking performance and monetary indiscipline have a negative and significant effect on economic convergence in the provinces. The speed of convergence of conditional beta estimated by considering bank indices is higher than absolute convergence.Also, real capital stock, human capital and Internet penetration rate have a positive and significant effect and the rate of economic participation has a negative and significant effect on economic convergence. Investigating the effects of spillovers in 2018 showed that the spillover effect of banking performance on neighboring provinces was positive. Also, with the increase in the distance between the provinces, the spillover effect has decreased, in fact, the spillover effects on the neighboring provinces are more than the provinces that are located at a further distance.
Original Article
Bank
MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN Hadavi; Behrooz Ghasemi; SOHEIL SARMAD SAEIDI
Abstract
In the current situation of the country, realizing macroeconomic policies and achieving the goals of the resistive economy, financing the needs of the real and productive sectors of the economy, especially in the field of indirect provision of funds needed for those active in industrial markets, has ...
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In the current situation of the country, realizing macroeconomic policies and achieving the goals of the resistive economy, financing the needs of the real and productive sectors of the economy, especially in the field of indirect provision of funds needed for those active in industrial markets, has become more important than before. It is necessary to find solutions that can respond to the increasing demand for credit services in banks in the current inflationary conditions of the economy and help in the direct financing of the production chain. The use of alternative solutions for granting facilities, such as opening Rial letters of credit, while fulfilling the expectations of industrial customers, is not only compatible with the rules of Islamic banking, but is also attractive for banks because it helps to increase non- shared income. In this regard, conducting applied research with the aim of financial development of commercial banks and improving the marketing methods of financing tools, while helping to strengthen the country's financial system and facilitating the implementation of the general policies of the resistive economy, can also be a way forward in the prosperity of production. This research was carried out with a qualitative approach and with the grounded theory method. Then banking industry experts, experts, managers and other people familiar with the process of opening letters of credit in Sadaret Bank of Iran were selected by snowball method and after interviewing them, data analysis was done in three stages of open coding, axial coding and code Selection was done. Finally, the pattern of prioritization of industrial customers applying for internal letters of credit in Saderat Bank and other commercial banks was presented.
Original Article
Exchange
Amin Nazemi; Shahrokh Sheidaee
Abstract
The aim of the study is to investigate the mediating effect of overconfidence of managers in the relationship between documentary bias and the performance of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The current research is applied and from the methodological point of view, the correlation is causal ...
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The aim of the study is to investigate the mediating effect of overconfidence of managers in the relationship between documentary bias and the performance of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The current research is applied and from the methodological point of view, the correlation is causal type (post-event). The statistical population of the research is all the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and using the systematic elimination sampling method, 128 companies were selected as the research sample and were examined in a period of 8 years (within a period of 6 months) between 2015 and 2022 . The results of the research hypothesis test showed that positive stock returns have a direct relationship with internal self-attribution and negative stock returns with external attribution bias. Also, managers' overconfidence has a direct relationship with documentary bias, and finally it was found that overconfidence has a mediating role on the relationship between documentary bias and company performance.
Original Article
Capital markets
Abdolrasoul Rahmanian Koushkaki; Faeze Nazari
Abstract
Objective: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cash retention and investment efficiency in companies in financial crisis with regard to the role of corporate governance. Methods: The present study is applied and from a methodological point of view, causal (post-event) ...
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Objective: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cash retention and investment efficiency in companies in financial crisis with regard to the role of corporate governance. Methods: The present study is applied and from a methodological point of view, causal (post-event) correlation. The statistical population of the study is all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and using the systematic elimination sampling method, 132 companies were selected as the research sample and were examined over a period of 8 years between 2013 and 2020. Results: The results of testing the research hypotheses showed that there is a direct relationship between cash retention and investment efficiency. The interaction between corporate governance and cash retention has an adverse effect on investment performance, but ultimately the interaction between corporate governance and cash retention in companies in financial crisis has no effect on investment efficiency.Conclusion: Managers of companies with well-written and principled plans to manage liquidity resources and accumulation of cash in companies are able to make quick decisions when faced with high-yield investments. Also, having a well-written plan to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis and, if possible, use teams specializing in financial and economic fields to prevent or exit the financial crisis.
Original Article
Financial Economics
reza khalillo; mahdi abdolhamid; Ali Rezaeian
Abstract
Importance- Performance Analysis (IPA) of Policies to Reform the Banking System of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the Islamic Banking ApproachIn the current research, the policies of reforming the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been analyzed. In the qualitative ...
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Importance- Performance Analysis (IPA) of Policies to Reform the Banking System of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the Islamic Banking ApproachIn the current research, the policies of reforming the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been analyzed. In the qualitative section, articles published from 2000 to 2020 in reliable domestic and foreign databases in the field of Islamic banking were examined. To analyze the articles, the meta analysis approach and the seven-step method of Sandlowski and Barroso (2007) were used. The research sample included 23 experts in the field of Islamic banking who were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. In data collection, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with the Islamic banking approach through library studies and literature review. Through library studies and systematic literature review, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with Islamic banking approach. In the quantitative stage, the researchers analyzed the identified reform policies through the importance-performance analysis method. The findings of the research show that reform policies such as requiring the formation of specialized sub-committees of the Jurisprudence Council in banks, establishing a connection between money supply and the real sector of the economy, changing the formal operations of Islamic contracts to real Islamic operations, especially profit and loss sharing and formulating and approving the prerequisites for obtaining a managerial position based on having the ability, experience in Islamic banking, along with the training of banking jurisprudents, is one of the policies that should be taken into consideration by decision makers.
Original Article
Bank
simin rajizadeh
Abstract
The amount of power of the CEO for macro decisions of an organization can have a direct impact on its performance. The purpose of this research is to investigate the moderating effect of the CEO's power on the relationship between the fragility of the banking system and interest rate divergence. To collect ...
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The amount of power of the CEO for macro decisions of an organization can have a direct impact on its performance. The purpose of this research is to investigate the moderating effect of the CEO's power on the relationship between the fragility of the banking system and interest rate divergence. To collect data, the reports of the board of directors of banks and credit institutions on the website of Tehran Stock Exchange Company and their financial statements were used with the help of Steta software. The statistical population of this research includes 30 banks and credit institutions admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange on an annual basis in the period of 2017-2022. Based on the results of the first model, the fragility intensity coefficient of the banking system has a significant positive effect on the interest rate divergence. In the second model, the coefficient of fragility of the banking system on interest rate divergence decreased when the moderating variable of CEO power was added. In the third model, when the moderating variable of the CEO's power and the interaction effect of the CEO's power on the fragility of the banking system were added, the intensity of the fragility of the banking system on the interest rate divergence decreased. The research results indicate that the CEO's power reduces the effect of bank fragility on interest rate divergence.
Original Article
Financial Economics
mahdieh rezagholizadeh; majid aghaei; mehran abbaszadeh
Abstract
The global crude oil market has experienced a significant downturn since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in December 2019. Considering the importance of safe haven asset in recent years, this paper empirically investigates the time-varying correlations between Bitcoin and oilmarkets to examine whether ...
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The global crude oil market has experienced a significant downturn since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in December 2019. Considering the importance of safe haven asset in recent years, this paper empirically investigates the time-varying correlations between Bitcoin and oilmarkets to examine whether Bitcoin is a safe haven asset for the international crude oil markets during the 2014-2021 (daily) with emphasis on COVID-19 period).The results of the time-varying correlations obtained through the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-GARCH) model show that during the period of investigation (2014-2020), there is a positive conditional correlation between Bitcoin and crude oil, and this positive conditional correlation increase during the period of the Covid-19 virus. This result indicates that Bitcoin cannot be accepted as a safe haven for crude oil fluctuations and can only be considered as a diversifier in the asset portfolio.Keywords: Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Covid- 19, Safe Haven, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH)
Original Article
Financial Economics
Seyyed Abdollah razavi; Seyyed Mohammad Javadi
Abstract
Investment funds are one of the suitable tools for investing in the capital market, which manage risk by diversifying the composition of assets. The first refining fund was launched by the government in 2019. Based on economic theories, it was expected that the price of the investment units of this fund ...
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Investment funds are one of the suitable tools for investing in the capital market, which manage risk by diversifying the composition of assets. The first refining fund was launched by the government in 2019. Based on economic theories, it was expected that the price of the investment units of this fund would be higher than the value of the assets in that fund, but for various reasons, this did not happen and the price of the shares of this fund has always been sold below the nominal value. The purpose of this research is to identify the influencing factors on the activities and evaluate the performance of this fund. This research is of the type of library studies, through interviews with experts, 16 important factors affecting the performance of the 1st Refinery Fund were identified. Finally, the information was collected from the questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale to answer the questions of the questionnaire. In this regard, the required quantitative information was collected through the design and distribution of a questionnaire among 35 experts and analyzed using the statistical method of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results of the research show that the identified factors have affected the performance of the 1st Refinery Fund in different ways.
پژوهشی
Financial monetary economy
Mohammadtaher Ahmadishadmehri; fariba osmani; mahdi cheshomi
Abstract
Today, one of the problems of developing countries is increasing inflation. On the other hand, the political situation of many developing countries is also unstable. In addition, with the emergence and growth of new technologies and complex products, the effects and how the change of new structures affects ...
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Today, one of the problems of developing countries is increasing inflation. On the other hand, the political situation of many developing countries is also unstable. In addition, with the emergence and growth of new technologies and complex products, the effects and how the change of new structures affects the inflation rate are unclear.The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of economic complexity and political stability on the inflation in a panel of 15 developing countries in Asia during the years 1997-2018 using panel-quantile regression. In addition, the variables of GDP per capita, liquidity and exchange rate were considered as the explanatory variables.The results of quantile regression showed that the increase in liquidity and exchange rate increases inflation. As the economic complexity increases, the inflation rate decreases in all quantiles. In addition, increasing political stability helps to improve economic conditions and reduce inflation. Therefore, it can be concluded that inflation in developing countries is not only a monetary phenomenon and political and economic factors also affect it. In addition, the results of this study show that there is no significant relationship between GDP per capita and inflation, which indicates the verticality of the Phillips curve in the group of developing countries.
Original Article
Financial monetary economy
milad asadpour; ALIREZA Rezaee
Abstract
The economy and the forecasting of its indicators is one of the main and influential elements in the life of every person and can be the basis for the superiority of individuals and governments over others, as a result, the forecasting of indicators is always one of the main challenges and concerns of ...
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The economy and the forecasting of its indicators is one of the main and influential elements in the life of every person and can be the basis for the superiority of individuals and governments over others, as a result, the forecasting of indicators is always one of the main challenges and concerns of economists and investors. On the other hand, with the emergence of cryptocurrencies and the increase in their price value, a lot of investment has been made in this field, so finding methods to predict the price of cryptocurrencies in the future is very important. In this article, a method for predicting the price of Bitcoin using artificial intelligence algorithms is presented. For this purpose, the characteristics affecting the future price of bitcoin were identified and categorized and standardized in two separate data sets including price data and structural data of the bitcoin network, then a new structure consisting of three feedforward and feedback neural networks was designed, the first and second network including the GRU layer. which predict prices in parallel and separately from each other. Next, the output of each of these networks is combined with each other by a neural network, and finally, values are obtained as price predictions for the coming days. The results of the research and error calculation show that using the last 15 or 20 days is the best interval for predicting the future price of Bitcoin, which has an accuracy of 97.36% and 96.76%, which shows the high accuracy and efficiency of this method. Also, due to the correct selection of the input features, the computational volume of this research has been significantly reduced.
