پژوهشی
Mohammad Hassan Fotros; Hossein Tavakolyian; Reza Maaboudi
Abstract
Abstract
Iran Economy has experienced monetary shocks and rising inflation , in recent years. For this reason, it is expected that monetary shock has a positive effect on inflation. So, the paper studies impact of monetary shock on economic growth and inflation of Iran. The DSGE approach based on New ...
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Abstract
Iran Economy has experienced monetary shocks and rising inflation , in recent years. For this reason, it is expected that monetary shock has a positive effect on inflation. So, the paper studies impact of monetary shock on economic growth and inflation of Iran. The DSGE approach based on New Keynesian School is used to examine the impulse response functions and calculating the endogenous variables moments. To make compatible the model with Iranian economy we take in consideration the price stickiness, oil income, government and central bank balance, and the roll of business banks. Data of the period of 1973-2010 are sourced from CBI. Results indicate that technology shock increases the non-oil production and decreases the inflation. The effects of monetary and oil shocks on real production and on inflation are positive. On the other hand technology and oil shocks increase the economic growth, but monetary shock has no effect on growth.
پژوهشی
ali hassanzadeh; Mehran Kianvand
Abstract
Abstract
With regarding importance of oil price changes in oil income variation and their impressions in Iran oil dependent economy, in this paper, we investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on the main stock exchange index (stock price index) in Iran as an oil exporting country.
Our data cover ...
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Abstract
With regarding importance of oil price changes in oil income variation and their impressions in Iran oil dependent economy, in this paper, we investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on the main stock exchange index (stock price index) in Iran as an oil exporting country.
Our data cover monthly time series from 1991:4 to 2011:12. For investigating the relationship between oil price and stock price, in addition to oil price and stock price index variables, real exchange rate and liquidity has been added to our model. We applied three different yardsticks for illustrating oil shocks: linear shocks, scaled shocks and net shocks. Statistical analysis has been done in the time series framework consist of the GARCH and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models.
According ouz results, oil shocks have positive effects on stock indices so that with increasing in oil price, stock indices increase. Also our findings show that monetary shocks are more powerful than oil shocks in affecting stock prices. Asymmetric effect tests couldn’t prove any asymmetric impression on stock price index.
پژوهشی
Alireza Erfani; Marziyeh Hemmati
Abstract
Abstract
With due attention to essential role of banks in the economic cycle and easier access to them rather than other sources and according toinvestment attractions of Semnan province and lack of banking resources in this area, identification and rankingof factors affecting the resources and planning ...
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Abstract
With due attention to essential role of banks in the economic cycle and easier access to them rather than other sources and according toinvestment attractions of Semnan province and lack of banking resources in this area, identification and rankingof factors affecting the resources and planning to allocate them among different economic sectors is important.
Therefore, in the present study, along with identification of factors affecting banking resources of Semnan provincein period 2001-2011, Topsis rankingmethodhas been used.
The results ofthe ranking factors affecting banking resources of Semnan province by Topsis method (Topsis), show that, trust to banking network with 0.6884 has the first place among all the factors affecting the banking resources in different scenarios (with and without considering the effects of variables on the equation), also rank of these factors vary among different commercial and professional bank in this province.
پژوهشی
Mahmood Hooshmsnd; Seyyed Hamed Hosseini
Abstract
Abstract
Increasing needsofenergy, is one of thefundamentalissuesinhumanlifeand governments areplanningto preparation these needsthroughvarious sourcesof energy. Despitetheimportance offossilsourcesofenergysupplyfor different uses, different factors such as negative environmental consequences resulting ...
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Abstract
Increasing needsofenergy, is one of thefundamentalissuesinhumanlifeand governments areplanningto preparation these needsthroughvarious sourcesof energy. Despitetheimportance offossilsourcesofenergysupplyfor different uses, different factors such as negative environmental consequences resulting from use of fossil resources, the resource constraints, a possible increase in prices and other reasons, attention to other energies is necessary. Wind energy is one of the main types of renewable energies that human has always been considered.
In this paper, by using COMFAR cost -benefit wind plant with a capacity of megawatts consists of units of wind turbines analyzed is then the incentives to produce and invest in buildingsuch aplanthas been examined.
The results show that the guaranteed prices of electricity, changes in exchange rate and certificationsrate in the quota system have the impact on the net internal rate of return(IRR) and netpresent value(NPV).
پژوهشی
Hossein Sadeghi; Parisa Rahimi; Yunes Salmani
Abstract
Abstract
Financial distress caused by internal (Governance) and external (macroeconomic) factors can lead to a waste of resources. On the other hand, with the knowledge of the effectiveness of macroeconomic factors and Governance in financial distress, financial managers will be able to take appropriate ...
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Abstract
Financial distress caused by internal (Governance) and external (macroeconomic) factors can lead to a waste of resources. On the other hand, with the knowledge of the effectiveness of macroeconomic factors and Governance in financial distress, financial managers will be able to take appropriate actions to prevent financial distress. Investors also identify suitable opportunities to invest their own capital at minimum risk.
This study analyses the impact of macroeconomic and the Governance factors on Financial Distress in manufacturing companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 1382 to 1386, by using of panel Logit.
The results show that, firstly; of corporate governance factors; high levels of activity background, leverage ratio and ownership concentration increases the probability of financial distress and high levels of the firm size, agency costs, and Current Ratio reduce it.
Income and economic growth of firms reduce the probability of financial distress and inflation increases it. Secondly, the role of macroeconomic factors in health and financial distress of firms is far greater than the governance factors.
پژوهشی
Gholam Reza Eslami Bidgoli; Albert Boghosian; Mahdi Azadvari
Abstract
Abstract
Financial markets in recent decades are faced by salient evolution. The roles of exclusive special financial intermediates, especially banks, are decreased somedeal by the appearance of new financial intermediates and new financial instruments. Special place for intermediates like mutual funds ...
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Abstract
Financial markets in recent decades are faced by salient evolution. The roles of exclusive special financial intermediates, especially banks, are decreased somedeal by the appearance of new financial intermediates and new financial instruments. Special place for intermediates like mutual funds and investment companies with variable invest are opened. That means some of the banking customers accept higher risk instead of they only open an ordinary long term deposit account and they convict to small banking profit. They would prefer to invest in market via these intermediates for getting higher profit and higher risk. The role of investment companies and mutual funds at this way are important that they act as an asset portfolio manager for investors. The main objective of this paper is to survey the effective factors on mutual funds return in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) with regard to recent development of this kind financial institution.
In this research, weekly data of 19 Mutual Funds for the period of 2009 to 2011 is used. Seven factors are considered including: market return, value of units issued, value of units redeemed, funds value`s growth rate, capital activity ratio, ownership structure, risk (absolute deviation), number of industries in fund`s portfolio, cash amount which is hold by funds, and funds return of pervious period.
Analysis has been done by using OLS with panel data structure and fixed effect. Findings show that four factors including: market return, funds value`s growth rate, risk (absolute deviation), capital activity ratio, and can affect on funds return.
پژوهشی
Taghi Ebrahimi Salary; Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard; Hanif Kheirkhah
Abstract
Abstract
In this research the comparative prediction of Iran's banking system (included 14 banks) was carried out by using econometric and artificial neural network models. Accordingly, at first, by using the Kohonen neural network model, the considered banks were divided into two categories of high ...
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Abstract
In this research the comparative prediction of Iran's banking system (included 14 banks) was carried out by using econometric and artificial neural network models. Accordingly, at first, by using the Kohonen neural network model, the considered banks were divided into two categories of high performance and low performance groups and then using the output of Kohonen neural network model, financial proportions and Panel Data econometric model, the performance of Iran's banking system was estimated for the period 2004-2010 and finally by using models evaluation criteria, the performance of Panel Data and ANN models was compared.
The results of Kohonen neural network model indicated that from 14 considered bank, 4 banks belong to high performance group and 10 banks are belong to low performance group. Also the results of Panal Data estimations showed that “capital income/total income "portion has the lowest and “cash/total deposits", has the haighes effect on the Iran's banking system. Finally the results of models comparison stated that the ANN model outperforms the Panel Data model to predict the performance of Iran's banking system.
پژوهشی
Mohammad Javad Saei; Mohammad Ali Bagherpour Velashani; Seyyed Naser Mosavi Baigi
Abstract
Abstract
The purpose of this study is investigation of the effect of restated information on the prediction of earnings. The sample comprised 1603 firm-year observations for the period 2001 to 2008, which represents 70% of all companies listed in Tehran stock exchange (TSE).The T-test results indicate ...
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Abstract
The purpose of this study is investigation of the effect of restated information on the prediction of earnings. The sample comprised 1603 firm-year observations for the period 2001 to 2008, which represents 70% of all companies listed in Tehran stock exchange (TSE).The T-test results indicate that,there is a significant difference between primary and restated figures. In addition, restated information increases the ability (power) of Sloan earnings prediction modeland reduces the errors of firm’s ordering based on Shannon entropy & GRA model, which implies that restated figures are more useful than primary ones in this model of earning prediction.
The results show that the use of restated figures by users and researchers could conclude to more powerful predictions. Therefore strongly suggest that financial database software should expand to supply this kind of information.
پژوهشی
Mohammad Mahdi Barghi Oskooee
Abstract
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is investigation of the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran petrochemical over the period of 1970-2010. In order this goal the real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated by EGARCH (0, 1) model. Then by using nonlinear Markov ...
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Abstract
The main objective of this paper is investigation of the impact of real exchange rate volatility on exports of Iran petrochemical over the period of 1970-2010. In order this goal the real exchange rate volatility index has been estimated by EGARCH (0, 1) model. Then by using nonlinear Markov switching model the impact of this index, with other variables in the exporting Iran's petrochemical sector.
The main findings of the Markov switching model (MS-AR) show that the real exchange has investigated (in three regimes) and export prices (in regime 1), have negative and significant effects on exports of petrochemicals and world’s GDP in regimes 1 and 2, Iran’s GDP in regime 1 and trade openness in all three regimes have positive and significant effects on exports of petrochemicals.
پژوهشی
Mostafa Karimzadeh
Abstract
Abstract
The bilaterale trade flows has an important role in economic literature specially in international literature. Economic integration in different forms such as free trade areas, customs unions, common markets and economic unions indicates this important role. Considering Turkey as one of the ...
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Abstract
The bilaterale trade flows has an important role in economic literature specially in international literature. Economic integration in different forms such as free trade areas, customs unions, common markets and economic unions indicates this important role. Considering Turkey as one of the main trade partner of Iran, this paper intends to modeling bilateral trade flows between these countries.
We applied Marquez’s(1990) bilateral import function. According to Marquez model these varibles are determinantes of bilateral imports: gross domestic product, wholesale price index, forign export price index and exchange rate. We used Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) approach to estimate of bilateral import function between Iran and Turkey for the period (1981-2010).
The finding results verified an equilibrium long run bilateral import relation between two countries. According to our econometric estimations results for both Iran and Turkey, gross domestic product and wholesale price index have positive and significant affect on bilateral import. Whereas the influnce of forign export price index and exchange rate are significantly negative.
پژوهشی
Haghi Seyed Reza; Sabahi Ahmad
Abstract
Abstract
An efficient national innovation system is of the most important factors of development and economic growth in developed countries in which to achieve by developing countries, there are ample opportunity and capabilities, despite many weaknesses and threats.
The purpose of this research is ...
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Abstract
An efficient national innovation system is of the most important factors of development and economic growth in developed countries in which to achieve by developing countries, there are ample opportunity and capabilities, despite many weaknesses and threats.
The purpose of this research is to formulate and prioritize strategies to improve the national innovation system of Iran by using comprehensive framework for strategy formulation. Thus the study is applied and survey research in terms of purpose and methodology. The statistical population includes enforcement policy and legislative institutions such as parliament, experts of government agencies in Ministries of Science, Research and Technology and Industry, Mine and Trade, R&D centers and innovation users in industrial sectors of Khorasan Razavi. Accordingly by using one hundred interviews from questionnaire designed, strengths and weaknesses and the threats and opportunities associated with innovation system of Iran have been identified. In the next step, internal factors evaluation (IFE) and external factors evaluation (EFE) matrixes were obtained and based on effectiveness factors, internal-external matrix (IE) were plotted in order to identify strategic location. Finally, optimal strategies formulated by using SWOT matrix and then Prioritize by quantity strategic planning matrix (QSPM).
The results can be used in both practical and theoretical level. In the theoretical level, it helps to collect empirical evidence for the conceptualization and development of knowledge in the field of NIS of Iran. In Application and managerial level, this study highlights the factors and strategies for government institutions to improve the national innovation system of the country.
