Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract Banking facilities in developing countries play a pivotal role in financing and economic growth. Additionally, the strategic management of working capital is crucial for reducing credit risk and enhancing financial flexibility. While credit facilities are vital to the economy, they require effective risk management. Customer evaluation, portfolio monitoring, and managing systematic risks and non-performing loans are essential for maintaining financial stability.This study utilizes the PMG/ARDL model to examine the impact of working capital facilities on credit risk at Bank Melli Iran, seeking to determine whether these facilities influence credit risk and if proper management can mitigate such risks. The research analyzed monthly data from 35 regional management offices and ten independent branches of Melli Bank of Iran over 26 months (from April 2022 to May 2024). Working capital facilities were aggregated from data in the industrial, mining, and agricultural sectors, and credit risk was calculated by weighting three categories of non-performing loans (overdue, past due, and doubtful receivables). The stationarity analysis showed that both variables are stationary at the level. The findings indicate that the coefficient of the impact of working capital facilities on credit risk is significant. Therefore, an increase in working capital facilities, on average and assuming other conditions remain constant, reduces credit risk and decreases loan defaults.

Abstract In today's era, the wheels of Iran's economy revolve around banks, and this clearly shows the key role of banks in providing financial resources for economic enterprises. The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a policy model for the transparency of resource allocation in the banking system of Iran. The inductive research approach is based on data theory. The statistical population was experts and policy makers of the banking system and management professors, who were selected as the sample size using the saturation principle and the snowball sampling method. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to collect data. Reliability was confirmed using the agreement coefficient of two coders and the Kappa coefficient, whose value was 0.742. Max Kyoda software was used for data analysis. The results included 173 open codes in 15 components and 6 categories. 3 components and 55 open codes for causal factors, 2 components and 29 open codes for the central category, 4 components and 39 open codes for the strategy category, 2 components and 19 open codes for the consequences category, 2 components and 10 open codes for the context category, and 2 components and 21 open codes for the intervention category. It was Gerha. Based on the results, it is very important to design metrics and indicators related to resource allocation transparency in the banking system of Iran.

Abstract In different production sectors, in addition to the internal influencing components, there are some external influencing components, the occurrence of a shock in them can lead to an increase in uncertainty in the production of said sectors. Exchange rate and oil price are among these things for all countries. And the effect of the price of oil for the exporting and importing countries of this type of energy is not the same and will be different. There are not many studies on the effect of these factors on the production of different economic sectors of oil exporting countries, and the direction of the effect of this component is not clear for these countries. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the impact of oil shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of industry, agriculture and services in Iran using the ARDL model for the seasonal period from 2010 to 2021. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and library and documentary research method. The website of Iran Statistics Center and Central Bank was used to collect information. The results of this research show that for the agricultural sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in the short term is positive and significant, but the effect of oil shock is not significant. In the industry and mining sector, oil price shock has a significant and positive effect among the studied variables. Meanwhile, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the production of this sector is not significant. For the service sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and oil shock is not significant and interpretable. For the industry and mining sector, among the examined variables, in the long term, only the growth of oil prices at the level of 10% is significant and positive. The effect of the increase in the price of oil is also positive on the production value of the industry and mining sector and can lead to an increase of 0.16% in this variable.
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Abstract The interaction between the stock market and the elements of the economic system has always been one of the important issues in Iran's economy On the other hand, considering that Iran is an oil exporting country, oil price changes have always been one of the important factors of economic fluctuations in Iran. These fluctuations affect the financial markets, especially the stock market. The main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns in Iran. In this research, in order to investigate the relationships between variables, seasonal data during the period from 1392:1 to 1400:4 and the Autoregressive distributed lag model have been used. The research findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on stock returns in Iran. Also, the two variables of oil price fluctuations and real effective exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with stock returns in Iran. On the other hand, economic policy uncertainty, interest rate and industrial production index have a negative and significant relationship with stock returns in Iran. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the dependence of the country's budget on oil revenues, and also, the stock exchange organization should take the necessary measures to reduce the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the overall index of the stock exchange.

Abstract This paper tried to study the effect of credit crunch on the stagnation of industrial sector and their bilateral relationship. In addition, the role of good governance on the intensity of the relationship between these two will be examined. For this purpose, the MS-IVAR model is used. The credit crunch index is calculated based on the maximum available information and its main determinants. Data were collected with annual frequency (1996- 2020) from the most recent statistics published by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and World Bank website. The results showed that credit crunch had a positive significant effect on the stagnation of industrial sector. In addition, there is an intensified relationship between these variables. However, good governance index influence can significantly reduce the severity of effect of credit crunch, as demonstrated through interactive analysis. Therefore, promoting good governance can be mentioned as a solution to compensate for the negative effect of credit crunch on the stagnation of industrial sector

Abstract In this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the corona disease on value added of economic sectors (agriculture, industry and mine and services) in Iran. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Islamic Parliament Research Center and the central bank's input-output table were used to collect data. Also, to analyze the data, the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model and MATLAB software were used. The results showed that among the economic sectors, the service sector is more vulnerable to the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus. Also, adoption an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on value added of studied economic sectors compared to the base scenario (not adopting a monetary policy). Also, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors compared to the scenario 1 (5% reduction in the legal reserve rate) and adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors in comparison to scenario 2 (10% reduction in the legal reserve rate). Based on this, it is suggested to the monetary authorities to adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate demand and prevent the reduction of production of goods and services) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) in order to reduce the value added of economic sectors.

Abstract Among the most important reasons for establishing development banks are:
- Helping to rebuild the economies of countries;
- Strengthening infrastructure and strategic sectors;
- Separating commercial loans from development loans.
High risk and long-term returns are a major feature of large-scale economic projects, which means that the private sector does not have sufficient incentive to invest, and instead, development banks, which are considered government institutions, provide financing.

Using common bank performance evaluation criteria - which are mainly based on profitability - to measure the efficiency of development banks, whose objective function is different from that of commercial banks, is a strategic error.

In other words, the neglected point in the performance evaluation indicators of state banks, and especially development banks, is the lack of attention to the extent to which banks benefit the country's economy, which can lead to state banks being pushed into competition with private banks and as a result, the stalling of large-scale development projects.

On this basis, this research proposes three dimensions: "bank health", "development orientation" and "justice orientation", along with their relevant indicators for measuring the performance of development banks.

The dimensions, components and indicators are weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and a composite index is calculated for 5 development banks in the country during the years 1391 to 1400.

The results show that although the performance of development banking has improved in recent years, it is still far from satisfactory.

Abstract The main goal of this study is to design a suitable model of asset and Liability management of the Agricultural Bank with the purpose of achieving the set goals of the bank.
In this research, an attempt has been made to present the optimal value of assets, debts and cash in accordance with the structure of the financial statement. Given the determination of multiple goals and limitations in the banking system and the experience of the past years, the model used in this paper is the fuzzy ideal planning model with fuzzy constraints. The proposed model of the paper has the ability to present the optimal values of each items of balance sheet for the upcoming years according to the conditions of the previous years.
In order to reach the final solution, the number of ten ideals has been determined, and by solving the general model, the value of the objective function has been significantly improved, and by converting fuzzy numbers into definite numbers and by using the fuzzy ideal planning model, a suitable model of asset and debt management of financial year 2023 has been determined for this bank. And based on the results arising from the implementation of the model, we achieved seven ideals, including maximizing profit in the amount of 32,433,646 million Rials (31,634,068), complying the limitation of the ratio of facilities to deposits in the amount of (0.86) 0.85, improving the bank's share from the deposits of the bank system in the amount of 3,553,820,000 million Rials (3,273,413,445), complying the limitation of capital adequacy in the amount of (0.08) 0.0825, reducing the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets in the amount of (0.77) 0.66, green banking in the amount of (0.9) 0.091 and liquidity risk in the amount of 70,108,198 million Rials (0) and not achieved three less important ideals include increasing the amount of the items of balance sheet 4,433,821 302 million Rials (4,514,025,887), increasing the value of some items of assets compared to the total by (0.9) 0.84 and the amount of claims from banks and credit institutes is greater than the amount of their debits by the amount of 0.234 (1).

Abstract Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and financial crimes from the degree are of great importance, on this basis, the purpose of this research is to develop a model of Iran's criminal policy in the field of economic and financial crimes.
Research method: Qualitative research method with grounded theory approach. Data collection has been done through theoretical literature, policy documents, authentic research reports, and in-depth interviews, and data analysis has been done in three stages of open, central, and selective coding. The sampling method was also purposeful and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation and finally the research interviews reached theoretical saturation with 17 interviews.
Findings and results: The results based on three stages of coding, analysis of 17 in-depth interviews with participants and content analysis of several original research works and some rules and conventions resulted in 130 open codes, 46 core codes and 16 selective or core codes to a paradigm model of criminal policy. Iran's participation in the field of economy has reached. The main selective codes include: causal conditions (feeling the need for cooperative criminal policy, accepting the principle of divine sovereignty and reforming judicial and economic structures); Background conditions (civil society empowerment, strong government response and control and prevention); Intervening conditions (surveillance and monitoring and formulation of policies based on research and evaluation); Central phenomenon (Iran's collaborative criminal policy in the field of economy); Strategies (integrated institutional cooperation, the principle of balance and coordination, strengthening policy and legislation and community response); The consequences are (drawing the coordinates of Iran's criminal policy in the economy, implementing the ideals of the country's criminal policy and general tax compliance), which can answer the research questions in a paradigmatic model, as well as a comprehensive and complete description of the state of the country's criminal policy.

Abstract Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables, economic sanctions and global commodity price index on the price index of banks and credit institutions in Iran's capital market.
Method: This study is using time series data with monthly frequency during the period of 1387-1400 and using the auto-regression approach with distribution breaks (ARDL) of the estimated model. Also, the edge test was used to test the convergence of the model.
Findings: The results of the model estimation indicate that in the dynamic model, the price index of the banks and credit institutions group is significantly affected by the examined variables, and based on the collocation test, the existence of a long-term relationship was also confirmed; That is, in the long term, the price index of the group of banks and credit institutions is significantly affected by the macroeconomic variables and the global price index of commodities. The results of the error correction model have shown that any imbalance in the model moves towards balance in the long term and it takes less than two years for the short-term balance error to be corrected and the model to return to its long-term balance.
Innovation: Previous studies to examine external factors have generally considered macroeconomic variables, while Iran's capital market is a commodity-oriented market, and on the other hand, Iran's economy is affected by economic sanctions, so in the current research, in addition to the impact of macroeconomic variables, the impact of economic sanctions And the global price index of commodities has been checked on the price index of the group of banks and credit institutions.

Abstract The interest rate is an important indicator for the economy that is affected by economic factors. Macroeconomic factors that reflect the state of the economy are important for the behavior of interest rates. In addition, major global shocks such as COVID-19 can also affect interest rates. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of economic factors on the interbank interest rate in Iran with monthly data from March 2018 to March 2024 with the ARDL approach since the beginning of the epidemic and the period after that. Experimental findings showed that the exchange rate and oil price have a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in the long term during the corona and post-corona outbreak. The results show a negative and significant relationship between the consumer price index and the interest rate in the long term. In addition, the results indicate that there was no statistically significant relationship between GDP and liquidity with interest rates in the post-Corona era. The policy implications of this study provide important findings about the factors influencing interest rates in crisis situations.

Abstract Today’s behavior regarding risk control and using appropriate management tools can strengthen banks' performance in face of financial challenges. The aim of present study is to prioritize behavioral biases of managers on liquidity control of banks in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, a questionnaire was designed using AHP approach and completed by 50 bank managers. In designed questionnaire, three liquidity control criteria in Iranian banks, influential behavioral biases, and control variables for behavioral biases were compared in pairs. Then, using AHP approach, decisions made by bank managers were prioritized. The main results of study showed that among liquidity control criteria, the advertising and deposit attraction sub-criterion is affected with a higher priority than behavioral biases. Also, among the behavioral biases affecting the liquidity control criterion, the mental accounting sub-criterion had a higher priority in affecting liquidity control criterion than others. Among criteria for controlling behavioral biases, sub-criteria of managerial experience and manager gender had a higher priority on behavioral biases, which indicates that bank managers tend to classify and code liquidity in different categories in liquidity control through advertising and deposit attraction. In general, the results show role of different financial manager experience and gender of managers more clearly. Therefore, bank planners and heads can benefit from the results of the study in better control of bank liquidity.

Abstract The development of companies leads to the creation of wealth only when there is a rational cost-benefit relationship between the cost of capital and the efficiency of the projects. The cost of capital is influenced by the method of financing, and its yield is reflected in the accounting profit and finally in the stock yield. This research has investigated this issue using the differential method and on 182 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the years 2016 to 2016. The role of the financing method on the profitability of the stock market and the financial efficiency of companies with capital projects has also been investigated. The results show that in emerging economies like Iran, the performance of financial efficiency and the profitability of the stock market of companies with capital projects are not affected by their financing methods. Also, the performance trend of financial efficiency and profitability of the stock market in this research sample follows similar patterns. These findings provide new evidence regarding competing theories of corporate financing.

Abstract Today, due to climate changes caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, renewable energies play an important role in achieving sustainable development. In addition, it is inevitable for countries to join the global village and develop the financial sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of financial development and globalization on the consumption of renewable energy in the developing societies of Asia with the new moment quantile regression (MMQREG) approach during the period of 1990-2022. The results showed that energy consumption, globalization and financial development contribute to the development of clean energy in developing countries. The results show that economic growth reduces the development of green energy in developing countries. In addition, the results did not show a significant relationship between carbon emissions and green energy development in developing countries. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development through the development of clean energy, the authorities of the mentioned countries should pay special attention to the role of financial development and globalization.