Financial Economics
Mehrdad Ghani; Seyed Hossein Hosseini; Seyed Mehdi SeyedzadehSani
Abstract
Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and ...
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Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and financial crimes from the degree are of great importance, on this basis, the purpose of this research is to develop a model of Iran's criminal policy in the field of economic and financial crimes.Research method: Qualitative research method with grounded theory approach. Data collection has been done through theoretical literature, policy documents, authentic research reports, and in-depth interviews, and data analysis has been done in three stages of open, central, and selective coding. The sampling method was also purposeful and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation and finally the research interviews reached theoretical saturation with 17 interviews.Findings and results: The results based on three stages of coding, analysis of 17 in-depth interviews with participants and content analysis of several original research works and some rules and conventions resulted in 130 open codes, 46 core codes and 16 selective or core codes to a paradigm model of criminal policy. Iran's participation in the field of economy has reached. The main selective codes include: causal conditions (feeling the need for cooperative criminal policy, accepting the principle of divine sovereignty and reforming judicial and economic structures); Background conditions (civil society empowerment, strong government response and control and prevention); Intervening conditions (surveillance and monitoring and formulation of policies based on research and evaluation); Central phenomenon (Iran's collaborative criminal policy in the field of economy); Strategies (integrated institutional cooperation, the principle of balance and coordination, strengthening policy and legislation and community response); The consequences are (drawing the coordinates of Iran's criminal policy in the economy, implementing the ideals of the country's criminal policy and general tax compliance), which can answer the research questions in a paradigmatic model, as well as a comprehensive and complete description of the state of the country's criminal policy.
Financial Economics
Mehrdad Ghalami; Akabr Mirzapour Babajan
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the presence of feedback trading strategies among investors in the "Refah Coin Deposit Certificate" as a commodity-based financial instrument, as well as to analyze the symmetry or asymmetry of return volatility in response to market news. For this purpose, the Santana ...
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This study aims to investigate the presence of feedback trading strategies among investors in the "Refah Coin Deposit Certificate" as a commodity-based financial instrument, as well as to analyze the symmetry or asymmetry of return volatility in response to market news. For this purpose, the Santana and Waldany (1992) model was employed to test for the existence of feedback trading, while the GJR-GARCH model was used to examine asymmetric responses of returns to positive and negative news. Daily data covering the period from February 22, 2016 to April 21, 2025were analyzed. The results indicated an asymmetric reaction of returns to market news, with positive news having a greater impact compared to negative news. However, no evidence of feedback trading behavior was found among investors in this market. Therefore, it can be concluded that investors have primarily focused on fundamental factors rather than short-term market trends or emotional reactions. Accordingly, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to fundamental and economic variables in their decision-making processes and avoid speculative or reactive trading strategies.
Financial Economics
Saeed Kian poor; Reza Fallah Khaligh Layalestani; Mohsen Hajian
Abstract
Aim and IntroductionThis study investigates the impact of gold and silver price fluctuations on stock market indices in selected Middle Eastern countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) from 2005 to 2022, grounded in Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory. By employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector ...
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Aim and IntroductionThis study investigates the impact of gold and silver price fluctuations on stock market indices in selected Middle Eastern countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt) from 2005 to 2022, grounded in Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory. By employing a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model combined with wavelet transformation, the research examines the dynamic relationships between these variables across different time scales. The motivation stems from the critical role of gold and silver as key commodities in global and regional financial systems, particularly in resource-dependent economies like Iran and the UAE, where understanding these dynamics is essential for effective risk management.MethodologyA two-step approach integrates wavelet transformation and the TVP-VAR model. Gold and silver price series were decomposed into long-term, medium-term, and short-term frequency components to analyze their interactions with stock market indices. The TVP-VAR model was then applied to capture evolving relationships across these wavelet scales, enabling the identification of temporal and frequency-specific effects and providing nuanced insights into financial market dynamics.FindingsThe results reveal that gold and silver price fluctuations significantly influence stock market indices in the medium- and short-term wavelet scales, but no significant effects were observed in the long-term scale, indicating transient rather than stable dependencies. Significant correlations between gold, silver, and stock indices vary by country and time horizon, with stronger short-term correlations in resource-dependent economies like Iran and the UAE, and negative medium-term correlations in Egypt, reflecting diverse economic structures and policy environments.Discussion and ConclusionThe findings highlight the value of multi-scale, time-sensitive models like wavelet-based TVP-VAR for analyzing financial market dynamics. The pronounced short-term interdependencies in resource-dependent Middle Eastern countries underscore the need for proactive risk management strategies. This study contributes to the literature by integrating frequency-based analysis into econometric modeling, offering insights that can enhance policy and investment decisions for greater financial stability in the region.
Financial Economics
ghaem hashemi; Mohammad solgi; Gholam Hassan Taghi Netaj Malik Shah
Abstract
Financial stability refers to a situation where the financial system consisting of intermediaries, markets and market instruments and infrastructure are able to withstand shocks, as a result of which the possibility of disruption in the mediation process is reduced. The purpose of this research is to ...
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Financial stability refers to a situation where the financial system consisting of intermediaries, markets and market instruments and infrastructure are able to withstand shocks, as a result of which the possibility of disruption in the mediation process is reduced. The purpose of this research is to identify the determinants of financial stability, to examine their impact with an emphasis on banking industry level factors, and to provide indications for improving and strengthening financial stability. The statistical population of the current research is the collection of banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, which were included in the list of banks and financial and credit institutions of the stock exchange from 1390 to 1397, and 12 banks were selected as a sample using a systematic elimination sampling strategy. In this research, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to estimate the research model. The results obtained from the research show that competition and concentration have an inverse relationship and financial inclusion has a two-way effect on financial stability.
Financial Economics
sadegh bafandeh imandoust; mehdi behname; Mehdi Roshan
Abstract
In this study, the comparative prediction of Bitcoin price was discussed using econometric models and artificial intelligence. For this purpose, daily Bitcoin price data for the period January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2023 was collected from the Bitstamp exchange website. In addition, in this study, in ...
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In this study, the comparative prediction of Bitcoin price was discussed using econometric models and artificial intelligence. For this purpose, daily Bitcoin price data for the period January 1, 2016 to January 1, 2023 was collected from the Bitstamp exchange website. In addition, in this study, in all horizons, 70% of the data is used to train artificial intelligence models and specify econometric models, and the remaining 30% is used to test the output of artificial intelligence models and predictions outside of Samples of econometric models were assigned. Also, in order to evaluate the efficiency of the models, R^2, MAD and RMSE criteria were used. Finally, in order to check the statistical difference in the effectiveness of the investigated models in predicting the daily price of Bitcoin, the restricted F test was used. The results showed that the average daily price of Bitcoin fluctuated from $449.71 on January 1, 2016 to $16,555.75 on January 1, 2023. Also, its minimum and maximum value was $370.21 (February 3, 2016) and $67,482.75 (November 9, 2021), respectively. In addition, in all models, by increasing the prediction horizon from 1 to 4 days ahead, the effectiveness of predicting the daily price of Bitcoin decreases. Finally, the results of comparing the effectiveness of the investigated models confirm that SVM, ANFIS, GARCH and ARIMA models have the most efficiency, respectively.
Financial Economics
Sareh Amirmojahedi; Ali Raeispour Rajabali; seied abdolmajed jalaee esfandabadi; reza zeinalzadeh
Abstract
Considering that in the knowledge economy , production, distribution and application of knowledge and information is the main factor of development, produce of wealth and employment in all economic activities, therefore, it is important to examine the financial friction and financial development on the ...
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Considering that in the knowledge economy , production, distribution and application of knowledge and information is the main factor of development, produce of wealth and employment in all economic activities, therefore, it is important to examine the financial friction and financial development on the indicators of the knowledge economy of economic sectors, Therefore In this research the effect of shocks due to financial friction (increase in legal reserve rate) and financial development (reduce in bank loans interest rate) on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of each economic sector (agriculture, industry and services) was studied using Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model. For this purpose the required date was gathered from social accounting matrix of Islamic Parliament of Iran related to year 2011 and input-output table of Central Bank of Iran related to year 2016. Results indicated that shocks of financial friction have significant inverse effect and shocks of financial development have significant positive effect on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of agriculture, industry and services sectors. Because with increase in financial friction or development, the ability of banks for allocating bank loans to economic firms will reduce and consequently their knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) will reduce. In addition between studied economic sectors, the financial friction and development shocks have the most effect on knowledge base index (R&D expenditure) of industry, agriculture and services sectors, respectively.
Financial Economics
faramarz tahmasebi; alireza tamizi
Abstract
IntroductionHarry Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory is the pioneer of new theories (Markowitz, 1952). Markowitz’s mean-variance analysis is the most common method to solve the asset selection problem. In this method, the variance of asset returns is the only criterion for risk assessment. ...
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IntroductionHarry Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory is the pioneer of new theories (Markowitz, 1952). Markowitz’s mean-variance analysis is the most common method to solve the asset selection problem. In this method, the variance of asset returns is the only criterion for risk assessment. Unfavorable risks and their measurement are considered in the new financial theories about risk. Value at risk (VaR) is one of the most commonly used indicators in this field (Jorion, 1997, 2000). For the first time, Bamol (1963) proposed the concept of VaR as a new model for risk assessment (Alexander and Baptistab, 2002). But since the early 1990s, it has been widely used as a tool to assess risk. Hanifi (2010), in his first research on the model of VaR in Iran, calculated and compared VaR of different companies in Iran and several foreign countries. In the conducted studies, the portfolio risk of joint-stock companies was calculated by the VaR approach and using different models. The research results were compared with the variance criterion in some of these studies (i.e. a research by Karimi). Financial markets are among the most important and influential markets of any country. Stock market is considered as one of the important components of financial markets. On the other hand, stock asset is one of the important components of people's asset portfolio; its price usually changes due to the economic fluctuations. It is believed that the demand for maintaining other assets will be influenced by changing the return in one of the components of the asset portfolio; therefore, the people's asset portfolio composition will be changed. In this study, the effect of changes in the stock market returns on the people’s asset portfolio composition was condsidered by using the VaR criterion and the mean-VaR model in different periods of the stock market.Theoretical frameworkIn general, two theories are considered more in the literature of financial economics and topics on optimal portfolio determination; Modern portfolio theory and ultra-modern portfolio theory. Optimal asset allocation and optimal portfolio recognition are done according to the optimization based on the mean and variance of asset returns in modern portfolio theory, which was first introduced by Markowitz. Markowitz's mean-variance model, based on a specific level of return rates, obtains optimal values of risk based on minimizing the variance of the total assets in the portfolio (Markowitz, 1952)In another theory, optimal asset allocation and optimal portfolio recognition are done based on the relationship between return and unfavorable risk criteria. Ultra-modern portfolio theories explain the behavior of investors and portfolio selection based on the relationship between return and unfavorable risk. In this theory, unfavorable risk (fluctuations lower than the investor's target rate of return) is defined as a risk measurement index. From the viewpoint of the theory, risk as an emotional status is more representative of the fear of an unfavorable event such as loss or less performance than expectations or lack of access to the desired goal. So, unfavorable risk measures can explain it mathematically in a better way (Adami, 2012). Value at risk (VaR) is one of these measures. The risk of assets is calculated using VaR approach in the Mean-VaR model and it is used in the model.Research Methodology The study’s population was consisted of the price of assets, such as land, housing, gold coins, currency, stocks, bonds and bank deposits. These assets’ prices were extracted from the website of Iranian Central Bank and Statistics Center from 1991 to 2021. Then, the return and standard deviation of return on assets were calculated and used in the study. Dickey-Fuller test was used to review the stationarity of time series. Most macroeconomic variables are correlated of the first degree (integrated of 1). It is expected that data to be fixed after one time differentiation. Since the data used in this study is in the form of growth rate, it is expected that the data to be fixed. The results indicated that all the data are fixed as expectations. In order to conduct the research, after calculating the return, expected return and correlation coefficients of return on assets by Markowitz model, the asset risk with the 95% confidence level and the short-term (one-year), medium-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) time horizons. year) were estimated using the VaR model (parametric method). Statistical calculations were performed and the results were extracted by using mean-VaR model.ConclusionIn order to select the optimal portfolio, the results of the statistical analysis indicated that the asset portfolio composition is changed due to the change in the ratio of return to risk during the entire period with respect to different time horizons. People's asset portfolio mostly includes stocks and housing during the period when stock returns are positive. Although there is a very high risk for investing in stocks, but it has a high share in people's investment portfolio due to the higher risk-return ratio in this period. At the same time as the stock returns become negative, a most change is occured in asset portfolio composition. So that stocks are completely removed from people's portfolios and are replaced by bonds and bank deposits. Under this condition, the entire asset portfolio almost consistes of the bonds and bank deposits in the short-term period.These two assets, in addition to low risk, have consistent returns for investors. The results represented that the change in stock returns lead to changing the asset portfolio composition in different periods. Since there is not a study to investigate and determine the people’s asset portfolio composition in different conditions of the stock market, it is not possible to compare this study’s results with other studies
Financial Economics
Habib Ansari Samani; dariush Fareed; golnazosadat alavi nasab; farzaneh jandaghi
Abstract
In the past two years, the Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced severe fluctuations and a significant decline due to various factors. One of the important factors is the herding behavior of investors, Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange exhibit emotional and sometimes irrational behaviors towards ...
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In the past two years, the Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced severe fluctuations and a significant decline due to various factors. One of the important factors is the herding behavior of investors, Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange exhibit emotional and sometimes irrational behaviors towards buying and selling orders as well as market growth and recession, which can lead to herding behavior. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of herding behavior of investors on stock price fluctuations and industry indices. The target population of the study is all active and accepted companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange whose shares have been traded from 2015 to 2021, and a sample of 156 companies has been selected from among 18 industries using systematic elimination method. In order to collect the required financial data and information, reported data from financial statements and audited financial statements of listed companies for a period of 7 years have been used and analyzed. Various statistical tests such as Limmer and Haseman F-test, Breusch-Pagan test, and panel data test have been used for inferential analysis of variables, and the results have been estimated using time series regression models and panel data, indicating that the herding behavior of investors has a significant impact on stock price fluctuations and industry indices. Additionally, these emotional behaviors and decision-making of investors can lead to increased volatility of returns and market instability.
Financial Economics
reza khalillo; mahdi abdolhamid; Ali Rezaeian
Abstract
Importance- Performance Analysis (IPA) of Policies to Reform the Banking System of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the Islamic Banking ApproachIn the current research, the policies of reforming the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been analyzed. In the qualitative ...
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Importance- Performance Analysis (IPA) of Policies to Reform the Banking System of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the Islamic Banking ApproachIn the current research, the policies of reforming the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been analyzed. In the qualitative section, articles published from 2000 to 2020 in reliable domestic and foreign databases in the field of Islamic banking were examined. To analyze the articles, the meta analysis approach and the seven-step method of Sandlowski and Barroso (2007) were used. The research sample included 23 experts in the field of Islamic banking who were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. In data collection, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with the Islamic banking approach through library studies and literature review. Through library studies and systematic literature review, the researchers extracted the banking system reform policies with Islamic banking approach. In the quantitative stage, the researchers analyzed the identified reform policies through the importance-performance analysis method. The findings of the research show that reform policies such as requiring the formation of specialized sub-committees of the Jurisprudence Council in banks, establishing a connection between money supply and the real sector of the economy, changing the formal operations of Islamic contracts to real Islamic operations, especially profit and loss sharing and formulating and approving the prerequisites for obtaining a managerial position based on having the ability, experience in Islamic banking, along with the training of banking jurisprudents, is one of the policies that should be taken into consideration by decision makers.
Financial Economics
Ahmad Agheli; Seyyed Ali Paytakhti Oskooe; Nader Mehregan; Monireh Dizaji
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Considering the role of the capital market in the economy of countries and studying the performance of this market has a particular importance. One of the factors that affect the performance of the capital market is the decisions made regarding the financial structure of companies’ ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Considering the role of the capital market in the economy of countries and studying the performance of this market has a particular importance. One of the factors that affect the performance of the capital market is the decisions made regarding the financial structure of companies’ performance in this market. Today, in fact, the credit rating of companies is largely dependent on their financial structure, or in other words, their capital structure, and in fact, the basis of production and service provision depends on the way financial funds are provided and used. On the other hand, the financial structure of each company is an early warning regarding the number of financial resources of the company, and it is necessary to determine the factors affecting their financial structure in the strategic planning of companies. Many variables affect the financial structures of stock companies, among which we can mention financing with Islamic instruments. Sukuk is one of the important financial instruments and conforms with the Islamic Shari'ah, which provide an alternative source of funding, especially for large (very active) companies, and more efficient sources compared to conventional bonds.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
In financial field, the way in which the company invests is called financial structure. Financial structure, or in other words capital structure, describes the long-term capital financing of a company, which represents debt and equity, and is a type of permanent financing that supports the growth of the company and related assets. One of the most important functions of the Islamic financial system is to facilitate financial flow and guide it towards the most efficient type of investment, and as a facilitator of financial flow, it gives producers the opportunity to move economic resources with greater speed and accuracy by relying on monetary and financial resources. The existence of these types of financial instruments increases capital efficiency and optimal allocation of resources in companies. Since Islamic financing can lead to global financial stability and economic growth; Therefore, wider access to financial services improves social participation and increases market power, and ultimately strengthens protective laws and solves problems and issues of financial development, and increases profitability and improves the financing process of companies.
3- METHODOLOGY
This research is considered as applied research in terms of its objective; Because it examines the relationships between variables, the subject of the research is the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization in terms of location, and the time scope of the research is from the fiscal year 2010 to 2019 by using the annual data of the companies. The 83 companies were selected as the statistical sample used in the research. In order to estimate the effects of the variables, the panel data technique with Johnssen's approach is used. In this research, the variable of financial structure is used as dependent variable and the variables of ejare sukuk, murabaha sukuk, sode sukuk, istisna sukuk and mosharekat sukuk are used as explanatory variables.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
According to the empirical results of this study, all new Islamic financing instruments had a positive effect on the financial structure index (ratio of capital to assets). In the long run, ejare sukuk, murabaha sukuk, sode sukuk, istisna sukuk and mosharekat sukuk explain 7.06, 20.32, 0.07, 3.32 and 0.84 percent respectively, of the changes in the financial structure index.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The present study investigates effectiveness of the financial structure of listed companies from new Islamic financing instruments (Sukuk) by using the panel data technique with the Johanssen approach. For this purpose, the data of 83 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange has been used during the years 2010 to 2019. According to the research results, instruments had a positive effect on the financial structure index (ratio of capital to assets). Accordingly, the issue of sukuk can significantly improve the financial structure of companies. Companies should use a complete combination of modern financing tools (Sukuk) to achieve benefits such as increasing liquidity, increasing shareholders' wealth and increasing diversity in financing sources.
Financial Economics
mahdieh rezagholizadeh; majid aghaei; mehran abbaszadeh
Abstract
The global crude oil market has experienced a significant downturn since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in December 2019. Considering the importance of safe haven asset in recent years, this paper empirically investigates the time-varying correlations between Bitcoin and oilmarkets to examine whether ...
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The global crude oil market has experienced a significant downturn since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in December 2019. Considering the importance of safe haven asset in recent years, this paper empirically investigates the time-varying correlations between Bitcoin and oilmarkets to examine whether Bitcoin is a safe haven asset for the international crude oil markets during the 2014-2021 (daily) with emphasis on COVID-19 period).The results of the time-varying correlations obtained through the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-GARCH) model show that during the period of investigation (2014-2020), there is a positive conditional correlation between Bitcoin and crude oil, and this positive conditional correlation increase during the period of the Covid-19 virus. This result indicates that Bitcoin cannot be accepted as a safe haven for crude oil fluctuations and can only be considered as a diversifier in the asset portfolio.Keywords: Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Covid- 19, Safe Haven, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH)
Financial Economics
Seyyed Abdollah razavi; Seyyed Mohammad Javadi
Abstract
Investment funds are one of the suitable tools for investing in the capital market, which manage risk by diversifying the composition of assets. The first refining fund was launched by the government in 2019. Based on economic theories, it was expected that the price of the investment units of this fund ...
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Investment funds are one of the suitable tools for investing in the capital market, which manage risk by diversifying the composition of assets. The first refining fund was launched by the government in 2019. Based on economic theories, it was expected that the price of the investment units of this fund would be higher than the value of the assets in that fund, but for various reasons, this did not happen and the price of the shares of this fund has always been sold below the nominal value. The purpose of this research is to identify the influencing factors on the activities and evaluate the performance of this fund. This research is of the type of library studies, through interviews with experts, 16 important factors affecting the performance of the 1st Refinery Fund were identified. Finally, the information was collected from the questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale to answer the questions of the questionnaire. In this regard, the required quantitative information was collected through the design and distribution of a questionnaire among 35 experts and analyzed using the statistical method of analysis of variance (ANOVA). The results of the research show that the identified factors have affected the performance of the 1st Refinery Fund in different ways.
Financial Economics
Mahdi Jalili; Elnaz Entezar; Tahereh Akhoondzadeh Yousefi; Mohammad Sokhanvar
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Undoubtedly, it is possible to achieve long-term and continuous economic growth in any country by equipping and optimally allocating investment resources in the national economy of that country, and the role of developed financial markets is necessary to achieve this goal. In fact, the ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
Undoubtedly, it is possible to achieve long-term and continuous economic growth in any country by equipping and optimally allocating investment resources in the national economy of that country, and the role of developed financial markets is necessary to achieve this goal. In fact, the role and importance of the financial system in the development process of countries is such that the difference between developed and developing economies can be found in the degree of efficiency and effectiveness of their financial system. Financial development is a category, which, according to the developments of financial markets, following the discussions of globalization and financial integration after the 70s, was taken into the attention of economists. Therefore, considering the importance of the financial development category in different countries, the study of factors affecting it has always been emphasized. Financial development is a set of factors, policies and institutions that lead to the creation of effective financial markets and financial intermediaries and provide deep and wide access to capital and financial services.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Many factors can influence the development process of financial markets, among which, the role of the combined index of globalization and inflation can be very important. Some economists and economic policymakers, such as Greenaway and Baltaji, believe that globalization leads to better macroeconomic performance and faster financial development in terms of financial and commercial openness, which many empirical studies support this view. International institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Economic Development advise member countries to believe that commercial and financial liberalization has a positive effect on financial development.
3- METHODOLOGY
In this research, the non-linear effects of globalization and inflation on the financial development index (facilities granted by the banking system) in Iran during the period 1368 to 2020 have been investigated by using the Markov switching econometric technique.
In this study, the dependent variable is financial development, and the independent variables are inflation, globalization, capital stock, and government spending.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
In the first regime, the economic dimension of globalization has a positive effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to the increase in the economic dimension of globalization, the index of financial development (facilities granted by the banking system) increases. But in the second regime, the economic dimension of globalization has a negative effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to the increase in the economic dimension of globalization, the index of financial development (facilities granted by the banking system) decreases.
Inflation caused by demand pressure and monetary inflation in both regimes has a negative effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to the increase in inflation caused by demand pressure and monetary inflation, the index of financial development (facilities granted by the banking system) decreases.
Human capital in both regimes has a positive effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to the increase in human capital, the financial development index (facilities granted by the banking system) increases.
In the first regime, capital stock has a positive effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to an increase in capital stock, the index of financial development (facilities granted by the banking system) increases. But in the second regime, it has no effect on financial development. Government spending in both regimes has a negative effect on financial development, which indicates that, due to an increase in government spending, the financial development index (facilities granted by the banking system) decreases.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The results of the estimates indicate that the sources of inflation (inflation caused by demand pressure and monetary inflation, structural inflation, inflation caused by cost pressure and imported inflation) had a negative effect on financial development in both regimes. Regarding the dimensions of globalization (economic dimension, social dimension and political dimension), we saw a positive relationship in the first regime and a negative relationship in the second regime. In connection with the results of the control variables, the variables of capital stock and human capital in both regimes had a positive effect on banking facilities, but the effect of government spending on banking facilities in both regimes was negative. Now, according to the results, policy proposals are presented as follows:
- What can be stated with certainty is that paying attention to globalization and joining international organizations such as the World Trade Organization can help improve the performance of financial development indicators in Iran. Because Iran has a long way to go on the path of globalization and integration into it. Therefore, the economic, political, social and cultural dimensions, especially the political dimension, need a fundamental revision.
