Original Article
soheil roudari; masod homayounifar; mostafa salimifar
Abstract
Introduction: The banking network plays a prominent role in the financing of businesses. In recent years, due to increased government spending and disproportionate increases in government revenues, a budget deficit has been created, and due to the high dependence between the government and the banking ...
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Introduction: The banking network plays a prominent role in the financing of businesses. In recent years, due to increased government spending and disproportionate increases in government revenues, a budget deficit has been created, and due to the high dependence between the government and the banking network, in some cases increased current spending has been provided through borrowing from the banking network. Theoretical Framework: One of the most important factors that effect on the formation of the financial crisis is the instability in other financial markets, especially the exchange rate, which affects the GDP of the country and the current expenditures of the government, and affecting the performance of the banking sector subsequently. By affecting the government budget, the exchange rate can affect the motivation of the government and government-affiliated companies to obtain loans and facilities from the banking network. Also, the increase in the exchange rate by increasing the cost of goods and services leads to a decrease in disposable income and subsequently a decrease in people's consumption. According to dependence of industrial sector to imports of intermediary goods, changes in exchange rate causes a change in the supply sector (Boschi & D' Addona, 2019). On the other hand, exchange rate volatility due to the uncertainty and increases in the cost of production has been effective on government debt to the banking system and current expenditures (Adrian & Shin,2010). Methodology: In this study, using the wavelet transform model during the period of 1388-1397 monthly, the nominal exchange rate volatilities, government debt to the banking network, and current government expenditures are divided into three levels by using wavelet transform. In fact, wavelet transform explains the deviation from the main trend. To examine the relationship between the variables, the use of patterns such as Granjer causality is used, which provides a momentary criterion of causality test, therefore, it is unable to analyze the dynamics and reliability of variables relationship. In addition, in such methods, because the lag of variables can be used, it is possible to eliminate the immediate effects. Spectral analysis is used to solve this problem (Aguiar, et al.,2008). Results and Discussion: In the short term, there is no significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations. Interestingly, there is a significant correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. This indicates that about 17% of the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and government debt to the banking network are consistent. Significantly, there is a relatively high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations in the short term, and about 32.5 percent of changes and fluctuations in each have led to a change in the other one, and in fact It can show the lack of independence of the country's banking network and the dependence and attitude of the government to provide current expenses from this source. There is a positive and significant correlation between nominal exchange rate fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations in the medium term. Of course, only about 19% of the fluctuations in each are positively followed by other fluctuations. In the medium term, the movement between exchange rate fluctuations and government debt to banking network fluctuations increases compared to the short-term (0.26), and this can also indicate the delayed effects of the exchange rate. Interestingly, there is a high correlation between government debt to banking network fluctuations and current government spending fluctuations, and over a longer period the fluctuations between the two are more intense in terms of intensity and direction. The time factor plays a very important role in the correlation between government debt fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations. The correlation between these two cases started from about 0.17 in the short term and reached 0.53 in the long run. In terms of time factor, it has shown more biger about fluctuations in current government expenditures and fluctuations in government debt to banks than the other cases. The correlation between the two fluctuations has risen from 32.5 percent in the short term to 76 percent in the long term. Conclusions and Suggestions: government and the banking network have a close relationship with each other, and this relationship is due to the fact that many of the country's banks are state-owned be greater in the long run. In fact, this is one of the main reasons for the non-performing loans in the country's banking network, and the government has used its bargaining power to cover its current expenditures, which have been very volatile in recent years and take loans and did not pay on time. In fact, based on the results, banking network has been a tool to cover current government expenditures, and due to exchange rate fluctuations in the country and increasing government current expenditures, government debt to the banking network can increase and reduce the credit ability of the banking network and can lead to inefficient allocation of resources.
پژوهشی
Mohsen Niazimohseni; Hamid Shahrestani; Kambiz Hojabr Kiani; Farhad Ghafari
Abstract
Introduction Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency ...
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Introduction Monetary and financial affiliation, always closely linked to oil sector in Iran (as an oil exporter country) has made Monetary Policy a remarkable challenge to the economic policy- makers. In fact, according to expected statistics, a considerable amount of budget is provided by currency sources from oil export and withdrawal from foreign exchange reserve account by which Central Bank inevitably buys currency resulting to increase monetary base. Lack of possibility of mathematical anticipation and uncertainty of oil revenues to finance is one of the challenges monetary authorities encounter in Iran. Accordingly, mathematical programing for economic stability requires identifying the effect of Monetary Policy based on oil revenue. Examination of the effect of Monetary Policy in economics started with the theory of '' the amount of money''. Economic experts are of different viewpoints on the impact of Monetary Policy on Marco variables. According to theoretical and experimental literature, Monetary Policy makes an outstanding difference on Marco variables. On the other hand such policies are extinguished by oil revenue leading to more obscurity. Theoretical framework According to the existing literature, the way of applying Monetary Policy is different in oil exporter and importer countries. when oil price rises, Central bank, In order to control inflation, increases the interest rate, and Monetary Policy acts as a contraction in oil importer countries. However, in oil exporter countries, when oil price rises, currency revenues, mainly in the hands of the government, increases, and the government, by converting part of oil dollars to domestic currency, intentionally or unintentionally, increases the amount of money to provide its expenses. So, in exporter countries like Iran, oil revenues directly affect economic Macro variables. They, also, indirectly affect through Monetary Policy. Methodology The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of monetary policy on economic Marco variables due to oil revenues. This study has, also, used interest rate variable, bank facilities, and legal reserve rate on monetary policy. Such variables have been used, indoors or outdoors, in different economic studies. Basically, in this study, the economic Marco variables are also economic growth and inflation rate respectively due to the limited access to information and also other existing limitations. To measure the economic growth rate, GDP growth rate at a fixed price has been used. The inflation rate resulted from consumer price index growth rate (CPI). In this study, using STATA software, the variables have been used from the years 1978 to 2017. Results & Discussion The results of this study have shown that the rise in bank interest rate has run down the economic growth rate at least up to two years after applying the shock. It drifted towards zero afterwards. With the rise in bank interest rate growth, the cost of financing has been decimated resulting to investment reduction. On the other hand, with the rise in bank interest rate, the inflation rate has been reduced. It is obvious shock standard deviation in bank facilities interest rate has, up to three periods after applying the shock, left positive impact on inflation rate, and the impact has been reduced to zero. Economic growth reveals like bank facilities rate, such a variable has a negative impact on Iran's economic growth. The rise in legal reserve rate has been one period after applying the shock up to zero in the second period. On the other hand, the impact of legal reserve rate has been positive on inflation rate. It has been shown that shock standard deviation reduces inflation rate in legal reserve rate. The rise in oil revenues leads the rise in economic growth rate, thus, reduced to zero up to two periods after applying the shock. With increasing oil revenues, by the government's expenses increase as well. Thus, it leads to the rise in demand, and also, economic growth indoors. Conclusions & Suggestions Based on the results, implementation of monetary policy in Iran has negative effect on economic growth, which is also consistent with the Iran Economy, so policymakers must use another policy for stimulating the economic growth. Put on the agenda.
پژوهشی
Saeed Asadiqaragoz; Alireza DaghighiAsli; Ghadir Mahdaviklishomi; Marjan Damankeshideh
Abstract
Introduction Globalization is an undeniable phenomenon that affects all variables and indicators of countries not only economically but also politically and socially. Countries that cannot accept this phenomenon will be deprived of their blessings. The insurance industry is one of the most important ...
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Introduction Globalization is an undeniable phenomenon that affects all variables and indicators of countries not only economically but also politically and socially. Countries that cannot accept this phenomenon will be deprived of their blessings. The insurance industry is one of the most important outlines of the financial development triangle that is affected by the phenomenon of globalization. Over the past 30 years, globalization in business markets has developed so much that its role in the financial markets cannot be denied. The time and place barriers that insurers and reinsurers defined for themselves no longer make sense. Facilitating the process of globalization in the insurance industry allows international insurance companies to have an active presence in the markets of developed countries, especially developing countries, which warms the competition between domestic and international insurers. The phenomenon of globalization in developing countries can have different effects on the insurance industry, which can lead to the development of the insurance industry in the face of international competition or weaken the insurance industry in developing countries. Considering the importance of the subject in the present study, the effect of globalization on the insurance industry in the "developing countries of the Iran Vision Region" and "developed countries" is comparatively investigated. Theoretical framework Many studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of globalization indicators on economic, social, political, etc. variables, which often point to the importance of this phenomenon. Some studies have also cited this phenomenon as a threat to some developing societies. There have been few studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry that has been mentioned in the literature of the present study. . The results of this research also point to the positive and significant effects of this phenomenon on the insurance industry. Successful examples of this phenomenon in the insurance industry include the performance of large international insurance companies such as AXA and Allianz in Mena countries, which have a large share of the market in these countries. They have also led to the growth of domestic insurance companies. The contradictory results of earlier studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry in developed countries and emerging markets show the need for the present study to see whether emerging countries stand up to this phenomenon to support the national insurance industry or, like developed countries. Pave the way for globalization. The contradictory results of earlier studies on the impact of globalization on the insurance industry in developed countries and emerging markets show the need for the present study. Should emerging countries stand up to globalization in order to support the national insurance industry? Or support globalization like developed countries. In the present study, using the mathematical model, the effect of globalization not only economically but also politically, socially, and in general on the penetration of insurance by life, non-life, and general insurance in the two groups of selected developed countries and groups of countries. Iran's perspective is examined. Methodology In the present study, based on standard econometric methods such as panel data and by using Eveiws and STATA software, we estimate the model and based on the results, we propose policies to develop the insurance industry. The following mathematical models are derived from the combined economic models of studies (Chiang & Yi-Bin, 2016), (AsadiGharagoz, et al., 2017) and (Williams & Balcilar, 2020). The mathematical and conceptual model of the research is described in Table 1: Table 1. Mathematical models of research models Globalization and the insurance industry models Globalization and life insurance models Globalization and non-life insurance 1 penit= β1penit-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit 5 lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit 9 np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gtotit+ β3Xit 2 penit= β1penit-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit 6 lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit 10 np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2gEcoit+ β3Xit 3 penit= β1penit-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit 7 lp < sub>it= β1lp < sub>it-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit 11 np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gsocit+ β3Xit 4 np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit 8 np < sub>it= β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit 12 β1np < sub>it-1+ β2Gpolit+ β3Xit The variables used in the above patterns are: Insurance penetration coefficient, life insurance penetration coefficient, non-life insurance penetration coefficient, globalization indicators (general, economic, social, political) and control variables (real GDP, inflation rate, urbanization rate and population growth rate) For developing countries, the dependent variable interrupt is eliminated and the models are considered static. Results & Discussion In developed countries, social globalization, general globalization, political globalization, and economic globalization have had the greatest impact on insurance penetration in general, respectively. The degree of significance of all variables of globalization in explaining the changes in the penetration rate of general insurance has been at the level of 99%. But in "Iran Vision Countries", globalization, political globalization, and economic globalization, respectively, have had the greatest impact on insurance penetration in general. Among these, economic globalization and general globalization, respectively, had the highest significance at the level of 0.95% in explaining changes in insurance penetration. Examination of the both intensity and degree of significance, we come to the conclusion that the intensity of the impact of globalization on insurance penetration in developed countries is higher than in Iran. In developed countries, the social dimension of globalization and in the perspective countries of Iran, the economic dimension of globalization has had the greatest and most significant effect on insurance penetration. By carefully examining the effect of the dimensions of globalization on the penetration rate of life and non-life insurance, we will reach more accurate results from this study. In developed countries, respectively, economic globalization, social globalization, and globalization have the greatest impact on reducing the penetration rate of non-life insurance. But in the "Iran Vision" countries, political, general and economic globalization, respectively, have had the greatest impact on increasing the penetration rate of non-life insurance. Comparatively reviewing the results, we conclude that in developed countries, economic globalization has the greatest impact on reduction and in the countries of "Iran Vision" and Iran, political globalization has the greatest impact on the penetration rate of non-life insurance. Conclusions & Suggestions 1- Determinates of the least portfolio for life insurance premiums by the Central Insurance for insurance companies: Due to the restrictions announced by Central Insurance, insurance companies make their advertising, educational and cultural efforts to increase the penetration rate of insurance they live. 2- By developing international relations, the government can pavé the way for international insurance companies to enter the country: This policy of expansion causes the insurance industry to develop in two dimensions: "FPI" and transfer of technical knowledge. 3- Developing the supply of insurance services in deprived areas 4- Inflation control and population control policies by the government in conditions of stagflation
پژوهشی
Hossein Takroosta; Yaghoub Maharati; Mostafa Kazemi; Mohammad Hossein Mahdavi Adeli
Abstract
Introduction Faced with fierce competition, market pressure, and the need to adapt to environmental changes, organizations cannot limit domains of their activities to specific sectors, and they are needed to make transformative decisions, including setting up new businesses, acquisition of other ...
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Introduction Faced with fierce competition, market pressure, and the need to adapt to environmental changes, organizations cannot limit domains of their activities to specific sectors, and they are needed to make transformative decisions, including setting up new businesses, acquisition of other companies, and diversifying their activities. Increasing changes and changes in the scientific, economic and social spheres are one of the main features of the present era. Entrepreneurship and innovation is a must and need for many companies today in a competitive environment that seeks to survive and be effective. Therefore, many companies are desperately looking for innovative and entrepreneurial approaches to improve their results and performance in the areas of products, services and processes. Corporate entrepreneurial approach is the development of new ideas, methods, processes and opportunities within pre-established organizations (Hodge,2008). Considering the components of corporate entrepreneurship in running a business increases the competitiveness of companies and gains market success and ultimately enhances the financial performance of companies. The purpose of this study is to identify the effective factors on corporate entrepreneurship in the international literature and finally to use the knowledge of indigenous components of corporate entrepreneurship and extract them after extraction. Components, examines the impact of native components on the financial performance of selected companies. Theoretical Framework One of the effective measures can be taken by companies to stabilize markets and create competitive edge is to employ corporate entrepreneurship tools. Using this approach, companies are creating and utilizing entrepreneurial traits in order to transform. Studies show that utilizing such methods improves corporate performance and makes value for shareholders and other stakeholders. Since the 1980s, as emerging economies have made remarkable advances in industrial production and export, manufacturers and industrialists have faced emerging and powerful competitors in the marketplace. This confrontation has led many large corporations to risk losing their traditional markets and customers. Knowledge products and competitive pricing on the one hand, and the rapid pace of technology change on the other hand, increased the pressure for businesses to compete. Corporate Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurship is a mechanism for economists that provides optimal allocation of resources using the opportunities at stake (Caliendo & Kritikos, 2012). Calisto & Sarkar (2017) have considered corporate entrepreneurship components including innovation and risk-taking to achieve different degrees of entrepreneurial behavior and thus different levels of organizational innovation and performance. In analyzing the impact of corporate entrepreneurship on the financial performance of manufacturing firms, Octan and Bulut (2008) have considered the impact of corporate entrepreneurship components including innovation, risk-taking, pioneering and aggressive competition on the financial performance. Zahra (1993) studied the relationship between firm environment and corporate entrepreneurship including: innovation, organizational restructuring, and new business creation with financial performance. The study also showed that corporate entrepreneurship has a positive and significant effect on financial performance. Miller (1983, 2011) examines the important determinants of corporate entrepreneurship. According to the results, the impact of different factors on corporate entrepreneurship depends on the type of firm. Financial performance A wide range of indicators are used to evaluate corporate financial performance. In for-profit businesses, maximizing equity dividends is the primary goal of companies. To evaluate the success of this objective, the asset return index is used as the primary indicator. Methodology To achieve this goal, reviewing current literature in corporate entrepreneurship, we, first, try to identify the components of corporate entrepreneurship. Then, the identified components were reviewed by elites to screen exotic components out. In the third step, juxtaposing performance of the selected companies, we compare the entrepreneurial rank and financial performance of the companies. Results and Discussion Our findings highlight that, in line with international research papers, there is a significant relationship between the entrepreneurship rank of companies and their financial performance. Creativity and innovation In order for these features to flourish, managers must devote considerable resources to this area. Another notable case in this section is the importance of selecting managers based on their creativity and innovation characteristics. Risk-taking Companies and managers must carefully study the characteristics of their risk-taking in recruiting individuals, and look at their family, environmental, social, and professional backgrounds using human resources. Competition Companies must adopt groundbreaking behaviors in order to improve their competitive position compared to other companies, and this approach is due to formulating a strategic competitive plan and targeting all corporate actions to achieve this goal. Conclusion and suggestions According to the results, some suggestions are put forward to make more use of the research results in the business environment of the companies under study. The need for self-renewal and adaptation requires that the capabilities and resources of the company change from time to time, so the strategic plan of the corporation should include specific objectives in order to adapt to the environment. In the case of strategic restructuring, corporate executives should be committed to providing favorable conditions to create strategic restructuring and to encourage employees to take this path. Given the competitive economic environment, proper planning to achieve competitive advantage and seek new opportunities is one of the most important tasks for corporate executives. Strategic variables Having a proper roadmap is definitely one of the key factors in the success of companies. In the face of ever-increasing economic competition, a comprehensive and dynamic strategic plan is crucial, taking into account market and competitor aspects and the type of product and service provided by companies. Therefore, corporate boards should formulate, review, and approve strategic plans that are appropriate to corporate goals and seek to control CEOs to fully implement these plans. Studies show that organizational structure is the most appropriate tool for creating entrepreneurship in organizations. An overview of the evolution of organizational structure shows that traditional organizational structures are not capable of nurturing creative and innovative individuals. Given the very high importance of corporate culture in corporate entrepreneurship implementation, boards of directors and CEOs need to spend time and money on reforming corporate culture patterns and gradually reforming and implementing entrepreneurial culture in the company.
پژوهشی
afsane javadi
Abstract
General Studies conducted in the field of the Phillips curve, in addition to past periods of inflation, output gap, unemployment, and real marginal cost of production used to show as effective variable on the right in Iran and other developing countries. This is while the New Keynesian paradigm ...
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General Studies conducted in the field of the Phillips curve, in addition to past periods of inflation, output gap, unemployment, and real marginal cost of production used to show as effective variable on the right in Iran and other developing countries. This is while the New Keynesian paradigm suggests that each country requires different models according to the specific conditions of its economy. Theorical Framework In this Phillips study curve in New Keynesian paradigm’s frame work will be modeled and estimated sticky prices. Work’s idea is very simple. central Bank can to reduce Domestic money value unexpectedly. It does this work with increased supply in foreign exchange market. Finally increase in the money supply lead to increase the prices. However, prices and bondage, markets will be settled after a while and also there will be a combination of the read male of the lower currency and average inflation above equilibrium. In this story modeling was do according to important role of oil in Iran’s economy. Study’s model has two sections: household and Business. Economic hous eholds maximize their utility are the functional from them consume and time work due to the balances of the whole economy (In addition to the profits of securities purchased by households, it’s income includes income from fixed existing sales from natural resource with random global prices in international market and the cost is the cost of buying inner mediate materials). Businesses also maximize their profits (which are a function of income from the sale of their goods at sticky prices and costs from purchasing imported raw materials and employment labor). But since export of find good produced in Iran is very weal and oil and gas formed the main exports of Iran. Therefore, with this theory that economic has the fixed existential from natural resource that sale in international market with random global prices can to said that extreme of export income is an exogenous variable them inter economic situation. Currency supply in Iran is stable and exchange rate change effect on currency demand and import rate and prices of important goods. Hence the change in the exchange rate on the one hand due to the increase in the prices of imported input was used in production. Through the optimization function, the producer profit changes the optimal price and itself to change in the optimal rate of labor hours of the labor force become through the production function and its desirability change by the consumer optimization function desirability. Consumer desirability changes their request for final goods and the service of the economy. Therefor change the prices. So, increase in optimal rate leads to a general level change in prices. This study is about Iran’s economic that is very depended to goods export such as oil, gas ond raw materials. This good formed major share of Iran’s export and inter produced exported goods is very weak in this country. The common Phillips curve includes the output gap (which is the difference between output and its flexibile price level). This level of the flexible production prices is not known and is usually estimated by the Log-linearization, or the quadratic trend or the trend obtained by using Hodrick-Prescott Filter and Band-Pass Filter. Methodology Philips curve estimating quarterly data for Iran’s economic since 1980-2018. Price indicator for consumer and inter gross generation has exploited from Iran central Bank’s data. Price indicator for foreigner consumer was used from American’s data to exploited U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistic. Estimation do in two section. First, digression red rate of optimal will computed from basic worth and then this deviation will have used in Philips curve regression. The Hadrick Prescott filter was used to estimate the deviation of the real exchange rate from the steady state value. After designing the research model, it is time to estimate it. Rational expectation Philips carves regression (with forward expectations) cannot to be estimated by ordinary least squares method directly because; error terms depend on estimators. One solution is to exchange current’s inflation, to inflational expectation. Therefore, Generalized Method of Moments which is estimated in a simple linear mode by the instrumental variable method has been used. Estimate show that coefficient of real exchange rate gap in estimated regression recommended. J. Hanson statistics which is used to test the number of over-identified constraints (equal to the value of the minimum objective function), confirms the validity of model. Sargan Test shows the correlation of instruments with error term. The result express that this model stated properly and the selected tools are valid. Results and Discussion The results show that the standard New Keynesian Phillips curve can be expressed as an exchange between inflation and the real exchange rate for oil-exporting countries, including Iran. The intuition of such an equation is simple and not new: the central Bank can temporarily devalue the domestic currency at the expense of imposing additional inflation on the economy. The results confirm the exchange between inflation and the real exchange rate under the Phillips curve based on the real exchange rate. Conclusions and Suggestions If the standard Philips New Keynesian Curve (according to what was done in this article) can be expressed as an exchange between inflation and the real exchange rate for oil-exporting countries, including Iran, it will have a significant impact on economic policy. As a policy proposal, the central bank temporarily devalues the domestic currency, but must consider this will impose additional inflation on the economy.
پژوهشی
Seyed Ali Hoseini Ebrahimaba; khalil jahangiri; mahdi Ghaemi Asl; hasan heidari
Abstract
Introduction: Decision making in conditions of uncertainty is one of the important features of risk asset allocation optimization models. Interconnection in stock price fluctuations or other assets is introduced as a factor in transferring price fluctuations from one or more sectors to other sectors. ...
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Introduction: Decision making in conditions of uncertainty is one of the important features of risk asset allocation optimization models. Interconnection in stock price fluctuations or other assets is introduced as a factor in transferring price fluctuations from one or more sectors to other sectors. Since the main drawbacks of the Markowitz model are the need for a normal distribution of the return series and the impossibility of short-selling, the Bayesian DCC-GARCH model and the Huang & Litzenberger approach solve the problems of the Markowitz model, respectively. At the same time, the use of wavelet analysis makes it possible to present a suitable portfolio based on different frequency and scale domains during different sub-periods. Theoretical framework: According to Zhang, et al. (2018), the Markowitz mean-variance method is the most popular method for solving the optimal portfolio selection problem. But Trichilli, et al. (2020) point out that due to the high sensitivity of the Markowitz mean-variance process to small changes in inputs as well as the dependence of the process on past historical prices, it leads to a lack of application of the investor’s knowledge and experience in the capital market. Unfortunately, the Markowitz portfolio optimization model leads to the selection of a small number of superior assets. He suggests using the Bayesian approach to address the shortcomings of the Markowitz model. Another critique of previous models of modern portfolio theory is the assumption of a normal distribution for variance of portfolio. Hence, fat-tail asymmetric distributions such as the dynamic conditional variance heterogeneity (DCC-GARCH) approach are used in generalized Markowitz models that are closer to real-world data. But dynamic conditional heterogeneity models have limitations in asymmetric time series analysis. This led to the use of multivariate skew variance heterogeneity models such as Bayesian DCC-GARCH, which are more capable than MGARCH models in adopting the characteristics of financial time series in the process of estimating covariance and correlation matrices, used by Bala and Takimoto (2017), Fiorchi et al. (2014). Another problem with the Markowitz approach is that it assumes sales restrictions. This means that short-term sales are not possible. Therefore, Huang and Litzenberger (1988) introduced this generalized Markowitz model to remove this constraint in the model. In and Kim (2013) also consider the use of wavelet transform methods in Markowitz model to lead to more realistic results. Methodology: Rambaud, et al. (2009) argue that if an economy consists of a set of risky assets combined with a risk-free asset, then portfolios along the capital market line (CML) are superior than the efficient frontiers portfolios that contain only high-risk assets. Black (1972) imposed the possibility of short-selling (negative weight) to the basic Markowitz model by introducing mathematical relations. The period of this research is from 14/12/2008 to 16/06/2019 and according to the periods, before JCPOA, after JCPOA and the leave of the United States from JCPOA. The covariance matrix uses two different methods (unconditional and conditional derived from the Bayesian DCC-GARCH model) in the Huang & Litzenberger portfolio optimization model, in four different time scales based on the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) approach. the results are compared at the end to select the best portfolio from the two covariance matrices. Results & Discussion: By comparing the performance of the portfolios obtained from the unconditional and conditional covariance-variance matrices of the Bayesian DCC model, it is observed that in all subsections and wavelets, the efficiency of the portfolio of the Bayesian DCC model is higher than the unconditional model and the degree of efficiency varies in different subsectors. In fact, when all time-series have an abnormal distribution, the efficiency of asset portfolio derived from the variance-covariance matrix of the Bayesian conditional model is much higher than the unconditional model. The difference between the performance of asset portfolios derived from Bayesian unconditional and conditional models is less when there is a combination of normal and abnormal time series, and this necessitates the application of Bayesian models in financial markets, especially when all series are abnormal. Conclusions & Suggestions: The important result of the present study is to realize the multi-resolution nature of Huang and Litzenberger portfolio optimization theory in the Iranian capital market. The Estimation results indicate that the performance of portfolios in the medium-term and long-term scales (wavelets D3 and D4) is higher than the performance of these portfolios in the short-term scales (D1 and D2). Also, the present study clearly showed that in all subsectors, asset portfolios obtained by Bayesian distribution and by means of variance-covariance matrix extracted by Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) method have higher efficiency than other portfolios which are obtained from other statistical distributions. Also, since all asset portfolios obtained under the second part are more efficient than other sub-sectors, one of the important achievements of the present study is the positive effect of lifting economic sanctions on the Iranian capital market.
پژوهشی
mohammad sharif karimi; Azadeh Shahab
Abstract
Introduction Corruption is very important issue because it affects all elements of society, economic, political or cultural. Corruption also causes a decline in human capital and the loss of individuals' innate talents in society, leading society to distribute rents. Corruption exists in all democracies ...
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Introduction Corruption is very important issue because it affects all elements of society, economic, political or cultural. Corruption also causes a decline in human capital and the loss of individuals' innate talents in society, leading society to distribute rents. Corruption exists in all democracies and democracies, but the fight against it is more prominent in democracies. The nature of the MENA countries is oil-producing countries the economy relies on oil revenues, which are often run by relatively large and inefficient governments. In these societies, the distribution of rent and power to maintain power is almost common. Wherever there is talk of power and authority, there is also the phenomenon of corruption. The most influential and popular variable for corrupt transactions is cash. On the other hand, developing countries, including the countries of MENA, have high liquidity and inflation, both of which strengthen each other. According to the quantity theory of money, the volume of money in society should be equal to the importance of goods and services in simple terms. When this alliance is not established, the greatest pressure is on the people; it becomes. If not entering the channel of GDP, high liquidity and inflation will reduce the welfare and dissatisfaction of people in society. Given the importance of these two variables to achieve economic and political stability and also to achieve the goal of sustainable development this study seeks to answer the question: Is the amount of liquidity is affected on the corruption in selected countries in the MENA region during the period 2005-2018? Theoretical framework Efforts to achieve sustainable development in the form of good governance indicators and development goals by the World Bank and the United Nations have been main duty by developing countries in recent years. One of the important variables of these goals is the corruption control index. Corruption has a negative consequences at the economic, political, and human and social levels of societies. Through the harm it creates, it has become one of the main obstacles to development. The growth of liquidity, depending on the degree of corruption control in society, can have two opposite effects on the economy. On the other hand, in an economy with a low degree of corruption, liquidity is considered one of the indicators of financial development and it increases economic growth, on the other hand, in an economy with a high degree of corruption, the balance of speculative funds increases and reduces economic growth as well. Methodology Model variables and data has been extracted from the World Bank website and covers the period 2005-2018 for selected MENA countries which are including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, #United Arab Emirates and Turkey. This paper uses an alternative measure of corruption which is the Control of Corruption Index (CC) published by the World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators. Other data and variables such as: liquidity, GDP per capita, government size, economic openness, inflation and internet Extracted from the World Bank website and the Press Freedom Index extracted from the annual reports of the Freedom House. The functional form of the panel data model is as follows: Corruption it= αi+ ρ Corruptioni,t-1+ β1 BMit+ β2 GDp < sub>it+ β3 GOVit+ β4 OPENNESSit + β5 INFLATIONit + β6 PRESSit + β7 INTERNETit +εit To estimate the model we have applied the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. Results & Discussion According to the results of the model estimate, it can be seen that the rate of corruption in the previous year and also the current liquidity on the corruption of the countries of MENA region is statistically positive and significant and a one percent increase in corruption in the previous period led to increase 0.56 percent corruption and one percent increase in liquidity of the current period increases the rate of corruption of the current period by 0.001 percent. It can be said that in the selected countries of MENA during the period 2005-2018, the corruption variable of the previous period has a greater impact on the level of corruption in these countries than the current liquidity variable. The most influential variable on corruption in the countries of the MENA region in both methods is GDP per capita. So that one percent increase in GDP per capita reduces the rate of corruption by 2.47 percent. Among the controls variables the effect of government size, openness, freedom of the press and the Internet on corruption in the MENA countries during 2005-2018 is negligible and statistically significant, while the effect of inflation on corruption is statistically insignificant. Conclusions & Suggestions In this paper, we examine whether liquidity affects the level of corruption in a MENA countries? According to the results the effect of the past level of corruption and the current liquidity on the corruption of the countries of the MENA region are statistically positive and significant. The existence of corruption in the country in previous years leads to the institutionalization of corrupt practices in the country; High liquidity also facilitates money laundering and corrupt transactions. In fact, the ease with which transactions can be made will strengthen corrupt groups and their actions over the years. To reduce the existing liquidity in society and subsequently try to reduce corruption in the countries of the MENA region, the following solutions are proposed: Apply high opportunity cost to use less transactions in the traditional way with high liquidity, such as accruing interest on current accounts and electronic payment cards to the extent that new payment tools are cost-effective for consumers. Apply discounts on financial transactions above a specific limit per day or month for online purchases or e-card purchases. Use new payment methods for labour services. Also we suggest that governments should evolve laws to prohibit cash transactions beyond a threshold level.
پژوهشی
Sajjad faraji dizaji; Hossein Sadeghi; Zahra Lotfi
Abstract
Introduction The central bank, as the highest monetary authority in the country, needs independence to achieve its goals. Central bank independence reflects the ability and willingness to pursue an independent monetary policy. The main goal of the central bank is to control sustainable inflation. If ...
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Introduction The central bank, as the highest monetary authority in the country, needs independence to achieve its goals. Central bank independence reflects the ability and willingness to pursue an independent monetary policy. The main goal of the central bank is to control sustainable inflation. If the goal of a country is to reduce inflation without harming economic growth, there is no choice but to establish an independent central bank, only an independent central bank that will be able to reduce the budget deficit and inflation tax. Given the role of the Central Bank, this article intends to examine the effect of rent and political development on the independence of the Central Bank. Theoretical frame work The central bank, as an influential institution in monetary policy, needs independence to achieve its goals. Any obstacle that takes the money supply out of the central bank's control has called into question its independence. The main element of this independence is the credit limit that the bank imposes on the government. Therefore, if the central bank has enough independence, it will be able to prevent the government from borrowing freely. The most important reason the government borrows from the central bank is the budget deficit. This is especially true in oil-exporting countries, which often base their budget revenues on oil export. As a result, these governments resort to borrowing from the central bank to compensate for their budget deficit, and governments continue to inflate, willingly or unwillingly, by providing a deficit of central bank resources. In the meantime, the existence of strong and efficient political institutions makes it impossible for the government to question the independence of the central bank by pressuring the central bank in pursuit of its short-term and temporary goals, and to destabilize the country's economic future. In oil economies, governments have no incentive to impose higher taxes on the back of huge oil revenues, so they seek to achieve their short-term goals by resorting to the above methods and resorting to inflation taxes. What makes the difference between resource-rich countries is the quality of political institutions. If a public bureaucracy is reliable and corruption is low in a country, natural resources are not only not an obstacle to economic growth but also contribute to the growth of the economy. Methodology Therefore, this study examines the effect of natural resource rents, political development and their interactive effect on central bank independence in oil exporting countries. For this purpose, we use the panel data method for annual data related to 25 countries benefiting from oil rents from 2000 to 2012. In addition to examining the effect of oil rents and political development and the simultaneous effect of these two variables on central bank independence, the effects of other rents, including gas rents, forest rents, and total natural resource rents, have also been examined .Also the impact of liquidity, government spending, transparency and development has also been addressed. Results & Discussion The results show that the entry of oil rents into the economy not only does not increase the independence of the central bank but also the government's access to an easy and carefree source of income leads to autonomy. The more the government relies on oil rents, the more it prevents the central bank from gaining independence and hindering the free and rational operation of this institution, and the more the government does not comply with the central bank's monetary policies in order to advance economic goals. But there is a positive relationship between central bank independence and improving the quality of political institutions. Also, the simultaneous effect of oil rents and development will diminish the effect of political institutions, and the quality of political institutions will be weakened due to oil dependence, and the indicators of autocracy will become more prominent, which will reduce the independence of the central bank. In addition, we saw a significant inverse relationship between liquidity, government spending and GDP on central bank independence, but increasing transparency, with a positive impact on central bank independence, improves central bank independence. In this regard, the impact of other rents on the independence of the central bank has been studied. The results of this study show that gas and forest rents do not have a significant effect on central bank independence, but the effect of total rents on central bank independence is the similar of oil rents. It can be argued that since the selected countries are mostly oil exporting countries and the predominant rent in these countries is oil rent and the basis of government economic programs in these countries is oil based, the impact of this rent is more than other rents. Conclusions & Suggestions According to the results of the study, the increase in rent income reduces the independence of the central bank. For this reason, it is suggested to increase the independence of the central bank to prevent the entry of any rent, especially oil rent, which is the most effective type of rent in oil countries. The overflow of this revenue to the government budget has caused the government to rely on it and become independent of other institutions and make autonomous decisions.The first step is to take the right approach to budgeting and increase the central bank's authority to adopt monetary policy. Also, increasing the quality of institutions increases the independence of the central bank. Therefore, it is suggested that effective and fruitful steps be taken to improve the quality of institutions, so that we can see better and more principled performance of the central bank and more independence of this institution Let our decisions be against the government.Also, increasing the quality of institutions increases the independence of the central bank. Therefore, it is suggested that effective and fruitful steps be taken to improve the quality of institutions,so that we can see better and more principled performance of the central bank and more independence of this institution.
پژوهشی
Abdorreza Asadi; Mohammad Ali Abri
Abstract
These days, the performance of banks in optimal collecting and allocating the resources, can boost production, create jobs, and increase economic growth. An efficient banking system with the right monetary policy, by controlling liquidity and inflation and directing resources to productive economic activities, ...
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These days, the performance of banks in optimal collecting and allocating the resources, can boost production, create jobs, and increase economic growth. An efficient banking system with the right monetary policy, by controlling liquidity and inflation and directing resources to productive economic activities, plays an important role in economic development. However, the performance of banks themselves is affected by various political, economic, managerial and social factors, and the study of these factors has been one of the topics of interest to researchers. On the other hand, Banks operate in a unique environment of public oversight and a set of banking rules and regulations. The corporate governance framework in banks is more complex than in other companies. Corporate governance mechanisms reduce agency problems in companies and the quality of these mechanisms is relative and varies from company to company and can affect different aspects of performance. In this study, the relationship between ownership structure and corporate governance mechanism of banks with their financial performance is investigated using structural equation modeling. Theoretical frame work From the perspective of corporate governance, shareholders can align the interests of managers with their own interests by using corporate governance mechanisms. One of the most important corporate governance mechanisms is the ownership of managers in the bank. Glasman and Rhodes (1980) compared financial institutions run by their owners with institutions that were separate from management. They showed that the profitability of institutions whose owners are involved in management is higher. In their supervisory role, the members of the board of directors are responsible for supervising and encouraging the managers to act in accordance with the interests of the shareholders. In fact, corporate governance can be considered as including legal, cultural and institutional arrangements that determine the direction of movement and activity of companies. The components and mechanisms of this governance include shareholders and their ownership structure, board members and their composition, and the management of the company, which is led by the CEO, and other stakeholders that can influence the movement of the company. As one of the external mechanisms of corporate governance, institutional investors play an important role in eliminating information asymmetry and reducing agency costs. Institutional investors openly monitor the company by gathering information and pricing management decisions implicitly and by managing the company's operations. Corporate governance can play an important role in improving corporate performance and there is a close relationship between the quality of corporate governance and corporate financial performance in capital markets. Methodology The present study is an applied research in terms of objective, because its results can be used by investors, managers, shareholders and capital market analysts, as well as banks listed on the stock exchange. In terms of method of implementation, this research is considered as a descriptive-correlational type and due to the fact that its variables have occurred in the past, it is known the causal-post-event research. In this study, the effect of banks’ ownership structure and corporate governance components on the performance was studied using data from 18 listed banks in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2011-2017. The data required to calculate the research variables were collected from the audited financial statements of the accepted banks and through the information databases of the Tehran Stock Exchange as well as the new management software. In order to analyze the data and test the research hypotheses, the structural equation modeling method has been used. Results & Discussion The results showed that the direct effect of ownership structure on corporate governance is insignificant and in fact the mechanism of corporate governance is not affected by ownership structure. Therefore, the first hypothesis of the study failed to confirm. Also, the ownership structure has a significant and inverse effect on financial performance. This means that by increasing the concentration of ownership at the disposal of a limited number of shareholders as well as the ratio of institutional and state ownership, the financial performance of banks decreases significantly and vice versa. Therefore, the second hypothesis of the research was confirmed. On the other hand, the effect of corporate governance on financial performance is also positive and significant, which shows that improving the corporate governance mechanism can significantly improve the financial performance of banks, so the third hypothesis of the study was confirmed as well. The results also showed that the indirect effect of ownership structure through corporate governance on the financial performance of banks is significant and the fourth hypothesis also was confirmed. Conclusions & Suggestions The findings showed that the dimensions of corporate governance have a significant positive effect on the financial performance of banks and show that improving the corporate governance mechanism can significantly improve the financial performance of banks. Finally, the results showed that the corporate governance can reduce the severity of the negative effect of the dimensions of the ownership structure on the financial performance of banks. The findings indicate that the shareholding of government-affiliated institutions and companies and financial institutions, especially with a majority stake, causes these shareholders to pursue their own interests instead of the total interests of shareholders and the value of the company (bank), resulting to weaken the financial performance. Therefore, corporate governance mechanisms and proper governance system can increase the financial performance of banks. Because one of the possible reasons for the above conclusion is the participation of executive and non-executive members of the Board of Directors in the activities and as a result of their supervisory role in banking operations. There is also evidence that the large size of the board can help CEOs through consulting can play an important role in corporate performance. According to the obtained results, some suggestions can be made as follows. Capital market policymakers and institutional shareholders should be aware that the presence of non-executive members on the board of directors of companies cannot reduce the agency problems and help the company perform better, so try to use the presence of more executive members. It is also suggested that the members of the board of directors of companies and banks, shareholders and auditors and auditing firms become more familiar with issues related to the corporate governance system so that they can properly play a role in the corporate governance system and thus influence Increase the value of companies.
پژوهشی
soudeh sabahi; Farimah Mokhatab Rafiei; MohammadAli Rastegar
Abstract
Introduction At the core of any investment lies the return on investment. To gain a favorable return, an investor should take investment-related risks. The interaction between risk and return can lead to decisions on asset allocation. A key strategy in investment discussions is diversification ...
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Introduction At the core of any investment lies the return on investment. To gain a favorable return, an investor should take investment-related risks. The interaction between risk and return can lead to decisions on asset allocation. A key strategy in investment discussions is diversification in investment portfolio. Investment strategy is undetermined in different assets such as security, gold, currency and cryptocurrency. Despite the temporary recession and success of certain assets, it is hard to prioritize investment among assets (in terms of risk and return) to ensure that the investor makes the highest profit at the lowest risk. Thus, the present research used the Mean-CVaR model along with the Extreme value theory (EVT) based on Copula’s theory to estimate the correlations among time series. It used the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) estimation method to measure the joint distribution of assets regardless of the normality assumption of data, collinearity, priorities and weights of investment in assets as optimal values. Theoretical Framework Diversification of conventional investment portfolio which only involves cash and security with alternative assets such as goods, currency and estate helps to decrease the correlation of assets and increase its resistance to severe changes in stock market. It, thus, helps to improve the performance of investment portfolio (Fischer & Lind-Braucher, 2010). Moreover, due to the low correlation between conventional assets and cryptocurrency and its high-efficiency, cryptocurrency is a good instrument to be combined with diverse investment portfolios and can increase the Sharpe ratio (Chuen et al., 2017). One assumption of the distribution of financial return time series is the normality of data. However, in actuality, many financial return time series are not normal. When the normality assumption is violated, Value at Risk (VaR) is a proper measure. Risk exposure value is not an integrated risk measurement and due to the lack of sub-aggregation property, may be inefficient in optimizing investment portfolio. Thus, researches introduced Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as an integrated measure and an alternative for VaR. Methodology As the return on financial assets is marked by a fat tail and is not marked by a normal distribution of data, to better predict the distribution of series, EVT was used. Moreover, Copula’s theory was adopted and the structure of correlations among series as time-varying was modelled via the dynamic conditional correlation estimation and the joint distribution of assets was analyzed regardless of data normality and collinearity. Then, the Mean-CVaR model was used to estimate the risk exposure value and set the investment priorities and weights among assets in Tehran Stock Exchange, Gold Coin, USD and Bitcoin as optimized values. In this research, for an optimal allocation of investment among four above assets in daily return, Tehran Stock Exchange index (TEPIX) was used. The daily return on investment in Gold Coin (the old version) was estimated in Rials. That of USD was estimated in Rials in Tehran free market. Finally, the daily return on investment in Bitcoin was estimated in Rials between October 2014 and April 2018. Results & Discussion A negative correlation was estimated via DCC-Copula between certain assets, which shows that when a particular asset gains higher return on investment (than the mean value), the other asset does not follow the same trend. Thus, investors are capable of diversifying their portfolio accordingly. Prediction of return on assets showed that the highest expected daily return on investment belonged, respectively, to Bitcoin, Gold Coin, Dollar and Tehran Stock Exchange. Moreover, as the optimized weights showed for zero CVaR, due to the low variance, the greatest investment weight was investment in Tehran Stock Exchange. The higher the investor’s risk-taking, the greater the investment weight of Gold Coin and Bitcoin. Conclusions & Suggestions Considering the investor’s risk-taking level, if s/he tolerates the least risks, s/he is suggested to make the most investment in securities. An increase in the minimum expected return on investment is followed by an increase in the investment share of Gold Coin and Bitcoin. Thus highly risk-taking investors are suggested to invest in Bitcoin and low risk-taking counterparts are suggested to invest in Gold Con. Considering the conditional Sharp (C-Sharp) ratio optimal portfolio indicated a better performance of various portfolios than any other asset, and the best performance of the portfolio includes Gold Coin with more than 70% and Dollars and Bitcoins with an equal weight. Furthermore, according to the C-Sharp ratio in the optimal portfolio, the minimum weight of Gold Coin is 60% and the maximum share of Dollar and Bitcoin is 20%.
