پژوهشی
nazar dahmardeh; Marzieh Esfandiari; zohreh eskandaripour
Abstract
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected ...
Read More
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected that the insurance industry will be able to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and distribution of income, taking into account the function of risk distribution and its compensation, as well as its role in financial development. To test this hypothesis, here has used of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach during the period 1975-2016.
The results showed that the development of the insurance industry could provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution in the short run. But in the long run, it will only lead to economic growth. However, in the long run, it could be reliant on human and physical capital for simultaneous access to economic growth and the distribution of income. Also, based on the error correction model, 88.2% and 68.1% of the non-equilibrium related to the non-oil per capita gross domestic product and Gini coefficient are adjusted in each period, respectively.
Theoretical framework
In The second half of the 20th century onwards, especially since the 1970s, following widening the income gap between the poor and the rich as well as the development in public awareness, it has been emphasized on increasing the quality of life (Mehregan & Salarian, 2008:13). In general, classical and neoclassical economists believe that an uneven distribution of income can have a positive effect on the growth process, while others such as Mirdal and Sen believe that economic growth entails an improvement in income distribution and in fact considers the reduction of inequality necessary (Khodadad Kashi & Heidari, 2008: 153). However, if economic growth and improvement in income distribution are considered two essential components of economic development, there are three strategies for development (Sharifzadegan, 2007: 23-24):
A) Growth then Redistribution (GTR): Accordingly, with economic growth and the creation of vast economic capacities and enlarging the size of the economy, the conditions for employment is automatically provided for all social and income groups, thereby achieving a balanced income distribution.
B) Redilribution then Growth (RTG): In this strategy, comprehensive resources are mainly spent on proper distribution of income, and investment on economic growth and attention to it comes at a lower level, and practically undermines the social capacity of the community. Many experiences and studies show that in the long run, this policy will not achieve a balanced distribution of income or economic growth.
C) Growth with Redistribution (GWR): This strategy emphasizes that income redistribution cannot work without relying on a booming economy. In this strategy, executive policies should be able to work both for economic growth and for income distribution. The development of the insurance industry with the aim of fostering economic growth and improving income distribution can also be considered as one of the policies of this strategy.
Methodology
In this section, the following two econometric models are considered to examine the effects of the development of the insurance industry on economic growth and income distribution:
(1)
(2)
In the empirical studies, the variable level of income is present in the income distribution model, but the present study assumes that the level of income of individuals affected by physical wealth (physical capital or CAPL) and human wealth and capital (skill, expertise, and education level or HCAP). Accordingly, the LHCAP and LCAPL variables are used in the income distribution model instead of the natural logarithm of the income level. The research models for the period 1975-2016 will be estimated using the ARDL method.
Result and discussion
Because dynamic short-run interactions between variables are not considered in OLS method, the use of this method in estimating the long-run relationship does not necessarily yield unbiased estimation. Therefore, it seems reasonable that in such cases those models be considered that have short-term dynamics and thus make the model coefficients more accurately estimated. The ARDL method is a dynamic model that allows to estimate the long-run coefficients of the model with appropriate accuracy in addition to the cointegration test between variables (Nofersti, 2008). The main advantage of using the ARDL method is that regardless of whether the research variables have unit root in levels or some become stationary by one time differentiation, a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables can be obtained.
Conclusion
Achieving high economic growth coupled with improved income distribution has always been a major concern for policymakers in developing countries. In this regard, based on their historical experiences and those of other countries as well as the theoretical and empirical studies, countries prefer the strategy of Growth with Redistribution over GTR strategy or vice versa. On the other hand, insurance is expected to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution, given its functional role in risk distribution and compensation as well as its role in financial development. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested for the Iranian economy over the period 1975-2016 using the ARDL method.
The results of estimating income distribution model as ARDL (1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1) showed that insurance penetration factor variables had a negative effect on Gini coefficient immediately and with a one-year lag. Oil revenues also have an impact on the Gini coefficient similar to that of the insurance industry, with its effect initially positive and negative with a one-year lag. But human capital with a two- and three-year lag and physical capital with a three-year lag have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient. Also, the results of estimation of economic growth model as ARDL (2,1,2,2,0) showed that development of insurance industry has positive and immediate effect on economic growth. The variables of human and physical capital have a positive significant lagged and non-lagged effect, and business openness variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth after one-year lag.
پژوهشی
mahdi salehi; mohammad reza abbas zadeh; mostafa zangiabadi; elahe khodamoradi
Abstract
Introduction
As the largest amount of capital around the world is traded through stock markets, and the national economy is heavily influenced by these markets performance, the increase in listed company’s investment volume affects the development and improvement of company performance and so, it ...
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Introduction
As the largest amount of capital around the world is traded through stock markets, and the national economy is heavily influenced by these markets performance, the increase in listed company’s investment volume affects the development and improvement of company performance and so, it will attract more capital towards the capital market and improve the economic situation. On the other hand, given the important role of foreign direct investment (the index of financial liberalization) in the economy of each country, most countries try to attract this capital. In fact, the global market for attracting these funds is highly competitive. This competition is particularly high among developing countries due to the need for rapid access to development and a lack of funds. Such countries seek to attract different types of capital, and they make various arrangements to attract these types of funds.
Theoretical framework
The liberalization of capital flows drives capital flows from high-capital to low-capital economies. These capital flows should complete domestic savings in low-capitalization countries and lead to increased investment in these countries. Capital flows can improve technology. There are indirect ways through which financial liberalization can improve the economic growth of countries. Financial liberalization, with transferring capital between countries, can help improve investment by increasing financial sector development. According to existing theories about the effect of financial liberalization on consumption, since consumers are often risk averse, they use financial markets to reduce investment risk, which will increase the likelihood of investing in companies accepted in financial markets. Therefore, the study of macroeconomic factors facilitating the investment process in listed companies at the stock exchange will be an issue.
Methodology
In this study, the impact of financial liberalization on the investment rate of listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Over the Counter Market was evaluated and due to the lack of consensus among previous researches on how to measure the concept of financial liberalization, In this study, three measures such as potential financial liberalization (Heritage index), financial liberalization index (Reverse of difference between US real interest rate and Iranian real interest rate) and interest rate control (interest rate changes) were used to measure financial liberalization and its effect on the amount of corporate investment (net amount of operational activity investment class in the audited annual cash flow statement disclosed in each company) in the period 2002-2015 in companies listed at Stock Exchange using the structural equation approach, was measured.
Results & Discussion
The results indicate a significant positive relationship between financial liberalization and investment. In other words, with the liberalization of finance and the facilitation of foreign capital inflows, the reduction of capital costs and financing, companies have more resources to develop and complete their own operational projects and face easier conditions to Access these resources. Therefore, the company's management investing interest will increase and use cheaper resources than before liberalization. The results of this study are consistent with the findings of the study: Henry (2000); Hermes et al., (2005); Forbes & Warnock (2012) and Jadiyappa et al., (2016) are consistent.The results also show that the direct relationship between the interest rate changes and the financial liberalization index (Reverse of difference between US real interest rate and Iranian real interest rate) with the investment rate is negative.
Conclusions & Suggestions
The results also show that the direct relationship between the interest rate changes and the financial liberalization index (Reverse of difference between US real interest rate and Iranian real interest rate) with the investment rate is negative. In other words, there is a trade-off between interest rate and private equity investment, Therefore, the reduction of interest rate increases investment, so, financial sector policies that affect the long-term interest rate as well as the growth and development of money markets improve the productivity of the capitalized. increase savings and increase the present value of the profitability of investment projects. Therefore, it is suggested that in future research, in addition to those factors mentioned in the present study, the factors affecting financial liberalization will be identified in order to formulate the final model of financial liberalization measurement.
پژوهشی
Mitra Seyedzadeh; Mohamad Hosein Mahdavi adeli; mehdi behname; Taghi Ebrahimi salari
Abstract
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected ...
Read More
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected that the insurance industry will be able to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and distribution of income, taking into account the function of risk distribution and its compensation, as well as its role in financial development. To test this hypothesis, here has used of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach during the period 1975-2016.
The results showed that the development of the insurance industry could provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution in the short run. But in the long run, it will only lead to economic growth. However, in the long run, it could be reliant on human and physical capital for simultaneous access to economic growth and the distribution of income. Also, based on the error correction model, 88.2% and 68.1% of the non-equilibrium related to the non-oil per capita gross domestic product and Gini coefficient are adjusted in each period, respectively.
Theoretical framework
In The second half of the 20th century onwards, especially since the 1970s, following widening the income gap between the poor and the rich as well as the development in public awareness, it has been emphasized on increasing the quality of life (Mehregan & Salarian, 2008:13). In general, classical and neoclassical economists believe that an uneven distribution of income can have a positive effect on the growth process, while others such as Mirdal and Sen believe that economic growth entails an improvement in income distribution and in fact considers the reduction of inequality necessary (Khodadad Kashi & Heidari, 2008: 153). However, if economic growth and improvement in income distribution are considered two essential components of economic development, there are three strategies for development (Sharifzadegan, 2007: 23-24):
A) Growth then Redistribution (GTR): Accordingly, with economic growth and the creation of vast economic capacities and enlarging the size of the economy, the conditions for employment is automatically provided for all social and income groups, thereby achieving a balanced income distribution.
B) Redilribution then Growth (RTG): In this strategy, comprehensive resources are mainly spent on proper distribution of income, and investment on economic growth and attention to it comes at a lower level, and practically undermines the social capacity of the community. Many experiences and studies show that in the long run, this policy will not achieve a balanced distribution of income or economic growth.
C) Growth with Redistribution (GWR): This strategy emphasizes that income redistribution cannot work without relying on a booming economy. In this strategy, executive policies should be able to work both for economic growth and for income distribution. The development of the insurance industry with the aim of fostering economic growth and improving income distribution can also be considered as one of the policies of this strategy.
Methodology
In this section, the following two econometric models are considered to examine the effects of the development of the insurance industry on economic growth and income distribution:
(1)
(2)
In the empirical studies, the variable level of income is present in the income distribution model, but the present study assumes that the level of income of individuals affected by physical wealth (physical capital or CAPL) and human wealth and capital (skill, expertise, and education level or HCAP). Accordingly, the LHCAP and LCAPL variables are used in the income distribution model instead of the natural logarithm of the income level. The research models for the period 1975-2016 will be estimated using the ARDL method.
Result and discussion
Because dynamic short-run interactions between variables are not considered in OLS method, the use of this method in estimating the long-run relationship does not necessarily yield unbiased estimation. Therefore, it seems reasonable that in such cases those models be considered that have short-term dynamics and thus make the model coefficients more accurately estimated. The ARDL method is a dynamic model that allows to estimate the long-run coefficients of the model with appropriate accuracy in addition to the cointegration test between variables (Nofersti, 2008). The main advantage of using the ARDL method is that regardless of whether the research variables have unit root in levels or some become stationary by one time differentiation, a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables can be obtained.
Conclusion
Achieving high economic growth coupled with improved income distribution has always been a major concern for policymakers in developing countries. In this regard, based on their historical experiences and those of other countries as well as the theoretical and empirical studies, countries prefer the strategy of Growth with Redistribution over GTR strategy or vice versa. On the other hand, insurance is expected to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution, given its functional role in risk distribution and compensation as well as its role in financial development. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested for the Iranian economy over the period 1975-2016 using the ARDL method.
The results of estimating income distribution model as ARDL (1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1) showed that insurance penetration factor variables had a negative effect on Gini coefficient immediately and with a one-year lag. Oil revenues also have an impact on the Gini coefficient similar to that of the insurance industry, with its effect initially positive and negative with a one-year lag. But human capital with a two- and three-year lag and physical capital with a three-year lag have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient. Also, the results of estimation of economic growth model as ARDL (2,1,2,2,0) showed that development of insurance industry has positive and immediate effect on economic growth. The variables of human and physical capital have a positive significant lagged and non-lagged effect, and business openness variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth after one-year lag.
پژوهشی
sadegh bafandeh imandoust; m lashkary; Malihe YaqubZadeh
Abstract
Introduction
Capital market is a link between monetary market and financial market. One of the causes of backwardness of the country in economic growth and development discussion, is the weakness and immortality of the capital market, and economic instability, sensitive capital market, lack of financial ...
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Introduction
Capital market is a link between monetary market and financial market. One of the causes of backwardness of the country in economic growth and development discussion, is the weakness and immortality of the capital market, and economic instability, sensitive capital market, lack of financial knowledge and investor skill, constitute a bitter humor which will reveal a true view of the current market situation. An example of the other factors affecting economic growth is increased participation of specialized workforce. Acquiring knowledge and skill, specifically deep work, will be achieved by continuous and concentrated study together with gaining experience. Given high rate of unemployment in the country, especially, in the educated class who is not able to identify and create logic relationship between invisible circles of education, skill and specialty, and knowing the fact that in the information age, and in view of hard conditions of employment, there is no place for civil servant thinking, to get rid of this vortex of thought and to breed entrepreneurship and investment thinking, with the aim of motivating this class of the society, in this study, one of the comprehensive and successful scientific methods derived from two American and Japanese strategies with an applied aspect and in decision-making discussion, portfolio selection and management is efficient in the capital market, is presented and studied.
Theoretical frame work
Thinking that the audience of this method is the public with any amount of capital, O'Neill (inventor of CAN SLIM strategy); and thinking that this system is efficient in different intervals, Guichi Husuda (Ichimoku designer), have designed it. This comprehensive system will be problematic when it is used as an analytical device by those investors who lack the knowledge and skill required for correct analysis.
Given the fact that O'Neill strategy like Warren Buffett (capital market prodigy), focuses on one or two preferred companies in a long-term period (focused investment), and knowing that fundamental way has a crucial role in Buffet strategy and O'Neill strategy, thought O'Neill thinking most tends to have a growth and quality approach, and in Buffet strategy, value and quality method is most observed, considering the thinking of these two scholars, the dependent variable is PEG.
This ratio is among the main indices of investment of GARP (growth at reasonable price). This investment method is between value method and growth method (Warren Buffett and O'Neill thinking). In Garp's method, investor searches for the stock whose market value is slightly less than intrinsic value, as well as has a stable and sustainable growth potential. In fact, in this method, investor searches for the stock with both its price and future growth is in a more balanced state than value and growth methods.
Methodology
In Section 1 of the study, the relationship between CAN SLIM criteria and the ratio of price to earnings to growth rates (PEG) is studied.
In this part, the relationship between this ratio as a fundamental factor that in its structure dividend growth rate is considered as an essential factor, and CAN SLIM strategy as a combination of fundamental model (with the idea of growth and qualitative investment) and technical model, is evaluated. The case study includes all base materials production industries (chemicals, basic metals, metal minerals) in Tehran Stock Exchange and OTC during 2013-2017, which is based on multivariable regression analysis-based correlation based on panel and cross-sectional data. Explanatory variables of this study include seasonal earnings growth, mean five-year earnings growth, return on equity ratio, return on asset ratio, new high price, percentage of floating stock, Beta coefficient, number of legal purchase days (min 70%).
Eviews version 9 software was used to test the hypotheses.
In Section 2 of this study, top-performing stock is selected based on CAN SLIM strategy and then, reasonable time for inclusion and exclusion of such stock is determined based on Ichimoku Clouds transaction system (Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Crossover Strategy). Finally, using Pearson coefficient, the relationship between stock price at the time of determination (inclusion and exclusion) and return on stock is determined.
As the purpose of investment is to earn profit, in this part seasonal and annual return on the selected stock are analyzed and evaluated with seasonal and annual return on stock of 3 well-known indices of the market (cap-weighted index, weighted price index, and index of 50 active companies).
Results & Discussion
According to the results of hypothesis testing in Section I of this study, the hypotheses 1 and 3 are confirmed.
Hypothesis 1 of this study indicates that:
There is a direct relationship between the growth of seasonal EPS more than 20% and PEG ratio.
Given the fact that value of F statistic and probability value for the overall model is 104.239 and 0.0000, respectively, meaning that the model is significant overall (because the probability value of this statistic is less that significant level 0.05), the determination coefficient is 0.405. Therefore, this hypothesis is confirmed.
Hypothesis 3 of this study indicates that:
There is a direct relationship between the efficiency of management; and new high price and PEG ratio.
In this hypothesis, the increased return on assets is used to evaluate efficiency of management in the operational section.
Given the fact that value of F statistic and probability value for the overall model is 3.327 and 0.046, respectively, meaning that the model is significant overall (because the probability value of this statistic is less that significant level 0.05), the determination coefficient is 0.152. Therefore, this hypothesis is confirmed.
In Section 2 of this study, Correlation coefficient -0.99, indicating that there is a complete and reverse relationship between stock price in the time of inclusion and return on stock. Finally, seasonal and annual return on the selected stock are analyzed and evaluated with seasonal and annual return on stock of 3 well-known indices of the market. The result indicates that return on the selected stocks, according to CAN SLIM strategy, is significantly more superior than return on stock of the three indices.
Given the results from this applied study, it sounds that as capital market is raging in Iran especially the stock market, if the investment process is based on fully scientific and empirically validated models, by avoiding emotional behaviors and managing time and setting the appropriate loss limit, a remarkable long-term return will be achieved.
Conclusions & Suggestions
In Section 1 of this study, the relationship between CAN SLIM criteria and the ratio of price to earnings to growth rates (PEG) is studied. the results of the test represent a direct significant relationship (5% level) between seasonal earnings growth; increase return on asset; and new high price and PEG ratio.
Considering the practical result of Section 2 of this study, O'Neill thinking, that is, selection of only one stock and design of CANSLIM model which results in section of leading stocks, is met. In the discussion of return on selected stocks, that is, a big return more than that of the stock market, comparing the seasonal and annual return of top stocks (Zagros Petrochemical) with the seasonal and annual return of 3 well-known stock market indices, this hypothesis is confirmed as well.
Based on the result of Ichimoku cloud analysis, it is found that within a year (1396 corresponding to March 21, 2017 to March 20, 2018), Zagros shares have not issued a strong output signal. So, O'Neill time thinking indicating a long-term investment, is met according to this study.
To promote the capital market, under the Principle 44, one of the strategies for structural modifications in the capital market which the Government can use in its executive policies plan, is to perform the policy of privatization with the aim of increasing efficiency and productivity of the firms in microeconomic level and to accelerate economic growth through decreasing financial and managerial load of the Government in macroeconomic level. In addition, performing the monetary policies through macroeconomic variables (bank interest rate, exchange rate, money supply etc.) as the variables affecting total stock index, capital mobility and the effect of releasing of the financial market on better performance of the capital market are examples of the other executive solutions of the Government towards promotion of capital market level.
The first step a beginner investor should take for entering capital markets is to correctly know him/herself and capital market (financial and behavioral). In this course, training; planning; relying on his/her lessons; paying attention to the news and avoiding rents and rumors and its margins, and finally, continuous and concentrated movement in this respect, will create a healthy atmosphere and better tomorrow for the capital market and will be the basis for one's success.
پژوهشی
Noor Olah Salehi Asfeji; Yaser Balaghi Inaloo
Abstract
Sidrauski's (1967) model of money in the utility function in the framework of a neoclassical growth model, has analyzed the role of money in the economy. His conclusions suggest that money is super-neutral in the steady state. The basic research problem is generalized Sidrauski's model according ...
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Sidrauski's (1967) model of money in the utility function in the framework of a neoclassical growth model, has analyzed the role of money in the economy. His conclusions suggest that money is super-neutral in the steady state. The basic research problem is generalized Sidrauski's model according to Reis (2007). Then, using optimal control approach, analysis the non-neutrality of monetary policy effects through nominal interest rate in the generalized Sidrauski's model. The results of calibration and sensitivity analysis of macroeconomic variables in Iranian economy indicate that as long as demand for real money balances elastic regard to nominal interest rate in non-separation utility function, monetary policy is not neutral in steady state. Therefore, a monetary policy that leads to a 3.6% decline in nominal interest rate growth, causing an increase in real money balances from 9.82 to 10.63. Finally, increased levels of capital per capita, output per capita and consumption per capita from 8.46, 2.90 and 2.38 to 9.42, 3.07 and 2.88. In addition, simulated results during the (1434-1344) in Iranian economy indicate that monetary policy, which leads to lower nominal rates, has increased the level of capital, production and consumption per capita continually.
Introduction
Although in macroeconomic literature related to rational expectations, where there is no monetary illusion and markets are settled, monetary policy has no real effect on the economy (Begg, 1980, Sidrauski, 1967, Lucas, 1972); but how the interaction between the real sector and Money is one of the questions that different economic schools have answered differently. In this context, various hypotheses have been put forward about the relationship between the real sector and the monetary sector of the economy: one hypothesis indicates that money is neutral in the long run. Other hypotheses suggest that money is super-neutral in the long run, but accepting or rejecting any of the above hypotheses affects the role of monetary policy in the economy.
In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of monetary policy through nominal interest rates on the generalized Sidrasky model in the Iranian economy using the optimal control approach. The relevant analysis was first performed by calibrating and analyzing the sensitivity of macro variables in the steady state. Finally, the simulation of the macro-variable path is done.
Theoretical frame work
In the basic Sidrauski model (1967), as an extended model of the Ramsey model (1928), money is also entered for the first time along with consumption in the utility function. In this model, it is assumed that, first, the money supply increases at a constant rate over time. Second, in a steady state, the real balance of money is constant over time. Therefore, according to these two conditions, the super-neutral results of money are obtained.
Methodology
In this model, the economy as a unit is made up of the same households with an unlimited lifetime, and the representative households benefit from the actual consumption of goods and the actual balance of money. It is also a function of desirability, continuity, good behavior, mostly concurrent and increasing relative to and the actual balances of money. Optimal control methods are used to solve the model and reach the optimal consumption path, real money balances and capital. By forming the Hamiltonian function, we will have maximization for the problem:
(1)
Where the nominal interest rate. is marginal utility of consumption. Necessary conditions are:
(2)
(3)
(4)
Using Equilibrium Relationships (2) and (3) we will have:
(5)
Results & Discussion
The results of simulating the path of macro-pattern variables indicate that monetary policy, which leads to lower nominal interest rates, has continuously increased the level of capital, production, consumption, and real money balances.
Conclusions & Suggestions
The results of solving the model in the steady state indicate that with the elasticity of real money demand relative to the nominal rate in the inseparable utility function, the use of monetary policy that reduces the nominal interest rate, leads to increase in demand for real money. Eventually, it reduces the real interest rate. So, it leads to an increase in the level of per capita capital, production and consumption. Therefore, monetary policymakers are encouraged to apply monetary policy in line with optimal monetary policy to increase nominal variables through the channel of lower nominal interest rate channels.
پژوهشی
Mohammad Ali Aboutorabi
Abstract
Introduction:
While the literature on the role of the financial development on economic growth and development is still expanding, there seems to be a definite consensus among economists regarding its positive impact on economic growth (Beck et al., 2000). This positive impact has led to the formation ...
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Introduction:
While the literature on the role of the financial development on economic growth and development is still expanding, there seems to be a definite consensus among economists regarding its positive impact on economic growth (Beck et al., 2000). This positive impact has led to the formation of researches in this field that have focused on the central role of financial development in the economies of countries.
The importance of financial development is particularly important in countries that try to get benefits from the sale of natural resources, as they have failed to get advantages from the benefits of managing these resources in order to achieve sustainable economic growth. According International Monetary Fund (2010), if natural resourcerich developing countries develop their financial systems they will be successful in managing these windfalls. So, they can increase the economy’s absorption capacity of natural resources revenues and stay away from any potential negative effects.
Theoretical Framework:
The process of Economic growth in natural resource-rich countries focuses on the development of the financial system through four basic ways, namely the transforming of natural capital into four forms of capital, whether tangible (including foreign capital and physical capital) and intangible (including human capital and social capital). Given the particular importance of intangible capital to sustainable economic growth (World Bank, 2012), this article focuses on generalized trust (as an indicator of social capital).
In fact, trust between individuals or between individuals and institutions is manifested by sharing information and social norms, and its higher levels are associated with more productive individuals and consequently higher economic growth (Elkhuizen, 2016: 6). Algan and Cahuc (2010) state that trust is one of the key determinants of economic development in all countries. They argue that generalized trust is the main factor to success in achieving economic development (Algan and Cahuc, 2010: 2060). Numerous empirical studies in the field of political science have focused mainly on the pivotal role of trust as an indicator of social capital in economic growth and development (Banfield, 1985; Arrow, 1972; Gambetta, 1988; Coleman, 1990; Greif, 1993; Fukuyama, 1995; and Putnam, 2000).
Given the key role of financial system development in achieving sustainable economic growth in resource-rich countries, and on the other hand, the high importance that public confidence plays in achieving the above objective, an important question arises: "Can financial development leads to getting benefits from natural resources revenues in the way of increasing augmented trust in the economy? ". In fact, what is referred to in the literature to the curse of natural resources is related to the negative impact of resources rents on the formation of various forms of capital. So, in countries that have been able to manage these revenues through financial development, the negative impact of natural resources have not been seen (Van der Ploege, 2010). Thus the existence of some natural resource-rich countries that through their developed financial systems have been able to properly manage the sources and inflows of their natural resource revenues and achieve significant economic growth (such as Norway, Australia and The Netherlands), can lead to proposing as an operational model for many resource-rich developing countries, including Iran.
Methodology:
Overall, from a policy perspective, it is important to understand the impacts of natural resource rents on augmented trust and whether this (positive or negative) effects will be improved through a well-developed financial institutions? In the present paper, in order to answer the basic question of this study, first, macroeconomic indicators that affect augmented trust are identified and then to study the impact of financial system development (in the banking sector) on how these rent affect augmented trust, the rolling regression technique (with fixed windows) based on the ARDL method is applied during the period 1970-2014 in Iran.
Results & Discussion:
The results of the model estimation show that the multidimensional development of the financial system in the banking sector has the potential to improve the impact of natural resource rent on public confidence in Iran. Therefore, the development of the financial system as a key structural policy is recommended for positive utilization of natural resources in Iran.
Conclusions & Suggestions:
From a policy perspective, it can be said that given the potential of the financial banking system for getting positive utilization of the rents from natural resources in order to increase augmented trust, special attention should be paid to the factors driving the financial development in Iran. Of course, regard to the flaws in the system, such as the existence of financial repression, the existence of suboptimal controls, and the lack of competitive space among financial intermediaries, we could say that if the obstacles against financial development are eliminated, it can be seen its improving effects on converting natural resources income into social capital accumulation and achieving sustainable growth and development. In this regard, policymakers should pay particular attention to the main channels of financial development in order to enhance the role of it on how resources rents affect generalized trust.
پژوهشی
azam ghezelbash; abbas ali lotfi
Abstract
Introduction
Financial markets have a key role to play in economic growth and the insurance industry, which is a financial institution, can be a factor behind economic growth. On the other hand, efficiency and efficiency in the insurance industry is also very important. The insurance industry of Iran ...
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Introduction
Financial markets have a key role to play in economic growth and the insurance industry, which is a financial institution, can be a factor behind economic growth. On the other hand, efficiency and efficiency in the insurance industry is also very important. The insurance industry of Iran is the forty-sixth in the world with 0.09% of the total production insurance premiums. Turkey's neighboring country, rankis 34th. Iran's premium per capita is $ 50 against the world average of $ 608, which is 76 points away from countries such as however,Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. To stay competitive with other units, you had to increase your performance to an acceptable level over time. The first stepis to improving the activity is to be aware of the current activity level. This recognition helps each unit become aware of its current situation and, given the current situation, can adopt a better and acceptable level of activity and efficiency with a proper approach.
Theoretical framework
Efficiency is the achievement of an entity at the optimal level of production or the extent to which a firm has access to the optimal level of production with respect to available inputs. Performance, in other words, implies how well an organization has used its resources to produce the best performance over time. Performance calculation is defined by the expected or standard output value by using this ratio: Real output / Expected output = efficiency .
The concept of efficiency is often confused with the words "productivity" and "effectiveness". Effectiveness shows the consistency of an organization's activities with the goals set for it, and productivity is actually a combination of effectiveness and efficiency because effectiveness is related to performance and efficiency using resources.
Methodology
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric method for calculating performance. This method was introduced for the first time, inspired by Farrell (1957) by Charles, Cooper and Rhodes (CCR) in 1978. In this study, by using the maximization approach of products, we examine the efficiency of insurance companies. The population studied in this study is active insurance companies in the country and the relevant statistics were compiled for the years 2007-9. DEA 2.1, Excel 2010, Eviews7 software are also used to calculate variables and estimate the pattern.
Results & Discussion
The results of this study show that among the most effective companies, the Iranian insurance company - with a low-sensitivity input-is considered to be the best company in terms of resource strength, although it is questioned due to the lack of sensitivity to the output indicators. Hafez also has a good low-pass output, but it is also weak due to lack of sensitivity to inputs or resources. Among the insurers that did not have full performance-of course, due to Indicators of input and output of the model - the low sensitivity of the Parsian insurance company to the 3 input indicators, shows the effective and high role of the company to the input sources. Also, the company is sensitive to two output factors, which indicates the proportion between input factors And output. Insurance companies from Sri Lanka, Sina, Development, and Nation are also ranked among the best insurance companies in terms of resource utilization.
Conclusions & Suggestions
Most insurance companies in Iran were low or insensitive to wage and education factors, so proper policy making should be done in the field of human resources empowerment in this industry. Regarding the financial dimension, it can be said that although insurance companies have a high sensitivity to financial factors such as fixed assets and premiums, the weaknesses of these companies in factors such as profitability and investment income show that these companies The financial dimension should also be strengthened, which requires special planning.
پژوهشی
Javad Sahamian Moghaddam; Mohsen Nazari; Tahmoras Hasangholipour; Hassan Ghalibafasl
Abstract
Introduction
one of the most important institutions in the financial market is insurance. It helps people to reduce the risk of life-threatening conditions. Insurance companies, on the other hand, face different risks depending on the issue to insurers. Therefore, these companies are looking for ways ...
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Introduction
one of the most important institutions in the financial market is insurance. It helps people to reduce the risk of life-threatening conditions. Insurance companies, on the other hand, face different risks depending on the issue to insurers. Therefore, these companies are looking for ways to transfer their risk. Disaster reliance insurance is an important tool for insurance companies to protect against very large risks and capital management. Today, catastrophic reinsurance insurance bonds have been considered as an alternative source of financing for reinsurance property and accident insurance.
Theoretical framework
The first purpose of insurance securities is financing. Today, life insurers are looking for changing some of their insurance policies into securities and increase their stock returns through capital efficiency. The second purpose of converting insurance securities is the main function of the insurance industry, such as risk transfer. Non-life insurance securities are generally issued for this purpose, especially insurance and reinsurance. Therefore, reinsurance prices are one of the key factors in the possibility of issuing these bonds. Studies such as the present study could help policy makers to develop effective policies to use catastrophic accident bonds in order to increase the acceptance capacity of reinsurance.
Methodology
The research strategy used is the Foundation's Data Theory. The most important methods of data collection in this research are: Gathering information from library resources including: articles, books and the World Wide Web to compile theoretical foundations and background research. The data and information collection of the qualitative statistical population was collected by interviewing insurance industry experts in order to develop a theoretical model.
Results & Discussion
The primary purpose of this research is to design a model to increase the acceptance capacity of reliance on insurance securities. In this study, based on the available interviews, finally six general categories (main category), twelve concepts and thirty-two codes extracted in the form of open coding and central coding were obtained in the process of data theory. By conducting interviews and analyzing the data, the researcher gained a deeper insight into the experience of the interviewees. Then, between the identified categories and features in the initial stage of open coding, reciprocating or zigzag movement was performed. The new concepts identified in the new studies were added to the previously identified categories. In necessary cases, some categories were renamed and the connection between different categories and concepts was formed.
Conclusions & Suggestions
The results demonstrated that the causal economic and non-economic conditions as the policy casual conditions cause to grow the capacity of reinsurance acceptance through Catastrophic accidents bonds in the insurance industry and the policy dimensions of increasing the capacity of accepting reinsurance by using Catastrophic accidents bonds have included insurance and exchange dimension. The underlying conditions are included macro and micro, and also the intervening conditions are long-term and short-term. This model of strategy is included a structural and institutional action. Finally, the consequences of the phenomenon of growing the capacity of accepting reinsurance through catastrophic accidents bonds are indirect and direct outcomes. Finally, we provide some suggestions to each of the various stakeholders involved in policy making of growing the capacity of accepting reinsurance through catastrophic accidents bonds.
پژوهشی
Abdollah Razavi; MohammadHosein Mahdavi Adeli
Abstract
Introduction
The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil and therefore, in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for profitability affected the major oil producers more than ...
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Introduction
The Extreme volatility of oil prices was led the numerous disruptions in the world market of oil and therefore, in the world economy in the late twentieth century. Many stocks that oil speculators imported to the market for profitability affected the major oil producers more than any other group because the marker crude oil pricing was always in change. Economic indicators are one of the most important factors in determining the price of goods in different markets and also can be considered as effective factors in oil future markets. For example, interest rates and risk premium are variables that and change future oil price from expectation channel (Fama & French, 2011). In addition, oil spot price and oil commercial reserves are affected its future price because the changing oil spot price is affected expectations and will be reflected in oil future price. The marker crude oil futures price is very important for traders, consumers and producers. Oil stock is significant and effect on the oil future price. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of economic variable on the behavior of marker crude oil futures price. Due to the high share of oil revenues in GDP in Iran, oil price volatility is led to disruptive development plans, annual plans and structural bottleneck in the long term.
Research Background
The cost of carry model refers to costs associated with the carrying value of an investment. These costs can include financial costs, such as the interest costs on bonds, interest rate, interest on loans used to make an investment, and any storage costs involved in holding a physical asset (Caporale ,(2010)). Cost of carry may also include opportunity costs associated with taking one position over another. In the derivatives markets, cost of carry is an important factor for consideration when generating values associated with an asset’s future price. Cost of carry can be a factor in several areas of the financial market. As such, cost of carry will vary depending on the costs associated with holding a particular position. Cost of carry can be somewhat ambiguous across markets which can have an effect on trading demand and may also create arbitrage opportunities. In the derivatives market for futures and forwards, cost of carry is a component of the calculation for the future price as notated below. The cost of carry associated with a physical commodity generally involves expenses tied to all of the storage costs an investor foregoes over a period of time including things like cost of physical inventory storage, insurance, and any potential losses from obsolescence. Each individual investor may also have their own carrying costs that influence their willingness to buy in the futures markets at different price levels. The futures market price calculation also takes into consideration convenience yield, which is a value benefit of actually holding the commodity.
Zyren (1997) believe that an important determinant of crude oil price is the commercial oil reserves demand. The commercial oil reserves demand is related to the differential of spot and future price. This difference reflects speculative returns for commercial crude oil reserves demand. When future price rises, commercial reserves will increase due low level storage costs in financial markets. Therefore, the difference between crude oil future and spot price determines the storage cost commercial reserves.
Research Methodology
For the first time, Engle in 1982 demonstrated that there are some conditions which some models can be studied simultaneously. These models are including the conditional average and conditional variance. The pre-mentioned models are known as ARCH models (returned conditional heteroscedasticity) that their basis is hidden in the elimination of heteroscedasticity in the studied patterns. There are many advantages of using these models. However, one of the main advantage of ARCH models is explaining the process of conditional variance due to its past information. In general, ARCH process q order is provided by the following equations.
In the model of generalized ARCH which is commonly called GARCH, both of the associated components and moving averages components appear in variance equation (Enders, 2004). The more savings in the model, the lower number of coefficients limits. One of the obvious advantages beyond the pre-mentioned advantages of GARCH model is that in some cases instead of a high order ARCH model, GARCH model is replaced that the principle of savings is more considered. Therefore, identification, and its evaluation is much easier than the previous models. Meanwhile, the simple model GARCH provides a concise description of the information (Bolerself 1986, MacCurdy and Morgan, 1988). One of the multivariate GARCH models is BEKK model which is used in investigating the overflow impact which is used in the research methodology of this paper.
Results
This study examines the factors of formation marker crude oil futures price and analyzes the effect of variables such as interest rate, risk premium, market structure and oil commercial reserves on marker crude oil futures price. Rising interest rate have increased the cost of commercial storage then oil demand reduced in the physical oil market and consequently decreased future oil price in the market. In addition, due to the very close relationship between the physical and future oil market (through the channel of expectation formation) the future and spot price are co movement. Also, strengthening risk premium leads to increase oil commercial reserves, thereby increasing demand in the physical market and decreasing demand in the futures market. In addition, as cantango increases, the commercial reserves demand will increase because the cost of buying oil at the present time lower than forward time.
