1
PhD student in economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2
Ferdowsi university
3
3. Professor of Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
4
Associate Professor, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603
Abstract
The present study provides new insights into the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy for the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2024. For this purpose, first, the uncertainty of the economy as a whole is calculated with a stochastic volatility model based on conditional fluctuations of the variables of the inflation rate, exchange rate, and production growth rate. Wavelets are then used to examine how the relationship changes over time and at different frequencies. The key findings of this analysis showed that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran significantly depends on the time horizon. In the short term (2-12 months), a positive and significant regression coefficient of 0.32 was observed, indicating a positive and significant relationship between increased liquidity and economic uncertainty. This relationship is weaker but still significant in the medium term (1-3 years) with a coefficient of 0.18 and appears stronger than other horizons in the long term (more than 3 years) with a coefficient of 0.41. These findings are consistent with theories of structural inflation in developing economies, which show that in these economies, expansionary monetary policies are associated with increased economic uncertainty not only in the short run but also in the long run. Furthermore, the results indicate that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran strongly depends on economic and political conditions. Under sanctions, this relationship is stronger and more stable. The findings emphasize that the causality and nature of the relationship between liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty vary over time and at different frequencies.
Zabihi,M , Ahmadishadmehri,M , Falahi,M A and Naji Meidani,A A . (2026). Investigating the temporal and frequency domains of the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy: a wave approach. (e48688). Monetary & Financial Economics, (), e48688 doi: 10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603
MLA
Zabihi,M , , Ahmadishadmehri,M , , Falahi,M A , and Naji Meidani,A A . "Investigating the temporal and frequency domains of the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy: a wave approach" .e48688 , Monetary & Financial Economics, , , 2026, e48688. doi: 10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603
HARVARD
Zabihi M, Ahmadishadmehri M, Falahi M A, Naji Meidani A A. (2026). 'Investigating the temporal and frequency domains of the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy: a wave approach', Monetary & Financial Economics, (), e48688. doi: 10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603
CHICAGO
M Zabihi, M Ahmadishadmehri, M A Falahi and A A Naji Meidani, "Investigating the temporal and frequency domains of the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy: a wave approach," Monetary & Financial Economics, (2026): e48688, doi: 10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603
VANCOUVER
Zabihi M, Ahmadishadmehri M, Falahi M A, Naji Meidani A A. Investigating the temporal and frequency domains of the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy: a wave approach. Monetary & Financial Economics. 2026;():e48688 (In Persian). doi: 10.22067/mfe.2026.95267.1603