The effects of oil prices and exchange rates on economic growth in Iraq using the TVP-QVAR model

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 دانشجوی دکتری پردیس البرز دانشگاه تهران

2 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران

Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the net spillover effects of oil price and exchange rate on economic growth using a quantile vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients. In order to analyze the results, the TVP-QVAR model method was used in the period 2000-2022 based on the frequency of monthly data. The main factor in the formation of fluctuations in economic growth is the exchange rate and oil price, especially if oil price fluctuations are long-term, the transmission of fluctuations and the net effect of oil price on the variable itself and economic growth will increase. If short-term fluctuations in oil prices continue and lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate and economic growth, in the medium term, fluctuations in economic growth will create the basis for the transmission of fluctuations to the oil price, and with increasing fluctuations in oil prices, the exchange rate will be highly volatile in the long term. Therefore, controlling oil price fluctuations in the short term will prevent the increase in exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth, and if policymakers do not consider this, in the medium term, the oil price will again fluctuate through the economic growth channel, and subsequently, fluctuations will be transmitted to the exchange rate with greater intensity in the long term. Considering the results obtained, it is suggested to economic policymakers that the degree of transmission and reception of effects in different time periods is proportional to different economic conditions, so all the aforementioned dimensions should be considered when making decisions about the exchange rate system and setting goals for economic growth.

Keywords

Subjects

Send comment about this article
Enter Name.
Enter a valid email address.
Enter a vaid affiliation.
Enter comments (At leaset 10 words)
CAPTCHA Image
Enter Security Code Correctly.

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 20 April 2026

  • Receive Date 20 July 2025
  • Revise Date 12 March 2026
  • Accept Date 07 April 2026