Developing a risk-based tax audit model in the Iraqi tax system with a data-driven theory approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Vaikil Abad

2 Ferdowsi Mashhad

Abstract
Risk-based tax audit is a new approach in tax compliance management that, by focusing on high-risk taxpayers, increases the efficiency of the investigation, optimizes the allocation of resources, and promotes tax justice. Despite the importance of this approach, a comprehensive and localized model has not yet been presented in the Iraqi tax system to explain its dimensions, requirements, strategies, and consequences. Therefore, the present study aimed to develop a risk-based tax audit model in the Iraqi tax system. This study was conducted with a qualitative, inductive, and exploratory approach and within the framework of the interpretive paradigm. Data were collected through in-depth and semi-structured interviews with experts in the fields of taxation, auditing, risk management, and information systems. Sampling was carried out in a purposive, theoretical, and snowball manner, and the data were analyzed based on data-driven theory and the systematic approach of Strauss and Corbin in three stages of open, axial, and selective coding. The findings showed that risk-based tax auditing in Iraq is influenced by informational, behavioral, accounting, institutional, and technological factors. Weakness in data validation and exchange, non-compliance behaviors, taxpayers’ use of accounting procedures to reduce taxes, complexity of economic activities, limited information infrastructure, legal ambiguity, and organizational resistance are among the most important factors affecting the establishment of this approach. According to the research model, designing a taxpayer risk rating system, developing data matching and validation systems, focusing on high-risk taxpayers, strengthening data-driven auditing, standardizing the case selection process, and improving the skills of tax auditors are the most important strategies for implementing risk-based tax auditing in Iraq. The consequences of implementing the model also include increasing audit efficiency, improving the quality of tax recognition, increasing voluntary compliance, reducing tax evasion, strengthening transparency, and promoting tax justice. The research results show that this approach can provide an effective framework for the Iraqi tax system to move towards smart tax governance.

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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 01 November 2026

  • Receive Date 25 July 2026
  • Revise Date 14 October 2026
  • Accept Date 27 October 2026