Monetary & Financial Economics

The Impact of Monetary Policies on the Volume of Non-Oil Exports in the Iranian Economy: A Fuzzy Regression Approach

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mostafa Shokri 1
Mostafa Elmimoghaddam 2
Reza Shamsollahi 3
Maryam Darbidi 4

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

2 Assistant Professor of Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

3 Master of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran

4 PhD in Economics, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22067/mfe.2026.95136.1600
Abstract
Exports play a significant role in the development of third world countries due to increased employment and income. In addition, exports can create huge opportunities such as access to innovation and advanced technologies and the mobility of capital goods. For this reason, it is essential for governments and economic policymakers to identify the factors affecting exports. The aim of the present study is to examine the effect of monetary policies on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran during the period 1990-2024. For this purpose, the fuzzy regression method was used. The findings of this study showed that money supply policies with a fuzzy coefficient (-0.0417, 0.0019) have a negative effect on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran. This coefficient confirms the point that the increase in the volume of money in the Iranian economy has led to higher inflation and increased production costs and, consequently, reduced the competitiveness of exported goods. Other findings also showed that the increase in the average per capita income level of other countries in the world and the increase in the real effective exchange rate have a positive effect, and on the other hand, the inflation rate and economic sanctions against Iran have a negative effect on the volume of non-oil exports of Iran.

Keywords

Monetary policy
exports
Iran
fuzzy approach
Subjects
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Monetary & Financial Economics

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 28 June 2026

  • Receive Date 27 August 2025
  • Revise Date 28 April 2026
  • Accept Date 22 June 2026

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