Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 PhD inc Economics, Faculty of Economic , University of Tehran
2 استادیار ، گروه عمومی بیمه، پژوهشکده بیمه
Abstract
The aim of this article was to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of the insurance industry in Iran. For this purpose, data from the period 1370-1402 were used based on the frequency of annual data and the autocorrelation method with nonlinear distribution lags. The results of this study indicated a significant and asymmetric effect of economic policy uncertainty on the performance of the insurance industry in the two sectors of life and non-life insurance. Based on data analysis, positive and negative uncertainty shocks have different effects on premiums received. In the life insurance sector, the impact coefficients of positive shocks are reported to be 0.22 and negative shocks are -0.15, and in the non-life insurance sector, they are 0.28 and -0.19. These results indicate that increased uncertainty in economic policies leads to growth in demand and, consequently, an increase in premiums received, while a decrease in uncertainty is associated with a decrease in insurance demand. This asymmetric relationship means that the intensity of the impact of positive shocks (increased uncertainty) on premiums received is greater than that of negative shocks (decreased uncertainty). This asymmetry is more pronounced in the non-life insurance sector than in the life insurance sector due to the coverage of more diverse and shorter-term risks and higher sensitivity to economic fluctuations.
Keywords
- Insurance Industry
- Uncertainty
- Economic Policies
- Nonlinearly Distributed Autocorrelated Lags (NARDL) Model
Main Subjects
)
Send comment about this article