Document Type : پژوهشی
Authors
Esfahan University
Abstract
Based on the list released by the international organization for standardization (ISO) on January 1st, 2014, there are almost 250 types of currencies in the world for product/service trade and financial flows. The most obvious types of currency are the US dollar, Canadian dollar, Euro, British pound , Japanese Yen, Switzerland Frank, Chinese Yuan, etc. (Evans, 2014).
Exchange rate is determined by its supply and demand while the governments can affect it through different ways. The amount and nature of government involvement in the exchange rate markets define the exchange rate systems. In fact, the exchange rate systems are a framework for determination of the price. There are generally three groups of exchange rate systems including floating, fixed, and managed system. In the floating exchange rate system, the exchange rate is only determined by the market forces without the involvement of the government. The exchanges change continuously because the exchange supply and demand have volatility. In the managed exchange rate system, the exchange rate can be changed while the governments participate in the exchange markets to affect the exchange rates. In the fixed exchange rate system, the governments demand for stabilizing the exchange rates through participation in the market or regulating systems (Rittenberg, 2012).
Theoretical Framework
Selecting an appropriate exchange rate system is of great importance for an economy because it affects the exchange rate and other economic variables of a country (e.g. the general level of prices and production). Determination of the exchange rate system after the collapse of Bretton Woods system became more important because there was already a kind of fixed and somewhat adjustable exchange rate system in the countries. After the collapse of Bretton Woods system, the countries such as the petroleum exporting countries questioned which exchange rate system is more important for their economies. In such countries, the petroleum export was considered as a main factor affecting the exchange rate because this factor affects both export and government revenues as well as the exchange rate system in such countries. One of the important frameworks to select the exchange rate system was the exchange rate protective property. Based on this framework, each exchange rate system protecting the economy of the country against the entered shocks is appropriate for its economy (Komijani&Arabi, 2002).
Methodology
The main purpose of this study was to determine the framework exchange rate system for OPEC member countries during 1990-2015. By using the method and results of this study, the exchange rate markets and policymakers can select an appropriate system for their countries to have the minimum volatility for the exchange rate resulting in no negative effect on the economy of their country.
In this study, the models of Argy, Multiple-criteria and decision-making were used to select the proper exchange rate system in OPEC member countries.
In the first model, after explaining the Argy model and presenting six price and production functions for all fixed, floating, and managed exchange rate systems, Chow, Hausman, Breusch and Pagan, Heteroscedasticity of variance, and autocorrelation tests were performed by STATA software. Then, based on the data collected for 1990-2015, the parameters of the above six parameters were estimated by GLS method and the production and price values were calculated by Excel software. Finally, the loss function was obtained for each country and exchange rate system by calculating and adding the numerical value of production and price variance.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the managed rate system was selected as an appropriate system for all OPEC member countries except Ecuador, Qatar, and Nigeria because the loss function value for this type of exchange rate system was less than the other exchange rate systems. The appropriate exchange rate system for all above mentioned countries was the fixed exchange rate system. As a general result in the studied period, the proper exchange rate system for OPEC member countries was the managed exchange rate system. In the second model, the analytical hierarchy model was used. so that, the factors affecting the evaluation and selection of an appropriate exchange rate system were categorized in three groups of fixed, managed, floating, and 33 sub criteria. The results obtained from by using the weight of qualitative data in Expert Choice software showed that the managed exchange rate system with the weight of 70.1% was the most appropriate exchange rate system and floating exchange rate system with the weight of 19.6 and fixed exchange rate system with the weight of 10.6 were respectively after the managed exchange rate system. In addition, in the managed exchange rate system, the export with the weight of 29.8%, general level of prices and production with the weight of 22.5, and economic efficiency with the weight of 13.3% were the most effective sub criteria for the managed exchange rate system.
Conclusions and Suggestions
As the results of both models indicated, the proper exchange rate system for OPEC member countries was the managed exchange rate system.
Based on the important role of exchange rate system in determination of exchange rate and its effectiveness on macroeconomic variables and helping the policymakers to better select the exchange rate system, considering the managed floating exchange rate system is suggested.
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