Document Type : پژوهشی
Authors
Abstract
Inflation has always been an economic problem and different solutions have been
proposed to control it. Although it is said that “higher output lowers inflation rate”
but it is true when other factors are constant. This study searches the answer to the
following question: “what is the effect of inflation rate and output in a case that
inflation rate and output growth has a volatility trend?”
To this aim we use seasonal data on Iran’s gross domestic product and consumer
price index from spring 1975 to summer 2008 and an exponential generalised
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to show volatility
the variables.
The results of this study show that there is an autoregressive conditional
heteroskedasticity (ARCH) process in the output growth and inflation rate. We also
find that the inflation rate and output volatility increase Inflation rate and the output
volatility higher output growth. The hypothesis that the inflation rate volatility
lowers output growth can not be accepted.
Keywords
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