Financial monetary economy
Niloofar Afkhami Rad; Taghi Ebrahimi Salari; Mehdi Behnameh; Mohammad Javad Gorjipour
Abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
The enabling factor for entering the process of globalization is the creation of a competitive enviroment. The goal is to achieve competitive power through growth, development, and improvement in the quality of life. Competitiveness is the foundation for the economic growth of ...
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1- INTRODUCTION
The enabling factor for entering the process of globalization is the creation of a competitive enviroment. The goal is to achieve competitive power through growth, development, and improvement in the quality of life. Competitiveness is the foundation for the economic growth of countries worldwide, and the real exchange rate is a good indicator for examination of a country's competitiveness in global markets. It is a variable through which we can assess the relative price of traded and non-traded goods. If there are no changes in the relative prices of other countries in the world and the real exchange rate decreases, it indicates a weakening of the international competitiveness of domestically produced goods. High fluctuations and lack of stability in real exchange rates can create an unstable environment for international trade and, as a result, reduce trade. Given the significance of the real exchange rate in influencing other macroeconomic variables and creating an uncertain environment, having knowledge of the future changes in the real exchange rate can play a crucial role in assisting monetary authorities to increase employment levels and stabilize prices.
Since many microeconomic and macroeconomic variables are influenced by the exchange rate, a proper understanding of the linear or nonlinear behavior of the exchange rate can help policymakers, firms, and traders make accurate decisions in order to effectuate desired changes.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
The relationship between the national currency and the value of the national currency against foreign currencies is called the exchange rate. In international banking, the term "currency" refers to foreign money, sometimes including the adjective "foreign" to distinguish it from the domestic or local currency of a country. Currency is not limited to banknotes issued by central banks. It includes documents such as checks, drafts, and promissory notes that are used for international payments.
Due to resource allocation based on relative prices in the free market, efficient resource allocation occurs when relative prices are properly adjusted and serve as an indicator of the real value of resources. The exchange rate is one of the most important prices, and deviations from equilibrium can disrupt the prices of other goods and services. Generally, exchange rates are divided into several categories: 1) Nominal exchange rate, 2) Real exchange rate, 3) Effective nominal exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate is the price of one unit of a currency in terms of another currency on a specific day and at a specific time. The mention of a specific time is necessary because the exchange rate may change during different hours of the day. It is common to express the price of one unit of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency in exchange rate calculations.
Changes in the real exchange rate have a significant impact on the balance of payments and the international competitiveness of a country. Economists agree that an inappropriate level of stability for the real exchange rate leads to a decrease in national welfare. Thus, the instability of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level leads to severe imbalances in the economy.
3- METHODOLOGY
To investigate the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate in Iran and in order to examine the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate in Iranian economy during the years 2004:04- 2018:02 two models have been applied: Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model and Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The possibility of threshold behavior in the real exchange rate has been confirmed by Broock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (1987) and Hansen (1999) test. Subsequently, the threshold values for the growth of the real exchange rate were calculated to be 3.84% in the first model (SETAR) and 5% in the second model (LSTAR).
In the first model, when the growth rate of the real exchange rate is below 3.84%, the growth rate of real exchange rate is minimal and classified as a regime with low growth. If the growth rate of the real exchange rate exceeds the threshold value (3.84%), its stability increases. In other words, when the growth rate of the real exchange rate is severe in Iran's economy, it is expected to be stable.
In the second model, values less than 5% are classified as a regime with low growth, while values greater than 5% are classified as a regime with high growth. The estimated coefficients for different orders in the two regimes indicate that if the growth rate of the real exchange rate is greater than 5%, this variable will exhibit stable behavior. However, at values below the threshold, due to the insignificance of the coefficients, this property will not be applicable.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The results demonstrated the possibility of nonlinear behavior in the growth rate of the real exchange rate. After calculating the optimal order for AR and considering other econometric requirements (Hansen test), two models, namely SETAR and LSTAR, were estimated. The threshold value was calculated to be 3.84% for the first model and 5% for the second model. In both models, it was observed that as long as the growth rate of the real exchange rate remains in a severe regime, it exhibits significant stability and is positively influenced by its past values.
Mitra Seyedzadeh; Mohamad Hosein Mahdavi adeli; mehdi behname; Taghi Ebrahimi salari
Abstract
Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected ...
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Introduction
Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected that the insurance industry will be able to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and distribution of income, taking into account the function of risk distribution and its compensation, as well as its role in financial development. To test this hypothesis, here has used of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach during the period 1975-2016.
The results showed that the development of the insurance industry could provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution in the short run. But in the long run, it will only lead to economic growth. However, in the long run, it could be reliant on human and physical capital for simultaneous access to economic growth and the distribution of income. Also, based on the error correction model, 88.2% and 68.1% of the non-equilibrium related to the non-oil per capita gross domestic product and Gini coefficient are adjusted in each period, respectively.
Theoretical framework
In The second half of the 20th century onwards, especially since the 1970s, following widening the income gap between the poor and the rich as well as the development in public awareness, it has been emphasized on increasing the quality of life (Mehregan & Salarian, 2008:13). In general, classical and neoclassical economists believe that an uneven distribution of income can have a positive effect on the growth process, while others such as Mirdal and Sen believe that economic growth entails an improvement in income distribution and in fact considers the reduction of inequality necessary (Khodadad Kashi & Heidari, 2008: 153). However, if economic growth and improvement in income distribution are considered two essential components of economic development, there are three strategies for development (Sharifzadegan, 2007: 23-24):
A) Growth then Redistribution (GTR): Accordingly, with economic growth and the creation of vast economic capacities and enlarging the size of the economy, the conditions for employment is automatically provided for all social and income groups, thereby achieving a balanced income distribution.
B) Redilribution then Growth (RTG): In this strategy, comprehensive resources are mainly spent on proper distribution of income, and investment on economic growth and attention to it comes at a lower level, and practically undermines the social capacity of the community. Many experiences and studies show that in the long run, this policy will not achieve a balanced distribution of income or economic growth.
C) Growth with Redistribution (GWR): This strategy emphasizes that income redistribution cannot work without relying on a booming economy. In this strategy, executive policies should be able to work both for economic growth and for income distribution. The development of the insurance industry with the aim of fostering economic growth and improving income distribution can also be considered as one of the policies of this strategy.
Methodology
In this section, the following two econometric models are considered to examine the effects of the development of the insurance industry on economic growth and income distribution:
(1)
(2)
In the empirical studies, the variable level of income is present in the income distribution model, but the present study assumes that the level of income of individuals affected by physical wealth (physical capital or CAPL) and human wealth and capital (skill, expertise, and education level or HCAP). Accordingly, the LHCAP and LCAPL variables are used in the income distribution model instead of the natural logarithm of the income level. The research models for the period 1975-2016 will be estimated using the ARDL method.
Result and discussion
Because dynamic short-run interactions between variables are not considered in OLS method, the use of this method in estimating the long-run relationship does not necessarily yield unbiased estimation. Therefore, it seems reasonable that in such cases those models be considered that have short-term dynamics and thus make the model coefficients more accurately estimated. The ARDL method is a dynamic model that allows to estimate the long-run coefficients of the model with appropriate accuracy in addition to the cointegration test between variables (Nofersti, 2008). The main advantage of using the ARDL method is that regardless of whether the research variables have unit root in levels or some become stationary by one time differentiation, a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables can be obtained.
Conclusion
Achieving high economic growth coupled with improved income distribution has always been a major concern for policymakers in developing countries. In this regard, based on their historical experiences and those of other countries as well as the theoretical and empirical studies, countries prefer the strategy of Growth with Redistribution over GTR strategy or vice versa. On the other hand, insurance is expected to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution, given its functional role in risk distribution and compensation as well as its role in financial development. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested for the Iranian economy over the period 1975-2016 using the ARDL method.
The results of estimating income distribution model as ARDL (1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1) showed that insurance penetration factor variables had a negative effect on Gini coefficient immediately and with a one-year lag. Oil revenues also have an impact on the Gini coefficient similar to that of the insurance industry, with its effect initially positive and negative with a one-year lag. But human capital with a two- and three-year lag and physical capital with a three-year lag have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient. Also, the results of estimation of economic growth model as ARDL (2,1,2,2,0) showed that development of insurance industry has positive and immediate effect on economic growth. The variables of human and physical capital have a positive significant lagged and non-lagged effect, and business openness variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth after one-year lag.
Taghi Ebrahimi Salary; Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard; Hanif Kheirkhah
Abstract
Abstract
In this research the comparative prediction of Iran's banking system (included 14 banks) was carried out by using econometric and artificial neural network models. Accordingly, at first, by using the Kohonen neural network model, the considered banks were divided into two categories of high ...
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Abstract
In this research the comparative prediction of Iran's banking system (included 14 banks) was carried out by using econometric and artificial neural network models. Accordingly, at first, by using the Kohonen neural network model, the considered banks were divided into two categories of high performance and low performance groups and then using the output of Kohonen neural network model, financial proportions and Panel Data econometric model, the performance of Iran's banking system was estimated for the period 2004-2010 and finally by using models evaluation criteria, the performance of Panel Data and ANN models was compared.
The results of Kohonen neural network model indicated that from 14 considered bank, 4 banks belong to high performance group and 10 banks are belong to low performance group. Also the results of Panal Data estimations showed that “capital income/total income "portion has the lowest and “cash/total deposits", has the haighes effect on the Iran's banking system. Finally the results of models comparison stated that the ANN model outperforms the Panel Data model to predict the performance of Iran's banking system.
Abbas Shkeri; Taghi Ebrahimi Salari
Abstract
This paper using endogenous growth models based on research and development, has investigated two economic relations in three groups of countries included developed countries, developing countries and a mixed group of both mentioned ones. At first, the effects of R&D activities on patent growth have ...
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This paper using endogenous growth models based on research and development, has investigated two economic relations in three groups of countries included developed countries, developing countries and a mixed group of both mentioned ones. At first, the effects of R&D activities on patent growth have examined and then the relation between volume of patent and growth rate in these groups has surveyed. One of the problems for estimating endogenous growth model based on R&D is finding a suitable representative for qualitative variables, we use gross R&D expenditures as a criterion for measurement of endogenous investment for changing the technology. Useful patent is a proxy for growth rate of patent result in investment in R&D field. In addition, growth of total factor productivity is the proxy for changing in technology and the growth rate of GDP as a criterion for economic growth has taken place. Results of this paper show that investment in R&D activities has significant and positive effect on patent flow in both developed and developing countries and also this effect is greater in developing countries than developed countries. Moreover in developing countries, effect of growth in R&D expenditure on growth of patent flow is 6 times of developed countries. The other finding is that in developing countries, effect of increasing patent on additional GDP is greater than the corresponding factors in developed countries. And finally, investment in R&D activities has significant and positive effect on growth of gross national output in both groups of countries.
