Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract Study of the changes in the stock price in Tehran stock exchange is of great importance. This is because of its application in forecasting the stock price in the stock exchange. The aim of this article is to investigate the forces and mechanisms that cause the dramatic changes in stock price and the formation of chaotic trend. To test whether the chaotic trend in the Tehran stock exchange exists, the daily stock price of Bakhtar Cable Company (as a sample) for the period of 05/25/2008-08/20/2008 has been tested using the Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman (BDS) test. The results showed that there exists chaotic behavior in the stock price time series, and the stock price moves in trend. The findings of the research confirmed that chaotic method can be applied to detect and forecast the stock price trend in Tehran stock exchange.

Abstract Inflation has always been an economic problem and different solutions have been proposed to control it. Although it is said that “higher output lowers inflation rate” but it is true when other factors are constant. This study searches the answer to the following question: “what is the effect of inflation rate and output in a case that inflation rate and output growth has a volatility trend?” To this aim we use seasonal data on Iran’s gross domestic product and consumer price index from spring 1975 to summer 2008 and an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to show volatility the variables. The results of this study show that there is an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) process in the output growth and inflation rate. We also find that the inflation rate and output volatility increase Inflation rate and the output volatility higher output growth. The hypothesis that the inflation rate volatility lowers output growth can not be accepted.

Abstract Examination of demand of money and recognition of important factors, is one of the important problems in macroeconomic. Identifying important factors that can affect demand money function, beside other economic factors, guaranty successfulness for economic policies. Semblance of many studies have been carried out to specify factors affecting demand of money, indicate some scattering on choosing important factors ,so results are different. Lack of knowledge about descriptive variables and correct model of money demand, produce wrong model. To avoid a prejudgment on the effective factors of Iran’s money demand (based on a specific theory), Bayesian Model Averaging is utilized. As it is common, this approach is based on the estimation of a regression model for many times (here 14,000) and estimation of coefficients with Bayesian Model Averaging. Data period is between 1976 -2007. Results show that GNP, CPI (consumer price index), formal exchange rate, ratio of budget deficit on GNP, lagged dependent variable and CPI with lagged have significant effects on demand of money.

Abstract This Paper investigates the link between accrual and cash flow components of earnings and future abnormal earnings and Equity Values. The base of tests in This paper is Ohlson (1999) model and net income, equity book value and return on equity book value, is the variables that used in this paper. The statistical population of this research is the firms accepted in the Tehran stock exchange that examined for the time period between 2000 & 2009 by 132 firms as the sample. The results of empirical tests indicate that as predicted, accruals are incrementally informative regarding future abnormal earnings. Moreover, cash flows are significantly incrementally informative regarding future abnormal earnings. The results also reveal that the findings relating to accruals and cash flows in the abnormal earnings equations are “mirror images” of each other. The results also indicate that the accrual and cash flow components of earnings are incrementally valuation relevant.

Abstract Today, real business cycles theory, subject reports, articles, letters thesis has many worldwide. It seems since the main point in the theory of business cycles is a true technology shocks, this theory can be considered a theory of economic boom. In other words this theory in describing the capabilities to create greater prosperity to recession and the anatomy of the business cycles is an asymmetric behavior. In this article the authors use an analytical technique to show that they intend to remove the rules and regulations not to date against the growth and technology innovation in financial markets the main reason for the recent economic downturn has created and therefore in contradiction with this idea theorist theory of real business cycles and hence the current financial crisis, including the serious challenges facing them know. Other hand, gains of this article can show aspects of technology shocks main business cycle is created and so this paper can be used emphasis on research that shocks are demand side.

Abstract Optimized decision making in the market of stocks and bonds needs utilizing suitable tools and skills in order to choose the best choices for investment. The most important financial information of corporations is their financial reports that help analyzing basics of stocks. Current research by basing basic information of corporation’s financial reports, has tried to examine traces of 10 instances of the most important financial ratios in the prediction of oncoming efficiency and profit of 252 companies out of those companies in the stock market of Tehran that their financial reports in a 6 year period (2001-2006) have been available. Research results show that profitability ratios and activity ratios can be proper predictive of oncoming efficiency in the stock market of Tehran. Nonetheless there is not a meaningful relationship between financial ratios and oncoming profits; that this may be due to smoothing of profits in Iranian companies.

Abstract Governmental contracts have an important place in the financial and economic system.Because the transfer of funds generally is done by contracts. In other hand because of governmental economic system in our country and concentration of capital in this section, the governmental contracts has greater importance.Therefore the special monitoring on various stages of contract from foundation to implement is necessary. Otherwise the negative consequences will follow that the corruption is the most important of those consequences. The studies shows that country's legal system has foresighted a monitoring system to assure healthy and sound implantation of projects, However, need for a comprehensive and effective surveillance system to incorporate various aspects of political and administrative issues is still evident, This is mainly because proper functioning of regulatory bodies has always been a challenge for legislators, executives, as well as judicial system. This article seeks to identify involved bodies, explore challenges and propose solutions, towards a more effective system of monitoring.