Seyed Reza Miraskari; Hamid Hosseini Nesaz
Abstract
This study aimed to identify the relationship between macroeconomic variables and credit risk of Iran's banks using multiple regression analysis was performed based on panel data. For this purpose, the seasonal data of thirteen banks which were listed in Tehran Stock Exchange market and OTC were examined ...
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This study aimed to identify the relationship between macroeconomic variables and credit risk of Iran's banks using multiple regression analysis was performed based on panel data. For this purpose, the seasonal data of thirteen banks which were listed in Tehran Stock Exchange market and OTC were examined during 1388-1393.
The sensitivity analysis used to ensure the reliability of the variables. In this way, the economic variables that are expected to have similar effects, replaced with the original model's variables. It also uses a dummy variable for exchange rate jump effect in the model.
The results show that credit risk is significantly influenced by macroeconomic environment, as the increase in GDP and growth of the stock exchange, the bank's credit risk is reduced, but the unemployment rate and the exchange rate (US Dollar) and inflation has inverse relationship with the credit risk of banks.
sharam fattahi; Kiomars Sohaili; Sara Lorestani
Abstract
Financial assets are particularly important in the saving -investment process, because Investments in financial assets is considered as the engine of production and economic growth in each country. Economic growth and Production increase in a country depends on its ability to produce financial assets. ...
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Financial assets are particularly important in the saving -investment process, because Investments in financial assets is considered as the engine of production and economic growth in each country. Economic growth and Production increase in a country depends on its ability to produce financial assets.
Financial assets shortage certainly creates defects in the market. In this case, either the savings are not sensitive to interest rates or supply assets alone are not responsive to interest rates. Also, capital markets are inefficient. For example, non-competitive markets, increase transaction costs, asymmetric information and poor performance of property rights. These problems are most severe in emerging markets and prevent the issuance of financial assets. However, marker inefficiency, market efficiency, due to investment constraints is caused by the imperfect mobility of capital in the world as well as deviations in the valuation of assets.
Methodology
Asset shortage index is determined according to the supply and demand for financial assets. Domestic demand for assets is determined by gross domestic savings (i.e. all accessible resources for investment) while the supply of financial assets is shown as published domestic bonds, stock loans, foreign assets and net domestic assets by foreign investors and changes in short-term deposits. Asset shortage index that shows assets shortage and available financial instruments for investment in the society as calculated by the following formula:
Where S is the domestic national savings, B is the bond issuance in the domestic market, E is the equity issuance in the domestic market, L is the loan issuance in the domestic market, and S.D. is the short-term deposits. NPFA is the net purchase of foreign financial assets by domestic residents, which reflects the position of domestic investors’ holdings of foreign assets (debt, equity, financial derivatives, other investments) minus the net position of foreign investors’ holdings of domestic assets. The sum of B, E, L, ΔS.D, and NPFA is therefore a reflection of the supply of financial assets.
Results and discussion
In Iran, supply growth in financial assets is less than the demand growth assets and Iran's economy is dominated by the relative assets shortage. To check this, the effectiveness of some of the macroeconomic variables on the asset shortage index is evaluated during the period 1389-1370. The used specified model is ARDL.
The Results of Estimated Long Run ARDL Model
Variables Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob
Constant -.35269 .10746 -3.2820 .017
LN )GDP( -.14138 .01416 -9.9840 .000
INF .01634 .00139 11.751 .000
RER .226E-4 .43E-5 5.2469 .002
)IR( .05946 .01182 5.0304 .002
GFB .106E-5 .25E-6 4.2411 .005
WG -.01174 .00342 -3.4337 .014
T .04737 .00256 18.455 .000
The results of estimated equation above show that the long-term coefficients of all variables in the model are statistically significant. The coefficient of log variables GDP growth rate of global GDP growth rate is negative in the above equation, which reflects the fact that, economic growth in Iran and global economic growth relative have the potential to reduce the asset shortage index. Also, the coefficients of the variables inflation rate, the real exchange rate, interest rate fluctuations, government and financial balance in the long-term trend have the positive signs. These positive coefficient indicates that a stable economic environment, stable exchange rate policy (stability of the exchange rate greatly reduces the risk policy), lack of volatility interest rates and a better financial position encourage the issuance of new financial assets and a decrease the asset shortage index.
Conclusion
Short-term and long-term results of the estimation ARDL method shows that a significant positive relationship between changes in interest rates and asset shortage. The results also show that inflation has the significant positive impact on the assets shortage index. According to the results obtained from the estimated long-run equilibrium relationship and dynamic model, the inverse correlation between economic growth and financial assets shortage was confirmed. Therefore, higher economic growth can decrease financial asset shortage index both in short run and long run. In addition, the direct and significant impact of real exchange rate on asset shortage index was also confirmed. Of course, the real exchange rate in the short run with no lag has negative coefficient and with a lag has a positive coefficient. But the whole result of these two coefficients has positive value. According to the results, the government deficit has a direct impact on reducing the financial assets shortage both in the short run and long run. Finally, it should be noted that a significant inverse correlation exist between the growth rate of world GDP and the financial assets shortage in Iran.
