نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 ارومیه

2 کارشناس ارشد علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه ، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

در مطالعه حاضر به بررسی اثرات متقارن و نامتقارن سیاست مالی و توسعه تجارت بر توسعه مالی در ایران طی دوره‌ی زمانی 2017-1973پرداخته شده است.
برای بررسی اثرات متقارن از روش جوهانسن- جوسیلوس استفاده شده و همچنین برای بررسی اثرات نامتقارن از رهیافت خودرگرسیو با وقفه‌های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) استفاده شد.
نتایج روش متقارن نشان می‌دهد که در بلندمدت، افزایش مخارج دولت و تورم اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر توسعه مالی دارند. همچنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که توسعه تجارت اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار دارد. نتایج مربوط به الگوی ECM نیز نشان می‌دهد که در هر دوره 078/0 از عدم تعادل یا خطای کوتاه‌مدت به سمت تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می‌شود. همچنین، نتایج روش (NARDL) نشان می‌دهد که شوک مثبت مخارج دولت اثر منفی و شوک منفی مخارج دولت اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر توسعه مالی دارد. همچنین، شوک مثبت توسعه تجارت اثر مثبت و شوک منفی توسعه تجارت اثر منفی بر توسعه مالی دارد. علاوه بر این، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تورم اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر توسعه مالی دارد. در نهایت، نتایج آزمون والد هم نشان می‌دهد که اثر شوک‌های مخارج دولت و توسعه تجارت هم در کوتاه‌مدت و هم در بلندمدت نامتقارن هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the asymmetric impacts of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran using the nardl nonlinear model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afsaneh Hosseinzadeh 2
  • Samad Hekmati Farid 3

2 Master of Economic Sciences in Urmia University

3 Associate Professor of Economics, Urmia University

چکیده [English]

The present study evaluated the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran during 1973-2017.
The Johansen-Jocilus method was used to investigate the symmetric effects and the (NARDL) model was used to investigate the asymmetric effects.
The results of the symmetric method show that in the long run, the increase in Government Expenditure and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. The results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect. Also, the results of the VECM model indicated that in each period, 0.078 of the imbalance or short-run error is adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium. also, the results of the NARDL method show that the positive shock of government expenditure has a negative effect and the negative shock of government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on financial development. the positive trade shock has a positive effect and negative trade shock has a negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial development. Finally, the results of the wald test show that the effects of government expenditure shocks and trade are asymmetric in both the short and long run.
The present study evaluated the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran during 1973-2017.
The Johansen-Jocilus method was used to investigate the symmetric effects and the (NARDL) model was used to investigate the asymmetric effects.
The results of the symmetric method show that in the long run, the increase in Government Expenditure and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. The results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect. Also, the results of the VECM model indicated that in each period, 0.078 of the imbalance or short-run error is adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium. also, the results of the NARDL method show that the positive shock of government expenditure has a negative effect and the negative shock of government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on financial development. the positive trade shock has a positive effect and negative trade shock has a negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial development. Finally, the results of the wald test show that the effects of government expenditure shocks and trade are asymmetric in both the short and long run.
The present study evaluated the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran during 1973-2017.
The Johansen-Jocilus method was used to investigate the symmetric effects and the (NARDL) model was used to investigate the asymmetric effects.
The results of the symmetric method show that in the long run, the increase in Government Expenditure and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. The results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect. Also, the results of the VECM model indicated that in each period, 0.078 of the imbalance or short-run error is adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium. also, the results of the NARDL method show that the positive shock of government expenditure has a negative effect and the negative shock of government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on financial development. the positive trade shock has a positive effect and negative trade shock has a negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial development. Finally, the results of the wald test show that the effects of government expenditure shocks and trade are asymmetric in both the short and long run.
The present study evaluated the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran during 1973-2017.
The Johansen-Jocilus method was used to investigate the symmetric effects and the (NARDL) model was used to investigate the asymmetric effects.
The results of the symmetric method show that in the long run, the increase in Government Expenditure and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. The results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect. Also, the results of the VECM model indicated that in each period, 0.078 of the imbalance or short-run error is adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium. also, the results of the NARDL method show that the positive shock of government expenditure has a negative effect and the negative shock of government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on financial development. the positive trade shock has a positive effect and negative trade shock has a negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial development. Finally, the results of the wald test show that the effects of government expenditure shocks and trade are asymmetric in both the short and long run.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Financial development
  • Financial Policy
  • Iran
  • Johansen- Juselius Method
  • Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL)