نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه بجنورد

چکیده

هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر بررسی اثر نااطمینانی سیاست پولی و درآمد سرانه بر حق بیمه در ایران است. تئوری­های اقتصادی به­وضوح اثر نااطمینانی سیاست پولی را بر حق بیمه نشان نمی­دهند، لذا مسأله مذکور اساساً یک مسأله تجربی است. از­این­رو، با ارائه یک مدل تجربی، اثر نامتقارن نااطمینانی سیاست پولی بر حق بیمه سرانه در ایران با استفاده از الگوی خودتوضیحی با وقفه­های توزیعی غیرخطی (NARDL) در بازه زمانی 1350-1397 آزمون گردید. برای این منظور، ابتدا نااطمینانی سیاست پولی با استفاده از الگوی EGARCH استخراج شد و به تغییرات مثبت و منفی تجزیه گردید. نتایج حاصل از برآورد ضرایب بلندمدت تغییرات مثبت و منفی نااطمینانی سیاست پولی بر حق بیمه سرانه نشان می­دهد که هر دو ضریب بلندمدت نامتقارن، منفی و معنی­دار هستند. همچنین، در بلندمدت رابطه مثبت و معنی­داری بین درآمد سرانه و حق بیمه سرانه کل وجود دارد. در کوتاه­مدت رابطه معنی­داری بین تغییرات مثبت نااطمینانی و حق بیمه سرانه در ایران وجود ندارد، اما با یک وقفه، رابطه مثبتی بین این دو وجود خواهد داشت. در عین حال، در کوتاه­مدت رابطه منفی و معنی­داری بین تغییرات منفی نااطمینانی و حق بیمه سرانه وجود دارد، اما با یک وقفه، این رابطه معنی­دار نیست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Monetary Policy Uncertainty on Insurance Premiums in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Majid Dashtban Farouji
  • abdollah khoshnoodi
  • Azim Nazari

University of Bojnord

چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of monetary policy uncertainty and per capita income on insurance premiums in Iran. Economic theories do not clearly show the effects of monetary policy uncertainty on insurance premiums. Therefore, this is essentially an empirical problem. Hence, we have presented an empirical model to test the asymmetric effect of monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums in Iran using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model over the period of 1350-1397. For this, first, the monetary policy uncertainty was extracted using EGARCH model and divided into positive and negative changes. The results of estimation of long-term coefficients for positive and negative changes in monetary policy uncertainty on per capita insurance premiums showed that both long-term coefficients are asymmetric, negative and significant. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between per capita income and total per capita insurance premiums in the long run. In the short term, there is no significant relationship between positive uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums in Iran, but with a time lag, this relationship is positive. At the same time, there is a negative and significant relationship between negative uncertainty changes and per capita insurance premiums, but with a time lag, this relationship is not significant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Monetary Policy Uncertainty
  • Per Capita Insurance Premiums
  • Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model