نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 شهید باهنر کرمان

چکیده

سیدراسکی (1967) با قرار دادن پول در تابع مطلوبیت در چارچوب یک الگوی رشد نئوکلاسیکی به تحلیل نقش پول در اقتصاد پرداخته است. نتایج­ وی بیانگر ابر خنثایی پول در وضعیت یکنواخت است. مسئله اساسی این پژوهش تعمیم الگوی سیدراسکی بر اساس مطالعه رایز (2007) است. سپس، به تحلیل غیرخنثایی اثرات سیاست­های پولی از طریق نرخ بهره اسمی در الگوی سیدراسکی تعمیم­یافته با استفاده از رویکرد کنترل بهینه پرداخته می­شود. نتایج حاصل از کالیبره کردن و تحلیل حساسیت متغیرهای کلان در اقتصاد ایران بیانگر این است که با کشش­پذیر بودن تقاضای مانده­های واقعی پول نسبت به نرخ بهره اسمی در تابع مطلوبیت جدایی­ناپذیر، سیاست پولی در وضعیت یکنواخت خنثی نیست. بنابراین، سیاست پولی که منجر به کاهش 6/3 درصدی نرخ رشد بهره اسمی شود، باعث افزایش تقاضای مانده­های واقعی پول از 82/9 به 63/10 شده است. درنهایت، باعث افزایش سطح سرمایه سرانه، تولید سرانه و مصرف سرانه از 46/8 ، 90/2 و38/2 به 42/9، 07/3 و 48/2 شده است. علاوه بر این، نتایج شبیه­سازی در وضعیت یکنواخت در اقتصاد ایران در دوره (1434-1394)، بیانگر این است که سیاست پولی که منجر به کاهش نرخ بهره اسمی شود، سطح سرمایه، تولید و مصرف سرانه را به‌طور پیوسته افزایش می­دهد.
 

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