نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
فردوسی مشهد
چکیده
عملکرد صنعت بیمه به عنوان یکی از نهادهای مالی از طرق مختلفی از جمله ایجاد ثبات مالی و اطمینان، تسهیل پس‌انداز، مدیریت ریسک و سرمایه‌گذاری ذخایر، بر بخش واقعی اقتصاد مؤثر است. از آنجا که دستیابی به رشد بالای اقتصادی همواره مد نظر سیاست گذاران بوده است. در این تحقیق رابطه علی بین عملکرد صنعت بیمه و رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا با توجه به مدل رشد درونزا رومر، رفتار تولید کالا و رشد اقتصادی ایران با استفاده از روش پویایی‌شناسی سیستم با مبدا سال 1390 برای یک دوره 40 ساله شبیه‌سازی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهند که توسعه عملکرد صنعت بیمه از طریق جبران خسارات و سرمایه‌گذاری ذخایر ریاضی، سرمایه‌های کشور را افزایش داده و منجر به افزایش رشد اقتصادی می‌گردد. همچنین با فرض ثبات درصد مخارج بیمه‌ای، افزایش رشد اقتصادی می‌تواند زمینه ساز بهبود عملکرد صنعت بیمه در کشور ایران گردد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
[1] Akbarian, Reza , et al. (2009). The Effect of Financial Market Development on Economic Growth in Iran during 1345-1386, Economic Research, 9 (3), 43-64.(in persian)
[2] Akpan , Ime T, et al. (2017). Comparative Analysis of Insurance Companies and Commercials Banks' Investment Portfolios and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Arabian Journal of Business and Management Review (Nigerian Chapter) Vol. 4, No. 2.
[3] Akinbola, O.E. (2010), Ethical Issue: A Problem in Nigerian Insurance Companies. A Massters Thesis in MBA, Submitted to School of Management, Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden.
[4] Antzoulatos, A, et al. (2007). Financial development and asymmetric information. Unpublished Working Paper. University of Piraeus, Greece.
[5] Arena, M. (2008), Does insurance market activity promote economic growth? A cross country study for industrialised and developing countries. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 75(4), 921-946.
[6] Azizi, Firoozeh & Pasban, Fatemeh. (1997). Relationship between life insurance and economic growth of the country. Insurance Industry Research, 47, 62-75.(in persian)
[7] Barlas, Y, et al. (2000). Dynamic Simulation for Strategic Insurance Management". System Dynamics Review, 16 (1), pp. 43-58. 10.
[8] Bartoszczuk, P. (2003). SD Model of Economic Growth with Environmental Aspects.
[9] Berg, H. & Schmidt, J.R., )1994(. Foreign trade and economic growth: Time series evidence from Latin America. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development: An International and Comparative Review, 3(3), pp.249 - 68.
[10] Chi-ChuanLee . (2017). Insurance activities, globalization, and economic growth: New methods, new evidence. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money Volume 51, November 2017, Pages 155-170.
[11] Cristea, M., , et al. (2014). The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Romania compared to the main results in Europe-a theoretical and empirical analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 226-235.
[12] Dadashova, Pervin & Lytvyn, Anton. (2013). A System Dynamics Approach to Modelling Business Activities of Ukrainian General Insurers.paper presented systemdynamics conferences.
[13] Derakhshide, Hamed. (2008). The need to develop a culture of insurance. New World Insurers, 157, 5-14.(in persian)
[14] Doman, A., et al.)1995(. The dynamics of managing a life insurance company. System Dynamics Review, 11(3), pp. 219-232.
[15] Forrester, J. W. (2013). Economic theory for the new millennium (2003). System Dynamics Review, 29(1), 26-41.
[16] Franco, D., )2005(. Insurance dynamics: managing information flows. The 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Boston. USA.
[17] Grösser, S., )2005(. Modeling the health insurance system of Germany: a system dynamics approach. The 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Boston. USA
[18] Haiss, P. & Sümegi, K. )2008(. The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: A theoretical and empirical analysis. Empirica, 35 (4), pp. 405-31.
[19] HanHou &Su-YinCheng. (2018). The dynamic effects of banking, life insurance, and stock markets on economic growth ._Japan and the World Economy Volume 41, March 2017, Pages 87-98.
[20] Hatemi, Abdulnasser , et al. (2018). Insurance activity and economic performance: Fresh evidence from asymmetric panel causality tests. Working Papers 201828, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
[21] Harati, Javad , et al. (2012). Analysis of welfare damage caused by environmental pollution in Iran (with the dynamics of the system). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research (Sustainable Growth and Development), 14 (4), 113-147. (in persian)
[22] Hicks, J. (1969) A Theory of Economic History; Oxford: Clarendon Press.
[23] Hou, H., et al. (2012). Life insurance and Eurozone’s economic growth. Procedia Social and Behavioural Science, 57, 126-131.
[24] Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Kardger, Ebrahim. (2007). Development of Economic Insurance: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis in the Iranian Economy. Quarterly journal of commercial research, 45 (4), 85-113.(in persian)
[25] Jafari Samimi, Ahmad & Kardger, Ibrahim. (2006). Does the development of insurer support economic growth? (Analysis of Iranian economy, 1338-1338). Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 2 (6), 17-39. (in persian)
[26] Jahangard, Esfandiar. (2011). Insurance and Economic Growth in Iran. Research and Economic Policy, 59 (19), 53-79. (in persian)
[27] Kaushal , Shrutikeerti. (2017). Banking, insurance and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis of relationship from regulated to liberalized era. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 10 Issue: 1, pp.17-37.
[28] Khan, M.S. & Senhadji, A.S. )2000(. Financial development and economic growth: An overview. Unpublished IMF Working Paper, 00/209. IMF.
[29] Khataee, M. (2008). Expansion of financial markets and economic growth. Monetary and Bank Research Institute, Islamic Republic of Iran Central Bank. (in persian)
[30] King, R.G. & Levine. R. (1993). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right; Quarterly Journal of Economics
[31] Kugler, M. & Ofoghi, R. (2005). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence From the UK; Working Paper, May, Division of Economics, University of Southampton, UK.
[32] Lee, C.C., et al. (2013). The link between insurance activities and economic growth: Some new evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 405-427
[33] Levine, R. (2004); Finance and Growth : Theory and Evidence; NBER Working paper.
[34] Lucas , R.E. (1988). On the Mechanics of Economic Development; Journal of Monetary Economics.
[35] Marijuana, C. et al., (2009). Insurance sector development and economic growth in transition countries. International Resources Journal of Finance and Economics, 34, 1-11.
[36] Mashaiekhi, Ali , et al. (2014). Dynamic modeling of mean time reduction Compensation for Damage in Insurance Companies: System Anatomy Approach. Journal of Business Research, 71. 95-117.
[37] Merton, R.C. & Bodie, Z. (2004). The Design of Financial Systems:Towards a Synthesis of Function and Structure; National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper
[38] Mirzaee, Amir , et al. (2014). The Effect of Important Indicators of Insurance on Economic Growth in OPM Member Countries Using Dynamic Panel Method. Insurance research, 113 (1), 1-22. (in persian)
[39] Pagano, M. (1993). Financial Markets and Growth: An Overview; European Economic Review.
[40] Pierson, K., (2013), Cycles in casualty: an examination of profit cycles in the insurance industry. The 31st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
[41] Pietrovito, F. (2009). Financial development and economic growth: A theoretical and empirical overview. Unpublished Working Paper.
[42] Pradan, R.P., , et al. (2016). Insurance penetration and economic growth nexus: Cross-country evidence from ASEAN. Research in International Business and Finance, 36, 447-458
[43] Pradhan, et al. (2017). Is there a link between economic growth and insurance and banking sector activities in the G‐20 countries?. Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 12-28.
[44] Pradhan, et al. (2017).Insurance market density and economic growth in Eurozone countries: the granger causality approach. Financial Innovation, 17,4-28 .
[45] Pradhan, et al. (2016).Insurance–growth nexus and macroeconomic determinants: evidence from middle-income countries. Empirical Economics June 2017, Volume 52, Issue 4, pp 1337–1366
[46] Randers, J. (2000). From limits to growth to sustainable development or SD (sustainable development) in a SD (system dynamics) perspective. System Dynamics Review, 16(3), 213-224.
[47] Robinson, J. (1952). The Generalization of the General Theory; In The Rate of Interestand other Essays , London : Macmillan.
[48] Romer, Paul M. (1990). Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98,No. 5, pp S71-S102.
[49] Rusiawan, W., et al. (2015). System Dynamics Modeling for Urban Economic Growth and CO 2 Emission: A Case Study of Jakarta, Indonesia. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 28, 330-340.
[50] Schumpeter, J.A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development; Cambridge: Harvard University press.
[51] Shahbazi, Kiumars, et al. (2013). The Relationship between Life and Non-Life Insurance and Economic Growth in Iran: Application of the Bottom Test Approach. Insurance Research, 3.21-47. (in persian)
[52] Skipper, H.D. (1997). Foreign insurers in emerging markets: Issues and concerns. Unpublished Center for Risk Management and Insurance Occasional Paper 97-2. International Insurance Foundation.
[53] Soo, H., (1996). Life insurance and economic growth: Theoretical and empirical investigation. University of Nebraska, Lincohn.
[54] Stern, D. I. & A. Kander. (2010). The role of energy in the Industrial Revolution and modern economic growth, CAMA Working Papers.
[55] Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world (Vol. 19): Irwin/McGraw-Hill Boston
[56] Stiglitz, J. E. (1974). Growth with exhaustible natural resources: efficient and optimal growth paths. Review of Economic Studies, Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources:123-138.
[57] Solow, R. M. (1974). Intergenerational equity and exhaustible resources. Review of Economic Studies, Symposium on the Economics of Exhaustible Resources: 29-46.
[58] Vadlamanati, K. (2008). Do insurance sector growth and reforms effect economic development? Empirical evidence from India. The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 2, 43-86.
[59] Webb, I., , et al. (2002). The Effect of Banking and Insurance on the Growth of Capital and Output. Journal of Financial Issues, 2(2):1-32.
[60] Saeed, K. (2014). Jay Forrester's operational approach to economics. System Dynamics Review, 30(4), 233-261.
[61] Wrigley, E. A. (1988). Continuity, Chance, and Change: The Character of the Industrial Revolution in England. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[62] Yamashita, T. (2011). A System Dynamics Approach to the Regional Macro-economic Model. Paper presented at the proceedings of The 29th International System Dynamics Conference, System Dynamics Society, Washington, USA
[63] Yusefinezjad Vahid, et al. (2015). Simulation of the financial health insurance system with the dynamical approach of systems. Journal of Hakim Health Research. 18(4). 306-315.
[64] Zou, H. & Adams, M.B. (2006). The corporate purchase of property insurance: Chinese evidence. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 15(2), pp. 165-96.
)
ارسال نظر در مورد این مقاله