نوع مقاله : پژوهشی
نویسندگان
دانشگاه مازندران
چکیده
بحران بدهی سال 2008-2007 و هزینه ناشی از اصلاح سیاست‌های مالی، بیش از پیش بر اهمیت بحث "پایداری بدهی دولت" در ادبیات اقتصادی افزوده است. بر این اساس، مطالعه حاضر تلاش کرده است با استفاده از روش هم‌انباشتگی جوهانسن - جوسیلیوس و داده‌های دوره زمانی 2014-1971 اقتصاد ایران، به بررسی پایداری بدهی دولت در قالب "تابع واکنش مالی" بپردازد. بر اساس تابع واکنش مالیِ برآورد شده، واکنش دولت به هر سه نوع بدهی(بدهی دولت به بانک مرکزی، بدهی دولت به بانک‌ها و مؤسسات اعتباری غیربانکی و بدهی خارجی دولت) به صورت ضعیف و قابل اغماض پایدار بوده است. به عبارت دیگر، دولت نسبت به افزایش در سطح بدهی‌ها از طریق کاهش کسری (یا افزایش مازاد) بودجه واکنش محسوسی نشان نداده، که این مسئله با توجه به تأثیرپذیری رشد اقتصادی از سطح بدهی دولت از طریق کانال‌های متعدد، می‌تواند زنگ هشداری برای تصمیم‌گیران و سیاست-گذاران کشور باشد. همچنین، نتایج نشان دادکه سیاست‌های مالی دولت در واکنش به نوسانات رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی رویکرد موافق چرخه‌ای داشته است. بنابراین توصیه می‌شود که با هدف تدوین یک چارچوب مشخص و باثبات برای سیاست‌های مالی دولت، چرخه‌های تجاری و انباشت بدهی به عنوان دو مؤلفه اصلی در تابع هدف سیاست‌های مالی دولت لحاظ شوند.
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