Ferdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723The Impact of Common Currency on Trade in Islamic Countries during 1990-2010The Impact of Common Currency on Trade in Islamic Countries during 1990-20101282897410.22067/pm.v20i6.36348FAMansourZarra NezhadHassanFarazmandAliFegheh MajidiJournal Article20140615The economies of Islamic countries have always under been the influence of trade and its effective factors. But so far, there has not been any comprehensive study concerning the effects of common currency on Islamic countries trade.
This paper attempts to investigate the effects of common currency on the 49 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) based on Gravity Model during 1990-2010.
The results showed that the common money based on Gravity Model is justifiable due to the fact that a set of pull and push factors such as common border GDP exchange rate volatility, trade agreement, countries’ distance and common currencies in the OIC countries would determine the flow of trade among the Islamic countries. Generally, factors such as GDP, common border, the existence of trade unions and common money are recognized to have significant positive effects on the flow of trade among the Islamic countries, while other factors such as exchange rate volatility and countries distance have significant negative effects on the flow of trade amongthe Islamic countries.The economies of Islamic countries have always under been the influence of trade and its effective factors. But so far, there has not been any comprehensive study concerning the effects of common currency on Islamic countries trade.
This paper attempts to investigate the effects of common currency on the 49 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) based on Gravity Model during 1990-2010.
The results showed that the common money based on Gravity Model is justifiable due to the fact that a set of pull and push factors such as common border GDP exchange rate volatility, trade agreement, countries’ distance and common currencies in the OIC countries would determine the flow of trade among the Islamic countries. Generally, factors such as GDP, common border, the existence of trade unions and common money are recognized to have significant positive effects on the flow of trade among the Islamic countries, while other factors such as exchange rate volatility and countries distance have significant negative effects on the flow of trade amongthe Islamic countries.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_28974_d9a11bb21bc9ba7d56e152baed4a3c9c.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Stock Market in Economic Growth: The Case of MENA CountriesStock Market in Economic Growth: The Case of MENA Countries29472900710.22067/pm.v20i6.36349FAMohammad AliAboutorabi0000-0003-4221-769XMohammad AliFalahi0000-0001-7442-4269Journal Article20140615According to the relationship between financial development and economic growth, the question is whether the type of financial structure (bank-based or market-based financial system) can affect the economic growth? This paper attempts to find an answer to the above mentioned question by surviving the effect of financial development of banks and stock markets in some MENA countries.
The Principal components analysis is used to derive a multilateral index for financial development. Moreover, using panel data econometrics, the role of banking system and stock market in encouraging economic growth in the studied countries is investigated.
The results indicate that the effect of banking system development on the economic growth in these countries is significantly negative while the effect of stock market development in spite of being positive is not statistically significant. These results are contrary to the observed empirical evidences in developed countries which are due to the specific and different characteristics of financial markets in developing countries. Therefore, in the case of these countries, it seems that the planning for “financial development” is essential before any controversy over the type of “financial structure”.According to the relationship between financial development and economic growth, the question is whether the type of financial structure (bank-based or market-based financial system) can affect the economic growth? This paper attempts to find an answer to the above mentioned question by surviving the effect of financial development of banks and stock markets in some MENA countries.
The Principal components analysis is used to derive a multilateral index for financial development. Moreover, using panel data econometrics, the role of banking system and stock market in encouraging economic growth in the studied countries is investigated.
The results indicate that the effect of banking system development on the economic growth in these countries is significantly negative while the effect of stock market development in spite of being positive is not statistically significant. These results are contrary to the observed empirical evidences in developed countries which are due to the specific and different characteristics of financial markets in developing countries. Therefore, in the case of these countries, it seems that the planning for “financial development” is essential before any controversy over the type of “financial structure”.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29007_11172787bdf65ba27b6349969d340af4.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Application of K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) for Predicting Corporate Financial Distress in Tehran Stock ExchangeApplication of K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) for Predicting Corporate Financial Distress in Tehran Stock Exchange48662902810.22067/pm.v20i6.36352FAMahmoudMousavi ShiriSadeghBafandeh Imandoust0000-0003-2949-9274MohammadBolandraftar PasikhaniJournal Article20140615Due to the effects of companies’ financial distress on stakeholders, financial distress prediction models have been one of the most attractive scopes in financial research. In recent years, after the global financial crisis, the number of bankrupt companies has risen. Since companies' financial distress is the first stage of bankruptcy, using financial ratios for predicting financial distress have attracted too much attention of the academics as well as economic and financial institutions.
Although in recent years studies on predicting companies’ financial distress in Iran have been increased, but most efforts have exploited traditional statistical methods; and just a few studies have used nonparametric methods. Recent studies demonstrate machine learning techniques outperform traditional statistical methods.
In the present study k-Nearest Neighbor classification method, derived from the field of data mining, is employed to predict financial distress of Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies during 2005-2008. Experimental results show that k-Nearest Neighbor is able to predict corporate financial distress with high accuracy.Due to the effects of companies’ financial distress on stakeholders, financial distress prediction models have been one of the most attractive scopes in financial research. In recent years, after the global financial crisis, the number of bankrupt companies has risen. Since companies' financial distress is the first stage of bankruptcy, using financial ratios for predicting financial distress have attracted too much attention of the academics as well as economic and financial institutions.
Although in recent years studies on predicting companies’ financial distress in Iran have been increased, but most efforts have exploited traditional statistical methods; and just a few studies have used nonparametric methods. Recent studies demonstrate machine learning techniques outperform traditional statistical methods.
In the present study k-Nearest Neighbor classification method, derived from the field of data mining, is employed to predict financial distress of Tehran Stock Exchange listed companies during 2005-2008. Experimental results show that k-Nearest Neighbor is able to predict corporate financial distress with high accuracy.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29028_bb9bc609d75ca1c73b0ab3da8d89d3fe.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Investigation the Applicability of Floating Securities in Order to Develop Financial System of IranInvestigation the Applicability of Floating Securities in Order to Develop Financial System of Iran67852905310.22067/pm.v20i6.36356FAAhmadSabahiAliRanjbarakiJournal Article20140615This study disires to investigate the possibility of using interest payment method and floating outcome in securities consistent with interest free banking operation in Iran. According to the dominant situatcon on financial markets of the country, the application of these securities can leads to the use of existing financial and credential capacities in the country. In this article, floating securities, functions, and its properties will be introduced at first. Then, adaption of this method of profitability is investigated by interest free banking operation in Iran. For this purpose, after explaining the concept of interest in Islam and its examples, all types of floating securities which are useful in financial markets in Iran are recommended.
The method of interest payment or floating outcome is one of the financial innovations that have transformed international financial markets. This new financial tool has been developed due to the reduction of risk of keeping securities and reduction of exchange costs in long-term period. The results shows that, granting benefit through floating method for all types of securities based on collaboration and floating securities depending on inflation index is possible. Also the application of all mentioned securities has no conflict with interest free banking operation.This study disires to investigate the possibility of using interest payment method and floating outcome in securities consistent with interest free banking operation in Iran. According to the dominant situatcon on financial markets of the country, the application of these securities can leads to the use of existing financial and credential capacities in the country. In this article, floating securities, functions, and its properties will be introduced at first. Then, adaption of this method of profitability is investigated by interest free banking operation in Iran. For this purpose, after explaining the concept of interest in Islam and its examples, all types of floating securities which are useful in financial markets in Iran are recommended.
The method of interest payment or floating outcome is one of the financial innovations that have transformed international financial markets. This new financial tool has been developed due to the reduction of risk of keeping securities and reduction of exchange costs in long-term period. The results shows that, granting benefit through floating method for all types of securities based on collaboration and floating securities depending on inflation index is possible. Also the application of all mentioned securities has no conflict with interest free banking operation.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29053_609e37f3e61f118ba50b9ba0e49f5cdc.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723The Survey of Effective Factors on the Timeliness of Annual Earnings Announcements in Listed Firms in Tehran stock ExchangeThe Survey of Effective Factors on the Timeliness of Annual Earnings Announcements in Listed Firms in Tehran stock Exchange861052908910.22067/pm.v20i6.36357FAMohmmad RezaAbbaszadehSeyed MahdiPourhoseini HesarNedaJafari NasabJournal Article20140615Earnings Announcements is an important and cost-effective source of information for investors and the other users. It has Information Content. On one hand, timeliness of annual earnings announcements adds to the relevance of earnings reporting. On the other hand, Timely earnings announcements reduce information asymmetry between the users. The objective of this study is to present evidence on the timeliness of annual earnings announcements in Listed Firms in Tehran Stock Exchange.
Our sample consists of 170 Tehran stock exchange firms and the sample period is during 2006-2010. In this study, multiple regression is used for testing the hypotheses. The possible determinants in explaining earnings reporting timeliness are divided in three categories which are the demand for earnings information, supply constraints and management opportunism and are examined.
The findings of this study portray the effect of business combination, firm complexity, financial distress, good or bad news and audit opinion on timeliness of annual earnings announcements.Earnings Announcements is an important and cost-effective source of information for investors and the other users. It has Information Content. On one hand, timeliness of annual earnings announcements adds to the relevance of earnings reporting. On the other hand, Timely earnings announcements reduce information asymmetry between the users. The objective of this study is to present evidence on the timeliness of annual earnings announcements in Listed Firms in Tehran Stock Exchange.
Our sample consists of 170 Tehran stock exchange firms and the sample period is during 2006-2010. In this study, multiple regression is used for testing the hypotheses. The possible determinants in explaining earnings reporting timeliness are divided in three categories which are the demand for earnings information, supply constraints and management opportunism and are examined.
The findings of this study portray the effect of business combination, firm complexity, financial distress, good or bad news and audit opinion on timeliness of annual earnings announcements.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29089_d2cc6063bce8482e2cdf59d6a1885d73.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Evaluating the Energy Efficiency of the Companies Admitted to Tehran Stock Exchange (A Case Study: Cement Industry)Evaluating the Energy Efficiency of the Companies Admitted to Tehran Stock Exchange (A Case Study: Cement Industry)1061202912610.22067/pm.v20i6.36358FAHoushangTaghizadehMir VahidPourrabbiJournal Article20140615In this paper, the efficiency of Cement industry firms Listed on Tehran Stock Exchange is evaluated, by using data envelopment analysis. The survey population includes 23 firms using Tehran stock exchange data. In this paper, inputs and outputs of DEA are determined through selecting the most important criteria. Inputs include: cost of fuel (gasoline, mazut and …), cost of natural gas, cost of electricity and cost of water. Outputs include net sells, increasing (decreasing) on finished products, increasing (decreasing) on products in process, and the benefits of investments. On basis of existing data the efficiency of each firm was calculated using DEAP2 software. At last, the most efficient firms were introduced as patterns. Through comparison inefficient firms could come closer to patterns and reach the efficiency level.In this paper, the efficiency of Cement industry firms Listed on Tehran Stock Exchange is evaluated, by using data envelopment analysis. The survey population includes 23 firms using Tehran stock exchange data. In this paper, inputs and outputs of DEA are determined through selecting the most important criteria. Inputs include: cost of fuel (gasoline, mazut and …), cost of natural gas, cost of electricity and cost of water. Outputs include net sells, increasing (decreasing) on finished products, increasing (decreasing) on products in process, and the benefits of investments. On basis of existing data the efficiency of each firm was calculated using DEAP2 software. At last, the most efficient firms were introduced as patterns. Through comparison inefficient firms could come closer to patterns and reach the efficiency level.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29126_a120cbe81a9c5d6c1f699e15a2691de8.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Analysis the Factors Affecting Gold Price Fluctuations Using a Markov Switching Regression Models and Neural NetworksAnalysis the Factors Affecting Gold Price Fluctuations Using a Markov Switching Regression Models and Neural Networks1211462920510.22067/pm.v20i6.36359FASaeedSamadiMinooNazifi NaeiniJournal Article20140615Gold is a strategic commodity and its price is influenced by many factors. Neural network method has a special ability to forecast ad good fitness, and markov switching regression has a special ability to distinguish the shocks and regime that switch and the exact date of fluctuations.
Methodology: In this study the proper model for gold price fluctuation is modeling after identifying the factor that affect on gold price in the period of 1980-2011. For modeling we use two non linear method, neural network and Markov Switching regression. The goal of this paper is not comparing the result of two method but also is better modeling and better forecasting with each model separately.
Results The neural network in this study has two layers and switching regression has two regimes. The results indicate that the neural network methods are well able to predict fluctuations in the gold price. Switching regression can identify the shocks during switching yeas. And it is diagnosed that the period of being in low volatility state in the gold market is more of a high volatility state. The results show that in neural network model, among factors affecting the gold price, exchange rate and the world price of gold have the greatest impact and in Markov models, CPI has the highest importance and influence on the gold price.Gold is a strategic commodity and its price is influenced by many factors. Neural network method has a special ability to forecast ad good fitness, and markov switching regression has a special ability to distinguish the shocks and regime that switch and the exact date of fluctuations.
Methodology: In this study the proper model for gold price fluctuation is modeling after identifying the factor that affect on gold price in the period of 1980-2011. For modeling we use two non linear method, neural network and Markov Switching regression. The goal of this paper is not comparing the result of two method but also is better modeling and better forecasting with each model separately.
Results The neural network in this study has two layers and switching regression has two regimes. The results indicate that the neural network methods are well able to predict fluctuations in the gold price. Switching regression can identify the shocks during switching yeas. And it is diagnosed that the period of being in low volatility state in the gold market is more of a high volatility state. The results show that in neural network model, among factors affecting the gold price, exchange rate and the world price of gold have the greatest impact and in Markov models, CPI has the highest importance and influence on the gold price.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29205_9b0bb812b40cb63d352715c0040dbfba.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723The Effect of Financial Development on CO2 Emissions in IranThe Effect of Financial Development on CO2 Emissions in Iran1471702923710.22067/pm.v20i6.36361FAMahindokhtKazemiMohammad AliFalahi0000-0001-7442-4269AkramZeynaliyanJournal Article20140615This study, using ARDL model, examines the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and indicators of financial development with variables such as real per capita non-oil income, per capita energy consumption and ratio of import and export to GDP in Iran during the period 1352-1390.
The results show that long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to real per capita income, per capita energy consumption and export in Iran are positive and with respect to import is negative. According to the results, the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP and private sector debt to the banking system to GDP have positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the long run, (0.257) and (0.304) and in the short run (0.175) and (0.233) in Iran respectively. In addition, the effect of the ratio of commercial bank domestic assets to central bank and total assets of banking system on CO2 emissions in Iran in the long run is non-significant and in the short run is estimated at 90% significance level and about (-0.205). The Causality test results show that there is a short run one-way causal relationship of the three indicators of financial development on emissions of carbon dioxide in Iran.This study, using ARDL model, examines the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and indicators of financial development with variables such as real per capita non-oil income, per capita energy consumption and ratio of import and export to GDP in Iran during the period 1352-1390.
The results show that long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to real per capita income, per capita energy consumption and export in Iran are positive and with respect to import is negative. According to the results, the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP and private sector debt to the banking system to GDP have positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the long run, (0.257) and (0.304) and in the short run (0.175) and (0.233) in Iran respectively. In addition, the effect of the ratio of commercial bank domestic assets to central bank and total assets of banking system on CO2 emissions in Iran in the long run is non-significant and in the short run is estimated at 90% significance level and about (-0.205). The Causality test results show that there is a short run one-way causal relationship of the three indicators of financial development on emissions of carbon dioxide in Iran.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29237_311864ecae3eaccf77475c575b178460.pdfFerdowsi University of Mashhad PressMonetary & Financial Economics2251-845220620130723Investigation of Simultaneous Effect of Some Factors on Poverty and Income of the Household and the Head of Household’s Economic Activity StatusInvestigation of Simultaneous Effect of Some Factors on Poverty and Income of the Household and the Head of Household’s Economic Activity Status1711892926710.22067/pm.v20i6.36363FAZahraRezaei GhahroodiMojtabaGanjaliSamaneEftekhari MahabadiJournal Article20140615In many cross-sectional studies, effective factors on poverty and income, as variables that are recorded by ordinal scale, using, respectively, expenditure and income deciles, are investigated. Many economical researches are also performed to find the effective factors on economical activity status of the head of household as a variable measured on a nominal scale. However, as these three above-mentioned variables are endogenous, the effect of effective factors on these three variables must be investigated simultaneously.
Then, in this paper, to analyze these mixed ordinal and nominal responses, a random coefficient multivariate mixed nominal and ordinal model is suggested that one, using Bayesian methods, can obtain its parameters estimates. This model is used to analyze household income and expenditure survey data.
Results show that the correlations of the three endogenous variables of poverty status, income of the household and economical activity status of the head of household are completely different and strongly significant. Also, the odds of lower levels of poverty and lower levels of income deciles are decreasing with increasing of age, and education level of the head of household and increasing of the number of employed people in the household.In many cross-sectional studies, effective factors on poverty and income, as variables that are recorded by ordinal scale, using, respectively, expenditure and income deciles, are investigated. Many economical researches are also performed to find the effective factors on economical activity status of the head of household as a variable measured on a nominal scale. However, as these three above-mentioned variables are endogenous, the effect of effective factors on these three variables must be investigated simultaneously.
Then, in this paper, to analyze these mixed ordinal and nominal responses, a random coefficient multivariate mixed nominal and ordinal model is suggested that one, using Bayesian methods, can obtain its parameters estimates. This model is used to analyze household income and expenditure survey data.
Results show that the correlations of the three endogenous variables of poverty status, income of the household and economical activity status of the head of household are completely different and strongly significant. Also, the odds of lower levels of poverty and lower levels of income deciles are decreasing with increasing of age, and education level of the head of household and increasing of the number of employed people in the household.https://danesh24.um.ac.ir/article_29267_1bc967477f11983ba1d41e2167ae575b.pdf