Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the net spillover effects of oil price and exchange rate on economic growth using a quantile vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients. In order to analyze the results, the TVP-QVAR model method was used in the period 2000-2022 based on the frequency of monthly data. The main factor in the formation of fluctuations in economic growth is the exchange rate and oil price, especially if oil price fluctuations are long-term, the transmission of fluctuations and the net effect of oil price on the variable itself and economic growth will increase. If short-term fluctuations in oil prices continue and lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate and economic growth, in the medium term, fluctuations in economic growth will create the basis for the transmission of fluctuations to the oil price, and with increasing fluctuations in oil prices, the exchange rate will be highly volatile in the long term. Therefore, controlling oil price fluctuations in the short term will prevent the increase in exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth, and if policymakers do not consider this, in the medium term, the oil price will again fluctuate through the economic growth channel, and subsequently, fluctuations will be transmitted to the exchange rate with greater intensity in the long term. Considering the results obtained, it is suggested to economic policymakers that the degree of transmission and reception of effects in different time periods is proportional to different economic conditions, so all the aforementioned dimensions should be considered when making decisions about the exchange rate system and setting goals for economic growth.

Abstract Abstract:
In today's world, climate change and the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions represent one of the most critical global challenges. Financial development, as a key factor, can play a significant role in reducing these emissions and serve as a powerful tool to combat climate change and mitigate adverse environmental effects. The substantial increase in energy consumption has led to environmental degradation in BRICS countries—economies that have experienced rapid industrial growth due to their strong economic structures. This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial development and CO₂ emissions in BRICS countries using panel regression over the period 1990–2023. The findings indicate that financial development (FE), foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and industrialization have a positive and significant relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. This suggests that the current trajectory of financial development and investment attraction in these countries, driven by a focus on polluting industries, has exacerbated emissions. In contrast, energy consumption exhibits a negative and significant impact on emissions. The effects of inflation and innovation on emissions were not statistically significant. Accordingly, it is recommended that BRICS countries reform their financial policies and revise their investment attraction models toward green development and clean technologies. Such measures can help mitigate further environmental degradation while maintaining economic growth.

Abstract Abstract
Gasoline price reform in Iran, due to its economic, political, and social dimensions, has always been one of the most challenging economic policies. The aim of this study is to identify the best scenario for gasoline price reform to minimize the negative effects on gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and employment in Iran. For this purpose, 18 different scenarios were simulated in three dimensions: the type of subsidy elimination (over three-, five-, and ten-year periods), the type of support compensation (cash or quota), and the level of support coverage (all deciles, low- and middle-income deciles, and only low-income deciles) using the Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and data from the 2016 Social Accounting Matrix of the Central Bank of Iran. The results showed that the optimal scenario is the gradual elimination of gasoline subsidies over a ten-year period (bringing the price from $0.05 to $1 per liter), cash support compensation (equivalent to a monthly quota of 60 liters of gasoline), and support coverage for low- and middle-income deciles. In this scenario, the gasoline price increases by 34.93 percent annually, and not only do production, investment, and employment not decrease, but they increase by 2.18, 1.02, and 1.24 percent, respectively. Sensitivity analysis regarding key model parameters confirmed the robustness of the results. The findings indicate that the speed of subsidy elimination alone is not sufficient; rather, the method of support compensation and precise targeting of deciles play a pivotal role in the policy's success.