Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract Development policies in Iran can be examined and analyzed from several important aspects, but what can have the most impact in this area are financial and economic issues, which have been proven to have an impact on development trends and related policies in many countries. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to identify and analyze the financial and economic drivers of Iran's development policy. The method of conducting this research is a qualitative futures study that was conducted with a trend analysis strategy and all financial and economic trends governing the development policy situation in Iran were studied by studying domestic and foreign reports, in-depth interviews, and brainstorming sessions. The population of experts and development policy activists in Iran, 25 of whom participated in the research process through interviews and participation in brainstorming sessions. Data analysis was based on trend analysis and was based on driver analysis. The research findings showed that the macro-trend of economic changes is driven by; Monitoring and measuring development, abolishing economic protectionism, foreign financing, financing through tourism, developing trade routes, the emergence of multinational corporations, decoupling the economy from the environment, supporting green economy projects and social returns, global convergence for development, changing labor markets, and good corporate governance have been identified. Then, through quantitative analysis of these drivers, it was determined that three drivers; abolishing economic protectionism with an average of (4.32), foreign financing with an average of (4.14), and the emergence of multinational corporations with an average of (4.06) are among the most important drivers for development policymaking, and the drivers of foreign financing with an average of (4.67), financing through tourism with an average of (4.35), and the emergence of multinational corporations with an average of (4.19) are the most influential drivers in development policymaking.

Abstract This study examines the dynamic effects of global steel shocks (supply and demand), global economic activity, and exchange rate volatility on Iran's stock market returns during the period 2006 to 2024, coinciding with the imposition of sanctions against Iran. This time frame includes the partial easing of sanctions under the JCPOA (2016–2018). Considering structural breaks and cyclical changes in Iran's macroeconomic variables, the TVP-SVAR model and Bayesian approach (Gibbs sampling algorithm) were employed for modeling. The findings indicate that global steel demand, as an indicator of the global economic condition, has the largest contribution to stock return fluctuations due to its impact on domestic prices and foreign exchange revenues. Following this, exchange rate shocks influence the stock market through increased rial value of exports and liquidity inflows. Global steel supply shows the least impact, likely due to stable global production and Iran's export restrictions. Global economic activity has had a negative effect on stock returns, exacerbated by intensified sanctions. Additionally, simultaneous shocks have amplifying effects: combining exchange rate shocks with other shocks yields positive impacts, while combining global activity shocks with others results in negative outcomes. An analysis of the JCPOA period reveals that the easing of sanctions had limited effects on market improvement due to political uncertainties and infrastructural weaknesses. Based on these results, policies such as managing key shocks (steel demand and exchange rates), establishing market stabilization funds, strengthening economic diplomacy, and planning to capitalize on future opportunities akin to the JCPOA are recommended.

Abstract The shadow economy, defined as a set of economic activities that remain hidden from formal institutions, represents a fundamental and complex phenomenon in Iran's economy. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the size of the shadow economy, with a specific focus on the moderating role of financial development. Utilizing data from 1978 to 2022 and employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, this research was conducted. The obtained results indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the shadow economy in the short run, but no direct impact is observed in the long run. However, financial development positively moderates this relationship, meaning it amplifies the effects of uncertainty. Furthermore, the positive relationship between GDP and the shadow economy and the inverse effect of interest rate uncertainty on it are unconventional phenomena that can be explained by the unique structure of Iran's economy. These findings emphasize the necessity for precise and targeted policymaking, taking into account the unique institutional and structural characteristics of the Iranian economy.

Abstract This research analyzes the dynamic effects of global steel shocks (supply and demand), global economic activity levels, and exchange rate fluctuations on the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group during (2006–2024). Given the presence of structural breaks and cyclical shifts in Iran’s macroeconomic variables, a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression model with a Bayesian approach (Gibbs sampling algorithm) was employed.The results indicate that global steel demand (as a proxy for global economic growth) contributes most significantly to explaining fluctuations in the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group. Exchange rate shocks also affect stock returns through increased domestic-currency export values and liquidity inflows into equity markets. Conversely, global steel supply exhibits the weakest effect, attributable to the relative stability of global production and Iran’s export constraints under sanctions. Furthermore, global economic activity shocks have had a negative impact on stock returns due to intensified sanctions.The combined effects of simultaneous shocks show amplification patterns. For instance, the interaction of exchange rate shocks with other shocks generates positive effects on stock returns, while the combination of global economic activity shocks with other shocks reinforces negative effects. During the JCPOA period, sanctions relief had a significant positive effect on the stock returns of the basic metals group.Based on these findings, policy recommendations include managing key shocks (global steel demand and exchange rates) and strengthening economic diplomacy to mitigate the negative impacts of global economic activity shocks during sanctions and to seize opportunities similar to the JCPOA.

Abstract Given the numerous challenges facing the Iranian economy, globalization and financial development are considered as two key factors in the country's economic growth process. This study examines the effects of globalization and financial development on Iran's economic growth. The main objective of this research is to create an analytical framework and model to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) and examine the effects of these two variables on Iran's gross domestic product (GDP). The data used were collected from 2000 to 2023 and include key variables such as physical capital, financial development, globalization index, government spending, and inflation rate. Advanced econometric methods such as the ARDL model and static and cointegration tests were used to analyze the data, which allows for a detailed examination of the long-term and short-term relationships between the variables. The results of the research show that globalization and financial development have a positive and significant effect on Iran's economic growth and can act as the main drivers in this process. In contrast, government spending and inflation rate have negative effects on economic growth, and these results indicate the need for optimal management of government spending and control of inflation rate to maintain economic stability. These findings can help policymakers and economic decision-makers in designing effective and efficient strategies and lead to improvement of the country's economic situation.

Abstract Sustainable development is a development that has the ability to establish a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. More precisely, it can be said that sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation, without harming the ability of future generations to meet their needs. The purpose of this article was to investigate the status of sustainable development indicators in the curriculum of the preschool period in Ahvaz city. In this regard, a statistical sample including 78 experts in the field of preschool curricula was used. In order to estimate the experimental model, factor analysis method and latent coefficients were used. The indices extracted for sustainable development variables in this study were obtained using a meta-analysis compared to the research literature. The results obtained from Maknoon variables for sustainable development indicators in the preschool curriculum showed that the intensity of the effects of these components were respectively for participation in environmental protection, saving energy consumption and recycling, interdependence, diversity Biological and non-violence has been the highest value.