Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract This paper examines central bank interventions in the context of government debt sustainability, focusing on the inflation targeting model. Using quarterly data from 1989 to 2023 for Iran and countries with inflation targeting policies, this study examined the impact of central bank interventions on government debt sustainability in the context of inflation targeting using the Markov regime shift and policy evaluation (PSM) approach. The results of the Markov model showed that monetary interventions, such as increasing liquidity, reduce debt sustainability (debt-to-GDP ratio) and weaken the relationship between government spending and revenues. Gross domestic product had a positive effect (0.61 in the high-volatility regime and 0.98 in the low-volatility regime), and central bank independence (0.96 and 0.54), exchange rate (0.48 and 0.54), oil revenues (0.43 and 0.66), and tax revenues (0.78 and 0.67) had a negative effect on debt. Liquidity (0.53 and 0.65) and inflation (0.67 and 0.54) had positive effects, with a stronger effect in the low-volatility regime. The transition probability matrix also showed that the high-volatility regime (persistence probability 0.98) was more stable than the low-volatility regime (0.91), with an average of 3 quarters of high volatility and 1 quarter of low volatility. The PSM method with the logistic model confirmed that variables such as GDP, inflation, and central bank independence affect the probability of intervention, but interventions reduce debt sustainability.

Abstract In this study, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is developed to investigate the effects of exchange rate shocks on optimal monetary policy and the stock market in Iran. The model captures key features of the Iranian economy and simulates interactions among households, firms, the government, and the central bank. It analyzes the effects of shocks to total factor productivity, exchange rates, government oil revenues, and current government expenditures. Simulation results indicate that exchange rate shocks significantly influence macroeconomic variables, generating fluctuations in stock market returns and adjustments in optimal monetary policy. Strengthening the weight of inflation targeting in the monetary policy rule mitigates the negative impact of exchange rate shocks on output and stock market performance, although it imposes additional pressure on interest rates, potentially affecting capital market dynamics. The findings reveal complex and multidimensional relationships between exchange rates, monetary policy, and the stock market, highlighting the importance of carefully coordinated policy design for economic stability. This study provides both quantitative and qualitative insights into Iran’s economic mechanisms and offers guidance for formulating optimal policies under exchange rate volatility.

Abstract Background and Objective: Entrepreneurship opportunities can be seen as a potentially feasible and profitable investment that offers a new innovative product or service to the market. Therefore, various strategies can affect the development of entrepreneurial opportunities, of which financing strategies and ensuring profitability seem to be the most important factors. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze financing strategies and ensuring profitability for the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs.
Methodology: This research used a mixed (qualitative and quantitative) method. Its quantitative part was conducted with a grounded theory approach and the quantitative part with a structural equation modeling method.
Findings and Results: In conceptualizing the qualitative part, first 56 meaningful statements were extracted from the interviews, then 44 corresponding concepts were extracted from them. Following axial coding, 44 concepts were transformed into 10 main subcategories and three final categories. The three final categories were the main concepts of the research, with the financing variable in three subcategories; External financing, internal financing and strong financial performance are conceptualized and profitability assurance is identified with three main subcategories; attention to future benefits, attention to profitability and conversion of stagnant assets into money. In the quantitative part, the results of structural equation modeling have shown that financing strategies with a coefficient of 0.85 have a direct and significant effect on the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs, and profitability assurance with a coefficient of 0.89 has a positive and direct effect on the development of entrepreneurial opportunities in Lorestan NGOs.

Abstract One of the most fundamental sectors in economic and social development planning is housing. One of the most important challenges facing the housing market is the existence of speculation in this market, which leads to a market bubble and, as a result, imposes high costs on society. The main objective of this research is to investigate the housing rental bubble and its influencing factors in Iran during the period 1990-2024. Therefore, first, using the Kalman filter, the rent bubble is calculated, and then the factors affecting it are analyzed using the ARDL approach. Findings from the estimation of the housing rent bubble showed that a significant portion of the housing rent changes in this period were not only due to changes in fundamental variables but also due to the formation of a price bubble, so that since 2019, due to increasing inflation, decreasing people's purchasing power, and increasing rents, the amount of the housing rent bubble has increased. The results of the ARDL approach also showed that in the long run, real liquidity and the unofficial exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with the housing rental bubble. In addition, the results indicate that GDP per capita, unemployment rate, and bank interest rate have a negative relationship with housing rent bubbles in the long run. This study emphasizes the government's influence on the housing market through monetary policy with liquidity and interest rate instruments. Therefore, authorities should pay attention to the effects of monetary policy on the housing market.

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of working capital management on accelerating the speed of achieving optimal liquidity in the banking industry. This study is applied and from a methodological perspective, the correlation is of a causal (post-event) type. The statistical population of the study is all banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, and using the systematic exclusion sampling method, 10 banks were selected as the research sample and were examined over a 9-year period between 1394 and 1402. The results of testing the research hypotheses showed that in fact, the liquidity conversion cycle (working capital management) has a direct effect on achieving optimal liquidity in banks and increases the speed of adjusting cash holdings in the bank. Of the two subsets of working capital management (liquidity conversion cycle), namely the receivables collection period and the debt payment period, it was observed that the receivables collection period also has a direct effect on the speed of achieving optimal liquidity, but the debt payment period has no statistical effect on the speed of achieving optimal liquidity in the sample of the present study.

Abstract 1- Introduction
With the rapid growth of information and communication technology, electronic banking will play a central and important role in various fields. In this framework, determining the impact of the expansion of electronic banking on banks' costs can be very important. The use of electronic banking tools has positive and negative effects on the productivity of bank branches and causes the final effect of each of these tools to be different. This research examines the role of electronic banking on productivity in 16 bank branches in Yazd province in the period of 1396-1400.
2- Theoretical framework
Electronic banking is the optimal integration of all activities of a bank. In other words, by using new information technology based on banking processes and in accordance with the organizational structure, it provides the possibility of providing needed services to customers. This type of banking provides facilities for customers to access banking services without the need for physical presence and using safe intermediaries. Also, it is the use of technology that allows bank customers and other stakeholders to interact with the bank without intermediaries and through various electronic channels.
3- Methodology
This research examines the effect of using electronic banking tools on the productivity indicators of the bank in Yazd province. Therefore, the research data has been obtained using the data provided by the bank's planning and development department, financial department, support department and human capital department; The data is extracted monthly, quarterly and annually. The statistical population of the research includes all branches (16 branches) of the bank in question during the years 1396-1400 in Yazd province.
3-1- Dependent variable
The branch productivity index consists of the combination of four main criteria. The main criteria include equipment, allocation, arrears and performance. Each of these four criteria is calculated by 2 to 5 indexers.
3-2- Explanatory variables
Explanatory variables are: electronic banking tools (modern documents and cards), human capital (number of employees, educational qualifications and service history), building (age of branches), deposit interest rate. In the general division of bank documents, they are: small, modern and card documents. Modern documents and cards are known as electronic banking tools.
3-3- Research model
The research model is as follows:
(1) Pr = f (Hc, Eq, Eb, Er, Ek)
where Pr is the productivity index, Hc is the vector of human capital variables, Eq is the vector of building and equipment quality and quantity variables, Eb is the vector of electronic tools use indicators, Er is the interest rate vector, and Ek is the vector of small documents.
4- Discussion
The results of Model 1 show that the amount of modern documents has a significant relationship with productivity and has a very small but negative effect on the equipment index. Also, card documents and small documents do not have a significant relationship with the equipment index. The number of manpower, service history and education level of employees have no significant relationship with the equipment index. The age of the building has a positive and significant relationship with the equipment index. The deposit rate also has a negative and significant relationship with the equipment index. In model 2, there is no significant relationship between the number of modern documents and the card with the allocation index. Also, the number of micro documents has a positive and significant relationship with the deposit allocation index. In addition, there is no significant relationship between high education degree and employees' service history with allocation index. In model 3, there is a positive and significant effect between the amount of modern documents and the arrears index. But the amount of card documents has no significant relationship with the arrears index. Also, micro documents do not have a significant effect on the arrears index. In addition, the high level of education and the number of employees have a negative effect on the arrears index. But the service history does not affect the arrears index. In model 4, modern documents have a significant and negative relationship on the performance index. On the other hand, micro documents have a significant and positive relationship on this index. There is a positive and significant relationship between the average level of education and performance index. The deposit interest rate also has a negative effect on the performance index, and the age of the building does not affect the performance index. In the 5th model of the research, the general and summarized mode is 4 productivity indicators under the index of the total score, and the title of productivity is determined from the total score. According to the targeting of the studied bank in the indicators affecting productivity, finally, the number of documents has been used as a factor affecting productivity. The number of modern documents and cards do not have a significant relationship with the productivity index. Therefore, the null hypothesis is not rejected and it cannot be said that electronic banking documents have been able to influence the productivity of the bank. Among the variables of education degree, service history, building age and deposit rate, only service history has a significant relationship with the productivity index, and it cannot be said that these variables play a significant role in the bank's productivity.
5- Conclusion and Suggestions
According to the findings of the research, it is not possible to say that electronic banking has a significant relationship with the bank's productivity, and this shows that electronic banking has not been able to reduce banking costs and create profitability as it should have been. Therefore, the main hypothesis of the research regarding the impact of electronic banking on productivity indicators can be rejected. Therefore, according to the research results, the most important suggestion is: Increasing the quality of providing electronic banking services by updating equipment and software.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the presence of feedback trading strategies among investors in the "Refah Coin Deposit Certificate" as a commodity-based financial instrument, as well as to analyze the symmetry or asymmetry of return volatility in response to market news. For this purpose, the Santana and Waldany (1992) model was employed to test for the existence of feedback trading, while the GJR-GARCH model was used to examine asymmetric responses of returns to positive and negative news. Daily data covering the period from February 22, 2016 to April 21, 2025were analyzed. The results indicated an asymmetric reaction of returns to market news, with positive news having a greater impact compared to negative news. However, no evidence of feedback trading behavior was found among investors in this market. Therefore, it can be concluded that investors have primarily focused on fundamental factors rather than short-term market trends or emotional reactions. Accordingly, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to fundamental and economic variables in their decision-making processes and avoid speculative or reactive trading strategies.

Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of uncertainty of the government's macroeconomic policies on the speed of adjustment of trade credit . Considering that financing through commercial credit is of great interest to managers of companies due to the high cost of financing through debt, therefore, achieving commercial credit as soon as possible is of great importance. The statistical population of the study is Tehran Stock Exchange and the study period has been since 2011 until 2023‌. By applying the conditions of systematic exclusion, 136 companies have been included in the final screening from the statistical population as the final sample‌. In the present study, the generalized moment approach‌ has been used to test the research hypotheses. Three factors of changes in the inflation rate, exchange rate changes, and changes in the country's economic growth rate were used to identify the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies.
The statistical results showed that the rate of adjustment of trade credit in the sample used in the study is about 75%, which in fact shows the high willingness of companies to use credit financing, and companies actively reduce 75% of the gap between the target and real business credit annually.
Also, changes in the exchange rate, changes in the inflation rate, and changes in the country's economic growth rate affect the rate of adjustment of trade credit. It has positive and meaningful. In fact, with the increase in uncertainty in economic policies, the speed of adjustment of trade credit towards optimal commercial credit will increase, and in this situation, managers will move towards credit financing.

Abstract A stable financial system plays a critical role in facilitating the flow of funds from savers to investors and optimal allocation of scarce resources to productive economic activities. Any disruption in the functioning of this system can jeopardize these essential objectives. Economic uncertainty, as a key factor affecting economic decision-making, has always been the focus of policymakers. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis by calculating an uncertainty index arising from Iran's economic policies (including monetary and exchange rate policies) during the period 1981–2022 using the GARCH model and the OECD’s ten-step methodology. Furthermore, the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and the financial stability index was examined using the Markov Switching model. Key variables affecting monetary policy uncertainty include interest rate, money supply growth rate, inflation rate, central bank independence, and government fiscal health, while the key variable for exchange rate policy uncertainty is the real exchange rate. The financial stability index was constructed using variables such as liquidity, capital adequacy ratio, bank credit to the private sector, deposit interest rates, stock market index, and exchange rate. The findings reveal that EPU1 primarily reflects domestic economic fluctuations, while EPU2 is more sensitive to international shocks like sanctions. During financial instability, external shocks dominate, whereas both domestic and external uncertainties pose threats during stable periods, highlighting the need for adaptive policy measures to maintain financial stability in Iran's economy."

Abstract Medical insurance is known as one of the most important fields of insurance in the insurance industry. This field can be designed and implemented in a wide range of designs. Medical insurance is one of the important branches of the insurance industry, which attracts the attention of many insurers and has a very high diversity due to the difference in lifestyle, purchasing power and different needs of people. Different insurance policies with various insurance coverage obligations are designed and priced according to the needs and requests of policyholders. Since the day-by-day increase in the costs paid by people to receive medical services is considered one of the most important issues and problems in the field of healthcare in the country, insurance companies have also tried, considering the importance of this issue, by providing different and innovative plans that suit the needs of people. Provide and facilitate this need so that when an accident or illness occurs, the economy of families does not fall apart due to the high cost of medical services. But in the meantime, some violations and frauds that occur in the field of medical insurance or the non-technical rates that are included for this insurance, have caused the field of medical insurance to be considered one of the losing fields in the insurance industry and cause problems for insurance companies. According to the study, the supervisory body and insurance companies should prevent price breaks and non-technical rates of companies for sale in order to reduce the loss of this field. Due to the higher growth rate of damage compared to the growth rate of medical insurance premiums in the country, this issue has had many destructive and negative effects on the loss of the medical field and has caused a negative deviation in the performance of this insurance field.

Abstract This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between financial development and sectoral composition in emerging economies. Utilizing a panel ARDL model on a dataset of 45 emerging markets over the period 1995–2023, the study uncovers a robust empirical pattern: financial development is significantly associated with structural transformation, characterized by a declining share of agriculture and a corresponding increase in the share of industry—particularly services. The results also indicate the presence of bidirectional causality between financial development and the industrial and service sectors, suggesting a mutually reinforcing dynamic in the structural transformation process. However, the paper critically evaluates this general finding within the specific institutional context of Iran. It argues that under a state-dominated, bank-based financial system marked by financial repression and directed credit policies, the classical link between finance and structural change becomes distorted. The findings reveal that in such a setting, financial expansion does not necessarily lead to efficient resource allocation or support productive transformation and may even exacerbate structural rigidities. The paper concludes that for countries like Iran, quantitative financial expansion is insufficient. Rather, qualitative financial development—anchored in deep institutional and policy reforms—is a prerequisite for fostering a healthy and sustainable structural transition.

Abstract Today, the significant impacts of blockchain technology on several industries, including the financial sector, cannot be ignored. However, its potential to increase security, speed, and transparency in the financial reports of Iraqi banks has not yet been examined. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate the impact of blockchain technology on the security, speed, and transparency of financial reports in banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange with data from the last six months of 2023 and the first three months of 2024. Descriptive statistical methods and inferential statistics (multivariate regression and structural equation model) were used for analysis. 384 people from among accountants, independent auditors, managers, and others in banks listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange was considered as a sample. The results of the hypothesis test showed that at the 99% confidence level, the level of familiarity with blockchain technology was a factor in increasing the security and quality of information in banks' financial reports. Thus, the level of use of blockchain technology had a positive and significant impact on the security, speed, and transparency of financial reports of Iraqi listed banks. Since the present study was examined in an emerging market such as Iraq, it can provide useful information in this field for readers in Iraq and other similar countries.

Abstract This study examines the dynamics of equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returns in the Tehran Stock Exchange in response to shocks arising from economic uncertainty. To identify uncertainty shocks, the proxy SVAR approach is employed within the framework of Koley and Hansen (1989). Gold is used as a proxy for uncertainty shocks, relying on unexpected international events during the period 2013–2023 (1392–1402 in the Iranian calendar), with monthly data. Gold price fluctuations around these events are extracted and introduced into the model as a structural identification instrument. Within this framework, the impact of uncertainty shocks on ETF returns is analyzed alongside other macroeconomic variables, including the exchange rate, inflation, interbank interest rate, risk aversion, and investor sentiment.

The results indicate that uncertainty shocks lead to a significant and substantial decline in ETF returns, with the strongest impact occurring within a one- to three-month horizon. This decline is primarily driven by heightened risk aversion and reduced positive investor sentiment. The effects typically persist for up to six months, after which returns revert to their initial levels. These findings are consistent with international evidence and address the gap in domestic research regarding the behavioral response of ETFs to macroeconomic uncertainties. Accordingly, adopting policies aimed at enhancing information transparency, developing risk-hedging instruments, and strengthening investor confidence is essential to mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty shocks on the capital market.

Abstract Precious metals serve as safe-haven assets during economic crises, playing a pivotal role in the reallocation of capital from stock markets. Influenced by factors such as inflation, economic uncertainty, monetary policies, and geopolitical events, these metals exert either positive or negative effects on stock indices. This study aims to investigate the impact of gold and silver price volatility on the stock indices of selected Islamic countries over the period from 2006 to 2022. Employing a quantitative methodology grounded in econometric models, the research adopts a hybrid approach integrating quantile regression with wavelet transforms to analyze the distributional properties of variables across quantiles and temporal scales (short-term, medium-term, and long-term).
The findings reveal that fluctuations in gold and silver prices have a direct and statistically significant influence on the stock indices of the selected countries. Wavelet coherence analysis indicates an overall in-phase relationship among the variables: in the short term, stock indices exhibit leading behavior; in the medium term, gold and silver take the lead; and in the long term, correlations diminish. Quantile regression results highlight variations across wavelet scales, with D1 showing stronger effects in higher quantiles, D2 demonstrating greater stability, and D3 exhibiting weaker impacts. A similar pattern, albeit with reduced intensity, is observed for silver. Consequently, these volatility dynamics aid policymakers in formulating fiscal policies and assist investors in risk management. Recommendations include multi-scale analyses for forecasting, mitigating dependencies on price fluctuations, and developing novel financial instruments. This research addresses a gap in the literature on Islamic countries and introduces methodological innovations

Abstract Bank profitability is one of the key indicators of the soundness and resilience of the banking system, playing an important role in capital strengthening, shock absorption, and the continuity of financing for the economy. This study examines the non-linear effect of liquidity risk on the profitability of Iranian commercial banks. To this end, panel data for 12 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 1382–1401 (2003–2022) are compiled, and return on assets (ROA) is used as the profitability measure. Liquidity risk is proxied by the ratio of total loans to total assets. In addition, credit risk, first differences of income diversification, the ratio of administrative expenses to assets, and bank size are included as control variables. After confirming cross-sectional dependence and applying the second-generation CIPS unit root test, the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed to test for non-linearity. Linearity tests indicate that a simple linear specification cannot capture the behavior of liquidity risk, while a PSTR model with two thresholds and three regimes based on bank size provides a better fit. The results show that the effect of liquidity risk on profitability is negative and statistically significant for small and large banks, but positive for medium-sized banks; in other words, there exists an intermediate level of liquidity risk at which a more active use of liquidity capacity translates into higher profitability. Credit risk reduces ROA across all regimes, whereas changes in income diversification play a limited, mainly control role. Overall, the findings imply that prudential policies and liquidity risk management should be tailored to bank size, alongside simultaneous control of credit risk, to sustain bank profitability in Iran.

Abstract The aim of this study is to study the effects of oil price shocks on exchange rates and economic growth using a vector autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients. One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of oil price fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Since oil price fluctuations affect both the demand side of the total economy and the supply side of the economy, studying its effects on the level of production and prices is very important and can provide appropriate policy recommendations for managing the demand side of the country's economy. In this regard, an important and noteworthy point is that the manner and extent of the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic activities depends on the initial conditions of the country's economy and, therefore, can have different effects. In this study, the TVP-VAR model method was used in the period 1972-2022 based on the frequency of seasonal data to analyze the results. The results of this study indicated that the shock from the oil price increase led to an increase in economic growth and the impact coefficient in this model varied over time and led to a fluctuating response of this variable over time. On the other hand, it was observed that the shock related to the oil price increase led to a decrease in the exchange rate and the estimated coefficient in this model was also in a way that expressed the variability of the response between the variables.

Abstract Every organization needs a performance evaluation system to monitor its progress towards achieving its goals. The absence of such a system implies a lack of communication with the internal and external environment, which could lead to the organization's decline and eventual collapse. This study presents a performance evaluation method for banks, aimed at assessing their status and analyzing the relationships among performance evaluation components. First, performance evaluation criteria were identified using content analysis, and data from nine Iranian banks, including 14 performance ratios, were evaluated. After normalizing the data, fuzzy cognitive maps and particle swarm optimization algorithms were used to determine the weights of the performance indicators. The performance indicators were then estimated. Finally, the entropy weighting method was employed to calculate the performance score for each bank. The results showed that Pasargad and Mellat banks had the best performance during this period, while Dey and Eghtesad Novin banks demonstrated the weakest performance. The research also analyzed the interrelations among various indicators and identified the influence and susceptibility of each indicator in evaluating bank performance.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION
Recent financial scandals have undermined investor confidence in corporate financial statements, making the efficiency of investment and the qualitative attributes of earnings increasingly critical for financial decision-making. In economic and commercial environments, investment is a key tool to prevent stagnation and promote sustainable growth. Managers can generate maximum returns for shareholders by optimally allocating resources and exploiting profitable opportunities. However, resource constraints and information asymmetry highlight the importance of investment efficiency, which is achieved when overinvestment is prevented, resources are directed to projects with positive net present value, and shareholder wealth is enhanced. In this context, understanding earnings quality and its impact on investment efficiency is essential, as it can guide more effective and sustainable decision-making in capital markets.

2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
According to agency theory, managers may engage in projects with negative net present value for personal gain, leading to overinvestment. Financial reporting quality and earnings quality elements - including earnings persistence, transparency, conservatism, and smoothing - can limit opportunistic behaviors and enhance access to financial resources. Companies with stable, regular, and predictable earnings generally demonstrate higher earnings quality, allowing investors and managers to make better-informed decisions. Earnings persistence helps forecast future cash flows and profits, transparency increases investor confidence and reduces inefficient investment, and conservatism mitigates the risks of overinvestment. Conversely, earnings smoothing and opacity can negatively affect investment efficiency. Empirical studies across various countries and industries show that a combination of persistence, transparency, and conservatism enhances investment efficiency and reduces financial risk. The present study innovatively examines, for the first time in Iran, the comprehensive impact of earnings quality attributes on investment efficiency in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.


3- METHODOLOGY
This study examines 120 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2013-2023. Hypotheses were tested using multiple regression models applied to panel data. The dependent variable is investment efficiency, while the independent variables are earnings quality attributes, including earnings smoothing, persistence, transparency, and accounting conservatism. Descriptive statistics and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to examine relationships between variables. This approach enables a detailed analysis of the effects of each earnings quality element on investment efficiency and the comparison of their relative significance.

4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The findings indicate that enhancing earnings quality significantly improves investment efficiency. Earnings persistence and conservatism have a positive and significant effect, ensuring that financial resources are allocated to projects with positive net present value and promoting optimal investment. Earnings transparency similarly enhances investment efficiency by reducing uncertainty and increasing investor confidence. In contrast, earnings smoothing has a negative and statistically non-significant effect, while earnings opacity has a negative and significant effect, reducing the effectiveness of capital allocation and increasing inefficient investment. Overall, companies that improve earnings quality allocate resources more efficiently, and earnings quality serves as a critical indicator for evaluating corporate investment performance. These results underscore the importance of qualitative earnings attributes in guiding investment decisions and achieving sustainable financial outcomes.

5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The results suggest that improving earnings quality - particularly by enhancing persistence, transparency, conservatism, and managing smoothing appropriately - can significantly optimize resource allocation, increase investment efficiency, and support sustainable corporate growth. Managers are encouraged to focus on these qualitative aspects, while investors should consider these factors in their decision-making. Regulatory authorities are recommended to strengthen standards for transparency and conservative accounting practices, thereby promoting efficient investment. Additionally, the Tehran Stock Exchange can facilitate informed investment decisions by regularly providing relevant earnings information. Future research could investigate the effects of earnings quality on investment efficiency across different industries, its interaction with corporate governance, its impact on firm valuation, tax planning, and corporate social responsibility.

Abstract The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the regime dependence between the oil market and financial markets (including gold prices and stock market returns) with an emphasis on the key role of uncertainty arising from high and low oil price fluctuations. This research is conducted using monthly statistical data from 1380 to 1403 and the advanced approach of smooth transition vector autoregression is used to model the dynamic behavior of variables in different economic regimes. The results of this study show that oil prices, as a key transition variable, exert different effects on financial markets in high and low volatility regimes, which highlights the importance of examining the regime-based approach in financial analysis. The model estimation results for stock market returns indicate that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, exchange rate, oil price, liquidity and inflation rate have positive and statistically significant effects (at the 5% error level) on the stock market, while gold price shows a negative and significant effect. These effects are significantly stronger in the nonlinear part, which is consistent with the reduction of the variance of the variables in this regime and reflects economic stability. These findings indicate a greater sensitivity of the stock market to macroeconomic factors in stable conditions, which can be useful for predicting and managing investment risk. In the case of gold price, the model confirms that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, exchange rate, oil price, liquidity and inflation rate have positive and significant effects, while capital market returns exert a negative and significant effect on gold price. These effects are also more prominent in the nonlinear part and are consistent with the lower variance in this regime, indicating the role of gold as a safe haven asset in stable conditions.

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the net spillover effects of oil price and exchange rate on economic growth using a quantile vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients. In order to analyze the results, the TVP-QVAR model method was used in the period 2000-2022 based on the frequency of monthly data. The main factor in the formation of fluctuations in economic growth is the exchange rate and oil price, especially if oil price fluctuations are long-term, the transmission of fluctuations and the net effect of oil price on the variable itself and economic growth will increase. If short-term fluctuations in oil prices continue and lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate and economic growth, in the medium term, fluctuations in economic growth will create the basis for the transmission of fluctuations to the oil price, and with increasing fluctuations in oil prices, the exchange rate will be highly volatile in the long term. Therefore, controlling oil price fluctuations in the short term will prevent the increase in exchange rate fluctuations and economic growth, and if policymakers do not consider this, in the medium term, the oil price will again fluctuate through the economic growth channel, and subsequently, fluctuations will be transmitted to the exchange rate with greater intensity in the long term. Considering the results obtained, it is suggested to economic policymakers that the degree of transmission and reception of effects in different time periods is proportional to different economic conditions, so all the aforementioned dimensions should be considered when making decisions about the exchange rate system and setting goals for economic growth.

Abstract This research examines how to improve supervisory effectiveness through AI functions in Iranian banking institutions using MAXQDA software. With the increasing complexity of banking operations and regulatory requirements, AI has emerged as an essential transformative technology that has great potential to enhance supervisory functions along with providing services and security measures. The research findings show that AI technologies including machine learning and natural language processing are able to accurately detect anomalies and fraud by monitoring large sets of financial data in real-time operations. This technology provides effective results through intelligent systems in three important areas including anti-money laundering (AML), financial advisory services, and improving customer experience with intelligent chatbots. Through these technologies, banks achieve higher operational efficiency, reduce human errors, and accelerate response times, which leads to increased customer trust and security. However, implementing AI in banking operations requires solving three fundamental challenges: transparency of system performance, data protection measures, and the development of appropriate legal frameworks to ensure privacy and security. This study, using qualitative methods and analyzing data collected in the software environment, examines the key variables affecting the supervisory performance of banks and provides operational solutions for the optimal and beneficial use of AI. The results of this study indicate that integrating AI into the Iranian banking system can lead to improved financial supervision, reduced risks, customer satisfaction, and the realization of smart and resilient banking.

Abstract The significance of fintech’s presence in the economy, particularly in the financial sector, is no longer a secret, and is underscored by the proliferation of recent studies examining the interplay between the performance of fintechs and macroeconomics on a global scale. According to international experiences, fintechs have significantly contributed to bolstering economic growth and controlling inflation by increasing access to financial services. Iran is host to over fifty operational fintech companies that have penetrated diverse facets of the business models employed by banks. Their presence may thus have an effect on the efficacy of the macro economy. A primary focus of economic policymakers in recent years has been the regulation of inflation. The fundamental inquiry is that how fintechs’ presence and emergence affect the inflation. Furthermore, what are the immediate and delayed consequences of fintechs’ existence on inflation? With the aid of time series data spanning 1991 to 2022 and the ARDL model, this paper examines the short- and long-term effects of fintechs on inflation. It categorizes fintechs into two distinct groups: those that engage in competition with banks and those that do not. By separating fintechs into competing and non-competing categories, the impact of each on inflation can be evaluated independently. The research findings indicate that the impact of different types of fintechs (competitor and non-competitor) on inflation differs, as does this impact during economic expansion and recession.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the impact of electronic banking infrastructure and performance on the cost of funds in 57 branches of Tejarat Bank in East Azerbaijan Province. For this purpose, monthly data for the year 2023 (1402 in the Iranian calendar) were analyzed using dynamic panel regression and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM).
The results indicate that the expansion of electronic banking alone does not necessarily guarantee a reduction in the cost of funds, and its effect depends on the type of tools used and the quality of their utilization. Increasing the number of ATMs, as a key component of electronic banking infrastructure, has a significant negative effect on the cost of funds. However, an increase in the volume and especially the average amount of ATM transactions—mostly cash withdrawals—can lead to a higher cost of funds.
Moreover, merely increasing the number of registered mobile banking users and expanding point-of-sale (POS) terminals has a neutral or even increasing effect on the cost of funds. This is mainly because a portion of mobile banking accounts remain inactive, and POS terminals generate relatively high settlement and maintenance costs without attracting stable and low-cost deposits. In terms of performance indicators, the only electronic banking tool that shows a significant and stable cost-reducing effect—both in the number and the average amount of transactions—is active mobile banking. Active users tend to maintain more stable balances in current and Qard-al-Hasanah accounts and help reduce branch operational costs.
Overall, the ratio of current accounts to total deposits and the loans-to-resources ratio are among the most important factors in reducing the cost of funds.

Abstract This study investigates the impact of public debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) on the economic growth of four selected Islamic countries (Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Egypt) during the period 1960-2023. To achieve the research objectives, the panel autoregressive distributed lag (Panel ARDL) econometric method was employed to simultaneously analyze the short-term and long-term relationships among the variables. In the empirical model, in addition to the key research variables (public debt and FDI), the role of control variables including national savings, inflation rate, real exchange rate, human capital, political stability, and the degree of trade openness was also considered. Findings from the model estimation indicate that in the long run, both public debt and inward FDI have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the studied countries. Furthermore, the results show a positive and significant effect of inflation and domestic savings, and a negative effect of the degree of trade openness on economic growth. In the short term, the error correction coefficient was negative and significant, indicating the stability of the model and its convergence towards long-term equilibrium. Based on these findings, efficient and productive management of public debt, improving the business environment and macroeconomic stability to effectively attract foreign investment, along with policies supporting national savings and managed trade openness, are presented as the main policy recommendations of this research.

Abstract The necessity of need to reduce dependence on foreign currency income from oil and move towards providing a significant part of the required currency through non-oil exports is felt more. In this regard, paying attention to the mining sector due to its rich and underground reservoirs is a suitable solution to solve this problem. However, the further development of the mining sector in order to achieve economic goals is affected by economic sanctions. Undoubtedly, examining the manner and mechanism of impact of shocks caused by economic sanctions on the country's mining sector can help the officials and economic planners of the country to better face and reduce their negative economic consequences, including reduction in production and added value, reduction in employment, reduction in investment, etc., in the mining sector. Therefore, in this study, for the first time, the effects of shocks caused by economic sanctions (1. the shock of the increase in the exchange rate, 2. the shock of the decrease in the import of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods, 3. the shock of the decrease in crude oil export income and 4. The shock of non-oil export reduction) on foreign trade of Iran's mining sector. For this purpose, the required data was collected from the social accounting matrix and the Recursive Dynamic Computable Equilibrium (RDCGE) model was used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the shocks caused by economic sanctions, in order: the shock caused by the increase in the exchange rate, the shock caused by the decrease in the import of raw materials, capital and intermediate goods, the shock caused by the decrease in crude oil export income and the shock caused by the reduction of non-oil exports have the greatest impact on trade balance of Iran's mining sector.