Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract Exchange rate volatility through instability in the economy causes uncertainty in the economy at the macro level and decision-making and planning of economic factors face a crisis. Also, the exchange rate is affected by several factors and the requirement for managing exchange rate volatility is to identify the factors that cause it. Given the special conditions of the Iranian economy and the intensification of economic sanctions in the last decade and the dependence of the government budget on oil revenues, it is important to examine the impact of oil revenues and the growth of the budget deficit on the exchange rate volatility under severe sanctions. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of oil revenues fluctuations and severe economic sanction on exchange rate volatility using quarterly data in the period (1996-2021) and the combined method of Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity (ARDL-EGARCH) in Iran. The results show that oil revenues fluctuations and budget deficit growth have positive impacts on exchange rate volatility. Also severe economic sanctions have indirectly increased exchange rate volatility by affecting fluctuations of oil revenues. Economic growth has reduced exchange rate volatility.

Abstract With the expansion of computational and simulation capacities, factor-based models have also found a special place in the economics literature. Unlike theoretical models that mainly focus on maintaining theoretical frameworks, these models have the ability to explain the behavior of economic agents without considering the representative agent assumption and other cumbersome assumptions far from reality. In this article, while describing the economic conditions after the sanctions shock, with the agent-based modeling method to simulate and evaluate the behavior of the economic factors effective in the currency structure of Iran after the sanctions shock caused by the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA NetLogo software has been paid. Considering that at least three exchange rates are created after the shock of the sanctions, the results show that there are at least four policy bottlenecks in front of the currency policymaker in this situation: a) the amount of reserves of the central bank b) the volume of activities Speculative c) The gap between the policy rate and the unofficial market rate of the currency d) The length of time period of the adjustment of the policy rate of the currency by the central bank. The lower the amount of foreign currency and gold reserves available to the central bank, the more speculative activities, the greater the gap between the policy rate and the informal market rate of the currency, and the shorter the period of adjustment of the policy rate by the central bank, the jumps The exchange rate and currency fluctuations will be more severe, so that the central bank may lose all its capacity and foreign reserves as a result of interventions, and with the complete inactivity of this bank, the sanctioned country will leave the stability of the currency system and falls into the abyss of currency crisis.

Abstract 1. INTRODUCTION
In addition to creating a wave of infections and deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has involved various countries in a particular economic crisis. Therefore, researchers have tried to study and investigate the issue from different aspects of this field. For example, some researchers showed that the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic had a great impact on financial markets and caused heavy losses to investors in a short period (Mou, 2020). Others showed that the main economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic were not caused by death, illness, and the duration of patient care, but rather fear and discrimination were the main factors and drivers affecting the economy in this crisis (Gong et al., 2020). Anyway, these studies should be supported by review articles including bibliometric articles. As far as the author has checked, no special research has been done in the bibliometric analysis of articles in the subject area of COVID-19 and economics in Iran. Therefore, this bibliometric study attempts to quantitatively analyze the literature on this field in Iran and visualize the knowledge structure in this field to help future researchers and policymakers.
2. METHODOLOGY
This applied study was conducted based on bibliometrics. The statistical population of the research includes all the articles published in the field of the COVID-19 pandemic and economics in scientific journals in the field of economics in Iran from February 2020 to January 2023. Related articles were extracted and analyzed by referring to the website of these journals and through their advanced search section and limiting the search to the words "coronavirus", "COVID-19", "epidemic", and "pandemic". The software used in this research is Excel, VOSviewer, and RavarMatrix software, each of which was used for a part of the research.
3. RESULTS & DISCUSSION
3-1. The process of publishing articles in the field of COVID-19 researches and the economics in Iran.
Results show that the trend of publishing articles in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran is on the rise, and the highest number of published articles is related to the year 2022 with 32 titles and 39% of all articles. In any case, the publication of scientific articles in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran, due to the large number of scientific journals in the field of economics in Iran, has not gone through a successful process in the studied period.
3-2. The intellectual structure of researches in the field of COVID-19 and the economics in Iran.
Evaluation of the intellectual structure of research in bibliometric analysis is usually done by examining the most frequent keywords, and the words co-occurrence. The most frequent keywords in identifying the main core of topics that make up the intellectual structure of research and the co-occurrence of words in identifying clusters, the time trend, and also the density of keywords that make up the intellectual structure of research from the point of view of introducing dominant, developed, saturated, extinct or emerging topics, they are used.
In this research, to investigate the most frequent keywords, the main words used in the title and the keywords selected by the authors in each of the articles were used. Results show that researchers in the field of COVID-19 research and economics in Iran have used 518 keywords in their articles. Keywords of COVID-19 with 82, Tehran Stock Exchange and pandemic each with 14, stock market with 9, industry and oil price each with 8 repetitions in order of the most frequent keywords of the main core of the topics that make up the intellectual structure is the researches in the field of COVID-19 and the economy in Iran, which has started in recent years.
To investigate the words co-occurrence also, social network mapping was used. Analysis of the social network map of the co-occurrence of words through three methods 1. Analysis of clusters of the most frequent keywords, 2. Investigating the time process of formation of clusters of the most frequent keywords, and 3. Density analysis of the most frequent keywords is done. Due to its novelty and the small number of articles in this field in Iran, analysis of the articles by examining the time trend and the density of the most frequent keywords will not be meaningful. Therefore, the co-occurrence of words was done only through the analysis of clusters of the most frequent keywords.
In any case, drawing the keywords co-occurrence map in the field of COVID-19 research and the economics in Iran only led to the identification of one thematic cluster. This cluster has eight main keywords including; COVID-19, Tehran Stock Exchange, pandemic, stock market, industry, oil price, economy, and exchange rate connected by red lines. Thus, it can be said that the keywords of this cluster show the direction of studies on COVID-19 and the economics in Iran, which has started in recent years.
3-3. Cooperation networks in the field of COVID-19 researches and the economy in Iran.
One of the most important cases in bibliometric evaluations is the analysis of collaboration networks between authors and universities. Knowledge of these networks facilitates the provision of financial and human resources for research and leads to the improvement of scientific interactions and communications (Ding, 2011).
In this research, to investigate collaboration networks among authors, the map of collaboration networks based on co-authorship was used.
To investigate cooperation networks among universities, the map of social networks based on co-authorship was also used. However, due to the lack of data related to universities in the reference section of Iranian journals, instead of using the relations of citation and keywords, the focus was on the direct relationship between universities.
In any case, the examination of the map of cooperation networks among authors and universities in Iran shows that Although there has been good cooperation between universities in the subject area of COVID-19 and economics, there has not been an outstanding subject connection between the authors in this area.
4. CONCLUSIONS

Abstract The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism (money volume, monetary base, and liquidity) on GDP through the exchange rate channel in the Iranian economy. In this regard, seasonal data for the period 1375-1399 and the Bayesian autocorrelation model technique have been used. The results of instantaneous shocks from the Bayesian autocorrelation model of production show that the exchange rate plays an important role in the impact of monetary policy on GDP. According to the results obtained, if the percentage of exchange rate changes is equal to the percentage of monetary base changes, the monetary base leads to an increase in production. In other words, the monetary base through the exchange rate channel leads to a positive impact on GDP. This finding is also true for the M1 money volume. The difference between the monetary base transmission mechanism and the money volume through the exchange rate channel is that the impact of the money volume on production is greater than the impact of the money base on production through the exchange rate channel. The results of this study for liquidity show that if the percentage of exchange rate changes is equal to the percentage of liquidity changes, it will have a negative impact on production. In other words, liquidity through the exchange rate channel has a negative effect on Iran's GDP. In general, the results confirm that the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the exchange rate channel is inverted U-shaped and has a positive effect to some extent, and after passing that threshold, it leads to the destruction of GDP.

Abstract In this study, the optimal monetary policy was determined to reduce the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the corona disease on value added of economic sectors (agriculture, industry and mine and services) in Iran. For this purpose, the social accounting matrix (SAM) of the Islamic Parliament Research Center and the central bank's input-output table were used to collect data. Also, to analyze the data, the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (RDCGE) model and MATLAB software were used. The results showed that among the economic sectors, the service sector is more vulnerable to the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus. Also, adoption an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 5% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on value added of studied economic sectors compared to the base scenario (not adopting a monetary policy). Also, adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 10% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors compared to the scenario 1 (5% reduction in the legal reserve rate) and adopting an expansionary monetary policy equivalent to a 20% reduction in the legal reserve rate reduces the negative effects of the shock caused by the spread of the Corona virus on the value added of studied economic sectors in comparison to scenario 2 (10% reduction in the legal reserve rate). Based on this, it is suggested to the monetary authorities to adopt an expansionary monetary policy under similar conditions so that commercial banks can provide facilities to households (in order to stimulate demand and prevent the reduction of production of goods and services) and producers (in order not to lay off or adjust the workforce) in order to reduce the value added of economic sectors.

Abstract Among the most important reasons for establishing development banks are:
- Helping to rebuild the economies of countries;
- Strengthening infrastructure and strategic sectors;
- Separating commercial loans from development loans.
High risk and long-term returns are a major feature of large-scale economic projects, which means that the private sector does not have sufficient incentive to invest, and instead, development banks, which are considered government institutions, provide financing.

Using common bank performance evaluation criteria - which are mainly based on profitability - to measure the efficiency of development banks, whose objective function is different from that of commercial banks, is a strategic error.

In other words, the neglected point in the performance evaluation indicators of state banks, and especially development banks, is the lack of attention to the extent to which banks benefit the country's economy, which can lead to state banks being pushed into competition with private banks and as a result, the stalling of large-scale development projects.

On this basis, this research proposes three dimensions: "bank health", "development orientation" and "justice orientation", along with their relevant indicators for measuring the performance of development banks.

The dimensions, components and indicators are weighted using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and a composite index is calculated for 5 development banks in the country during the years 1391 to 1400.

The results show that although the performance of development banking has improved in recent years, it is still far from satisfactory.

Abstract The main goal of this study is to design a suitable model of asset and Liability management of the Agricultural Bank with the purpose of achieving the set goals of the bank.
In this research, an attempt has been made to present the optimal value of assets, debts and cash in accordance with the structure of the financial statement. Given the determination of multiple goals and limitations in the banking system and the experience of the past years, the model used in this paper is the fuzzy ideal planning model with fuzzy constraints. The proposed model of the paper has the ability to present the optimal values of each items of balance sheet for the upcoming years according to the conditions of the previous years.
In order to reach the final solution, the number of ten ideals has been determined, and by solving the general model, the value of the objective function has been significantly improved, and by converting fuzzy numbers into definite numbers and by using the fuzzy ideal planning model, a suitable model of asset and debt management of financial year 2023 has been determined for this bank. And based on the results arising from the implementation of the model, we achieved seven ideals, including maximizing profit in the amount of 32,433,646 million Rials (31,634,068), complying the limitation of the ratio of facilities to deposits in the amount of (0.86) 0.85, improving the bank's share from the deposits of the bank system in the amount of 3,553,820,000 million Rials (3,273,413,445), complying the limitation of capital adequacy in the amount of (0.08) 0.0825, reducing the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets in the amount of (0.77) 0.66, green banking in the amount of (0.9) 0.091 and liquidity risk in the amount of 70,108,198 million Rials (0) and not achieved three less important ideals include increasing the amount of the items of balance sheet 4,433,821 302 million Rials (4,514,025,887), increasing the value of some items of assets compared to the total by (0.9) 0.84 and the amount of claims from banks and credit institutes is greater than the amount of their debits by the amount of 0.234 (1).

Abstract Background and purpose: the main examples of criminal policies in the field of economy are aimed at economic and financial crimes, and economic and financial crimes have been given a lot of attention due to their large increase in society, and in this regard, criminal policies to deal with economic and financial crimes from the degree are of great importance, on this basis, the purpose of this research is to develop a model of Iran's criminal policy in the field of economic and financial crimes.
Research method: Qualitative research method with grounded theory approach. Data collection has been done through theoretical literature, policy documents, authentic research reports, and in-depth interviews, and data analysis has been done in three stages of open, central, and selective coding. The sampling method was also purposeful and the sampling process continued until theoretical saturation and finally the research interviews reached theoretical saturation with 17 interviews.
Findings and results: The results based on three stages of coding, analysis of 17 in-depth interviews with participants and content analysis of several original research works and some rules and conventions resulted in 130 open codes, 46 core codes and 16 selective or core codes to a paradigm model of criminal policy. Iran's participation in the field of economy has reached. The main selective codes include: causal conditions (feeling the need for cooperative criminal policy, accepting the principle of divine sovereignty and reforming judicial and economic structures); Background conditions (civil society empowerment, strong government response and control and prevention); Intervening conditions (surveillance and monitoring and formulation of policies based on research and evaluation); Central phenomenon (Iran's collaborative criminal policy in the field of economy); Strategies (integrated institutional cooperation, the principle of balance and coordination, strengthening policy and legislation and community response); The consequences are (drawing the coordinates of Iran's criminal policy in the economy, implementing the ideals of the country's criminal policy and general tax compliance), which can answer the research questions in a paradigmatic model, as well as a comprehensive and complete description of the state of the country's criminal policy.

Abstract Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables, economic sanctions and global commodity price index on the price index of banks and credit institutions in Iran's capital market.
Method: This study is using time series data with monthly frequency during the period of 1387-1400 and using the auto-regression approach with distribution breaks (ARDL) of the estimated model. Also, the edge test was used to test the convergence of the model.
Findings: The results of the model estimation indicate that in the dynamic model, the price index of the banks and credit institutions group is significantly affected by the examined variables, and based on the collocation test, the existence of a long-term relationship was also confirmed; That is, in the long term, the price index of the group of banks and credit institutions is significantly affected by the macroeconomic variables and the global price index of commodities. The results of the error correction model have shown that any imbalance in the model moves towards balance in the long term and it takes less than two years for the short-term balance error to be corrected and the model to return to its long-term balance.
Innovation: Previous studies to examine external factors have generally considered macroeconomic variables, while Iran's capital market is a commodity-oriented market, and on the other hand, Iran's economy is affected by economic sanctions, so in the current research, in addition to the impact of macroeconomic variables, the impact of economic sanctions And the global price index of commodities has been checked on the price index of the group of banks and credit institutions.

Abstract The interest rate is an important indicator for the economy that is affected by economic factors. Macroeconomic factors that reflect the state of the economy are important for the behavior of interest rates. In addition, major global shocks such as COVID-19 can also affect interest rates. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of economic factors on the interbank interest rate in Iran with monthly data from March 2018 to March 2024 with the ARDL approach since the beginning of the epidemic and the period after that. Experimental findings showed that the exchange rate and oil price have a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in the long term during the corona and post-corona outbreak. The results show a negative and significant relationship between the consumer price index and the interest rate in the long term. In addition, the results indicate that there was no statistically significant relationship between GDP and liquidity with interest rates in the post-Corona era. The policy implications of this study provide important findings about the factors influencing interest rates in crisis situations.

Abstract The development of companies leads to the creation of wealth only when there is a rational cost-benefit relationship between the cost of capital and the efficiency of the projects. The cost of capital is influenced by the method of financing, and its yield is reflected in the accounting profit and finally in the stock yield. This research has investigated this issue using the differential method and on 182 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the years 2016 to 2016. The role of the financing method on the profitability of the stock market and the financial efficiency of companies with capital projects has also been investigated. The results show that in emerging economies like Iran, the performance of financial efficiency and the profitability of the stock market of companies with capital projects are not affected by their financing methods. Also, the performance trend of financial efficiency and profitability of the stock market in this research sample follows similar patterns. These findings provide new evidence regarding competing theories of corporate financing.

Abstract Today, due to climate changes caused by the emission of greenhouse gases, renewable energies play an important role in achieving sustainable development. In addition, it is inevitable for countries to join the global village and develop the financial sector. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of financial development and globalization on the consumption of renewable energy in the developing societies of Asia with the new moment quantile regression (MMQREG) approach during the period of 1990-2022. The results showed that energy consumption, globalization and financial development contribute to the development of clean energy in developing countries. The results show that economic growth reduces the development of green energy in developing countries. In addition, the results did not show a significant relationship between carbon emissions and green energy development in developing countries. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals of sustainable development through the development of clean energy, the authorities of the mentioned countries should pay special attention to the role of financial development and globalization.

Abstract This study examines the dynamic effects of global steel shocks (supply and demand), global economic activity, and exchange rate volatility on Iran's stock market returns during the period 2006 to 2024, coinciding with the imposition of sanctions against Iran. This time frame includes the partial easing of sanctions under the JCPOA (2016–2018). Considering structural breaks and cyclical changes in Iran's macroeconomic variables, the TVP-SVAR model and Bayesian approach (Gibbs sampling algorithm) were employed for modeling. The findings indicate that global steel demand, as an indicator of the global economic condition, has the largest contribution to stock return fluctuations due to its impact on domestic prices and foreign exchange revenues. Following this, exchange rate shocks influence the stock market through increased rial value of exports and liquidity inflows. Global steel supply shows the least impact, likely due to stable global production and Iran's export restrictions. Global economic activity has had a negative effect on stock returns, exacerbated by intensified sanctions. Additionally, simultaneous shocks have amplifying effects: combining exchange rate shocks with other shocks yields positive impacts, while combining global activity shocks with others results in negative outcomes. An analysis of the JCPOA period reveals that the easing of sanctions had limited effects on market improvement due to political uncertainties and infrastructural weaknesses. Based on these results, policies such as managing key shocks (steel demand and exchange rates), establishing market stabilization funds, strengthening economic diplomacy, and planning to capitalize on future opportunities akin to the JCPOA are recommended.

Abstract This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy shocks on financial stability and household behavior within the framework of a small open economy. Given the structural fragility of Iran's economy in the face of fiscal volatility, the primary aim is to analyze the dynamic direct and indirect effects of increased taxation on output, consumption, exchange rates, inflation, and the budget deficit. For this purpose, a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Iranian economy is employed. Oil revenues and sanctions are incorporated into the model as exogenous shocks. The model, comprising 41 parameters, was simulated over 100 periods, and both impulse responses and impulse response functions were generated. The results indicate that monetary shocks lead to an increase in the interest rate and a decrease in inflation, whereas tax shocks increase consumption and reduce labor supply. Oil and sanction shocks have limited effects on consumption but exacerbate financial instability. A diagnostic test reveals negligible estimation error; however, issues related to data scaling are notable. It is recommended that empirical validation be conducted using Iranian data, alongside more precise modeling of exchange rate dynamics, to strengthen policy recommendations.

Abstract The interaction between the money and capital markets is a crucial topic within Iran's financial system. Despite numerous studies in financial markets, the pathology of this interaction remains largely unexplored. This research aims to identify and systematically analyze the impediments to the interaction between these two markets.Given the highly specialized nature of the research topic and the limited scholarly attention it has received, the study's population is restricted to experts and academics in the field. These individuals possess both accessibility and a deep understanding of the interaction between money and capital markets and its related pathologies in Iran.This research employs a mixed-methods approach. After a systematic literature review and interviews with eight experts, 75 impediments (25 from literature and 50 from interviews) were identified and coded using thematic analysis. Subsequently, these impediments were assessed using a fuzzy Delphi questionnaire distributed among 12 experts, leading to the confirmation of 65 impediments. These were categorized into five dimensions: policymaking, financial institutions, laws and regulations, financial instruments, and structural factors.Finally, an ISM (Interpretive Structural Modeling) questionnaire was distributed to 12 experts. Using the Group ISM method in MATLAB R2021a software, the internal relationships among these impediments were analyzed. The results revealed that policymaking is the most significant hindering factor to market interaction in Iran, followed by financial institutions, laws and regulations, financial instruments, and structural factors, in order of importance. Furthermore, policymaking and laws and regulations were identified as the most influential criteria, while financial institutions, financial instruments, and structural factors were deemed the most dependent criteria. This analysis was also performed at the component level within each dimension.

Abstract This research analyzes the dynamic effects of global steel shocks (supply and demand), global economic activity levels, and exchange rate fluctuations on the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group during (2006–2024). Given the presence of structural breaks and cyclical shifts in Iran’s macroeconomic variables, a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression model with a Bayesian approach (Gibbs sampling algorithm) was employed.The results indicate that global steel demand (as a proxy for global economic growth) contributes most significantly to explaining fluctuations in the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group. Exchange rate shocks also affect stock returns through increased domestic-currency export values and liquidity inflows into equity markets. Conversely, global steel supply exhibits the weakest effect, attributable to the relative stability of global production and Iran’s export constraints under sanctions. Furthermore, global economic activity shocks have had a negative impact on stock returns due to intensified sanctions.The combined effects of simultaneous shocks show amplification patterns. For instance, the interaction of exchange rate shocks with other shocks generates positive effects on stock returns, while the combination of global economic activity shocks with other shocks reinforces negative effects. During the JCPOA period, sanctions relief had a significant positive effect on the stock returns of the basic metals group.Based on these findings, policy recommendations include managing key shocks (global steel demand and exchange rates) and strengthening economic diplomacy to mitigate the negative impacts of global economic activity shocks during sanctions and to seize opportunities similar to the JCPOA.

Abstract Nowadays, supply chain management has become more important due to the globalization of business markets. As complexity increases, the level of uncertainty and risk in the chain also increases. Therefore, supply chain risk management is one of the issues that has received attention from organizations. Digital transformation in the supply chain is associated with benefits such as improved efficiency, increased transparency, and accelerated processes, but at the same time it also brings with it numerous risks such as cyber threats, technology dependency, and organizational resilience. This research presents an empirical model for assessing the risks of digital transformation in a sustainable supply chain using backpropagation neural network (BPNN). Research data is collected from 120 companies active in manufacturing and logistics industries, and the model is evaluated with RMSE, MAE, and classification accuracy criteria. The results show that the proposed model is able to predict the level of digital risk with 93% accuracy. Sensitivity analysis also shows that cybersecurity has the greatest impact (coefficient 0.45) on the overall risk.

Abstract This study aims to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on the efficiency of financial institutions in Iran. To conduct this study, statistical data from the period 1980 to 2022 related to the Iranian economy and a regression analysis using the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method were used. In the model, the variables of inflation uncertainty and inflation rate, exchange rate uncertainty and exchange rate growth, corruption control, government efficiency, and economic growth were used as explanatory variables to explain the behavior of efficiency financial institutions. The results obtained in this study show that during the period under study, inflation and inflation uncertainty have increased the efficiency of financial institutions, but exchange rate growth and exchange rate uncertainty have decreased the efficiency of financial institutions. The results also indicate a positive effect of institutional quality indicators and no significant effect of economic growth on the efficiency of financial institutions. These findings reaffirm the importance of paying attention to the stability of the foreign exchange market and improving institutional quality in the current conditions of the Iranian economy.

Abstract We witness a rapidly growing trend in banking data. By proper analysis of these data, a bank achieves sufficient insight for policy making and decisions at different management levels, which results in a more competitive advantage. Banks perform different data analyses and can be classified into different levels of data analysis maturity. Higher levels of data analysis maturity mean more efficient and effective use of data analysis. In this regard, one of the main challenges for the banks and achieving their business targets is how to enhance their data analytics maturity level. Therefore, having a suitable roadmap for step-by-step planning to reach a higher level of data analysis maturity and performing related activities is essential. This paper provides a comprehensive step by step process for developing a data analysis roadmap in the banking industry using T-Plan roadmap framework and in field experiments. The steps of this roadmap include initial planning, holding several workshops and meetings to identify business and market drivers, specifying current analytical needs, depicting desired analytical use cases, gap analysis, and finally, providing a roadmap for data analysis to implementation. Modeling the process of compiling the proposed road map helps the bank extract and prioritize projects and activities that are necessary for data analysis and are aligned with business goals and also increases the maturity level of data analysis.

Abstract Abstract:
The global financial crisis has provided important lessons about its impacts and the ways to mitigate its consequences. It has prompted economists to reflect on their role in understanding and managing economic crises. Extensive research has also been conducted to identify weaknesses in economic policymaking. One of the key topics in this context is the examination of the factors influencing financial development, as an efficient financial system can prevent the transmission of negative effects from financial crises to national economies.
This paper first reviews the economic strategies adopted by Asian countries in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis and then analyzes the determinants of financial development in a selection of Southeast Asian countries during the period 1980–2021 using the Panel VAR technique. The estimation results indicate that the depth of financial institutions has been the most influential factor in the financial development of these countries. In addition, the findings suggest that economic growth in these countries, driven by economic freedom, has contributed to a higher level of financial development over the study period.
1. Introduction
Global financial crises—particularly the 2008 crisis—marked a turning point in modern economic history by exposing fundamental weaknesses in the international financial system. Triggered by high-risk policies, excessive reliance on financial credit, and regulatory shortcomings, the crisis quickly evolved into a global phenomenon with severe consequences for economies around the world. In response, governments and regulatory institutions, including those responsible for financial stability, implemented a series of reforms aimed at restoring trust and stabilizing financial markets. These measures, shaped by the lessons of the crisis, now serve as the foundation for regulatory policies in many countries.
This study investigates the macroprudential policies and strategies adopted by leading countries in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. With a particular focus on the role of Southeast Asian countries in crisis management, the research analyzes how economic and financial instruments have been employed to enhance resilience and reduce systemic risks. Moreover, by evaluating the successful policy responses of these countries, the study offers practical and adaptable solutions for varying economic conditions. Subsequently, the paper specifically examines the determinants of financial development in a selection of Southeast Asian economies—including China, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore—with an emphasis on the role of economic freedom. This analysis is conducted using a panel Vector Autoregression (Panel VAR) model over the period 1980–2021.
2. Literature
The 2008 financial crisis, one of the largest and most profound economic crises of the 21st century, had a significant impact on global economic stability. The collapse of major financial institutions and its widespread repercussions prompted policymakers and regulatory bodies to re-evaluate financial system structures. Structural weaknesses in the financial system, insufficient regulation, and ineffective risk management were among the key factors that accelerated the crisis. Furthermore, the complexity of financial instruments and the high interdependence among financial institutions intensified the severity of the crisis (Acharya & Richardson, 2009). In response to the post-crisis need for financial system reform, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) has played a central role in assessing risk management strategies and regulatory reforms. Based on its evaluations, six core areas have been identified to enhance global financial stability in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis—each offering a response to the challenges revealed by the crisis and serving as lessons for the future.
3. Methodology
This study employs a panel Vector Autoregression (VAR) model using panel data. Generally, VAR models treat variables as endogenous, allowing for the examination of impulse response functions. However, in some instances, variables can be treated as exogenous (Canova & Ciccarelli, 2013). In this research, the following variables are considered exogenous: the interaction term of economic growth and economic freedom, financial institutions’ access, depth, and efficiency, as well as financial markets’ access, depth, and efficiency. The financial development index—on which the study is centered—is treated as the endogenous and dependent variable. Additionally, the growth rates of all variables have been calculated and used in the model. The study period spans from 1980 to 2021, with annual data frequency. The selected region of study includes China, South Korea, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Singapore—chosen for their notable performance in financial and economic indicators.
5. Result
Based on the model estimation results, the depth of financial institutions exerts the strongest positive impact on the financial development index in the selected countries. Following this, the efficiency of financial institutions also demonstrates a significant and positive effect on financial development throughout the study period. Moreover, given that one of the objectives of this paper is to examine the role of economic growth—mediated by economic freedom—on the financial development index, the findings indicate that lagged economic growth through the channel of economic freedom has a significant and positive effect on financial development in these countries. This result supports the empirical evidence presented in the paper, suggesting that the economic freedom strategies adopted by these countries—tailored to their specific economic development priorities—can serve as a positive contributing factor in enhancing the impact of economic growth on financial development.

Abstract There are various strategies in the field of portfolio formation. In the present study, simple (momentum and inverse) and combined (quantertum and quantrian) approaches have been used to form stock portfolios. The most important factor in the difference between these two types of portfolios is their holding period and ranking. Accordingly, in the present study, after modeling investment strategies, the change in the returns of these strategies over time was examined. Accordingly, the main goal of the present study is to model simple and mixed stock portfolios in different time periods. The present study is applied. The research period is 1390 to 1401. Data from 171 listed companies were used to estimate the model. Nonlinear Bayesian averaging approaches and panel time-varying parameter models were used to model the four stock return strategies. The results indicate that internal factors (within the company) have a positive impact on all four portfolio formation strategies, and external factors (macro factors) have a negative impact on the return of the portfolio composed of the strategies under study. Based on the results, the Quantrian approach provides higher returns for investors compared to other approaches in terms of average short-term, medium-term, and long-term coefficients. Also, based on the results, the momentum approach has been more profitable in the short term and the Quantrian approach in the medium and long term than other strategies.

Abstract The outbreak of the COVID-19 virus at the end of 2019 led to complex economic problems and affected stock market transactions in various countries. This study employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) system to investigate the Iran stock market's reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic during the period from 2019 to 2022. The study particularly focuses on the role of firm characteristics (total asset returns, liquidity volume, company size, financial leverage and social responsibility) in the relationship between Covid- 19 and stock return. The results indicate that contrary to expectations, the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive impact on the stock returns of selected companies during the study period. According to the findings, firm size did not significantly influence the relationship between stock returns and COVID-19 during the period under review, while the financial leverage of companies had a negative and significant effect on this relationship. Additionally, the findings illustrate that corporate social responsibility, total asset returns and company liquidity strengthened the positive relationship between the COVID-19 outbreak and stock returns during the period under investigation. The obtained results indicate that certain specific characteristics of companies can play a significant role in moderating the effects of global economic crises on their stock performance.

Abstract Although various studies have investigated the economic effects of money laundering, there is a lack of studies, especially in the country, on the impact of macroeconomic variables on money laundering. Therefore, in this study, the impact of negative shocks to macroeconomic variables on the volume of money laundering in Iran was investigated using the structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model during the period 1994-2023. The results showed that shocks of -10, -20 and -50 percent in real GDP growth increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 4.01, 7.66 and 13.44 percent, respectively. Also, shocks of +10, +20 and +50 percent in the inflation rate increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 3.29, 4.49 and 7.59 percent, respectively. In addition, exchange rate shocks of +10, +20, and +50 percent increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 2.09, 3.14, and 6.07 percent, respectively. Gini coefficient shocks of +10, +20, and +50 percent also increase the volume of money laundering by a maximum of 1.04, 2.01, and 5.09 percent, respectively. According to the research results, when economic growth is low and inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and income inequality are high, money laundering grows as a natural reaction of the informal market. Accordingly, simultaneous economic (inflation and currency control), social (reducing inequality and building culture), institutional (laws and supervision), and technological (artificial intelligence and blockchain) solutions were proposed.

Abstract The aim of the present study was to investigate the distributional effects of monetary policies in the Iranian economy using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In this study, the distributional effects of monetary policy were investigated in the form of designing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households in terms of liquidity constraints and liquidity non-constraints. In this regard, statistical data for the period 1990-2024 were used. The financial asset channel is considered as one of the most important channels of monetary policy transmission to the real sector of the economy. Improving the distribution of income has always been an important goal that has been considered by political and economic policymakers. The results of the estimated model indicated that the monetary policy shock led to a worsening of income distribution among households. In addition, the shock increased the value of financial assets in households without liquidity constraints, and led to a decrease in consumption and income in households with liquidity constraints due to lack of access to financial markets and financial assets. Based on these results, it can be said that inappropriate monetary policies can exacerbate class gaps. Increased liquidity without proper control increases inflation and reduces the purchasing power of low-income groups, while holders of financial and capital assets (such as real estate and stocks) benefit from increased asset prices.

Abstract Life insurance is recognized as a reliable indicator of economic development in many countries due to its essential role in ensuring financial security for households, increasing social welfare, and supporting productive investments. However, in Iran, the share of life insurance in the insurance industry portfolio is very limited, and its growth faces serious challenges. The aim of the present study is to design and explain the factors affecting the development of life insurance sales in Iran. For this purpose, first, using the meta-synthesis method, the findings of the studies were collected and categorized, and then using the three-round fuzzy Delphi technique, the opinions of insurance industry experts were extracted and a consensus was reached. The results showed that the development of life insurance sales is based on three key factors: individual factors including demographic, economic, and attitudinal characteristics of customers; insurance market factors such as sales channels, trust in the insurance company, financial sufficiency, and product innovation; and macroeconomic factors such as inflation rate, economic growth, per capita income, and unemployment level. The findings indicate that individual factors have the greatest impact on the demand side, insurance factors affect supply, and macroeconomic conditions affect both sides. Accordingly, it is recommended that insurance companies expand the share of life insurance by promoting product innovation, improving sales channels, and strengthening financial strength, while increasing customer confidence; policymakers can also provide the basis for increasing the penetration rate of life insurance in the country by controlling economic fluctuations and strengthening the insurance culture in society.