Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract In recent years, inflation in Iran has exhibited severe fluctuations and a persistently increasing trend. Consequently, economic research has focused on the relationship between inflation volatility and financial markets. As one of the most important investment instruments, stocks serve the primary goals of meeting future needs and enhancing welfare through wealth accumulation. Using monthly data from April 2011 to March 2023 (Farvardin 1390 to Esfand 1402), this study investigates the effects of inflation fluctuations on the total index and the industry index of the Tehran Stock Exchange. To this end, inflation volatility is first extracted using the long-memory FIGARCH model. Then, its impact on the aforementioned indices is estimated within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework in two separate models. The empirical findings reveal a significant negative long run relationship between inflation fluctuations and both stock market indices. Moreover, increases in the exchange rate and gold price lead to rises in the total index and the industry index, whereas an increase in the interest rate inflicts considerable damage on the stock market. Based on the results, prudent monetary policy management and control of inflationary volatility are recommended to economic authorities for improving stock market performance.

Abstract Financial processes in the economic system play a key role in the fields of management, accounting and economics by influencing the functioning of market components. This link and the existence of a relationship between the financial sector and management increase the importance of examining financial marketing approaches. In this regard, one of the reliable methods in examining previous information sources and identifying new research areas is scientometrics. This technique can provide a broad insight into financial marketing research that has not been available in the literature of this field to date. The purpose of the upcoming study is to analyze and map international scientific articles in the field of financial marketing. This study, which follows the interpretative paradigm, is a type of descriptive study that was conducted using a systematic review method and using the search terms defined in web of science in the title of the articles and published research in the period of 1945 to 2025. has been deeply investigated in the field of financial marketing. After searching the studies, the final analysis was done on 90 articles. The scientific analysis of the selected articles showed that the most researches in this field were related to the years 2010 and later, and especially the years 2020 to today. In terms of the key words used, five main clusters were identified in this field and less worked areas and research deficiencies in the field of financial marketing were also identified.

Abstract این پژوهش با هدف بررسی اثر سیاست‌های پولی و اعتباری بر متغیرهای کلان و مالی در اقتصاد ایران، با استفاده از یک مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE) توسعه‌یافته مبتنی بر چارچوب گرتلر و کارادی (2011) همراه با تعبیه سازوکار حباب عقلایی قیمت دارایی انجام شده است. کالیبراسیون مدل با استفاده از داده‌های فصلی اقتصاد ایران در دوره زمانی گسترده صورت گرفته و نتایج شبیه‌سازی و تجزیه واریانس یافته‌های مهمی را به دست داده است.
نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که شوک کیفیت سرمایه، نقش غالب و تعیین‌کننده‌ای در تبیین نوسانات متغیرهای کلان و مالی اقتصاد ایران دارد. این شوک به‌تنهایی بخش عمده‌ای از نوسانات تولید کل، خالص ثروت واسطه‌های مالی، اهرم مالی، سرمایه‌گذاری، تورم، قیمت بازاری سرمایه، بازده سرمایه، رشد اعتبارات و پریمیوم مالی را توضیح می‌دهد. این یافته بیانگر آن است که پویایی‌های اقتصاد ایران عمدتاً تحت سلطه کانال‌های مالی، وضعیت ترازنامه واسطه‌های مالی و بازدهی سرمایه قرار دارد و شوک‌های سنتی طرف عرضه نقش نسبتاً محدودی در نوسانات اقتصادی ایفا می‌کنند.

Abstract In a rational economy, stock price trends co-move with subjective cash flow expectations; however, if investors exhibit behavioral biases, stock price trends may instead co-move with subjective discount rate expectations. Therefore, this study investigates, for the first time, the comovement of stock prices in the Iranian stock market with subjective cash flow expectations, comparing it with subjective discount rate expectations. To this end, data were collected from the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Rahavard Novin database, and the analysts' consensus system over the period from 2011 to 2023. Furthermore, subjective cash flow growth expectations (SCF) and subjective discount rate expectations (SDR) were predicted using the Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Inputs (NNARX) model, and its predictive performance was compared with that of the traditional Vector Autoregression (VAR), Implied Cost of Capital (ICC), and Analyst Forecast Revision (RAF) models. Finally, the comovement of stock prices with the subjective expectations derived from the VAR, ICC, RAF, and NNARX models was examined. The results demonstrate that the NNARX model outperforms the RAF model, which in turn outperforms the ICC model, followed by the VAR model, in predicting SCF and SDR. Moreover, contrary to expectations, the covariance between the P/E ratio and SCF was negative, while the covariance between the P/E ratio and SDR was positive. This indicates an inefficient stock valuation pattern in the Iranian stock market, which can be attributed to economic sanctions, exchange rate fluctuations, and investors' behavioral biases.

Abstract Abstract:
In today's world, climate change and the environmental consequences of greenhouse gas emissions represent one of the most critical global challenges. Financial development, as a key factor, can play a significant role in reducing these emissions and serve as a powerful tool to combat climate change and mitigate adverse environmental effects. The substantial increase in energy consumption has led to environmental degradation in BRICS countries—economies that have experienced rapid industrial growth due to their strong economic structures. This study aims to investigate the relationship between financial development and CO₂ emissions in BRICS countries using panel regression over the period 1990–2023. The findings indicate that financial development (FE), foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and industrialization have a positive and significant relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. This suggests that the current trajectory of financial development and investment attraction in these countries, driven by a focus on polluting industries, has exacerbated emissions. In contrast, energy consumption exhibits a negative and significant impact on emissions. The effects of inflation and innovation on emissions were not statistically significant. Accordingly, it is recommended that BRICS countries reform their financial policies and revise their investment attraction models toward green development and clean technologies. Such measures can help mitigate further environmental degradation while maintaining economic growth.

Abstract Governments are constantly influenced by political parties with differing orientations, which creates the potential for political misuse of monetary policy. Such interference can disrupt monetary equilibrium, harm the real sector of the economy, and ultimately lead to economic fluctuations. Consequently, central bank independence is widely recognized in the economic literature as one of the most important institutional tools for controlling inflation. This study investigates the impact of central bank independence on inflation in selected oil-exporting countries over the period 2000–2023, while considering the role of institutional factors and financial systems. To address potential endogeneity concerns, the two-stage least squares (2SLS) method is employed. The findings indicate that central bank independence and institutional quality play a pivotal role in reducing inflation; however, the interaction between institutional and financial variables can generate complex and sometimes nonlinear effects. Accordingly, strengthening the practical and legal independence of central banks is recommended to curb inflation and enhance macroeconomic stability.

Abstract OPEC countries face a dual challenge of sustaining oil-led economic growth while mitigating environmental degradation. This study investigates the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policies on per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 15 OPEC member states over the period 1995–2024. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) framework, the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator was applied after confirming variables’ stationarity, cross-sectional dependence, and panel cointegration. The short-run empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic policy instruments do not exert a statistically significant impact on carbon emissions; instead, short-term emissions are primarily driven by structural factors such as population growth and per capita income. In the long run, however, government expenditures (fiscal expansion) and exchange rates exhibit a significant mitigating effect on CO2emissions. Conversely, monetary expansion (money supply) and population size act as key drivers of environmental degradation in the long run. Additionally, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated for the sampled countries. The error correction term (ECM=-0.12) indicates a relatively slow adjustment rate toward the long-run equilibrium. Policy implications suggest that OPEC policymakers should align monetary and fiscal frameworks by implementing green budgeting, directing bank credit toward low-carbon projects, and regulating liquidity to facilitate the energy transition.

Abstract This paper undertakes a rigorous empirical analysis of the underpricing and long-run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this context, the underpricing behavior is systematically compared based on industry sector and corporate ownership structure. Subsequently, employing OLS regression models, seven distinct empirical specifications are meticulously designed and estimated in a progressive, stepwise manner. These models comprise a baseline specification, an earnings-management effect model, the core research framework, an extended model incorporating a state-ownership variable, a state-ownership moderation effect model, and two robustness-test models utilizing alternative proxy indicators for earnings management.
The statistical population of this study encompasses all firms that conducted IPOs on the TSE, with the sample period spanning initial public offerings from 2011 through 2023. An initial inspection of the data revealed that underpricing is more pronounced in manufacturing and extractive enterprises relative to their service and financial counterparts, and is marginally higher, on average, in state-owned firms compared to non-state-owned entities.
The results demonstrate that offering type, earnings management, firm size, profitability, cash ratio, asset growth, long-term holding period returns, and the specific year of the IPO rank among the most critical determinants of IPO underpricing. Conversely, sales growth and the current ratio did not yield statistically significant coefficients across the majority of the estimated models. Furthermore, the findings indicate that state ownership, in isolation, does not exert a direct impact on underpricing; however, through its interaction effect, it significantly moderates the relationship between earnings management and IPO underpricing.

Abstract The present study provides new insights into the relationship between monetary policy and uncertainty in the Iranian economy for the monthly period from April 2010 to March 2024. For this purpose, first, the uncertainty of the economy as a whole is calculated with a stochastic volatility model based on conditional fluctuations of the variables of the inflation rate, exchange rate, and production growth rate. Wavelets are then used to examine how the relationship changes over time and at different frequencies. The key findings of this analysis showed that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran significantly depends on the time horizon. In the short term (2-12 months), a positive and significant regression coefficient of 0.32 was observed, indicating a positive and significant relationship between increased liquidity and economic uncertainty. This relationship is weaker but still significant in the medium term (1-3 years) with a coefficient of 0.18 and appears stronger than other horizons in the long term (more than 3 years) with a coefficient of 0.41. These findings are consistent with theories of structural inflation in developing economies, which show that in these economies, expansionary monetary policies are associated with increased economic uncertainty not only in the short run but also in the long run. Furthermore, the results indicate that the relationship between monetary policy and economic uncertainty in Iran strongly depends on economic and political conditions. Under sanctions, this relationship is stronger and more stable. The findings emphasize that the causality and nature of the relationship between liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainty vary over time and at different frequencies.

Abstract The structural dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues, along with exposure to international sanctions and severe exchange rate fluctuations, has intensified instability and invisible linkages among its macro markets. This study aims to analyze the dynamic and asymmetric transmission of volatility among three markets—monetary base, oil prices, and exchange rates—using the advanced Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH) model over the quarterly period from 1991 to 2023. To accommodate extreme shocks and asymmetric effects, the Student's t-distribution and the GJR-GARCH specification are employed.
The findings reveal a very strong and stable network of volatility spillovers among these three markets, with their dependence structure exhibiting high persistence. At the intra-market level, negative exchange rate shocks have a far stronger impact on market volatility than positive shocks, whereas positive oil price shocks increase volatility, indicating an oil revenue-liquidity mechanism. Structural shocks resulting from severe sanctions have significantly altered the pattern of these spillovers. Meanwhile, the instantaneous and contemporaneous correlations among the markets are weak and insignificant, which may reflect extensive policy interventions and non-price mechanisms in the Iranian economy.
These results confirm the existence of a deep non-linear linkage through the risk channel, despite the absence of a simple linear relationship between returns. Based on the findings, operational policy solutions such as establishing an exchange rate stabilization fund with an oil-linked rule and implementing a conditional rule for managing the monetary base in response to exchange rate shocks are proposed.

Abstract Abstract
Gasoline price reform in Iran, due to its economic, political, and social dimensions, has always been one of the most challenging economic policies. The aim of this study is to identify the best scenario for gasoline price reform to minimize the negative effects on gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and employment in Iran. For this purpose, 18 different scenarios were simulated in three dimensions: the type of subsidy elimination (over three-, five-, and ten-year periods), the type of support compensation (cash or quota), and the level of support coverage (all deciles, low- and middle-income deciles, and only low-income deciles) using the Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (RDCGE) model and data from the 2016 Social Accounting Matrix of the Central Bank of Iran. The results showed that the optimal scenario is the gradual elimination of gasoline subsidies over a ten-year period (bringing the price from $0.05 to $1 per liter), cash support compensation (equivalent to a monthly quota of 60 liters of gasoline), and support coverage for low- and middle-income deciles. In this scenario, the gasoline price increases by 34.93 percent annually, and not only do production, investment, and employment not decrease, but they increase by 2.18, 1.02, and 1.24 percent, respectively. Sensitivity analysis regarding key model parameters confirmed the robustness of the results. The findings indicate that the speed of subsidy elimination alone is not sufficient; rather, the method of support compensation and precise targeting of deciles play a pivotal role in the policy's success.

Abstract This article, entitled “Investigating the Impact of Business Cycles on Stock Market Returns with Emphasis on the Automotive Group Using a Time-Varying Coefficients Approach and the TVP-VAR Model,” examines the dynamic relationship between business cycles (periods of economic boom and recession) and the returns of automotive group stocks in the Iranian economy. Given the severe economic fluctuations in Iran driven by sanctions, expansionary monetary policies, chronic inflation, and exchange-rate jumps, the need to investigate these relationships in a time-varying manner has become increasingly evident. To test the hypotheses, time-series data covering the solar years 1380 to 1404 and a Bayesian TVP-VAR model were employed. Key variables included automotive group stock returns, liquidity growth, inflation, the exchange rate, the interest rate, trading volume, and business-cycle indicators. The results showed that the effect of liquidity growth on automotive group returns is predominantly positive but unstable and is stronger during boom periods. Inflation exerts a significant and increasing negative impact that intensifies during deep recessions. Exchange-rate shocks also produce dual (both positive and negative) responses. By presenting impulse-response functions and time-varying coefficients, the TVP-VAR model clearly revealed nonlinear patterns that depend on the business cycle.

Abstract Currently, the Iranian economy is facing significant challenges due to uncertainties arising from severe exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, implementing appropriate monetary policies may lead to a reduction in uncertainties and their consequences in the Iranian economy. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary policy on reducing economic uncertainty arising from exchange rate fluctuations in high and low exchange rate regimes with monthly data from April 2012 to March 2013 using a threshold approach. The results showed that contractionary monetary policy using the interbank interest rate instrument, especially in a high exchange rate regime, significantly reduces economic uncertainties caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Threshold regression estimation showed that expansionary monetary policy (by increasing liquidity) does not have a significant effect on uncertainty in low exchange rate conditions, but it increases uncertainty in high exchange rate conditions. The results of this study emphasize that rising inflation and gold prices are two important factors in increasing economic uncertainties caused by exchange rate instability. Policy implications of this study may contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy tools in different exchange rate regimes in reducing economic uncertainties.

Abstract This study examines the impact of corporate governance quality on the resilience of firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange against economic shocks. Using a balanced panel dataset of 150 companies over the period 2011–2024 — encompassing shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, severe exchange rate fluctuations, and sanctions — and employing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address endogeneity and dynamic effects, the results indicate that board independence and the overall corporate governance score have a significant positive effect on a composite resilience index (comprising recovery speed, profitability volatility, and bankruptcy probability). Conversely, high ownership concentration and high financial leverage exert a significant negative effect on resilience. The economic crisis index also directly reduces resilience; however, strong corporate governance substantially moderates this negative effect. The primary contribution of this study lies in the multidimensional measurement of corporate resilience and the examination of corporate governance mechanisms in reducing the vulnerability of Iranian firms to economic shocks. An additional innovation is the application of the GMM model within the context of Iran’s emerging market, combined with a multidimensional resilience index. The findings emphasize that strengthening corporate governance mechanisms can serve as a key strategy for enhancing firms’ resistance to economic shocks.

Abstract This study examines the effect of banking system financial soundness on inflation stability, with an emphasis on the moderating role of monetary policy, in 10 high-inflation countries over the period 2000–2025. The main objective is to investigate whether the financial soundness of banks affects inflation stability and whether the magnitude of this effect is influenced by the stance of monetary policy. For this purpose, inflation stability is considered the dependent variable, while the financial soundness index, monetary policy index, and the interaction between these two variables are considered the main explanatory variables. In addition, the exchange rate, government size, fiscal deficit, economic growth, trade openness, and domestic credit to the private sector are included as control variables. Given the presence of heterogeneity, outliers, and severe inflationary shocks in the countries under investigation, the model is estimated using robust regression. The results show that the financial soundness index, monetary policy, and the interaction term between financial soundness and monetary policy are statistically significant at the 5% level. In addition, the exchange rate, government size, fiscal deficit, economic growth, and private sector credit have significant effects, whereas the effect of trade openness is statistically insignificant. The findings indicate that the effect of financial soundness on inflation stability depends on monetary policy conditions.

Abstract The aim of this paper was to examine the impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction in developing countries. Financial inclusion is the access and use of affordable and quality financial products and services by individuals and firms, including payments, bank accounts, credit, and insurance, that are provided in a sustainable and responsible manner. On the other hand, unequal access to financial resources can be a significant barrier to accessing and using economic opportunities and reduce entrepreneurial activity, which is an important and decisive factor in economic success. In fact, easy access and cost-free use of financial services can help the poor to build capital and assets so that they can better protect themselves in adverse economic conditions. This study used statistical data from 43 developing countries for the period 2004-2025 and the panel vector autoregression method. The results of this study showed that the shock from the financial inclusion index in developing countries led to an improvement in income distribution and a reduction in poverty and inequality. In addition, the model also showed that the shock from the financial inclusion index led to an improvement in income distribution, although the effect of this shock was weak in developing countries.

Abstract The primary objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the interrelationships among social and non-market strategy, market strategy, organizational resilience, organizational commitment, corporate reputation, shareholder performance, and financial performance within small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) situated in the Shamsabad Industrial Town, Tehran. To this end, data derived from 433 validated questionnaires were analyzed utilizing partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM).
The most pivotal finding of this research is that social and non-market strategy exerts a positive and significant effect on market strategy, organizational resilience, organizational commitment, corporate reputation, and shareholder performance; however, its direct influence on corporate financial performance is negative and statistically significant. This finding bears considerable managerial significance, as it indicates that the implementation of social and non-market strategies imposes immediate costs upon the firm—such as social responsibility expenditures, maintaining external institutional relations, stakeholder engagement, and legitimizing actions—which, while generating no direct financial returns in the short term, directly erode profitability.
Consequently, the genuine value of social and non-market strategies lies not in their immediate financial payoffs, but rather in their capacity to cultivate organizational capabilities, foster intangible assets, and secure sustainable competitive advantage, which ultimately translate into enhanced shareholder and financial performance. In sum, while social and non-market strategy exhibits a direct negative effect on financial performance, its total effect is positive; this is attributable to the fact that the initial outlays are progressively offset by superior reputation, heightened resilience, strengthened organizational commitment, refined market strategy, and elevated shareholder performance.

Abstract Banking facilities in developing countries play a pivotal role in financing and economic growth. Additionally, the strategic management of working capital is crucial for reducing credit risk and enhancing financial flexibility. While credit facilities are vital to the economy, they require effective risk management. Customer evaluation, portfolio monitoring, and managing systematic risks and non-performing loans are essential for maintaining financial stability.This study utilizes the PMG/ARDL model to examine the impact of working capital facilities on credit risk at Bank Melli Iran, seeking to determine whether these facilities influence credit risk and if proper management can mitigate such risks. The research analyzed monthly data from 35 regional management offices and ten independent branches of Melli Bank of Iran over 26 months (from April 2022 to May 2024). Working capital facilities were aggregated from data in the industrial, mining, and agricultural sectors, and credit risk was calculated by weighting three categories of non-performing loans (overdue, past due, and doubtful receivables). The stationarity analysis showed that both variables are stationary at the level. The findings indicate that the coefficient of the impact of working capital facilities on credit risk is significant. Therefore, an increase in working capital facilities, on average and assuming other conditions remain constant, reduces credit risk and decreases loan defaults.

Abstract In today's era, the wheels of Iran's economy revolve around banks, and this clearly shows the key role of banks in providing financial resources for economic enterprises. The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a policy model for the transparency of resource allocation in the banking system of Iran. The inductive research approach is based on data theory. The statistical population was experts and policy makers of the banking system and management professors, who were selected as the sample size using the saturation principle and the snowball sampling method. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to collect data. Reliability was confirmed using the agreement coefficient of two coders and the Kappa coefficient, whose value was 0.742. Max Kyoda software was used for data analysis. The results included 173 open codes in 15 components and 6 categories. 3 components and 55 open codes for causal factors, 2 components and 29 open codes for the central category, 4 components and 39 open codes for the strategy category, 2 components and 19 open codes for the consequences category, 2 components and 10 open codes for the context category, and 2 components and 21 open codes for the intervention category. It was Gerha. Based on the results, it is very important to design metrics and indicators related to resource allocation transparency in the banking system of Iran.

Abstract The rapid rise of digital currencies, most notably Bitcoin, has fundamentally reshaped global commerce, offering decentralized, secure, and efficient mechanisms for conducting financial transactions. This study investigates the specific impact of Bitcoin on e-commerce in Iran, focusing on key perceived factors such as trust and cybersecurity, and potential of e-commerce. The research aims to explore how Bitcoin's decentralized nature influences the perceived reliability of transactions, the perceived risks associated with cybersecurity, and the perceived potentials of e-commerce in Iran.
This study adopts a mixed-method approach, utilizing both quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the Iranian e-commerce and cryptocurrency sectors. Over 100 participants actively involved in digital commerce were surveyed, with data analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess the relationships between Bitcoin adoption and perceived trust, security, potential of e-commerce. Findings reveal that not only using Bitcoin presents significant opportunities for enhancing trust and improving transaction efficiency, but also provides new potentials in terms of perceived cybersecurity and traditional e-commerce. These insights are crucial for businesses and policymakers in Iran seeking to navigate the complexities of integrating Bitcoin into the country’s burgeoning e-commerce sector.

Abstract Given the banking system's position in the country's economic system and banks' significant contribution to attracting financial resources, we expect the banking system's performance to significantly impact the economy. If the attraction of financial resources by banks leads to the allocation of resources to strengthen industry and production, it can contribute to economic prosperity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to validate the policy-making model of transparency in the allocation of banking resources in Iranian knowledge-based companies. The research strategy is survey, and the research method is quantitative. The statistical population of the research was 380 managers, vice presidents, and all officials of knowledge-based companies located in the Mashhad Science and Technology Park, of which 190 were selected as a statistical sample using a stratified random method. The research tool includes a researcher-made questionnaire with 130 items. The partial least squares approach was used to analyze the data using PLS software. The research findings in the model in question include 6 categories in 15 components: economic, political, and legal independence; effectiveness in information quality and effectiveness in information access; dynamic monitoring; use of basic and applied systems; transparent allocation based on assets and investments; transparent allocation of resources based on alternative debt; prosperity of the knowledge-based economy; employment development; supportive policies; knowledge-based economy; challenges in implementing policymaking; and challenges of knowledge-based companies. The data results showed that the aforementioned model has the necessary validity. The findings of this study emphasize that identifying factors that enhance transparency in the allocation of Iranian banking resources can be useful in the process of improving the position of knowledge-based companies.

Abstract In different production sectors, in addition to the internal influencing components, there are some external influencing components, the occurrence of a shock in them can lead to an increase in uncertainty in the production of said sectors. Exchange rate and oil price are among these things for all countries. And the effect of the price of oil for the exporting and importing countries of this type of energy is not the same and will be different. There are not many studies on the effect of these factors on the production of different economic sectors of oil exporting countries, and the direction of the effect of this component is not clear for these countries. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of analyzing the impact of oil shocks and exchange rate fluctuations on the economic growth of industry, agriculture and services in Iran using the ARDL model for the seasonal period from 2010 to 2021. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and library and documentary research method. The website of Iran Statistics Center and Central Bank was used to collect information. The results of this research show that for the agricultural sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations in the short term is positive and significant, but the effect of oil shock is not significant. In the industry and mining sector, oil price shock has a significant and positive effect among the studied variables. Meanwhile, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the production of this sector is not significant. For the service sector, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations and oil shock is not significant and interpretable. For the industry and mining sector, among the examined variables, in the long term, only the growth of oil prices at the level of 10% is significant and positive. The effect of the increase in the price of oil is also positive on the production value of the industry and mining sector and can lead to an increase of 0.16% in this variable.
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Abstract The interaction between the stock market and the elements of the economic system has always been one of the important issues in Iran's economy On the other hand, considering that Iran is an oil exporting country, oil price changes have always been one of the important factors of economic fluctuations in Iran. These fluctuations affect the financial markets, especially the stock market. The main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations and economic policy uncertainty on stock returns in Iran. In this research, in order to investigate the relationships between variables, seasonal data during the period from 1392:1 to 1400:4 and the Autoregressive distributed lag model have been used. The research findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on stock returns in Iran. Also, the two variables of oil price fluctuations and real effective exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with stock returns in Iran. On the other hand, economic policy uncertainty, interest rate and industrial production index have a negative and significant relationship with stock returns in Iran. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the dependence of the country's budget on oil revenues, and also, the stock exchange organization should take the necessary measures to reduce the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the overall index of the stock exchange.

Abstract This paper tried to study the effect of credit crunch on the stagnation of industrial sector and their bilateral relationship. In addition, the role of good governance on the intensity of the relationship between these two will be examined. For this purpose, the MS-IVAR model is used. The credit crunch index is calculated based on the maximum available information and its main determinants. Data were collected with annual frequency (1996- 2020) from the most recent statistics published by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and World Bank website. The results showed that credit crunch had a positive significant effect on the stagnation of industrial sector. In addition, there is an intensified relationship between these variables. However, good governance index influence can significantly reduce the severity of effect of credit crunch, as demonstrated through interactive analysis. Therefore, promoting good governance can be mentioned as a solution to compensate for the negative effect of credit crunch on the stagnation of industrial sector

Abstract Financial stability refers to a situation where the financial system consisting of intermediaries, markets and market instruments and infrastructure are able to withstand shocks, as a result of which the possibility of disruption in the mediation process is reduced. The purpose of this research is to identify the determinants of financial stability, to examine their impact with an emphasis on banking industry level factors, and to provide indications for improving and strengthening financial stability. The statistical population of the current research is the collection of banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, which were included in the list of banks and financial and credit institutions of the stock exchange from 1390 to 1397, and 12 banks were selected as a sample using a systematic elimination sampling strategy. In this research, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to estimate the research model. The results obtained from the research show that competition and concentration have an inverse relationship and financial inclusion has a two-way effect on financial stability.