Monetary & Financial Economics

Abstract  
1- INTRODUCTION
Monetary policy, as one of the most important economic tools that affects various economic variables through different channels and with different speed and intensity, has always been the attention of the responsible authorities of countries, especially developing countries like Iran. On the other hand, banks, as financial and credit institutions that have a special place in the country's economy, play a decisive role in the circulation of money and society's wealth. Therefore, examining the impact of monetary policy shocks on the health of Iran's banking system, which is done through the exchange rate channel, is particularly important and is the main goal of this research. Therefore, by using 96 variables of seasonal time series data affecting the bank's profitability index, which is one of the most important indicators of measuring and judging the health of the banking system during the period of 1401:4-1378:1 and using the experimental model of the factor- Added (FAVAR), we investigate the effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system in Iran. The results show the direct effect of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel on the growth rate of bank network deposits and consequently the power to grant facilities, the amount of bank operating income and the growth rate of bank claims, which from this point of view is one of the most important indicators of the health of the system. A bank that has a profitability index has a negative and significant effect. On the other hand, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the amount of claims in the bank.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Anzwaini et al. (2012) conducted a study aimed at the impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper examines the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices using a standard VAR system, which is commonly used in analyzing the effects of monetary policy shocks.
Jordo et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of whether SVARs identify unconventional monetary policy shocks? they did. We show that the used identification schemes have not been able to recover real unconventional monetary policy shocks in the Eurozone. In their identification schemes, information on the size of the central bank's balance sheet is key to distinguishing monetary policy shocks from other shocks that reduce financial market stress.
Niazi Mohseni et al. (2019) conducted a study with the aim of investigating the effect of monetary policy shocks and oil revenues on inflation and economic growth in Iran. In this study, the data of the explained variables were used for the period of 1357 to 1397. Data analysis was done using STATA software. The results of this study showed that the increase in the bank interest rate has reduced the economic growth rate for at least two years after the application of the shock, and after that the effect of the shock tends to zero.
Asefi et al. (2021) conducted a study on the effect of monetary policy through the asset price channel on financial development. In this study, using seasonal time series data of 110 economic variables in the period of 1370-1390 and self-explanatory model A generalized factor (FAVAR), the impact of monetary policies has been evaluated through the channel of housing and stock prices. The results of the impulse response functions indicate that the housing price channel has increased production in the medium and long term, but it has also had significant inflationary effects in the short and medium term.
 
3- METHODOLOGY
FAVAR model introduced by Bernanke et al. (2005) is a combination of VAR model and factor analysis model. Composite dynamics (Yt, Ft) should be assumed as equation 1.
According to the statistical limitations in Iran, the time period investigated in this data research will be the years 2012-2021 and the research variables include three categories:
Table 1: Introduction of Xt vector variables, Yt vector exogenous variables and F vector hidden factors




Brief description of the variable


 


Brief description of the variable


 




Rial long term deposit


LDR


Long-term currency deposit


LDF




Rial short term deposit


SDR


Short term currency deposit


SDF




riyal current deposits


DDR


Currency current deposits


DDF




Lending


loan


Claims of non-governmental entities


DI




Government claims to the bank


Dig


exchange rate


EXCH




Claims of other banks and financial institutions to the bank


Dib


Income from granting facilities


Inl




Income from currency exchange


Bc


Other variables as hidden factors


بردار




 
The equation can be written as follows using model variables:
 
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results obtained from the findings show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and as a result the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims which as a result It has an impact on one of the most important indicators of the health of the banking system, which is the profitability index, and this impact is negative and significant. Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
Considering the importance of the banking sector, in this study, using the FAVAR model, the impact of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the health of the banking system of Iran during the years 2012-2021 was investigated.
At the beginning, the unit root test was used to measure the significance of the variables using Stata software, and all the variables were at the significance level.
In the following, with the help of Schwarz-Baysin, Akaik and Hanan-Quinn criteria, as well as the maximum likelihood statistic, the optimal interval is determined, and since these criteria do not yield the same results, the AIC criterion is used to determine the optimal interval length. and the obtained optimal interval length is specified as one. According to the obtained results, using the FAVAR model is very suitable for measuring the relationships between variables. The results of the model estimation results show that the monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and consequently the power to grant facilities and the amount of non-current bank claims, which is one of the most important the health indicators of the banking system, which is the profitability index, are effective. For this reason, fluctuations caused by monetary policy shocks in the exchange rate, as one of the most important factors affecting the health of the banking system, will have a negative and significant impact.
Also, the effect of monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel on the amount of deposit attraction (current, short-term, long-term Rial and foreign currency deposits) and the amount of power to grant facilities and the bank's operating income (income from granting facilities, income from of foreign exchange) is negative and significant and has a positive and significant effect on the number of claims in the bank

Abstract The amount of power of the CEO for macro decisions of an organization can have a direct impact on its performance. The purpose of this research is to investigate the moderating effect of the CEO's power on the relationship between the fragility of the banking system and interest rate divergence. To collect data, the reports of the board of directors of banks and credit institutions on the website of Tehran Stock Exchange Company and their financial statements were used with the help of Steta software. The statistical population of this research includes 30 banks and credit institutions admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange on an annual basis in the period of 2017-2022. Based on the results of the first model, the fragility intensity coefficient of the banking system has a significant positive effect on the interest rate divergence. In the second model, the coefficient of fragility of the banking system on interest rate divergence decreased when the moderating variable of CEO power was added. In the third model, when the moderating variable of the CEO's power and the interaction effect of the CEO's power on the fragility of the banking system were added, the intensity of the fragility of the banking system on the interest rate divergence decreased. The research results indicate that the CEO's power reduces the effect of bank fragility on interest rate divergence.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Company executives are trying to take steps to reduce their income tax, and one of the measures that may be taken to reduce taxes payable and increase post-tax revenue is to use a solution called tax avoidance. For this reason, tax avoidance creates a cloud of information environment and creates information asymmetries related to the company's reputation among investors. In other words, tax avoidance causes asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affects capital costs. So reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting. Tax avoidance disrupts the information environment and creates information asymmetries related to the company's reputation among investors. Therefore, it is expected that the relationship between firm reputation and implicit cost of capital is different in companies that use tax avoidance. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the moderating role of tax avoidance on the relationship between firm reputation and implicit cost of capital.     2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK From the following two perspectives, tax avoidance as a moderating role is expected to affect the relationship between firm credit and the implicit cost of capital. First, a company's reputation is affected by tax planning, and tax avoidance is likely to negatively affect a company's reputation. When examination how tax avoidance affects the relationship between a firm's reputation and the cost of capital, tax avoidance interferes with the information environment and asymmetry of investors. Second, reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting. In the case of tax avoidance, financial reporting is possible, even if the quality of accounting information is unclear. Therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. 3- METHODOLOGY The statistical sample of the research includes 120 companies listed on the Tehran stock exchange, which has been studied during the years 1392 to 1398. the dependent variable of research is the implicit cost of capital and the independent variable is company reputation and the moderator variable isf tax avoidance. in this research, in order to collect data and information, the library method has been used. the information required by the companies has also been collected through the new rahavard software, the official website of the stock exchange organization and the reports of the board of directors. finally, the data were prepared by using excel software and then final analysis was performed by using ives software. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION Findings show that there is a negative and significant relationship between company reputation with implicit cost of capital and tax avoidance with implicit cost of capital. also, tax avoidance as a moderator affects the relationship between corporate reputation and the implicit cost of corporate capital. also, research findings show that more famous companies have lower capital costs, because high reputation indicates better company quality, proper transfer of competencies and doing business in accordance with the interests of shareholders. the company's reputation is affected by tax planning. in other words, when a company becomes involved in tax avoidance, it has a negative impact on the company's reputation. therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS It can be said that the implicit cost of capital plays a key role in managers' decisions. in fact, without knowing the cost of capital, the company can not decide what tools to use to raise the funds needed for its investments, and because of resource constraints, economic units should choose a combination of financial resources. to this end, managers, as representatives of shareholders and stakeholders, should try to regulate the capital structure of the company in such a way that the implicit cost of the company's capital is minimal and as a result, the company's reputation and shareholder wealth are lost. reputable companies are more inclined to reduce the implicit cost of capital, because reputation plays an important role in determining behavior, and by increasing the company's reputation, the firm's stability increases and sustainable management is possible. the effective tax rate has a positive and significant relationship with the cost of the company's capital. the reason for this can be said that managers pay more attention to tax reduction of financial statements, which in most listed companies, tax avoidance is done through tax rates. the company's reputation is affected by tax planning. in other words, when a company becomes involved in tax avoidance, it has a negative impact on the company's reputation. therefore, tax avoidance is expected to cause asymmetry in corporate reputation information and affect capital costs. hence, reputable companies strive to provide high quality financial reporting.

Abstract   1- INTRODUCTION The effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate in the Dornbusch’s point of view is that unpredictable changes in the money supply play a major role in exchange rate fluctuations. In a fixed exchange rate system, keeping the country's currency stable against foreign currency stabilizes a country's currency and provides grounds for increasing the credibility of policy makers; at the same time, the floating currency system provides the basis for removing the effects of external shocks from the economy. In addition, the use of a fixed exchange rate system has reduced the uncertainty of the real sectors of the economy, and this issue can improve international trade and domestic investment. However, the use of a floating exchange rate system can lead to the independence of monetary policy in the face of shocks and can be considered as a tool to stabilize the economy in times of business cycles.   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK The theory of exchange rate overshooting was proposed for the first time by Dornbusch in 1976. If the economy is continuously exposed to unexpected monetary expansion, the exchange rate will exceed its long-term trend in the short term and return to its long-term level in the long term. The overshooting in the exchange rate is a short-term phenomenon that is formed due to the price sticky in the short term and the high adjustment speed in the financial market and the slow adjustment in the real sector of the economy. The dominant core of monetary systems is the use of a "nominal anchor". The nominal anchor is a variable that is used to achieve the goal of monetary policy, and the purpose of its authority is to adjust inflationary expectations and commit the monetary authorities to achieve the declared goals. The innovation of the present study compared to the previous studies is the use of a dynamic approach as well as the examination of the exchange rate jump in the conditions of a stable and floating exchange rate system, which has been less considered in previous studies.   3- METHODOLOGY The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting in the Iranian economy. In order to test the experimental model of the research, the data of the period 1989-2020 based on the frequency of seasonal data and the generalized moment method (GMM) were used. Based on this, in the form of two stable and floating exchange systems, the rate of jump and deviation in the exchange rate has been calculated by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the effect of monetary policy and macro variables on the exchange rate overshooting has been calculated.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The results showed that the monetary policy leads to an overshooting in the exchange rate and creating a deviation in the exchange rate, and this issue has been more severe in the floating exchange rate system compared to the fixed exchange rate system. Also, the results showed that the production gap had a significant effect on reducing the deviation of the real exchange rate. On the other hand, based on the estimated coefficient, it was observed that the deviation of the inflation rate leads to an increasingly deviation of the real exchange rate.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS Since the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate is positive, with an expansionary monetary policy, the exchange rate increases, which means the value of the national currency decreases. Therefore, in order to reduce the negative effects of monetary policy on the value of the national currency, it is suggested that appropriate policies and executive tools be designed and implemented by the government so that with proper management, it can be placed on the path of economic activities in the society. There is a need for monetary policy stability, which itself requires the existence of an independent central bank.

Abstract This study investigates the impact of fiscal policy shocks on financial stability and household behavior within the framework of a small open economy. Given the structural fragility of Iran's economy in the face of fiscal volatility, the primary aim is to analyze the dynamic direct and indirect effects of increased taxation on output, consumption, exchange rates, inflation, and the budget deficit. For this purpose, a calibrated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Iranian economy is employed. Oil revenues and sanctions are incorporated into the model as exogenous shocks. The model, comprising 41 parameters, was simulated over 100 periods, and both impulse responses and impulse response functions were generated. The results indicate that monetary shocks lead to an increase in the interest rate and a decrease in inflation, whereas tax shocks increase consumption and reduce labor supply. Oil and sanction shocks have limited effects on consumption but exacerbate financial instability. A diagnostic test reveals negligible estimation error; however, issues related to data scaling are notable. It is recommended that empirical validation be conducted using Iranian data, alongside more precise modeling of exchange rate dynamics, to strengthen policy recommendations.

Abstract Extended abstract
1- INTRODUCTION
Financial institutions play a crucial role in capital accumulation and financial development. These institutions by mobilization of savings; facilitation of trade, diversification and pooling of risks; monitoring of firms and exerting corporate governance; and facilitating exchange play an important role in achieving economic growth. In many empirical studies, the relationship between economic growth and financial development has been considered, and most researchers have identified the accumulation of physical and human capital and total productivity growth as the main channels for the impact of financial development on economic growth (Levine, 1997; Duramany-Lakkoh, 2020).
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Empirical studies show that the government spending has traditionally been considered a counterproductive policy tool for stimulating credit. Standard Keynesian and neoclassical theories express that an increase in government spending raises interest rates, thereby lowering private-sector investment. But there is the number of evidence to support the notion that government spending makes it stronger credit markets (Murphy & Walsh, 2018). In contrast, growing evidence from the United States and other advanced economies suggests that government spending could lower long-term interest rates (Miranda-Pinto et al, 2019). These studies indicate a gap in economists' understanding of the relationship between financial stimulus and credit markets.
Also, Nanforosh & Dizaji (2016) show that government spending has a negative and significant impact on financial development, as well as trade, financial globalization and the quality index of legal institutions have a positive impact on financial development.
3- METHODOLOGY    
Considering symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran Using annual data over the period 1973-2017. That, the Johansen-Jocilus method was used to investigate the symmetric effects and the auto-regressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was used to investigate the asymmetric effects. In order to determine asymmetric pass-through of openness and government spending to financial development, we follow the approach of Shin et al. (2014). This approach requires the decomposition of the variable of interest. In this case, we decompose the LTARDE and LGOV variables into positive and negative sub-variables. The partial sums of positive and negative changes in openness are given by  and  , also, partial sums of positive and negative changes in government spending    and . where LCREDIT is defined as financial development, LTRADE is degree of openness, LGOV is government spending and LCP is inflation.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
In time-series analyzes, before considering the model's estimation, it is necessary to test the statics variables of the research. ADF test results show that (LGOV⁺)  and LTRADE variables is integrated at order zero I(0) and other variables are not stationary at the level. Also, PP test results show that (LGOV⁺) variables is integrated at order zero I(0) and other variables are not stationary at the level (table 1). Therefore, their first-order difference should be used in the Johansen-Jocilus method and NARDL model. The results indicate that co-integration is present. This result is supported by the fact that F-static is higher than the upper bound critical value at 1% critical value. Hence, the null hypothesis of no co-integration can be rejected. The results of the symmetric method show that in the long run, the increase in Government Spending and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. The results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect. Also, the results of the VECM model indicated that in each period, 0.078 of the imbalance or short-run error is adjusted towards the long-run equilibrium. Also, the results of the NARDL method show that the positive shock of government spending has a negative effect and the negative shock of government spending has a positive and significant effect on financial development. The positive trade shock has a positive effect and negative trade shock has a negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that inflation has a significant negative effect on financial development. Finally, the results of the Wald test show that the effects of government spending shocks and trade are asymmetric in both the short and long run. The step toward achieving the research objectives is to examine the stability of the long-run parameter of the NARDL model by using the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of Square (CUSUMSQ) tests following Pesaran et al., (1997). If the plots of these tests statistics stay within the critical bound of 5% level of significance, the null hypothesis of all coefficients of the regression are stable and cannot be rejected. Therefore, it implies that the coefficients in the error-correction model are stable. As observed in Figure (3), the plots of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ statistics stay within the critical 5% bound for the period.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
The present study evaluated the symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of fiscal policy and trade development on financial development in Iran Using annual data over the period 1973-2017. For this purpose, the Johansen-Jocilus method and (NARDL) model was used to estimate. The results show that in the long run, the increase in government spending (fiscal policy) and inflation have a significant negative effect on financial development. Also, the results show that trade development has a positive and significant effect on financial development.

Abstract Abstract Expanded
 
1- INTRODUCTION
 
The development of the financial system in all economies is one of the challenging issues that has been raised by economists in different decades. According to the latest report of the World Economic Forum (2012), creating an efficient, resilient and fair international financial system can support customers and activate savings and investment, which in turn can lead to economic growth and the creation of jobs and businesses in the economy. In regard to the results of previous studies, a higher growth rate can be expected from any country that has a more efficient financial system. However, despite much evidence to support the positive impact of financial development on economic growth, there is still no consensus on the relationship between the two. In general, there are two main schools of thought on this subject. Proponents of the first school of thought argue that financial development is essential for economic growth (Levin, 1997; and McKinnon, 1973). In contrast, proponents of the second school of thought, who are predominantly neoclassical theorists, argue that the financial sector is not the main driver of growth (Robinson, 1952; Lucas, 1988 and Shan, 2005). Among some researchers such as Patrick (1966), the existence of a two-way causal relationship and others such as Singh (1997), Andersen and Tarp (2003), Ayadi et al. (2015) and Ductor and Grechyna (2015), have found an inverse relationship between financial sector development and economic growth.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Indeed, although most empirical studies in this area confirm the positive impact of financial development on economic growth and show a one-way relationship between financial sector development and the real sector of the economy, but by reviewing the existing literature, it can be inferred that the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables is not definite. According to the existing literature, different results on the causal relationship between these two key variables are affected by the financial development pillars (such as financial stability). Financial stability refers to situations in which financial crises do not generally disrupt the core functions of the financial system. This requires a disciplined government with a stable budget structure that can stabilize the macroeconomy and ultimately provide the conditions for financial stability in the economy.
3- METHODOLOGY
Therefore, the purpose of this article is to study the effect of budgetary stability indicators in the expenditure sector on the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. For this purpose, first considering financial development as a multidimensional index and considering the bank-based financial system in Iran, seven indicators of financial development in the banking sector have been used and then the multidimensional index of financial development using principal component analysis technique (PCA) has been calculated. Then, the causal relationship between the multidimensional index of financial development and economic growth has been analyzed using the bi-variate causality technique based on the vector error correction model (VECM) during the period 1357-1397. Finally, the effect of macroeconomic stability budget indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been studied using the tri-variate causality test based on the above model.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
The results of our estimation show a one-way causal relationship from financial development to economic growth. The findings also indicate that the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is affected by budgetary stability indices. Although the ratio of government debt to central bank, government debt to banks and non-bank financial institutions ratio and current expenditure ratio to GDP, have been able to maintain this direct causal relationship, but in other cases the negative significant impact of these indicators on the causal relationship between these two variables has been confirmed.
5- CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS
The main results of this study show that the performance of government in the expenditure sector (except for three of these indicators) has led to the passivity of the financial sector to the real sector of the economy. Among the important reasons for such results are the short time horizon of governments’ plans, lack of serious efforts to reduce dependence on oil revenues due to the existence of high rents for some stakeholders and the lack of use of new financing methods for the budget deficit.

Abstract  

INTRODUCTION

    Today, new financial technologies (fin techs) have caused extensive changes in the banking industry. In recent years, new financial technologies have become the most popular term in the word of economic markets Investors in these emerging markets are looking to innovate to improve their position. Fintech includes both digital innovations and technology-based business model innovations in the financial sector. Such innovations can disrupt existing industry structures. Fintech development has increased the competitiveness of commercial banks, as digital technologies play an important role in improving the efficiency of services provided by banks. and other financial institutions have played to small companies and private companies. Others believe that the most important question is when these innovations in fintech will affect the implementation and formulation of macroeconomic policies. Therefore, the new financial technology and its effect on the monetary field, its concepts and its nature need to be investigated and explained. In this research, the role of modern financial technology on Monetary Base Usages in Iran will be examined, and in this regard, in order to check the validity of the research hypotheses, the econometric models will be used the data during the period of 2013-2019. This model is estimated by ARDL and OLS approach.
 
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
    Electronic money can be replaced central bank money by in terms of its features. The replacement of central bank money will affect it the most due to the relatively larger volume of banknotes and coins in the definition of M₁ money. The narrow definition of M₁ money includes notes and cash in the hands of the people (C) plus demand deposits (D). Bank cards can increase the volume of money by increasing liquidity and monetary base. According to the theories of monetarists, the increase in money in turn causes an increase in inflation, because with an independent increase in the amount of money, the amount of money paid and the amount of money demanded collides, and as a result, it faces a surplus of money, which causes it to increase. Lack of sufficient supply of goods causes prices to rise.
 
3- METHODOLOGY 
    The patterns examined in this research are as follows The model introduced to evaluate the estimation of modern financial technology on the speed of in come velocity:
 
LV_t=α₀+α₁LV_t-1+α₂LFINTECH_t+α₃LCU_t+α₄LM1_t+U_t                     (1)                       
    The model introduced to check the estimation of the new financial  
technology on the money multiplier:
 
Lm_t=α₀+α₁TREND_t+U_t                                                                                                         (2)                                                                             
 
    The introduced model for evaluation of the estimation of new financial technology on money supply:
 
LM1_t=α₀+α₁LM1_t-1+α₂LFINTECH_t+α₃Lm_t+α₄LCU_t+α₅LRGDP_t+U_t   (3)                           
 
    And at the end, the model introduced to investigate the role of modern financial technology on monetary base usages:
 
LMB_t=α₀+α₁LMB_t-1+α₂LFINTECH_t+α₃Lm_t+α₄LRGDP_t+α₅LRRt+U_t    (4)                           
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION
      The results of the models show that modern financial technology (the sum of mobile and internet transactions) has a positive and significant effect on the money multiplier in Iran, because in the era of modern financial technology, the monetary money multiplier trend has been upward. In examination of the velocity of money, the results show that modern financial technology and money supply have a positive and significant effect on the velocity of money in Iran. but the volume of banknotes and coins in the hands of the people has a negative and significant effect on the velocity of money in Iran, because the increase in the volume of banknotes and cash in people's hands increases the ratio of banknotes and cash to deposits, which in itself leads to a decrease in the velocity of money. In examining the money supply pattern, the results showed that the new financial technology, money multiplier, real gross product and the number of banknotes and coins in the hands of the people have a positive and significant effect on the money supply in Iran. In examining the model of monetary base usages, the results indicated that modern financial technology, monetary multiplier and real gross output have a negative and significant effect on monetary base usages in Iran, but the volume of legal reserves with the central bank has a positive and significant effect on monetary base usages.
 
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS
    The results show that the emergence of new financial technologies increases income velocity, money multiplier and supply of money and on the other hand leads to a decrease monetary base usage.   The expansion of modern financial technologies is necessary due to the reduction of transaction costs, the increase in the speed of transactions, the facilitation of the implementation of banking services and the increase of competition between knowledge-based companies, and the basis for its expansion must be provided.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION One of the important factors that investors consider in their decision is the return and risk of the stock market. During the last three decades, Iran has faced many risks at the macro-level of society. Increasing economic, financial and political risk affects the level of activities and efficiency of markets. A review of studies of the influence of risk on return and risk Tehran Stock Exchange shows that a comprehensive study to investigate the effect of political, economic, and financial risk with capital markets has not been done. Therefore, this study seeks to answer the question of whether political, economic, and financial risks affect stock risk and return? Which risk has the greatest impact on stock market risk and return? This study tries to examine the effect of political, economic, and financial risks on stock risk and return. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Economic risk is a tool for assessing a country's economic strengths and weaknesses. Financial risk is a tool to assess a country's ability to pay its costs. Financial risk is a measure of a country's ability to formally finance, trade, and trade liabilities. Political risk is often defined as the undesirable risk of political events. Increasing economic and financial risk affects the stock market through different channels:  1. Impact on investors' expectations and consequently change in the current value of investment projects, change in profit flow or change in the value of assets of firms admitted to the stock market 2. Engaging the non-productive sectors and thus changing liquidity flows 3. Changes in international financial flows affect the stock market. Political risk can also affect the stock market through the following channels:  1. Changing economic outlook and consequently changing the trust and behavior of consumers and investors that change the demand and performance of markets 2. Political and social protests as a result of any change of government   3. Changing political parties and consequently changing policymakers' positions on legislation for working-class or upper-class voters   4. Supporting some industries or geographical areas   5. Change in foreign direct investment   6. Affecting the quality and structure of institutions causes instability in prices and market performance. Many studies have been done in this field. For example, Heidari et al. (2015) studied macroeconomic variables affecting the volatility of stock returns on the Tehran Stock Exchange in different regimes using a nonlinear approach to change the Markov ARMA GARCH multivariate regime. Their results show that the growth rate of GDP has a significant negative effect on the volatility of stock returns. Inflation, money growth rate and exchange rate volatility have a positive and significant effect on different regimes, but oil price volatility has different effects on stock price volatility. Zolfaghari and Sahabi (2016) investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on stock return risk based on Markov regime transfers. The results showed that the industry efficiency index follows regime transitions and responds asymmetrically to external shocks. Also, the risk of return on industry indices are significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long term. The difference between this study and previous studies is that, firstly, none of these studies have examined three types of risks (economic, financial, and political) on the Tehran Stock Exchange simultaneously. Second, most studies have considered the relationship between economic and financial variables and the stock market, and few studies have been conducted on financial and economic risks on the stock market. 3- METHODOLOGY In this research, financial, political, and economic risk indicators in the framework of structural VAR for the period 2008-2019 have been used seasonally. For stock market risk in the form of conditional variance GARCH model is used. The advantage of the SVAR model, unlike the VAR model, is that it has an economic logic based on economic theories. 4- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The results of the Impulse response functions show that as the economic risk decreases, the stock return risk decreases. But the political and financial risk index has little effect on stock return risk. In other words, stock market risk is more affected by economic variables and political and financial variables have not been able to have much effect on market risk. Also, reducing financial risk has increased stock returns, but the impact of economic risk is first negative and then positive. The effect of political risk on stock market returns is volatile and negligible. The effect of stock market risk on market returns is positive. The results of analysis of variance also show that the economic risk index had the most explanations in stock market return and risk. In general, the Tehran Stock Exchange market is more affected by economic variables and financial and political variables have little effect on this market. Therefore, macroeconomic policy-making seems necessary to reduce economic risk.

Abstract Objective: The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between cash retention and investment efficiency in companies in financial crisis with regard to the role of corporate governance.
Methods: The present study is applied and from a methodological point of view, causal (post-event) correlation. The statistical population of the study is all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and using the systematic elimination sampling method, 132 companies were selected as the research sample and were examined over a period of 8 years between 2013 and 2020.
Results: The results of testing the research hypotheses showed that there is a direct relationship between cash retention and investment efficiency. The interaction between corporate governance and cash retention has an adverse effect on investment performance, but ultimately the interaction between corporate governance and cash retention in companies in financial crisis has no effect on investment efficiency.
Conclusion: Managers of companies with well-written and principled plans to manage liquidity resources and accumulation of cash in companies are able to make quick decisions when faced with high-yield investments. Also, having a well-written plan to prevent the occurrence of financial crisis and, if possible, use teams specializing in financial and economic fields to prevent or exit the financial crisis.

Abstract The interaction between the money and capital markets is a crucial topic within Iran's financial system. Despite numerous studies in financial markets, the pathology of this interaction remains largely unexplored. This research aims to identify and systematically analyze the impediments to the interaction between these two markets.Given the highly specialized nature of the research topic and the limited scholarly attention it has received, the study's population is restricted to experts and academics in the field. These individuals possess both accessibility and a deep understanding of the interaction between money and capital markets and its related pathologies in Iran.This research employs a mixed-methods approach. After a systematic literature review and interviews with eight experts, 75 impediments (25 from literature and 50 from interviews) were identified and coded using thematic analysis. Subsequently, these impediments were assessed using a fuzzy Delphi questionnaire distributed among 12 experts, leading to the confirmation of 65 impediments. These were categorized into five dimensions: policymaking, financial institutions, laws and regulations, financial instruments, and structural factors.Finally, an ISM (Interpretive Structural Modeling) questionnaire was distributed to 12 experts. Using the Group ISM method in MATLAB R2021a software, the internal relationships among these impediments were analyzed. The results revealed that policymaking is the most significant hindering factor to market interaction in Iran, followed by financial institutions, laws and regulations, financial instruments, and structural factors, in order of importance. Furthermore, policymaking and laws and regulations were identified as the most influential criteria, while financial institutions, financial instruments, and structural factors were deemed the most dependent criteria. This analysis was also performed at the component level within each dimension.

Abstract Extended abstract 1- INTRODUCTION One of the requirements of economic development is financial development or in other words, development of an efficient financial system to finance value-added activities. an efficient financial system is one of the most important determinants of achieving higher economic growth and development. this issue in the iranian economy is due to the high share of the banking system in financing productive activities more than other countries, and therefore the importance of the banking industry with optimal performance is an inevitable necessity to achieve economic development.
2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK the hypothesis of a silent life is expressed by hicks (1935), who shows in his study that firms with market power enjoy a quiet life, and therefore the managers of such firms make no effort to increase the efficiency of the firm. based on the hypothesis of hicks (1935), berger and henan (1989) first examine such a relationship in the banking industry, they show that managers of firms with market power are able to make no effort to improve cost efficiency, earn high profits. At the heart of filter theory is the fact that when the employer is only aware of whether or not the person being hired has a college degree and no longer has any information about the other characteristics of that person, it is clear that the level of education. it turns out that a college degree will only have the role of distinguishing workers from one another and, in fact, acting as a filter and basis for determining wages, rather than improving the productivity of individuals.
3- METHODOLOGY      Considering that the data used by 17 banks for the period of 2018-2019 have been collected, so they have a composite structure and for this reason, stationary is examined first. their significance has been confirmed by the levin-lin chou and im, sons and shin tests. the next step in modeling is to investigate the possibility of heterogeneity between banks using the f-limer test. in addition, the results of the hausmann test show that the fixed effects model is preferable to random effects.
4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The results of estimation of the models according to different levels of education show that the effect of the adjusted lerner index on profitability is positive and significant. since the increase in the lerner index means an increase in the market power of banks, so the entry of banks and the increase in competition between them in the slang sense implies a decrease in the profitability of banks. on the other hand, the herfindahl-hirschman concentration index has a negative and significant effect on banks 'profitability, and this implies the diversification of banks' income sources in order to optimally distribute risk among different types of income. it should be noted that the ratio of credits to assets has had two-way effects on profitability.
5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The results of the estimates show that the diversification of banks' revenue sources, the increase in the share of the labor force with a bachelor's degree and the increase in the competitiveness index and, in fact, the market power have increased profitability. However, the increase in the size and share of the labor force with postgraduate and higher education in recent years has reduced the profitability of banks. Therefore, improvement the quality of education, increasing the relationship between the real and financial sectors by reducing the volume of rental activities in the economy and finally monitoring the performance of banks in terms of interest paid on deposits and interest on facilities are among the effective policies to increase banking industry profitability.

Abstract 1- INTRODUCTION Because of the exchange fluctuations in Iranian economy, the capital market has undergone significant changes. the petroleum products stock index has the largest share in the capital market price index compared to currency industries. the present study tries to investigate the impact of the exchange rate crisis on the petroleum products stock index in Tehran stock exchange by using the monthly data of the period of 2009:1-2020:3 and using the nonlinear Markov switching approach. 2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Due to the high dependence of foreign exchange reserves on the oil foreign exchange receipts (DEXO) and the sharp decline in these receipts, the central bank has faced limitations in supplying the foreign exchange to the market. thus, reducing the currency resources and supplying the foreign exchange on the one hand, and the growth of the foreign exchange demand on the other hand, have caused the raise in the exchange rate. Economic sanctions have always affected the foreign exchange market, the extent of which depends on the severity of the sanctions. the most important reason for the volatile increase in the exchange rate in recent years is the oil and banking sanctions against our country. economic sanctions will significantly reduce the oil and non-oil exports by restricting the purchasing of the trading partners, and through the channel of declining the foreign exchange earnings will lead to a decrease in the supply of the foreign exchange, and consequently a sharp increase in the exchange rate (devaluation of the national currency). now, we turn to the mechanism of transferring the currency crisis to the stock prices. Changes in the exchange rates can have two different impacts on the stock prices. on the one hand, the increase in the exchange rate (in terms of demand) has led to an increase in the income of the exporting companies (such as refineries, petrochemicals, metals, mining, etc.) and, consequently, their stock prices, and on the other hand (based on the supply), leads to lower profits for the importing companies such as some automotive, pharmaceutical and food industries, as well as the transportation and leads to lower stock prices. In addition to dividends, stock buyers also pay attention to the changes in the company's intrinsic value. the intrinsic value of industries whose creation and operation require the supply of machinery from abroad, is affected by the exchange rate changes. and if a company imports the machinery at lower exchange rates, the intrinsic value of the company will increase as the exchange rate increases, and this intrinsic increase intensifies when the establishment of a similar company is not possible due to the high exchange rate, and if the company's products are produced exclusively, its demand will increase and the company's profit will be higher over time. on the other hand, the share of depreciation cost of machinery in the cost of goods produced by the company decreases. considering the above cases by investors, the demand for the shares of these companies will increase and this will increase the stock prices of these companies. in addition, if the exchange rate decreases over time, it will cause the opposite effect for these companies. 3- METHODOLOGY Recently, the use of the nonlinear models in fluctuation studies has expanded because of this assumption that the linearity of the exchange fluctuations is a large and unrealistic limitation for these studies. this pattern is also known as the pattern of the regime change. the regime change means that a policy variable may show a behavior in one period of time and behave differently in another time period. therefore, if this issue is not considered in the study of the behavior of the variable, the biased results will be obtained. markov rotation models, as the nonlinear models, are able to model the behavioral pattern of the changing status of the dependent variable over time. in nonlinear models, it is assumed that the behavior of the variable on which the modeling is performed is differently and changes in different states. For this purpose, among the various modes of Markov switching model, MSIAH (2) –VAR (2) has been selected. 4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The empirical findings of the study show that only in a regime with high fluctuations (first regime), the exchange rate is the causal relationship of the petroleum products stock index and the increase in the exchange rate has increased the petroleum products stock index, while the petroleum products stock index has no impact on the exchange rate. In addition, the results indicate that the sustainability of the petroleum products stock index in the regime with the low fluctuations (second regime) was more than of the regime with the high fluctuations (first regime). 5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS Due to the results of the present study, there is a one-way relationship between high exchange rate fluctuations and the stock index of petroleum products. investors active in the stock market, in addition to considering how the stock index of petroleum products is affected by other influential domestic variables, should also consider high exchange rate fluctuations and make their decisions. it is suggested that shareholders, in order to benefit from the growth of the capital market index, as soon as the exchange rate rises sharply, buy shares of companies exporting goods, such as refineries, petrochemicals, metals, mining, etc. also, as soon as the exchange rate falls sharply, sell the shares of the mentioned companies and buy the shares of companies independent of the exchange rate in order not to suffer from the risk of a decrease in the stock index.

Abstract Abstract
The current research has been designed to design the overflow model of probability of financial helplessness in Iran's banking system with the approach of multivariate GARCH models.
The statistical population of the includes the banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, which have been analyzed in the period of 2015 to 2019. To calculate them, time series data of banks' stock returns, equity value, book value of liabilities and daily value of assets have been used. The current research has investigated the probability of financial helplessness spillover to other banks by applying the KMV method and the concept of distance to default and by using the VAR model and the multivariate GARCH method (DCC-GARCH).
The results of the research have shown that there is a significant relationship between the financial helplessness risk of banks with each other; Mellat Bank is exposed to the highest risk of helplessness contagion and Parsian Bank shows the least effectiveness. Based on the results of the model, the increase in operational risks of banks, including credit risk and market risk, has a significant effect on increasing the risk of financial helplessness, and this risk can spread to other banks in the banks' communication network and then to the entire economy.

Abstract The purpose of this research is to present an efficient model of government budget allocation to the provinces of the country with a combined approach. The current research is an applied-descriptive study of a quantitative type. The statistical community is documents related to budget allocation in the budgeting system. Fuzzy AHP method was used to weight the factors affecting budgeting. For pairwise comparisons, the prepared questionnaire was provided to 10 experts. In order to prioritize the provinces for budget allocation, AHP and Fuzzy Vicor methods are used. Finally, a multi-objective fuzzy mathematical model is presented, which is solved by the whale algorithm. Also, the results of the multi-objective whale algorithm based on the Pareto archive are compared with the NSGA-II algorithm. The results indicate that Tehran province ranks first and Qom province ranks last in terms of importance for budget allocation. After weighting- Determining the factors and provinces using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy Vicor techniques, the fuzzy multi-objective model of budget allocation for the data of the year 1400 was solved using the proposed whale algorithms and NSGA-II, and the results of the two algorithms and the corresponding values of the documents and The provincial budgeting documents were compared in the program and budget organization, and the results showed that for budget allocation in 1400, the current research model responded to the demand with a lower budget. The comparison of the results of the two algorithms, Nahang and NSGA-II, for the provincial budget of 1400 shows that for the entire budget of the country, the total budget allocated by the NSGA-II algorithm in 1400 is more than the total budget allocated. It is by the whale algorithm.

Abstract In this study, the effect of banks' performance on economic convergence in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019 has been investigated using spatial econometrics. The results of the estimation of the models showed that the ratio of facilities to bank deposits as an indicator of banking performance and monetary indiscipline have a negative and significant effect on economic convergence in the provinces. The speed of convergence of conditional beta estimated by considering bank indices is higher than absolute convergence.
Also, real capital stock, human capital and Internet penetration rate have a positive and significant effect and the rate of economic participation has a negative and significant effect on economic convergence. Investigating the effects of spillovers in 2018 showed that the spillover effect of banking performance on neighboring provinces was positive. Also, with the increase in the distance between the provinces, the spillover effect has decreased, in fact, the spillover effects on the neighboring provinces are more than the provinces that are located at a further distance.

Abstract   1- INTRODUCTION Compulsory loan and its macroeconomic effects, especially its effect on inflation, have always been discussed by economists in Iran. In the current research, the effect of credit compulsory loan on inflation has been evaluated. In order to estimate the model we used data from 1990-2018.  The data have been measured by using vector autoregression (VAR) method. According to the results of the research, it is suggested to replace the policy of granting compulsory loan with other existing policies such as product coupon and purchase remittance in the field of supporting weak households and value chain financing to increasing supply.   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Compulsory loan is a loan that is imposed on the banking system according to the notes of the budget laws and other laws. In other words, banks are responsible for granting assigned loans based on the approvals of authorities outside the banking system. These loans are one of the government's policies to support the vulnerable sections of the society. Every year, in note 16 of the country's budget, a decision is made by the government and the parliament in relation to the debt relief.   3- METHODOLOGY In this research, the data is time series. To analyze the data we choose from various models of the vector autoregression (VAR), which is actually an unrestricted method in econometrics. the vector of variables is a function of its own intervals and other endogenous variables. The vector autoregression method has the following feature: all variables in this model are endogenous, the results of the model in many cases are better than the results of complex models; It is like simultaneous equations, estimation of the model is simple.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION According to the tests, it has observed that a one percent increase in the compulsory loan will increase the consumer price index by 0.4 percent; one percent increase in the nominal interest rate also leads to a 1.25% increase in the consumer price index. Also, the effect of the instant shock of the loan facility rate on the consumer price index and the nominal interest rate is not significant. Next, in the analysis of variance method, the contribution of impulses entered on the model variables was evaluated and it was found that in the 5 first periods (of 10 periods) the largest prediction error of the consumer price index rate variable is explained by the LCPI variable. From the 6th period to the 8th period, however, the explanatory contribution of the nominal interest rate is higher. In the 9th and 10th periods, the compulsory loan rate has the largest contribution in explanation the variable prediction error of the consumer price index.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The budgeting system directly and indirectly affects monetary policies. One of the channels of this influence can be followed in the budget notes. Every year, in some laws of the country, especially in the annual budget laws, the banking system is burdened with tasks, and in some of these cases, due to the preferential rate of these loans, or in other cases, due to the high default of these loans, the country's banking system has suffered imbalance. In this regard, increasing of the monetary base was not only through the growth of banks' balance sheets. Rather, the financial dominance of the government and the impact of financial rulings on the balance sheet of the central bank in the form of borrowing from the central bank, buying government bonds has also caused the expansion of the government's debt and the net foreign assets of the central bank, as well as the monetary base.

Abstract   1- INTRODUCTION The financial crisis of the last decade has impacted financial markets significantly and has led to a remarkable reduction in the financing through the issuance of shares by companies and financial institutions. Additionally, it has given rise to an increase in the amount of debt in capital structure of companies; therefore, many companies are unable to repay their debts during the of crisis, exposing companies to financial distress and opportunistic behaviors   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK  With the occurrence of the global financial crisis, the price of metals, oil, and including the country's oil revenues will decrease, which will initially cause a budget deficit through the reduction of government revenues. With the decrease in government revenues, the amount of government expenditures decreases, and the result is a decrease in investment and a decrease in demand, and the creation of economic imbalances, including recession in the economy. that this effect on exporting companies is more tangible due to the reduction of the general level of prices in the world markets; As a result, warehousing costs and other costs in these companies increase and they face the problem of lack of liquidity; On the other hand, it lowers investors' expectations of the growth and profitability of these companies, which ultimately increases the possibility of not being able to repay the interest and principal of debts. As a result, capital gains in investment companies decrease and put the companies on the verge of financial helplessness. When companies are on the verge of financial helplessness, they may take profit management in order to deal with the crisis and not lose shareholders, in order to make their situation more stable. Also, the management can influence the company's profit through optional accrual items in ways such as early recognition of revenues or postponing the recognition of expenses. What draws the attention of experts to the quality of accruals as an indicator of the quality of profit; The information content of accrual items components, in other words, the separation of accrual items components can provide information about the company's performance, but the market reacts to this information slowly; Therefore, the components of accruals can be considered as an indicator for determining the improvement or deterioration of the company. The aim of this study is the investigation of the impact of the global economic crisis on financial distress, earning management, and the pricing of accruals of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.   3- METHODOLOGY The multivariate regression model and combined data were used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses. In order to show the explanatory power of the variables and to evaluate their importance, paired t-test was used. To test these effects, 104 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2008 to 2020 were studied.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION There is a significant difference between financial helplessness during the period of the global financial crisis and the period after it; therefore, it can be expected that the global financial crisis will expose companies to financial helplessness and even bankruptcy. There is a significant difference between profit management during the global financial crisis and the period after it; when a company is exposed to a financial crisis, the company's management is affected by reducing its rewards, changing management and losing its reputation. Companies to secure financing and attract investors by making the financial performance of companies attractive during the period of financial crises. , have enough motivation to hide the deteriorating performance of the company by resorting to accounting choices, and finally, there is a significant difference between the pricing of accruals during the global financial crisis period and the period after it; Therefore, during the period of the global financial crisis, managers who try to manage profits to hide the dire situation of the company, there is an incentive for them to do this through the manipulation of discretionary accruals that are part of the net profit.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS The findings of this study indicate the impact of the global financial crisis on the financial performance of companies and put them on the verge of financial distress. This occurs due to the inability of financing and as well as the motivation of managers to hide the deteriorating performance of the company by taking measures such as earning management and the pricing of accruals increases. Therefore, during the period of the global financial crisis, managers who attempt to manage profits to hide the dire situation of the company, have the incentive to do so by manipulating discretionary accruals that are part of net profit; Because accruals provide information about the company's performance and because it is an indicator to determine the improvement or deterioration of the company, there is always the motivation to manipulate it within the framework of accounting principles through the time of recognition of revenues and expenses as a tool for managing profits by management.

Abstract Objective: The value relevance of financial statements is of great significance to investors and standard setters. Comparability of accounting is one of the increasing features in the financial reporting system. It generally means that two reporting entities that face the same economic events use the same accounting methods to record underlying transactions. The present research examines whether the accounting comparability among industry peers enhances the value relevance of earnings and book value. This is an important question because both the Financial Accounting Standards Board and the Securities Exchange Commission seek greater comparability in financial reporting.
Research Method: In order to study the subject based on the panel regression model, in the period 2010 to 2020, data of 111 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange were collected and used to test research hypotheses.
Results: The results show that accounting comparability increases the value relevance of earnings, but not book value. Financial statements that are more comparable do better in gaining the trust of users, which increases the value relevance of earnings per share. This means that when companies demonstrate the ability to compare more information than their industry counterparts, investors place a higher value on reported profits. However, the incremental benefits of accounting comparability are attenuated when financial reporting opacity is high or when there exists an internal control material weakness over financial reporting. In contrast, comparability benefits are enhanced when an industry specialist auditor is employed.

Abstract Introduction
Harry Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory is the pioneer of new theories (Markowitz, 1952). Markowitz’s mean-variance analysis is the most common method to solve the asset selection problem. In this method, the variance of asset returns is the only criterion for risk assessment. Unfavorable risks and their measurement are considered in the new financial theories about risk. Value at risk (VaR) is one of the most commonly used indicators in this field (Jorion, 1997, 2000). For the first time, Bamol (1963) proposed the concept of VaR as a new model for risk assessment (Alexander and Baptistab, 2002). But since the early 1990s, it has been widely used as a tool to assess risk. Hanifi (2010), in his first research on the model of VaR in Iran, calculated and compared VaR of different companies in Iran and several foreign countries. In the conducted studies, the portfolio risk of joint-stock companies was calculated by the VaR approach and using different models. The research results were compared with the variance criterion in some of these studies (i.e. a research by Karimi).
Financial markets are among the most important and influential markets of any country. Stock market is considered as one of the important components of financial markets. On the other hand, stock asset is one of the important components of people's asset portfolio; its price usually changes due to the economic fluctuations. It is believed that the demand for maintaining other assets will be influenced by changing the return in one of the components of the asset portfolio; therefore, the people's asset portfolio composition will be changed. In this study, the effect of changes in the stock market returns on the people’s asset portfolio composition was condsidered by using the VaR criterion and the mean-VaR model in different periods of the stock market.

Theoretical framework
In general, two theories are considered more in the literature of financial economics and topics on optimal portfolio determination; Modern portfolio theory and ultra-modern portfolio theory. Optimal asset allocation and optimal portfolio recognition are done according to the optimization based on the mean and variance of asset returns in modern portfolio theory, which was first introduced by Markowitz. Markowitz's mean-variance model, based on a specific level of return rates, obtains optimal values of risk based on minimizing the variance of the total assets in the portfolio (Markowitz, 1952)
In another theory, optimal asset allocation and optimal portfolio recognition are done based on the relationship between return and unfavorable risk criteria. Ultra-modern portfolio theories explain the behavior of investors and portfolio selection based on the relationship between return and unfavorable risk. In this theory, unfavorable risk (fluctuations lower than the investor's target rate of return) is defined as a risk measurement index. From the viewpoint of the theory, risk as an emotional status is more representative of the fear of an unfavorable event such as loss or less performance than expectations or lack of access to the desired goal. So, unfavorable risk measures can explain it mathematically in a better way (Adami, 2012). Value at risk (VaR) is one of these measures. The risk of assets is calculated using VaR approach in the Mean-VaR model and it is used in the model.


Research Methodology
The study’s population was consisted of the price of assets, such as land, housing, gold coins, currency, stocks, bonds and bank deposits. These assets’ prices were extracted from the website of Iranian Central Bank and Statistics Center from 1991 to 2021. Then, the return and standard deviation of return on assets were calculated and used in the study. Dickey-Fuller test was used to review the stationarity of time series. Most macroeconomic variables are correlated of the first degree (integrated of 1). It is expected that data to be fixed after one time differentiation. Since the data used in this study is in the form of growth rate, it is expected that the data to be fixed. The results indicated that all the data are fixed as expectations. In order to conduct the research, after calculating the return, expected return and correlation coefficients of return on assets by Markowitz model, the asset risk with the 95% confidence level and the short-term (one-year), medium-term (10-year) and long-term (30-year) time horizons. year) were estimated using the VaR model (parametric method). Statistical calculations were performed and the results were extracted by using mean-VaR model.

Conclusion
In order to select the optimal portfolio, the results of the statistical analysis indicated that the asset portfolio composition is changed due to the change in the ratio of return to risk during the entire period with respect to different time horizons. People's asset portfolio mostly includes stocks and housing during the period when stock returns are positive. Although there is a very high risk for investing in stocks, but it has a high share in people's investment portfolio due to the higher risk-return ratio in this period. At the same time as the stock returns become negative, a most change is occured in asset portfolio composition. So that stocks are completely removed from people's portfolios and are replaced by bonds and bank deposits. Under this condition, the entire asset portfolio almost consistes of the bonds and bank deposits in the short-term period.
These two assets, in addition to low risk, have consistent returns for investors. The results represented that the change in stock returns lead to changing the asset portfolio composition in different periods. Since there is not a study to investigate and determine the people’s asset portfolio composition in different conditions of the stock market, it is not possible to compare this study’s results with other studies

Abstract The global crude oil market has experienced a significant downturn since the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus in December 2019. Considering the importance of safe haven asset in recent years, this paper empirically investigates the time-varying correlations between Bitcoin and oil
markets to examine whether Bitcoin is a safe haven asset for the international crude oil markets during the 2014-2021 (daily) with emphasis on COVID-19 period).
The results of the time-varying correlations obtained through the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC-GARCH) model show that during the period of investigation (2014-2020), there is a positive conditional correlation between Bitcoin and crude oil, and this positive conditional correlation increase during the period of the Covid-19 virus. This result indicates that Bitcoin cannot be accepted as a safe haven for crude oil fluctuations and can only be considered as a diversifier in the asset portfolio.
Keywords: Crude Oil, Bitcoin, Covid- 19, Safe Haven, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC-GARCH)

Abstract This research analyzes the dynamic effects of global steel shocks (supply and demand), global economic activity levels, and exchange rate fluctuations on the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group during (2006–2024). Given the presence of structural breaks and cyclical shifts in Iran’s macroeconomic variables, a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression model with a Bayesian approach (Gibbs sampling algorithm) was employed.The results indicate that global steel demand (as a proxy for global economic growth) contributes most significantly to explaining fluctuations in the stock returns of Iran’s basic metals group. Exchange rate shocks also affect stock returns through increased domestic-currency export values and liquidity inflows into equity markets. Conversely, global steel supply exhibits the weakest effect, attributable to the relative stability of global production and Iran’s export constraints under sanctions. Furthermore, global economic activity shocks have had a negative impact on stock returns due to intensified sanctions.The combined effects of simultaneous shocks show amplification patterns. For instance, the interaction of exchange rate shocks with other shocks generates positive effects on stock returns, while the combination of global economic activity shocks with other shocks reinforces negative effects. During the JCPOA period, sanctions relief had a significant positive effect on the stock returns of the basic metals group.Based on these findings, policy recommendations include managing key shocks (global steel demand and exchange rates) and strengthening economic diplomacy to mitigate the negative impacts of global economic activity shocks during sanctions and to seize opportunities similar to the JCPOA.

Abstract Financial development in banks, as the most important pillar of Iran's financing system, requires identifying business opportunities and facilitating the exchange of goods and services through diversification of financing methods and focusing on improving the effectiveness of the resource allocation system with the aim of attracting Customer satisfaction.
Achieving these goals requires the use of integrated management systems that simultaneously focus on financial, marketing and decision-making issues. Credit solutions such as inland letters of credit are especially important in the field of indirect provision of funds needed for those active in industrial markets, which are referred to industrial customers.
In this research, based on the grounded theory methods and the multi-criteria decision-making combined approach, the criteria for segmenting industrial customers applying for inland letters of credit and the internal and external factors affecting the development of services to this group of customers were prioritized. The findings of the research show that if the bank focuses on eliminating the weaknesses in the system in order to take advantage of significant environmental opportunities in the business environment of customers, it will have a smoother path for financial development and the realization of its financial goals and policies.

Abstract In the past two years, the Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced severe fluctuations and a significant decline due to various factors. One of the important factors is the herding behavior of investors, Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange exhibit emotional and sometimes irrational behaviors towards buying and selling orders as well as market growth and recession, which can lead to herding behavior. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of herding behavior of investors on stock price fluctuations and industry indices. The target population of the study is all active and accepted companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange whose shares have been traded from 2015 to 2021, and a sample of 156 companies has been selected from among 18 industries using systematic elimination method. In order to collect the required financial data and information, reported data from financial statements and audited financial statements of listed companies for a period of 7 years have been used and analyzed. Various statistical tests such as Limmer and Haseman F-test, Breusch-Pagan test, and panel data test have been used for inferential analysis of variables, and the results have been estimated using time series regression models and panel data, indicating that the herding behavior of investors has a significant impact on stock price fluctuations and industry indices. Additionally, these emotional behaviors and decision-making of investors can lead to increased volatility of returns and market instability.

Abstract   1- INTRODUCTION The business strategy of companies plays an essential role in achieving the company's goals, and strategies should be adopted based on the company's ability, resources, and goals. Choosing the wrong strategy can jeopardize the interests of the stakeholders and the company. As a result, the adoption of strategy by managers should be monitored. Meanwhile, corporate governance with two arms of non-commissioned managers and the audit committee as tools for monitoring the performance of managers and the overall performance of companies, is probably effective in adopting business strategy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide new evidence about the relationship between the quality of the board of directors and the audit committee as two fundamental pillars of corporate governance, in relation to the aggressive business strategy of commercial units.   2- THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK One of the variables influencing the policies and performance of companies is business strategy. Strategy includes a set of decision-making rules that direct the organization's overall behavior. These decision-making rules determine the organization's relationships with its external environment. In general, business strategy consists of integrated actions in search of competitive advantage. In the organizational literature, two major, different and complementary concepts are examined for the survival and progress of organizations, those two concepts are management and governance. In the concept of management, the main emphasis is on the methods of achieving organizational goals, while the concept of governance is a supervisory concept. The characteristics of the board of directors of companies refer to the mechanisms of corporate governance and the role of board members in monitoring the affairs of companies. Corporate governance is a system that not only enhances the relationship between different parties (shareholders, managers and investors of the company), but also ensures the availability of appropriate resources among competing users. In addition, it provides structures through which firm goals are formulated and ways to achieve goals as well as performance reviews. The purpose of creating an audit committee is to create a set of experts and specialists to monitor management activities on behalf of company owners.The audit committee is a sub-committee under the framework of corporate governance, in which the board of directors assigns some supervisory responsibilities to it. The board of directors and the audit committee are the main pillars of corporate governance and have the duty of fiduciary and protecting the interests of shareholders and supervise the implementation of the company's internal controls.     3- METHODOLOGY The current research is applied and from the methodological point of view, the correlation is causal type (post-event). The statistical population of the research is all the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange, and using screening, 131 companies were selected as the research sample and were investigated in the 10-year period between 1390 and 1399.   4- RESULTS & DISCUSSION The results of the research hypotheses test showed that in the first hypothesis, the quality of the board of directors has a direct effect on the aggressive business strategy of the companies. The results of the second hypothesis also showed that the quality of the audit committee has no effect on the aggressive business strategy of the companies.   5- CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS Companies that want to progress and surpass their competitors in the market by choosing an aggressive strategy and using new operational plans and new technologies, actually accept a kind of risk and hazard that should be in the shadow of principled and accurate planning, so such companies They require strict internal controls that are the result of managers' careful supervision and strong and quality corporate governance, and the results obtained show that improving the quality of the board of directors can have a positive impact on choosing an aggressive business strategy.