##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##

علی فقه مجیدی زهرا ضرونی

چکیده

انتخاب نظام ارزی از طریق اثرگذاری بر بسیاری از متغیرهای اقتصادی می‌تواند نقش بسزایی در شرایط موجود و آینده اقتصاد هر کشوری ایفا نماید. همچنین، انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز نقش اساسی در سیاست‌های کلان اقتصادی در کشورهای درحال توسعه دارد. در این مطالعه به بررسی عوامل اقتصادی و سیاسی مؤثر بر انتخاب رژیم¬های ارزی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد بالاتر و پایین‌تر از میانگین در دوره زمانی 2014-1990 با استفاده از روش لاجیت و پروبیت پرداخته شده است. به‌طورکلی نظریه¬های رایج در انتخاب نظام ارزی نظریه انتخاب منطقه بهینه ارزی OAC، نظریه اقتصاد سیاسی و فرضیه بحران ارزی هستند که در این پژوهش بر تئوری OCA و اقتصادی سیاسی تأکید شده است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر این است که عوامل OCA بر انتخاب رژیم¬های نرخ ارز در کشورهای در حال توسعه تأثیر¬گذار هستند. متغیرهای اندازه اقتصاد، تورم و توسعه مالی احتمال انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز شناور را افزایش می‌دهد و متغیرهای توسعه اقتصادی، میزان باز بودن تجاری و شوک‌های پولی احتمال انتخاب آن را کاهش می‌دهند. به‌طورکلی می‌توان گفت که متغیر توسعه اقتصادی در هر دو گروه از کشورهای در حال توسعه بیشترین اثر را در انتخاب نرخ ارز ثابت دارد و تجارت خارجی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد پایین‌تر از میانگین و شوک پولی در کشورهای در حال توسعه با درآمد بالاترین از میانگین، کمترین اثر را در انتخاب نرخ ارز ثابت داشته‌اند.

جزئیات مقاله

مراجع
[1] Al-shammari, N. (2007). Exchange Rate Policy and International Trade. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics,Vol. (2), 23-66.
[2] Amali, J., Brothers, H., (2003), Selection of the foreign exchange system and effective exchange rate changes in the Islamic Republic, Journal of Iranian Economic Research, Vol. 15, 121-141. (In persian)
[3] Amit, Gh. (2014). a comparison of exchange rate regime choice in emerging markets with advanced and low income nations for 1999–2011. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 33, 358–370
[4] Asadi, P., Bahrami, J., (2013), The Political Economy of the Foreign Exchange System of the Oil Countries, Journal of Iranian Energy Economics, No. 9, 29. (In persian)
[5] Aziz, N. Berdiev et al., (2011). The political economy of exchange rate regimes in developed and developing countries. European Journal of Political Economy,Vol 28, 38–53.
[6] Bernard,W., Leblang, D. (1999). Democratic Institutions and Exchange Rate Commitments. International Organization, Vol. 53(1), 71-97.
[7] Bleaney, M., Francisco, M. (2005). the choice of exchange rate regime: how valid is the binary model?. CREDIT Research Paper, No. 05/02.
[8] Bleaney, F., Fransisco, M. (2002). On the existence of mini-max martingale measures. Math. Finance, 12 1–21.
[9] Blomberg, S., Frieden, E. (2005). Sustaining Fixed Rates: The Political Economy of Currency Pegs in Latin America. Journal of Applied Economics,Vol. 8
[10] Bodea, C. (2010). the political economy of xed exchange rate regimes: the experience of post -communist countries. European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 26, 248-264
[11] Boyer, R. (1978). Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention. Journal of Political Economy,Vol. 86, 1045-55.
[12] Broz, J. (2002). Political system transparency and monetary commitment regimes. International Organization, Vol. 56, 861–868.
[13] Calderón, C., Schmidt-Hebbel, K. (2008). Choosing an exchange rate regime. Central Bank of Chile working paper, No. 494.
[14] Dreyer, J. (1978). Determinants of exchange-rate regimes for currencies of developing countries: some preliminary results. World Development,Vol. 6(4), 437-445
[15] Dominating, S., (2007), International Finance, Nashr nay, p.261. (In persian)
[16] Edvards, S., Savastani, M. (1999(. Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know? The National Bureau of Economic Research,
[17] Fejzaj,E. (2014). Determination of Exchange Rate Regimes in an unstable economy. International Journal of Innovative Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol. 3
[18] Frieden, J. & Stein, E. (2001). Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America, J. Frieden and E. Stein, eds., The Currency Game : Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University Press", 25-45.
[19] Frieden, J., Stein, E. (2001). The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview. In: Frieden, J., Stein, E. (Eds.), the Currency Game: Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1–20.
[20] Gartner, M. (1993). Macroeconomics under Flexible Exchange Rates, P. 120.
[21] Henderson, D. (1979). Financial Policies in Open Economies. American Economic Review,Vol. 69, 2.
[22] Holden, P., Holden, M., Suss, E. (1979). The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, 61(3), 327-33
[23] Hosmer, D., Lemeshow, S. (1980). goodness-of-fit test for the multiple logistic regression model. Communications in Statistics, 1069
[24] Hossain, M. (2009). Institutional development and the choice of exchange rate regime: a cross-country analysis. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,Vol 23, 56–70.
[25] Hosmer, D., Lemeshow, S. (1989). Applied ¸logistic Regression, Wiley, New York,
[26] Juhn G, Mauro P (2002) Long-run determinants of exchange rate regimes: a simple sensitivity analysis IMF working paper No. 02/.104
[27] Kamijani, A., Aghamir, K., (2001), Passing through the multiple currency system to the system of exchange rates: Concerns and achievements, Journal of Parliament and Research, Vol.(33) 65.(In persian)
[28] Kenen, P. (1969). Theory of Optimum Currency Areas: An Eclectic View, In: Mundell, R., Swoboda, A. (Eds): Monetary Problems in the International Economy. University of Chicago Press.
[29] Kydland, F.& Prescott, E. (1977). Rules Rather than Discretion: the Inconsistency of Optimal Plans, Journal of Political Economy,Vol 85, 473-91.
[30] Levy-Yeyati, E., Sturzenegger, F., Reggio, I. (2002). on the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes. CIF working paper, No. 11/2002.
[31] Markiewicz, A. (2006). Choice of exchange rate regime in transition Economic:an empiri cal analysis. Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.34, 484-498
[32] McFadden, D. (1974). Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Analysis. in Frontiers in Econometrics. Ed. P. Zarembka, 105–142
[33] Mc Kinnon, R. (1981). Theory of Optimum Currency Area. American Economic Review, Vol.4, 717-725.
[34] Melvin, M. (1985). The Choice of an Exchange Rate Systems and Macroeconom Stability. Journal of Money. Credit and Banking, VoL. 17, 467-478.
[35] Mohamed, D. (2010). The choice of exchange rate regimes in the MENA countries: a probit analysis. Int Econ Econ Policy , Vol. 8, 275–305.
[36] MF, (1999). Exchange Rate Arrangements and Currency Convertibility: Developments and Issues, World Economic and Finance Surveys.
[37] Mundel, R. (1969). Toward a Better International Monetary System. Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol.3, 625-648.
[38] Papaioannou, M. (2003). Determinants of the choice of exchange rate regimes in six Central American countries: an empirical analysis. IMF working paper, Vol. 03/59.
[39] Pedro, O. (2008). The determinants of the choice of exchange rate regimes in Latin America: a mixed multinomial logit approach. Department of Applied Economics University of Oviedo
[40] Poirson, H. (2001). How do countries choose their exchange rate regime?. IMF Working Paper, NO. 01/46, 152
[41] Savvides, A. (1998). Trade Policy and Income Inequality: New Evidence. Economics Letters, Vol. 61, 365-372
[42] Sfia, M. (2007). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: a Probit Analysis William Davidson Institute Working Paper,Nol 899
[43] Shahrat Jahromi, M., Golzarian Pour, S., (2013), Explaining factors affecting the choice of the foreign exchange system in Iran and other OPEC member countries, Journal of Economics and Modeling of Shahid Beheshti University, No. 13, 35-59. (In persian)
[44] Von Hagen, J., Zhou, J. (2007). The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: a multinomial panel analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 26, 1071–1094.
[45] Von Hagen, J., Zhou, J. (2005). The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, No. 26(7), 1071- 1094
ارجاع به مقاله
فقه مجیدیع., & ضرونیز. (۱۳۹۷-۰۲-۱۰). بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر انتخاب رژیم نرخ ارز در کشورهای در حال توسعه. پژوهش های اقتصاد پولی، مالی, 25(15), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.22067/pm.v25i15.50904
نوع مقاله
پژوهشی